Trump threatened China with tariffs for doing business with Russia. Guess what?
Choke Hold on Rare Earths
The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies
Earlier this year, as U.S.-China trade tensions soared, Beijing tightened the controls it places on the export of rare earths. While Beijing allowed them to start flowing after the Trump administration agreed in June to a series of trade concessions, China has maintained a lock on critical minerals for defense purposes. China supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths and dominates the production of many other critical minerals.
As a result, one drone-parts manufacturer that supplies the U.S. military was forced to delay orders by up to two months while it searched for a non-Chinese source of magnets, which are assembled from rare earths.
Certain materials needed by the defense industry now go for five or more times what was typical before China’s recent mineral restrictions, according to industry traders. One company said it was recently offered samarium—an element needed to make magnets that can withstand the extreme temperatures of a jet-fighter engine—for 60 times the standard price. That is already driving the cost of defense systems higher, say suppliers and defense executives.
The squeeze on critical minerals highlights how dependent the U.S. military is on China for much of its supply chain—giving Beijing leverage at a time of rising tensions between the two powers and heated trade negotiations. Defense manufacturers supplying the U.S. military rely on minerals that are mainly produced in China for microelectronics, drone motors, night-vision goggles, missile-targeting systems and defense satellites.
While companies have tried to find alternative sources of these minerals in recent years, some of the elements are so niche that they can’t be economically produced in the West, say industry executives.
In addition to the more recent export controls on rare earths, China has since December banned sales to the U.S. of germanium, gallium and antimony—which are used for things like hardening lead bullets and projectiles, and to allow soldiers to see at night.
Some companies now warn of looming production cuts if more minerals aren’t forthcoming.
On Wednesday, the chief executive of Leonardo DRS said the U.S.-based defense firm is down to its “safety stock” of germanium.
“In order to sustain timely product deliveries, material flow must improve in the second half” of 2025, CEO Bill Lynn said on a conference call. The company is the U.S. subsidiary of Italian defense giant Leonardo.
Germanium goes into the company’s infrared sensors, which are used in missiles and other equipment. Lynn said that the company is looking at diversifying its supply chain while also finding ways to replace it in its products.
The Pentagon is requiring defense contractors to stop buying rare-earth magnets that contain China-sourced minerals by 2027. [If this is not stupid then someone tell me who the alternate source is.]
But suppliers and defense companies often hold less than a year’s worth—some just a few months—of many other critical mineral stockpiles.
Drone manufacturers are among the most vulnerable, because many are small startups and have very limited revenue or supply-chain savvy, and never got around to acquiring large stockpiles of rare-earth magnets and metals, say some in the defense industry.
More than 80,000 parts that are used in Defense Department weapons systems are made with critical minerals now subject to Chinese export controls, according to data from defense software firm Govini. Nearly all of the supply chains for key critical minerals used by the Pentagon rely on at least one Chinese supplier, Govini said, meaning restrictions from Beijing can cause widespread disruptions.
Since stepping up export controls earlier this year, China has begun requiring companies to provide extensive documentation of how they will use the rare earths and magnets they import. Chinese regulators often demand sensitive information, such as product images and even photos of production lines, to ensure none of the materials go to military use, say Western buyers.
The Department of Defense has awarded grants to expand production of niche materials, including $14 million in funding last year to a Canadian company to produce germanium substrates used in solar cells for defense satellites. In July, the Pentagon took an even bigger step when it agreed to pay $400 million for a stake in MP Materials, the operator of the largest rare-earths mine in the Americas, which is rapidly scaling up its magnet manufacturing capacity.
The Pentagon didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Dear Canada
Please tell the U.S. to F O unless and until Trump cuts tariffs.
Trump should be working with Canada and Mexico on rare earths. But Trump spits in their faces.
I suggest Canada spit back.
Defense companies that traditionally outsourced the purchase of critical minerals to sub-suppliers are now using their market heft to try to acquire sources of key materials themselves. Major defense companies “are starting to get more and more panicked as they go, because they recognize that they’re just not going to get the magnets, no matter what happens, unless they get involved,” said Nicholas Myers, the CEO of Phoenix Tailings, a Massachusetts startup that produces rare-earth metals.
