Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

Trump Announces a 15 Percent Tariff Deal With the EU But There Is No Deal

Two Problems: Trump is exaggerating the deal. And Ursula has no signing authority.

What’s In the Alleged Deal?

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump and EU Reach Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War

Trump said the U.S. would set a baseline tariff of 15% for European goods, including automobiles. He said the EU had agreed as part of the deal to buy $750 billion worth of energy products from the U.S. and invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.

“Today’s deal creates certainty in uncertain times,” von der Leyen said. She said the 15% level would apply for “the vast majority of EU exports” including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The 15% level “is the best we could get,” she said.

The terms disclosed on Sunday suggest that 15% is likely a new minimum tariff level for most American trading partners. Economists and trade analysts say that tariffs at that level will have an effect on companies’ decisions and are expected to contribute to higher prices for Americans, but won’t stop global trade flows.

They are not at the level where the global economy burns down,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, senior trade adviser at Aurora Macro Strategies.

Neither side published the text of their agreement on Sunday. Although both presidents said that the EU’s baseline tariff would be 15%, they appeared to have different interpretations of some of the details.

Trump indicated in comments to the press that his global steel-and-aluminum tariffs, which are currently at 50%, would remain unchanged. Von der Leyen said the two had agreed to a quota system that would keep tariffs lower for some EU metals exports to the U.S.

Trump also said the EU had agreed “to open up their countries to trade at zero tariff.” Von der Leyen said the two had agreed to zero-for-zero tariffs for certain strategic products including aircrafts and their parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment and certain agricultural products, among others, and said the two sides would work to add more products to that list.

Details on Trump’s other trade deals have also been scant. The administration has released no documentation for deals it claims to have reached with the Philippines or Japan, and details released of the Indonesia deal last week remain incomplete. The U.K.’s framework, released in May, also left some big items unresolved, like steel tariff levels.

Economic Illiterates Try to Explain Tariffs

It’s because US businesses and consumers pay the tariff, you economic illiterate.

Trump said $750 billion a year in energy. Yahoo!Finance has more believable numbers.

Trump said the EU will invest $600 billion in the U.S. and buy $750 billion of U.S. energy, with “vast amounts” of American weapons also in the mix. He also said the EU will be “opening up their countries at zero tariff.”

Von der Leyen said the 15% rate was “all inclusive,” but Trump said later that it didn’t apply to pharmaceuticals and metals though it does for autos.

She later confirmed that the $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases would come over the next three years, while adding that both sides will drop tariffs to zero on aircraft, plane parts, certain chemicals, and chip equipment as well as some farm products, generic drugs and raw materials. No decisions have been made on a rate for wine and spirits, she added.

But von der Leyen also introduced some uncertainty by saying the 15% rate does apply to pharmaceuticals while also suggesting more details will come from the U.S. and that pharma overall is “on a different sheet of paper.”

Color me extremely skeptical even if spread over 3 years. 10 years seems more likely. $65 billion per year is currently status quo.

Is This a Good Deal?

On average no. It is idiotic to impose a 15 percent tax on US business on US consumers and businesses and call it good.

But there will be winners and losers. In general US exporters gain. US importers and consumers lose.

This is all premature because no one agrees on the details.

Is This Deal Better Than Expected?

Perhaps.

Given that Trump threatened much worse, he could have done far more damage than putting a 15 percent tax on US consumers and businesses.

Spotlight Japan

Cracks Widen on Japan Deal

Trump bragged about a sovereign wealth fund saying $550 billion was a “signing bonus”. “Japan brought down their tariffs. They gave us $550 billion upfront. We get 90 percent of the profit, they get 10 percent.”

A Slideshow Issued by Japan’s Cabinet Office contradicted Lutnick by showing the ratio of profit distribution would be “based on the degree of contribution and risk taken by each party”.

Mireya Solís, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The Financial Times that the deal contains “nothing inspiring,” as “both sides made promises that we can’t be sure will be kept” and “there are no guarantees on what the actual level of investments from Japan will be.”

