The Fed revised June consumer credit lower by 11.7 billion to -4.3 billion but revolving revised up.
Consumer Credit Revisions
Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
Those are annualized numbers.
Growth looks huge but it’s misleading. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) growth that matters to GDP, not the nominal chart above.
Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
Real revolving, total, and nonrevolving consumer credit are all below pre-pandemic levels.
Real nonrevolving excluding government (excluding student loans), is above pre-pandemic levels.
Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
Turndowns in real revolving credit are recessionary.
Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
Real revolving credit peaked this cycle at $1.087 trillion in October 2024. It fell to $1.039 trillion in December of 2024.
Since December 2024, real revolving credit has flatlined.
Real Consumer Credit Percent Change from Year Ago
Year-Over-Year Real Credit Details
- Revolving credit negative negative 8 straight months since December 2024.
- Total credit negative 10 straight months since October of 2024.
- Nonrevolving credit negative 25 straight months since June of 2023.
- Nonrevolving credit excluding consumer loans negative 20 straight months since December of 2023.
Revolving credit did not participate in the overall March bounce.
People are paying off their mortgages faster than they are buying new homes, taking out home improvement loans, and other lines of credit.
Every bit of this is recessionary.
Notably, this Fed data is very stale. It’s September 8 and we are looking at credit data for July.
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New French Prime Minister just announced. It is Sébastien Lecornu who is very close to Macron but more on the right side than the left. He is 39 years old and a sovereigntist as many young are today. Le Pen is ok with him. I had thought that Macron would go for a lefty but I was wrong and happy to be wrong on this one. We will see how he works out. A hint for you. The priority is no longer debt although it remains important. The priority is internal and external defense.
The pendulum swings to the right.
Hamas leaders in Qatar.
with their U.S$sss expensive clothing & jewlery for the wives and sipping cocktails while they leave the palestinians to slaughter.
Its actually worse because remember when they were actually led back there a few months ago?
Wow, I can’t believe I’m lucky enough to live through a second, even worse 2008. Think we should get learning Chinese or is it too soon?
I remember in the late 1980s people were saying you just had to learn Japanese because they were the future. They turned out not to be.
I was about to try to correct you and say China is much younger than us only to look and see China population is not younger than the U.S. I was surprised by that, are you?
Of course now China population is 99.124589699% Chinese with no allegiances other than China and our population is made up of peoples 30 & under with allegiances elsewhere and even saying America first gets you called a racist nazi MAGA so how the hell are we supposed to compete?
My son & I plan on learning Mandarin and he knows a little Spanish.
In reality we Americans are the ones that mostly speak only 1 language right?
English is the worlds language of business (and computer programming).
Learning another language is very handy for traveling and a virtual requirement for jobs in some areas (southern parts pf Florida/Texas/California). But English will remain the most important language for your and your son’s lifetime because of it’s business and computer usage.
Exactly, when the Slovenian and Spaniard finished 1-2 in a Vuelta stage the other day, what language did those two speak to each other? Everyone gets ONE GUESS and you must get this right.
you missed my point. 1/2 the world is multi lingual but us.
Do me a favor, make sure send an email to 10 of the 14 million people that came in here the last 4 years illegally that don’t speak fluent enough to get employed English.
I was not infering english is not the primary language guys but learning mandarin or spanish sure isn’t going to hurt you is it?
No I wasn’t because I already knew. China’s demographics are terrible and are getting worse. For the moment they are middle income and the question will be will they break out into high income or remain stuck in the middle. Strangely enough China’s productivity per capita mirrors that of Japan pre WW II, that is to say between 4-7 times lower and that gap has not lowered much in the last fifteen years. Granted China has a much higher population but the marginal efficiency of that population has to be taken into account meaning each additional unit of investment gives less and less efficiency advances. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were able to surge past this barrier because of unfettered access to the US market. China might have to do with access only to SE Asia, Russia and Africa who have much less money to spend and offer much lower margins for Chinese companies.
I remember that!
When the going gets rough, the Americans get spending.
Give us this day
Our discount outlet merchandise
Raise up an autoplex
And we will make a sacrifice – Billy Joel
As only a woman would know……………………JOKING!!
Yes. My husband brags that his wife spends…..to the savings account. I was smart and wanted to travel during retirement. Our next vacation is 16 days in Hawaii.
My wife is the real miser in our family. She doesn’t like to spend even on herself. I am more “easy come easy go”. We complement each other exactly. She makes sure we save. I make sure we make more so she can pack it away.
Bush II
Are you referring to Bush the Lesser?
You misspelled borrowing
Just came back in from morning chores and organizing the workers. I see gold is sitting at $3,690 and the mining stocks are continuing their ascent. The upward curve on gold looks downright parabolic!
With global credit spiraling upwards it probably has a long way to run before some sort of currency crisis shocking world markets…
Yet, the stock market continues to tick upwards and the VIX remains complacent.
Reminds me of that old saying “The market can remain irrational longer than some can remain solvent”.
We live in interesting times!
>
The Trump economy: jobs -911,000
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jobs-report-revisions-september-2025-.html
Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimate.The numbers, which are adjusted from data in the quarterly census and reflect updated information on business openings and closings, add to evidence that the employment picture is weakening.
Quick, fire whoever reported this and the problem will go away!
What’s a million jobs here and there ?
This was mostly under Biden since it’s 2024 revisions.
Imagine what things are going to look like next year when 2026 does the 2025 revisions. That’s when we’ll see what’s going on right now.