Beijing is signaling that it takes its mineral export bans very seriously. Earlier this year, one U.S. defense supplier, the United States Antimony Corporation, tried to ship 55 metric tons of antimony mined in Australia to its smelter in Mexico. The load transited via the Chinese port city of Ningbo—until recently a routine practice.
But in April, while the shipment was being transloaded in Ningbo, China customs detained it for three months, prompting United States Antimony to ask the State Department and White House for help.
The Chinese released the shipment in July, on the condition that it be sent back to Australia and not to the U.S. When it arrived in Australia, United States Antimony learned that product seals had been broken. It is currently working out whether the antimony has been tampered with or contaminated.
“The shipping company, everyone who was involved, they’d never seen this happen before,” said company CEO Gary Evans.
Dear Australia
Please tell the U.S. to F O unless and until Trump cuts tariffs.
Bessent Flashback
“Trump goaded China into a bad position”. Yeah right.
Hoot of the Day – 100 to 500 Percent Tariffs on China
The smug look on Bessent’s face at the end of the clip is priceless.
These clowns believe they can put 100 percent to 500 percent tariffs on China and get away with it.
This is despite the fact the first try resulted in two tacos.
On June 5, I commented Two-TACO Trump Day on His Call to Xi Over Rare Earth Elements
Trump is hyping up his call with China’s Xi. But chalk up 2 more TACOs.
Flashback June 11 – Truth Social
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Full magnets? And any necessary rare earths?
Hmm. Either Trump is exaggerating or he is dealing with someone whose word is a good as his.
Trump, Bessent, and the Cult keep bragging about deals. There is not a single signed deal.
But what is Trump’s signature or word worth anyway? Until something is signed, it’s ridiculous to expect any agreement to hold.
Here we are short of rare earths and Trump is threatening 500 percent tariffs on China if it buys Russian oil.
Today we see the response. Trump is not getting full magnets from China.
I advise Canada and Australia to play the same game.
“RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!”
Related Posts
July 27, 2025: Trump Announces a 15 Percent Tariff Deal With the EU But There Is No Deal
Two Problems: Trump is exaggerating the deal. And Ursula has no signing authority.
July 27, 2025: Trump Is Bragging about Tax Hikes While the EU Cuts Them
MAGA is going gaga over tax hikes.
The EU pretended to make a deal and Trump bragged about it.
China pretended to make a deal and and Trump bragged about it.
Japan pretended to make a deal and and Trump bragged about it.
Wake me up when there are actual signed details.
Just wondering when the Americans are going to wake up and tell Trump “You Are Fired!”
But it’s ok too if he can drag the US further down over the next few years. Sometimes reality is revealed and visible only when they come down from their high horses to face it. It will be quite a humbly wake up by then.
BP just announced its largest oil discovery in 25 years.
Of course it is off the coast of Brazil. No problem with them selling it to China because Trump drove them together and alienated Brazil.
Who does Trump work for?
>.
30 years ago the company I worked for informed employees it would not send manufacturing overseas because the design could be stolen. The VP of marketing didn’t have an MBA, but a 4 year degree from a no-name state school and a lot of common sense.
Unfortunately it’s the negligent leadership in the West who have put the proverbial noose over their own heads by outsourcing manufacturing to China to the point China became the world’s monopoly in so many things.
As all monopolies do, China is flexing its muscles and cashing its chips in. The longer the West continues to import goods rather than build at home, the less sovereignty the West will have. So while the majority object to Trump’s actions, he at least recognizes the problem and is doing something. Nobody is willing to take any pain for the past mistakes, so they prefer to remain in a stupor like a drug addict instead of cleaning up and choosing a path toward a better life.
Trump 1.0 was in the same position 8.5 years ago. He did SFA. He’s a giant loser.
How are the lives of Somalis bombed by Trump and Biden measured versus “rare earths” there?