Some are thus beginning to wonder whether Trump’s avowed “largest deal in history” even technically counts as a deal at all.

Can Ursula Sign a Deal for the EU?

The answer is no.

She is the chief negotiator. Then what?

  • Negotiation: The European Commission, through the Trade Commissioner, then leads the negotiations with the partner country.
  • Council Approval for Signing: After the negotiations are completed and an agreement is reached, the Commission submits the proposal to the Council of the EU, which must adopt a decision authorizing the signing of the agreement.
  • European Parliament Consent: The signed agreement is then sent to the European Parliament for its consent. The Parliament has the power to approve or reject the agreement, but it cannot amend it.
  • Final Conclusion: Only after the European Parliament has given its consent can the Council adopt the final decision to formally conclude the agreement.
  • Ratification (for “Mixed” Agreements): In some cases, where the trade agreement covers areas of shared competence between the EU and its member states, the agreement also needs to be ratified by the national parliaments of each EU member state before it can be fully implemented. 

There Is No Deal

Ultimately European Parliament will have the final say. And in some issues national governments have a say as well.

She agreed to buy energy the EU was largely going to buy anyway. Nothing is on paper. It will take many years to get something signed.

Ursula bought herself a lot of time. Well done!

There will not be a deal until European Parliament and the US Senate sign official papers.

There is a who bunch of crowing over pure BS tonight. Coming up is the big stall.

Enforcement Mechanism

Even if the EP signs off on this, what is the enforcement mechanism?

There is none. The EU does not import from the US. Countries don’t trade, individual do.

Who is going to force some German importer to buy more US cars? More LNG? More anything?

The answer is no one. The EU can agree to tariff levels, and perhaps weapons, but nothing else.

Related Posts

March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture

I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.

May 31, 2025: Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent

Tariff madness continues.

July 8, 2025: Copper Spikes to Record High After Trump’s 50 Percent Tariff Announcement

This copper tariff is seriously idiotic. And it follows on the heels of idiotic tariffs on steel.

The US will be the high cost producer of Steel, Copper, Aluminum, cars, everything. A few thousand manufacturing and mining jobs return. Call it 100,000 jobs if you like.

We will lose 1,000,000 jobs elsewhere in the process. Many small businesses will go bankrupt.

There is no advantage to paying the most in the world for Steel, Copper, Aluminum, and cars.

It’s idiotic to try to bring all manufacturing back to the US. All that will do is make US the high-cost producer of everything.

July 23, 2025: The Detroit Automakers Are Upset With Trump’s Japan Trade Deal

The deal will lower tariffs on car imports from Japan to 15% from 25%.

The market expects Trump to back off those tariffs and so do I. But some reshoring efforts are underway.

GM and Ford will either eat those costs or pass them on.

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Comments to this post are now closed.

87 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Dave Smith
Dave Smith
10 months ago

I do not believe TACO understands trade deficit. When I was employed, I provided labor to my employer for wages, Under Trumps definition, my employer ran a hundred per cent trade deficit with me. My lawn grows; I buy a lawn mower from a hardware store; I run a trade deficit with the hardware store and the store, a trade surplus. That situation needs me to tariff the lawn mower, increasing my cost. Taco is only looking at the money and not the goods and services. While my employer did run a monetary deficit with me, he used the fruits of my labor to improve his profit potential, and I used my lawn mower to keep the grass looking nice.

We run a trade deficit on many products with Canada, one being aluminum. We use the aluminum to make foil, beverage cans, and a host of other products. Canada loses as it holds US dollars that are constantly losing value and we recycle the metal to remake similar products, presumably for a profit.

I believe TACO is making trade waves that are not well thought out. They are destroying our international relationships, reducing trade volumes thus economic activity, punishing US consumers with higher prices, and potentially adding revenue to the federal treasury which will most likely be spent on worthless ventures further destroying the nation’s wealth.

I am all for returning economic activity to the US, but not via punitive actions, rather create a business climate that attracts economic activity.