It appears the headline has a typo. Based on recent decades the last word should be “offense”.
Trump has eliminated the de minimus exemption for ALL countries now. So no matter what other country your sub $800 package comes from, expect to pay tariffs on it. Previously the exemption was eliminated just for packages from China and Hong Kong.
To keep them from being re-routed to the US via another country obviously. Common tactic.
Lol! Another hit to the US consumer and small businesses. And you cheer it on.
If Trump doesn’t wipe himself well enough, I bet you are right there to lick him clean.
Come on. Your insults are very weak and unimaginative. You can do better than that.
PapaDave was being kind. You should like your wound with some dignity, and try to learn from it.
Meanwhile, the EU announced it will suspend its planned tariffs and countermeasures against the US for 6 months, while it works to “finalize” a “joint statement” based on von der Layen’s discussion with Trump. Wow. We almost have a statement. Next will be 6 months of negotiations on the framework that results from the statement. Then we can get into the nitty gritty details over the next few years. Too bad that Trump will change the details a dozen times over the next 6 months.
If they drag on too long they get the Canada treatment.
Yep. They will drag everything out as long as possible just like every other country in the world. And in the meantime they will complete trade agreements with each other so they can increase trade with everyone except the US.
Probably not. They briefly tried that and saw that each one of them had too many conflicting priorities and interests. They came to the conclusion that is was easier just to agree to the tariffs and try to renegotiate them in the future if they can. That’s why they agreements came all at once just before the end of July.
Canada is selling copper and its natural gas to foreign markets in direct response to Trump’s ignorance of economics and schoolyard bellicosity.
It won’t stop. Trust and confidence matter.
Lol! What agreements are those? Details please.
If I was China, why would I give the US rare earths just so they can use it in their military. To then be used on the Chinese people one day like they are using on the Palestinians? Rare earths are a wrap for the US.
The faster they cut us off the faster we build our own and get alternate supplies.
Are you gaining or losing weight on the Hopium Diet?
Hahahaha! What’s your time frame for that happening?
New technology being developed will undermine China’s monopoly on rare earth processing….
https://investorhub.metalliuminc.com/announcements/7008343
Hey didn’t I joke about exactly this on the graphite post last night? Jeez he really is dumb as a brick lol. It’s hard to joke about someone dumb enough to actively self sabotage on a level that’d make Hitler and Mussolini look somewhat intelligent by comparison. By “somewhat intelligent” I mean “able to find countries on a labeled map”.
How about we bag out of NATO and make a strategic military alliance with China? Russia can still be the boogeyman for the plebes. Maybe throw in Venezuela if we need somebody to invade.
Trump is in a bad position where he got himself by playing liar’s poker in early April. Geneva MoU probably stipulates that REE supplies for weapons industry are not part of the trade deal. If China stops fentanyl and its precursors export (which is likely) Trump is obliged to remove 20% from 30% reciprocal tariff on China meaning that Chinese consumer goods will have 10% tariff. EU, Japan, RoK have higher tariffs, ASEAN as well. Think about the consequences. If Trump starts pushing Chinese they will say that he broke spirit of the MoU and they start limiting supply of REEs and another materials which will lead to problems in US manufacturing (cars, planes, medical instruments, electrical equipment). Yes, at certain point Trump may put embargo on plane components and chip design software but then Beijing simply stops all REE exports to the US and US manufacturing collapses. I wonder how Trump is going to get himself out of this mess.
He isn’t. I doubt he even understands the implicaitons of what he’s done, and he’s far more focused on getting himself out of the Epstien mess.
T will throw mud, create new crises and run out the clock.
Pedophiles are never forgiven. And Trump is in deeper than any of us can imagine.
BINGO!! BANGO!! BONGO!!!!
OT: Can I tell Canada to FO for seemingly being unwilling and unable to control forest fires annually causing breathing difficulties for 3 years in a row and impacting the corn crops in the U.S?
As soon as you do something about the CO2 emissions raising the temperature and causing the ifres to be out of control.
If you genuinely believe there is a cause/ effect relationship between those two things, not having any more conferences that thousands take private jets to would be a good place to start.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o
Yes, it would. There is plenty of stupid to go around.
I think you mean the chemtrail spraying that is causing the forest floors to dry up into kindling. There is no global warming connected to the CO2. That is all part of the psyops.
Those darn lizard people are at it again.
Hahaha! Love it!
Details please.
The White man can not survive without Chinese goodwill.
It just takes one tyrant to ruin a country, for generations.
I wouldn’t be worried at all. Just give the war department another 100B, and they will ferret out the magnets on the black market.
Gee wiz, what the heck happened in 2021?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597
the population got exponentially older. if you draw a line from the low between July 2010 and today, the change fits perfectly. It will grow exponentially higher through 2030. You may want to blame COVID and the vax and there are those that suffer from long COVID but the disability curve was going to happen without COVID and the vax regardless.
What we really need to see is how the numbers changed for those between ages 16-60, essentially the working age population. If those have remained flat then definitely the increase is due to an aging population as you suggest (those on SS). But if the numbers are increasing in the age group 16-60 then something is wrong (either scamming disability, covid vax issues or something else).
📊 Over the past decade, the U.S. population in the 16–60 age group has experienced modest growth, but its share of the total population has declined slightly due to aging demographics and lower birth rates.
👥 Estimated Population Change (2014–2024)
• 2014: ~190 million people aged 16–60
• 2024: ~195 million people aged 16–60
• Net Change: +5 million (approx. 2.6% increase over 10 years)
📉 Shifting Demographics
• The total U.S. population grew from ~319 million in 2014 to ~342 million in 2024 A.
• The 16–60 age group now makes up ~57% of the population, down from ~60% a decade ago.
• Growth in this age bracket has slowed, while the 65+ population surged due to aging Baby Boomers.
🔍 Key Drivers
• Lower birth rates and slower immigration have reduced growth in younger cohorts.
• Increased life expectancy has expanded the senior population.
• Labor force participation among 16–60-year-olds has remained relatively stable, but is under pressure from automation and shifting job markets.
Thanks.
But what I meant (obviously I wasn’t clear enough) was I wanted to see the breakdown of those on disability by age. The chart Avery2 linked to just shows how many aged 16+ are considered disabled and shows a large rise after 2021.
It’s possible the increase in disabled is simply as MPO45v2 posits, it’s because the country is aging and so it’s natural for more disabled people in an aged population. Or that rapid rise could be what Mish wrote about a couple of years ago where a lot of people who lost jobs simply became ‘disabled’ since they could not find work. To know for sure we need to know the number of disabled people that are working age (18-60) and whether that’s been rapidly rising or steady.
The US has experienced a slightly decreasing life expectancy over the last 2 decades. Primarily as a result of increased obesity and its resulting pathologies, deaths due to COVID, and deaths due to violence. The increase in the over 65 population is a result of the large population of boomers.
Most people that age are fat as hell, and it’s catching up with them. Been watching my aunts and uncles become unable to move around and take care of themselves. Not surprising, because they are basically carrying around another person.
Mom was falling every other day because she was so top heavy. She looked like she had been in a bar fight before other obesity related conditions finally killed her.
Semiglude offers hope for the next generation… hopefully we won’t find out it has some horrible side effect.
COVID was the flu, nothing more, as the flu numbers went to zero. Verifiable FACT.
Long Covid, from which Dr. Robert Malone allegedly suffers, is the effects of the injection, which he would state if he weren’t am intelligence asset.
Great post Mish. Though I expect
Doug will tell you that he has the solution to China cutting off rare earth exports to the US defense industry. Just put tariffs on them! Problem solved! That’s Doug’s solution to any raw material import that has been cut off. Lol!
Only to say that we should never have made the decision to let China mine and refine all our strategic materials. I am sure you find that was a great policy because it made the supply chain more efficient all the time expecting China was doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. Do you still have your “Libertarians for Harris” T-shirt? By the way, is your solution something like “let’s drop all tariffs on China so they can cut off all our strategic materials whenever we do something that displeases them”?