JCH1952
JCH1952
10 months ago

Can Germany force a laid off German auto factory worker to buy an American-made Ford? Meanwhile, Atlanta FedNow Q2 GDP growth forecast went up to 2,9%.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago

Why would anyone even bother to negotiate with Trump?

He breaks his own deals at a whim…

<

Pokercat
Pokercat
10 months ago

It’s doubtful that Trump will finish his term so other countries just have to wait him out or simply play the game and make unverifiable agreements that make Trump happy as he can flaunt them to the press. We all know Trump has no issues lying to the world including his stupid maga cult.

86/47 asap

njbr
njbr
10 months ago

Tacos for breakfast, lunch and dinner

Every meal is a winner!

Greg
Greg
10 months ago

Trump is setting up US manufacturing for failure.
US manufacturers are forced to pay 50% more for steel & aluminum.
US car manufactures might as well decamp to Japan or the EU.
A case of Tariffs 101.

Greg
Greg
10 months ago

Also, the stumbling block finishing a trade deal with Canada is that Canada refuses to pay Trump’s tribute fee.

David Heartland
David Heartland
10 months ago

It is maddening that this Article shares HIGHLY TECHNICAL details, reading like a Legal Instrument (I have a degree in Contract Law)….just ridiculous for most regular folks…all of those “murky words.”

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
10 months ago

By now don’t people see this is all WWE distraction from what is really happening in the background?
BRICS+ on the rise, dedollarization, dollar lost almost all it’s worth, rising homeless rising up the social ladder, too much debt, insiders selling their stock t record pace.
ICE has police state powers, detention camps being built, brown skinned people now replace Muslims which replaced Black rappers as the phantom menace.
Israel is losing the social media battle worldwide and every politician except Massie has an AIPAC guy.
Eventually we go to war, tight media controls, sweet propaganda, and protestors go straight to the camps.
Gaza and Ukraine were excellent models for such magnificent social achievements.

Art Last
Art Last
10 months ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

Fact: the US Treasury is buying back its own debt. Fact: US Bond yields are CAPPED. Translation: the Fed is surreptitiously printing money and buying the US government’s debt because practically no one else is, except the 401K pension funds that automatically and mindlessly buying this worthless paper. And we’re all sitting around acting like none of this is happening.

David Heartland
David Heartland
10 months ago
Reply to  Art Last

We are AWARE of the actions and dimly aware of the DETAILS which are scant: but the real issue is that we feel as if there is nothing that we can do. PROTESTING fails, Bad Press (hardly any); VERY clearly corruption is existing with IMPUNITY. We are POWERLESS. We do not MATTER.

Art Last
Art Last
10 months ago

Let me see. In whose interest it would be to inculcate people that they don’t matter?
Right…

JohnF
JohnF
10 months ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

Follow The Money! – “distraction from what is really happening”

Distractions From His Campaign Promises – Wag the Dogs of War!

Increasing ‘War’ Budget By 13.4% to $1.01 trillion – No One Is Attacking Us – So There Is No ‘Defense’ To It – While Gutting Social Programs For The Poor.

USAID = Media Propaganda – Coups – Color Revolutions – Regime Change – BioWeapons – War/Drug Profit$$$

NATO – NORTH America Terrorist Organization Vs BRICS – Global SOUTH (WW3 Ongoing Since Obama Ukraine Coup 2014)

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnF
JohnF
JohnF
10 months ago
Reply to  JohnF

All The ‘Presidents’ Are Following Same Plan.!

‘Poppy’ Bush’s ‘New World Order’ (1991) – USA – World’s Only Remaining Superpower – Wolfowitz Doctrine 1992!

Post-Bush/Cheney Patriot Act (2001) + Post-Obama/Biden NDAA (2011) = UniParty Warmonger$$$

USAID = Media Propaganda – Coups – Color Revolutions – Regime Change – BioWeapons – War/Drug Profit$$$

JohnF
JohnF
10 months ago
Reply to  JohnF

While The CIA ‘Operation Mockingbird’ Media System Tells The Public

The BRICS Are ‘Bluffing’ About Using WMD On US/UK/Israel/NATO

JohnF
JohnF
10 months ago
Reply to  JohnF

Going For The ‘Black’ Gold (Oil) In Middle East – Because There Is No Gold In Ft Knox – We’re Keeping the ‘Oil’ in Syria, Trump (2019

In 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu wrote a book called ‘Fighting Terrorism’ where he listed 7 countries that needed ‘Regime
Change’ to ‘Secure Israel’. Those countries were Iraq,Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.

In 2001, This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and – Finishing off, Iran.”
Gen W. Clark

JohnF
JohnF
10 months ago
Reply to  JohnF

Now You’re Up To Date – Finishing off, Iran – Leads To Outright WW3 With The BRICS Nations – WMD.

Dave Smith
Dave Smith
10 months ago

Aren’t these trade deals essentially treaties requiring senate ratification?

whirlaway
whirlaway
10 months ago

“Who is going to force some German importer to buy more US cars? More LNG?”

Erm… how about if an LNG pipeline from eastern Europe to Germany “unexpectedly” becomes “non-operational”?!

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago

US population is 330 million. The census bureau expect it to grow to 365 million by 2100 under medium immigration policy. Under restrictive policy to 320 million. With high immigration policy the US population can reach 440 million by 2100.
EU population is 450 million. With the UK, after Brexit, 520 million. Pew report. Under high immigration population might stay the same. Under restrictive immigration policy EU + the UK population might decline by 100/200 million. The bottom line: in 2100 China the EU + UK, Japan and the US population might decline by around 1T. The US is the only place that have a potential to grow.

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Engel
Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

If the EU had negotiated quickly like the UK did, they would now have a 10% tariff instead of 15%.

David Heartland
David Heartland
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

I am amazed that you find something to be happy about with Tariffs. Are you a Government Official with special exemptions? Askin’ for a friend.

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago

He still thinks that the EU is paying the tariff because Trump says so.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

smart.

Stu
Stu
10 months ago

While I agree there is no signed off deal, the chief negotiator signed off on the deal. This is Her job is it not? There is no way they pull the rug out from under her efforts. It will all get done as stated pretty much IMO, and it’s just behind the scenes bickering.
They need and desire everything in the deal. The cost is inline, the qty is inline, and I would guess the EU/Europe would be very happy getting this massive energy situation behind them and with ally’s and not enemies.
She would have agreed, if she thought for a second it old be rejected. You think you see turmoil now, let this get blocked, and all hell will break loose… this is done, and just needs some small adjustments in verbiage.

QTPie
QTPie
10 months ago

Energy is a fungible commodity, If we sell $750 billion of it to customer X, it simply means that we sell less of it to customer Y, who then increases their purchases of energy from other sources. It does not necessarily mean that we increased our overall sales of energy commodities any higher were it not for the “agreement” with customer X.

Bill
Bill
10 months ago

TDS

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago
Reply to  Bill

If you are correct, why waste your time visiting and promoting his work?

Carl
Carl
10 months ago

Can’t remember the last time I boughtt something from the EU. So I doubt the average American will be paying any of these tariffs. As you assert.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago

Individual co behave differently depend on restriction imposed on them. When tariff are 15% they will buy twice as much as at 30%. If tariffs will be stable at 15% they will know the rules of the game. To avoid tariffs they have to build plants in the US. There is more cohesion in the EU. They rearm themselves to be less dependence on the US. Ukraine and Iran are closer to them and in many major European cities 20%/40% of young people under 18Y had at least one immigrant parent or were immigrant themselves. The E3: Germany, France and the UK have similar foreign policy. They diverge from Trump’s policies. NATO is important, but America first force the E3 to show its independence from the US.