1. You still think that China pays the tariffs.
2. You still think that the solution to China cutting off rare earths is for Trump to tariff them.
3. You are a dumb f*ck.
He’s our DEI dumb f*ck. The retarded may not be excluded.
You are more forgiving than I am.
I perceive two “Village Idiots” in this discussion. One being less of an idiot, but two ~ none-the-less.
EVERYONE knows the importer pays the tariffs.
But apparently, EVERYONE isn’t willing to admit that exporters can drop the price equivalent to the tariff which means there’s no real cost added consumer or importer for that matter. The importer just has to give the treasury a part of what used to be their profit. But their actual costs do not rise, so their profit margin doesn’t change in this simple example.
AND REMEMBER, KIDDOS, IN AGGREGATE US PROFIT MARGINS ARE AT ALL TIME HIGHS.
Of course, I’m using the simple version. In the real world with varying levels of tariffs and comparing countries, some eat part or all of the tariff & others don’t.
As for #2, his solution is different from yours which is his prerogative. The only difference between the two of you is that he’s not calling you names.
As for the article, Mish makes several good points, but so does Doug in terms of supporting Trump drawing a line in the sand and saying, we’ve got to do something big about this.
We can argue until the cows come home what do something big means, but “go big or go home” definitely rings true here.
Oh look, another one…
The solution is to make and mine our own as soon as possible but you seem incapable of understanding that or more likely you can’t admit that that would be the best solution because it goes against your strict Libertarian straitjacket. Immobilism becomes your sole strategy.
I must be a dumb f..k for even reading your comments. They are not worth the time.
Almost correct. You should not read anything I say because you prefer to stay ignorant of the truth. Heaven help you if you learn something from me that contradicts your stupid cult beliefs.
The solution is to provide the necessary incentives to produce more of what we strategically need over time. Whether that is REMs, steel, aluminum, copper, graphite, potash etc. Because the private sector will not do it if there is no profit in it. So the government has to incentivize it.
In the meantime, we need to be purchasing as much of these materials as possible and build up strategic stockpiles of them while we work at increasing domestic production. Because it will take a decade or more to build that production, and we need a buffer during that long time period in case our imports get cut off.
We should make our purchases of these materials wherever possible from our friends and allies. But if we have to buy from China, because there is no other choice, then so be it.
The main thing is to not piss off whoever is supplying us with these critical materials for our new strategic reserves, because they “might” cut us off from those supplies and then we are screwed.
Clearly we can get almost everything we need from Canada and Mexico. So we should be doing our best to keep friendly relations with them while we purchase as much as possible from them at decent prices.
Now, what do you and Trump prefer? To charge really high tariffs on the very things we must import and stockpile from Canada, Mexico, China etc . That is your “solution”.
Dumb f*ck.
“In the meantime, we need to be purchasing as much of these materials as possible and build up strategic stockpiles of them while we work at increasing domestic production”
Did you see how neatly they engineered getting enough copper back into US warehouses to levels not seen for two decades? It was a neat job and hats off to the team that brought that about. It was genius.
The ultimate safe supplier of strategic materials is and can only be the US itself. It is an ambitious objective and probably can’t be fulfilled but one must try. The difference between you and I PapaDave is that you still believe we live in a peaceful world while I think the world has gotten so dangerous that we cannot hide our heads in the sand any longer. That explains your complacency and my militancy. We are two sides of the same coin.
Nope. The difference between us is I live in the real world and see things as they are.
While your head is so far up Trump’s fat ass that you can’t see a thing.
Which is why you still think that other countries pay tariffs to US customs.
And you think that the best response to being cut off from strategic materials is to put tariffs on them.
Dumb f*ck.
“ Did you see how neatly they engineered getting enough copper back into US warehouses to levels not seen for two decades? It was a neat job and hats off to the team that brought that about. It was genius.”
Yep. And then Trump changed his mind and only restricted “some” copper. Copper prices plummeted and the “genius” traders you mention took a huge loss. Lol!