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Engel
+888
+888
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

If you think building in the ᴜꜱ will be cheaper despite 15%…

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago
Reply to  +888

Promises don’t matter. They promised $10T, but when they will face reality they will invest only $3T/$5T and that’s good enough. Germany, the UK and Japan already invested in the US for decades. Tariffs might accelerate the pace. They invest to win, to expand, to make profit. To bring dollars home.

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Engel
David Heartland
David Heartland
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

You ARE making a good point. When time proceeds, everyone will cheat.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago

Saying there is no deal is incorrect since both parties have publicly announced it and have confirmed the framework, the core components and commitments. Those areas are firm. However the deal is not signed yet and certain areas such as agriculture have yet to be finalized as well enforcement mechanisms. Getting it through he EU Parliament might be a problem of course but I must point out that European business leaders do not like paying tariffs but they prefer knowing they have to pay 15% to knowing if the deal doesn’t go through they will have to pay much much more. The Germans especially have been pushing for certainty over uncertainly as have other business leaders. The markets over here are rallying showing that the stakeholders believe the deal will go through and that the trade war has been averted. Lots of details remain but the last thing they want is to be hit with 25% or higher tariffs and they know that Trump is not bluffing. It will go through.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Trump isn’t bluffing !

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

I guess we’ll find out on Friday what kind of tariffs the EU is hit with. If it’s 15%, then we’ll know that the “THERE’S NO DEAL” is really a deal.

It’s hilarious that some are taking such a literal account of DEAL or NO DEAL when everyone knows there’s additional steps that have to be taken.

But how’s this? Can the EU imagine how pissed Trump is going to be if the EU Parliament strikes down the deal or tries to go into delay tactics? Isn’t Russia continuing to gain territory in Ukraine?

But remember, THERE’S NO DEAL, because the commentors on Mishtalk say so. They’re the final word on this matter, not the EU Parliment.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

The cognitive dissonance in your closing statement is very impressive, you clearly worked that one up over months if not years

David Heartland
David Heartland
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

Yes, we know ALL. OH, wait a minute….

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

The EU is not being “hit” with tariffs. They do not pay tariffs to US Customs. The US importer pays.

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

“ European business leaders do not like paying tariffs but they prefer knowing they have to pay 15% to knowing if the deal doesn’t go through they will have to pay much much more”

You keep saying that you worked in finance.

EU businesses do NOT pay tariffs to US Customs. Anyone who worked in finance would know that.

misc
misc
10 months ago

To dumb things down for those who believe the mainstream media, Trump is proposing rebate checks to US citizens based on the amount of tariff revenues received. There is also to be an income cap on receiving these checks.

This way it can be clearly shown that the US consumer does not pay for these tariffs. This is instead of having a lengthy conversation about how the tariffs as currently implemented are deflationary.

It is also easier to show that his economic policies benefit the lower income households.

John Overington
John Overington
10 months ago
Reply to  misc

So where does the money behind those cheques come from? MAGA at its best.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago

Their Orange Wizard will spin up an answer from whole cloth post haste

Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  misc

So much of this is misrepresented, some on this sight, and a boatload on others. The MSM will not willingly and honestly show the Country and the World what’s truly happening.
A lot of “New Money” and “Jobs” and “Sales” and “Savings” is coming to America, but in all sorts of different ways.
The World obviously is aware, so they don’t have to be told. They are living it, prospering from it, and simply loving it!! Why wouldn’t they, as they are making money, growing, and dealing in new areas of the World. Everyone seems happy that should be, and one is the U.S. for example, as we receive and not just pay Tariffs any longer. Others are the EU/UK & Europe overall!they will prosper greatly in Energy, and commerce, amongst just a few of there benefits on the way. The World is becoming a more favored place to trade with, once the rules are fair and understandable, as they are becoming!!!