📦 Ahead of President Trump’s recent tariffs, copper saw the most dramatic stockpiling activity:
• 🧲 Copper: Traders rushed to import refined copper into the U.S. expecting a 50% tariff. This led to COMEX-registered warehouse stockpiles soaring 170% to 253,431 short tons — the highest level in 21 years. However, refined copper was ultimately exempted from the tariffs, leaving traders with excess inventory.
The copper situation was especially volatile due to the last-minute exemption, which triggered a historic 20% drop in copper futures on the COMEX exchange.
Those traders lost but the stocks are in the US. The traders themselves know how to appreciate a sweet play even when they lose money. That is something you never knew and will never know.
The government doesn’t have any money except what it extracts from consumers so cut the crap.
Costs go up and wage earners pay – one way or another. Unfortunately, it’s not only the wage earners who are allowed to vote. Those sucking on the government teat also vote – to gift themselves money from those who work for it. And it gets worse.
Don’t worry, it will end one day. The can gets kicked down the road but even the longest roads end. Politicians never pay for their sins.
Lol! We already spend a trillion per year on defense . I’m pretty sure we can’t use a few million of it to build a strategic reserve of materials the military needs.
Bravo, and it should have been done during Trumps first tariff tantrum. Plus Biden should have stockpiled these elements. Trump had the shortages staring him in the face and he poked the bear. So we have two “Village Idiots” in this discussion but a President that makes them look smart.
Trump never sees the advantage of a “win-win” deal, and to his own demise as he soon enters the lame-duck era of his 2.0 Presidency.
Except Canada is thinking of quadrupling hydro rates that the Eastern Seaboard and northwest Washington state needs.
And Canada now has a pipeline to the Pacific and a couple more in the works – don’t need to send oil to the USA at a discounted price.
The import and U.S. export ratios for steel and copper are almost equal. Canada can prohibit U.S. metals and use their own supplies.
Canada has basically the same agriculture, so don’t need USA there, and “exotic” fruits and vegetables come from Mexico and South America. Canada has also started exporting to alternate countries – screw USA. USA is not needed.
The Chinese buy Russian oil, hold back rare earths needed for defense weapons, and now maybe we can’t sell anything useful to Ukraine. Honestly idk if rare are needed for weapons to Ukraine but you see the point. I’m sure Putin is relaxing on his throne, sipping vodka, and chucking back popcorn or whatever they eat at the movies there.
First we were told that we needed these tariffs to correct unfair trade practices. Then we needed the tariffs to reverse trade deficits. Now we are being told that the tariffs are needed as a political and economic weapon. This is nothing more than an extortion racket at this point. As poorly as Democrats are doing and despite the disarray that they are in, this insanity will assure that they will win the midterms in 2026.
Will be interesting to see if Jerome Powell addresses the Pentagon’s new budget/cost overruns at his next Fed press conference with these additional costs Trump oversaw
These sound like they will end up being way more expensive than the Fed’s building cost overruns
This is not Trump’s fault!
Our nation was warned 15- 20 years ago in bipartisan subcommittee hearings about Rare Earth minerals and Congress did absolutely nothing including the previous presidents.
Sure! And try to sell me a bridge…
Trump provoked China to hard stop rare earth exports without thinking about the consequences of no alternative supply or stockpiling the rare earths in front of starting a trade war.
Trump is a vicious, perverted, malignant narcissist that is crippling our defense industry with intent and the support of a mega media propaganda machine called NewsCorp…
<
I don’t think that anyone is saying that China’s control of rare earth minerals is Trump’s fault. Trump’s problem is that he is ignoring reality by threatening tariffs on China and is pissing off the countries that could help the United States out of this situation.
Next you’ll tell us that you have some beach front property in AZ that you would like to sell.
When the Big One hits California……..
When I lived in Arizona that was the big joke at the time.
The Free Trade lobby told them that in a world connected by trade, war is not possible because it goes against the economic interests of each country hence there is no risk in letting unfriendly countries control those resources.