Joe
Joe
10 months ago

The Main Problem Is

No One Knows What To Buy – Nor When to Buy
and It may Well be Inflationary
Meaning no business knows what inventory to take in and when
And due to the fact there was such large buying when tariffs 1st announced before 90 days extension before August 1 deadline and still no ‘ deals ‘

I opine alot of corporations bought a lot of inventory they are now sitting on or unloading ( though much of it may have been unloaded 2 Q )

eg: I bought a few Lands End shirts on sale 70 % off
now I get usually at least 3 emails or texts a day telling me about
More sales – still on sale and more sales constant sales

While not immediately inflationary overstocked inventory on sale and
need to initially maintain market share, it appears clear the inflationary
effect will grow over time

Price Reductions to Clear Excess Stock: When businesses hold excess inventory, they often resort to discounting to stimulate sales and free up storage space. These price reductions can lower the prices of goods in the CPI basket, exerting downward pressure on CPI.

Everyone clammoring about low CPI and probably due to overstock due to initial tariff panic

KPStaufen
KPStaufen
10 months ago

These are not deals! Trump initiates “deals” with little to no real leverage, and he is too lazy and impatient to work through an agreement using negotiation and compromise. Thus, he unilaterally breaks something or threatens something to gain leverage. He then puts unreasonable conditions on either repairing what he broke or ceasing the threat. He receives a response and almost immediately backs down, agrees to either essentially what existed in the first place or something just slightly better, and declares victory. It is not the Art of the Deal; it is instead the Art of a Con, which is always more about a public performance designed to create a false narrative and give the impression of strength and power.

Last edited 10 months ago by KPStaufen
randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago
Reply to  KPStaufen

Oh look Michael Engel and Doug78 downvotes! Well done!

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
10 months ago

Taco has been known to “stretch” the truth on almost every occasion.

Jim
Jim
10 months ago
Reply to  Tony Frank

It’s all a pretense. Just play along and hope the economy survives. He has the nuclear codes to the economy.

ryan lynn
ryan lynn
10 months ago

“ There is no advantage to paying the most in the world for Steel, Copper, Aluminum, and cars.”

And don’t forget sugar with the same crony capitalist grift problems. But hey Mexican coke with real sugar is available, and its only $8 a 4 pack

#winning

Green Mountain
Green Mountain
10 months ago

My question is how businesses operate in this craziness of not knowing what the cost of goods will actually be day to day. And since nothing is signed, Trump could change his mind in another 30 days. Are businesses making side deals with the WH? And of course, the small business owner is left out in the cold.

LM2020
LM2020
10 months ago

Will this make people forget that Trump is in the Epstein files? Doubtful. Counting down the days til impeachment or the 25th amendment is used on this loser.

Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  LM2020

More importantly, will they finally believe Trump was never on the island?

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
10 months ago

Got to keep juggling and adding to the mess so people forget about the things he has not accomplished. Tik tok got 70 or 90 more days.

Maximus Minimus
Maximus Minimus
10 months ago

Trump said the EU will invest $600 billion in the U.S. and buy $750 billion of U.S. energy, with “vast amounts” of American weapons also in the mix.”

Is the EU a communist economy with central planning rather than free market with corporate investment decisions? AFAIK it’s the latter, so what is this, and what does the EU get in return?

ryan lynn
ryan lynn
10 months ago

I had the same question. weapons ok, but how can they promise “investment”.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago
Reply to  ryan lynn

“Our offer for 20 cents on the dollar was rejected, so we are unable to invest”

Augustine
Augustine
10 months ago

Can German importers buy more Russian gas? Why not? Governments compel trade.

Art
Art
10 months ago
Reply to  Augustine

Govts can influence trade, with restrictions like tariffs and bans. But countries do not trade. Unfortunately, our dear leader seems to disagree.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  Augustine

Russian gas will be replaced by American gas. That is perhaps the most no-brainier part of the deal since the EU wants to cut out Russia without causing a price surge.

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Last year we exported a total of $50 billion in LNG to many countries around the world. Most under long term contracts. $22 billion of this went to the EU.

The EU imported a total of $50 billion in LNG in 2024.

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago

Yep. As predicted, Trump is making “deals” where both sides say completely different things. Nothing on paper. No details to look at. The other countries stall as much as possible, and concede as little as possible.

Trump call this “winning”. Meanwhile US businesses and consumers will ultimately pay these tariffs either directly to the US govt or in the form of higher prices of items on the shelf.

Trump is doing his very best to make US manufacturing the most uncompetitive in the world.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) has gone from a 38% weighting in the US to a 47% weighting now. I wonder why.

Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Strength!

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Yes. Unlike US SS, Canada has a pension plan that is invested in stocks, land, infrastructure, etc “all over the world”. It has been earning great returns, and presently has an actuarial surplus. It is considered fully funded for then next 75 years.

Imagine that! An actual investment fund, and it’s in a surplus position.

Our SS has no such worldwide investment fund and benefits are expected to be cut within a few years.

Which is why I tell folks here not to rely on the US govt for your retirement. Focus on building your wealth so SS is just a bonus if you ever get it.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

But what would that pension plan look like if the market dropped by 50%? Would it then be solvent for 75 years? That’s the problem, no one really knows whether it’s going to be solvent or not because no one can predict the market in the future (esp 10+ years out much less 75).

The other problem is that while Canada might be able to do this, the US could not. The reason should be obvious. Canada is tiny population wise. If the US SS invested in the market it would literally have owned almost everything because if it’s size and at that point you have in effect a quasi communist country (government owning everything or at least a majority share of everything).

Last edited 10 months ago by TexasTim65
PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Not a problem according to AI.

A significant drop in the stock market, such as a 50% decline, would likely impact the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), but it’s unlikely to eliminate its surplus. The CPP is designed with a long-term perspective and has a diversified portfolio that includes assets beyond stocks, like bonds and real estate. Additionally, the CPP’s funding model and investment strategy are structured to withstand market fluctuations.
Here’s why:
Diversification:
The CPP invests in a wide range of asset classes, not just stocks. This diversification helps mitigate the impact of downturns in any single market.
Long-term investment horizon:
The CPP operates with a very long-term perspective, allowing it to weather short-term market volatility and benefit from long-term growth.
Funding model:
The CPP’s funding is based on contributions from workers and employers, and it’s designed to be sustainable for the long term, even with market fluctuations.
Resilience:
The CPP’s investments are managed by CPP Investments, which is focused on long-term returns and has a proven track record of navigating market downturns.
While a 50% drop in the stock market would undoubtedly affect the CPP’s investment returns in the short term, the plan’s structure and long-term focus mean it would likely still maintain a surplus. The CPP is designed to be resilient and adaptable to various economic conditions

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I don’t trust AI generated responses very much. Half of them are completely wrong or just espouse the ‘party line’ scraped from the website.

In this case the response just espouses the ‘party line’. It’s guaranteed not to fail because it’s invested in diversified assets along with ‘trust us, we are experts’. Virtually every mutual fund are invested in the exact same way as the CPP model and plenty have gone belly up.

You of all people, a savvy investor should know that anyone promising to know where things are going to be in 10 years much less 75 is just flat out lying.

Last edited 10 months ago by TexasTim65
PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Of course you don’t believe AI this time. Because it doesn’t agree with your false premise. As a “savvy investor”, I would have given a similar answer. But you wouldn’t have believed me either. Right?

And no. The average mutual fund is NOT invested like a national pension fund. That’s ridiculous. They are very different vehicles with very different investment strategies and objectives. Even you should know that.

Pokercat
Pokercat
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I tell friends not to rely on the US Govt for anything except hardship and sorrow. There is no doubt that capitalism is the bane of all but the top 10%.

Last edited 10 months ago by Pokercat
PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Pokercat

You can’t change how things work. All you can do is take advantage (legally of course) of how things work. Become self-reliant and be part of the top 10%.

Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

– Trump is doing his very best to make US manufacturing the most uncompetitive in the world.
> I see it as that’s where we have been, for decades, and decades… Now America is finally breaking free from that BS. Trumps Administration is doing a fantastic job at bring into America “New” Money, and with it comes Jobs. Trumps Administration is also finally applying Tariffs to equal the playing field in cost associated with that Manufacturing. This will ease the cost of products, and make America more competitive with the rest of the World in many instances.