True enough, but we have a bad apple causing the whole box to decay
We had two bad apples, Obama and Biden, that let us get into this situation. Now we have someone trying to get us out of it before it is too late.
That someone is entirely focused on getting people to not talk about his pedophelia.
Let’s talk about yours.
Oh Look Russia Russia….
Trump 1.0 did nothing when it was alive, but he’s resurrecting the issue now for one reason only: His obvious criminal involvement with Epstein.
Yep, and I’m not going to say his strategy is perfect.
But let’s say Congress allocated $100B to move mountains (literally) to create a Moon Shot of removing our dependence on China’s REM through all sorts of non-tariff related policies.
Does anyone honestly China is going to sell us the REM over how many years that takes to really start eating into the dominance?
I emphatically say no they won’t. They’d want a large portion of that $100B for themselves and would start drastically charging us more.
THEY HAVE US LITERALLY OVER A BARREL.
So let’s all stop acting like there’s a SIMPLE solution here. There’s not. But does that mean that I like everything about what Trump is doing, especially with regards to REM? Absolutely not.
We could give up the stupid idea of perpetually preventing China from regaining control over their own island province of 24 million that we’ve formally agreed for over 50 years is part of “one China”.
Our government is mostly bad apples – both parties. There are a handful of decent people like Thomas Massie.
We got a lot of bad apples. General Mike Minihan, for example. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967 Or General Chris Donahue who just suggested the US could take over Kaliningrad in short order. Or Sen Linda Graham. John McCain is running US foreign policy from hell.
Trump 1.0: 2017-2020.
Not Trump’s fault? No contribution to the problem while he falsely claimed greatest economy in the history of America?
As regards the effectiveness of the tariffs?
That is the tip of the spear that Trump is driving into the heart of American manufacturing. 25th Amendment time!
#5, one win out of 7.
1265 – that’s the number of days left for the maniac in the White House and it’s a race to see if this clown creates a global depression, a world war or a US bond default before we hit day zero.
I had thought maybe dems could slow this train wreck at the midterms but seeing how useless and spineless dems have been, I have no hope.
Got exit strategy?
Global Depression == Golden Age in trumplingspeak. They’ll finally have a tangible exuse for failing at life.
The administration is not weighing the cost of its actions as nothing here is unexpected. Here is a specific example:
The administration acts like we have oil and natural gas out the wazoo, but most is now produced from shale. While shale has high porosity that can hold a lot of hydrocarbons, another characteristic is its very poor permeability or restriction to fluid flow within the rock resulting in steep production decline. To compensate, the industry drills horizontally in the producing formation and employs extensive hydraulic fracture treating which exposes massive wellbore surface area to flow. The result is very high initial production rates, but over short time periods the low permeability dominates, rapidly accelerating productions declines. To compensate for this, industry drills more wells resulting in high investment cost and lots of high paying blue-collar jobs. If not already there, we will eventually end up with diminishing returns, and once the peak is reached, the decline will be steep, again as a result of the low permeability. That’s the bad news; the good news is most of the hydrocarbons are left behind for potential technology developments to make going after them possible.
People have criticized the petroleum aspects of Trump’s “deals” as being improbable for other countries to meet their obligations, I submit it may be improbable that the US will be able to uphold our end of the “deals”. Alienating Russia with their vast hydrocarbon reserves in conventional higher permeability more efficient reservoirs may be a colossal failure for the record books. The US citizen will pay, not the likes of Trump.
Yes shale oil will peak soon. A lot depends on the price of oil though. At current prices there isn’t enough profit in shale oil to expand production. Breakevens are in the mid to high $60s for new wells. But if oil prices went back to $80+, we would get more drilling and more production for a few years before we run out of tier 1 locations and move to tier 2 locations.
With low oil prices, the number of drill rigs continues to fall as a result. Oil rigs have dropped from 450 to 410 over the last year. To maintain current production requires around 440 rigs. So with just 410 rigs working, oil production will see a decline within the next year. But it is not a “fast” decline as you imply.
Fortunately, both Canada and Mexico have lots of oil we can buy over the next 50 years; though Mexico needs help in producing it. That’s why its important to maintain friendly relations with them.
You are correct with your reply except Mexican oil production has fallen from about 2.5 million BPD in 2012 to around 1.6-1.7 million BPD recently. Canada on the other hand has a lot of heavy oil in Alberta primarily. With Trump’s tariff shenanigans, they have been accelerating moves to export more oil via a new pipeline to the west coast and increase volumes to their refineries in Ontario via another new pipeline. After Biden Administration cancelled the Keystone pipeline permit 4.5 years ago, Canada paralleled an existing large diameter KMI pipeline from Alberta to the Vancouver area.
The point here is when we screw around with Canada’s oil exports to America, they respond in their own best interest and it undermines a close safe crude supply for the US, and processing and return of refined hydrocarbon products to Canada. Way to go Biden and Trump, a perfect example of putting America first, NOT.
Yep. And as I said, Mexico needs help with oil production. They have lots of oil, but suck at producing it.
And wait to the Canucks turn off the electrical power flows into the USA.
An empty threat. Both countries exchange many forms of energy in both directions across our border. Whether it is electricity, natural gas or oil, it is hard for one area of Canada to cut the US off, while another area of Canada remains dependent on US energy. Our economies are integrated to such an extent that we both need each other. Yes, we get more energy from Canada than we send them, but that doesn’t matter if you are a Canadian living somewhere that relies on US electricity. We also have pipelines that cross borders both ways.
As the dismembered Dark Knight would say, it’s but a flesh wound.
Regarding the value of Trumps signature?
Since he uses it in the context of a young girl’s pubic hair?
Nothing, Trump’s signature and word is worthless. He and his sycophants should be purged from all levels of our government.
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… and put into those new camps FEMA is building, where they will be forced at gunpoint to learn critical thinking.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.
The tariffs are a substantial new source of revenue for the federal government. The budget may start to depend on it.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit. – The New York Times (archive.ph)
Only in the short run.
In the long run tariffs raise costs for our manufacturers, lower profits and are a predatory tax. The tariffs also act as a de-facto regulatory structure designed to force or coerce US companies to relocate to our higher cost market. In many cases they simply moving over seas and selling their products to the growing world markets.
Job losses are mounting and construction projects are stopping in their tracks.
US oil and gas drilling rig counts have fallen for thirteen weeks in a row and the Permian basin is reaching peak production this year. Job losses in the oil patch are mounting.
We did bomb Iran into submission and have their oil resources to steal. I suppose if you are a war mongering neocon, you’d celebrate the killing spree the US and Israel are on in the Middle East.
Who is Trump working for?
NOT AMERICA!
Short term tariff income does not replace long standing trade relationships or the world allies we had before Trump and his palace of perverts from Mar a la la go took over.
“We did bomb Iran into submission and have their oil resources to steal. I suppose if you are a war mongering neocon, you’d celebrate the killing spree the US and Israel are on in the Middle East”
Iran will eat out lunch, and turn Israel into glass if Trump or Bibi try any more nonsense.
The tariffs are a very regressive tax hitting the poorest the most. It would have been less disruptive to the economy to take the same amount of money being generated by the tariffs and tax the highest income people that amount. Their consumption would barely be affected and the poorest wouldn’t be affected and neither would businesses.
Not surprising, this is governace by and for the ultra wealthy.
Mass application of 2nd amendment is starting to look like the only way out. Luigi showed the way, but we need millions of him.
Unfortunately you’d run out of rich people’s money very quickly.
Current tariffs are generating 20+ billion a month or 200+ billion a year. All the rich people in the US combined don’t make 200 billion a year so even if you taxed them at 100% you couldn’t get close to that amount of money,
Communists always bicker between themselves about how to allocate other peoples’ wealth, do they not?
… especially as other sources of tax revenue dry up as the rest of the economy collapses because of the tariffs.
Nothing more hilarious than a person – or country – with delusions of grandeur. American neocons: “That’s not fair. we need those rare earths to build the weapons to fight China!”
The Lord Shall Provide?