>> Nothing negative is occurring that I can see. Lots of MSM nonsense, that gets debunked as quickly as it gets printed in many instances. Lots of unknowns to come, but all look to be leaning in a positive direction. More money flowing into America for new manufacturing, which lowers unemployment and inflation at the same time. We should see lower cost for American made goods in this equation. We should be more competitive and with New Markets, all over the World, opening up for America, we will see additional sales we never had before, which further strengthens our Manufacturing Base, and bring down cost even further, and profits up, as a result.

>>> MAGA & MAHA seem to be doing just fine imo. There is win after win behind the scenes, but batted down in the press, and many outlets, not taught or spoken about in the schools, and most accomplishments hidden, not spoken about, or tossed off as incomplete, not occurring, smaller than what was estimated, slower, weaker, less, ETC. Rarely do you hear anything good, unless you search for it. The Press is strongly against any good stories coming to light about anything this Administration is doing, that is helping Americans in all walks of life!!!

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Stu

“Trumps Administration is also finally applying Tariffs to equal the playing field in cost associated with that Manufacturing. This will ease the cost of products, and make America more competitive with the rest of the World in many instances.”

Lol! I want some of what you are smoking!

Yes. Let’s put 50% tariffs on copper, aluminum and steel. That will make it easier for our manufacturers to compete against foreign competition that doesn’t have those tariffs.

Hahahaha!

Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Has that officially actually happened? We are paying them today?

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Stu
Stu
Stu
10 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

That’s the retaliatory Tariff, which will be gone shortly. They are not going to jeopardize a $750 Billion Energy Deal, which is desperately required, over a stupid little Tariff… They will agree to Her Deal with the Trump Administration, as written, as I said.

PapaDave
PapaDave
10 months ago
Reply to  Stu

First: You are referring to the EU, which is not high up on the list for Us steel, aluminum or copper imports.

Second: Trump said the 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum stay. Again, these deals are so haphazard and not even written on paper so both sides are confused.

Third; largest US steel imports are from Canada, Brazil and Mexico; largest US aluminum imports are from Canada, UAR, and China; largest US copper imports are from Mexico, Chile, and Peru. 50% tariffs remain in effect.

Moron.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
10 months ago

The fact none of the other countries are describing a tariff as tax on the end consumer shows the whole tariff thing is kabuki theater to deceive the average citizen of ALL countries to be happy to pay more taxes without calling it a tax.

Hans
Hans
10 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

Hmmm … why would they need to say ANYTHING, both Japan and the EU agreed to 0% tariffs on US imports so import tariffs on US goods actually will fall for consumers in those countries. Also, they don’t have politicians claiming that ‘the other country’ will pay the tariff in the first place . . .

Gary L
Gary L
10 months ago

We’ve reached the point when a “victory” for Trump is hailed as a victory for Americans. Thanks for pointing out that it’s nothing of the sort. One day people will realize this gradually, then suddenly.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
10 months ago

  US markets defy doomsayers, draw record foreign inflows
Trump has brought in over $1T in investments this week alone. This isn’t even counting the AI capital spending boom due to deducting investments here from income for the next decade.

US markets defy doomsayers as ‘exceptionalism roars back’ | Fortune (archive.ph)

Phil
Phil
10 months ago

and your point is?

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
10 months ago
Reply to  Phil

He likes to count chickens before they’ve hatched

Gary L
Gary L
10 months ago

I’m from Missouri, show me the money. Wanna bet it won’t be tthere? In software it’s called vaporware–promised but never materializing.

Pokercat
Pokercat
10 months ago
Reply to  Gary L

About as real as a self driving Tesla.

ryan lynn
ryan lynn
10 months ago

Inflows make sense. Everyone front ran tariffs. The dollars foreign entities got in return likely funneled back into US assets. See what flows look like in 3 months.

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.