And they wonder how the phrase Trump Derangement Syndrome got created?????
I always thought it was used when conservatives had no original thought of their own, else they’d use something superior to an ad hominem, an idea of their own.
Well it would help if someone got their facts right and blame the president that was in charge 80% of those days.
I’m not a conservative. I was actually a Democrat for a larger portion of my life until your party went off the deep end
You guys turned trump who was once a democrat and wait for it……………..a Kennedy……..to the republican side.
More are coming over. You’re party is not as popular as you think.
No we won’t. Trump’s newly sycophant BLS will print the jobs gain that Trump decides we had in 2025.
The federal gov, states gov, municipalities and their contractors are about 22/23 millions. In the last 4 years they expanded the most. They cut their bloated payroll to pay realized promises. Nonfarm payroll is up 22K
Turned out that there is a big problem with the way the data is collected. We talked about it before and it is not a new problem. Hopefully the new people will come up with a credible system and replace the one that has lost all credibility.
Trump will be given a menu off of which he can order however many job gains he wants
Is that your way of deflecting from the Biden economy? Good grief man.
So that report is for Bidens economy of 9 months and 19 days and for Trump its 71 days…….Of which 71 of those days the swamp liberal democrats with the media and every NGO started protesting
That’s why the term Trump Derangement Syndrome got created
These numbers are for April 2024 to March 2025. Trump was President for only 2 1/3 months of this.
The Information Age ended in 2016. We are now in the Bullshit Age. Time to cruise the bullshit superhighway!
This market reminds me of the saying on how you go bankrupt;slowly at first then suddenly. I think there will be a meltup and then a black swan type event to get the ball rolling.
Don’t trust King George. He is stuttering. DX will rise against him and win !
You mean Charles III? Are you proposing we free Canada from the British monarchial yoke? I hear he put a tax on tea. Intolerable!
No matter the data: BUY BUY BUY!
That would have been the correct advice ever since Trump came into office.
1 to 4 family mortgages debt in Q1 2025: $13.5T. Last year: $13.0T, up $0.5T. Q2 release on Sept 11. Consumers are cutting c/c debt as fast as they can, even with a budget deficit, bc c/c debt bites the most. Cutting c/c debt first, before other debt, cure the pain. When JP will cut rates, and the new fed will keep them low, lower rates, tariffs, student loans, higher payroll taxes… the budget deficit will be cured fast. TGA is rising to preempt a gov shut down on Oct 1st. Total mortgage debt, including: residential, multi family, nonfarm and farm: $21T, up from $20.4T a year ago.
Oh yes, the tariffs inflation is about to hit but I’m sure the politburo will sweep the bad news under the rug. A guy named Doug is gonna be eating a lot of crow.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/new-tariff-rules-bring-maximum-chaos-as-surprise-charges-hit-consumers.html
The only mistake was electing clowns to office. The rest is history and you reap what you sow.
Got inflation protection?
Got exit strategy?
UPS, Fedex, Amazon, USPS and DHL rob people and small businesses. They are slowing down, cutting hours. After raising prices they cannibalized each other. When their shipping cost deflates consumers will pay less. The healthcare and the insurance co expanded and charge too much. They already cannibalized themselves. When they will cut prices and premium consumers will pay less. The US GDP will deflate. Tariffs might accelerate this process. More pharma and other stuff in the US. Less shipping from dot to dot will reduce cost.
Here you go, disparaging free markets and begging for communism again.
Looks like crow is eating you. The drop in numbers started under Biden, your love object and not under Trump. Your example is risible because the only computer parts made by Germany are only in specialized gaming computers used by maybe a few thousand fanatical gamers and are a bit market not worth mentioning. They are great hand-crafted computers but hardly anything important. It’s like complaining the price of spare parts for 1960 vintage Porches.
Let’s be honest about this. War is brewing and it might break out so the idea of having an independent Fed in this particular international conjuncture is more than ludicrous. It is highly dangerous.
“So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late.”
When federal troops invade and occupied Chicago the murder rate will rise. SPX will plunge. Trump will be stuck in the mud. The Fed will cut. It will spread. No vax. MPO45 will escape in his yacht.
You mean his rowboat.
One of the more disturbing things I see on YouTube and other social media are people giving up on making payments on debt. Many have lost their jobs and are just throwing up their hands and saying they won’t be paying their credit cards or loans. If that catches on and picks up steam, the banking system could face another liquidity crisis.
The Fed cutting rates won’t help these folks.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS
If I was them and in debt like that I would do the same. President Multiple Bankruptcies has shown the way.
That’s why bankruptcy laws exist. Some places are harder than others. In California it is hard. In Georgia it’s easy. If you don’t like the laws and think they are too lenient then vote to change the laws instead of complaining..
Lenders will also tighten their lending standards. Probably won’t lend unless FICO is 700 or higher
The people that don’t pay their debts will pay for it later when they won’t find a landlord to rent to them or a lender to finance buying a car
Whew what a great day on the farm! Sooooo much work accomplished!
Higher summertime vacation spending is pretty typical. Our drunken spenders were out there and partying like its 1999~
With so much doom and gloom on the horizon, I think people just wanted to get away from it all.
I was having a talk with one of my kids about retirement planning and his whole attitude questioned the viability of even possibly retiring. I explained that most people that can’t retire are in that predicament because they didn’t start with a plan when they were young.
This kid lived through 9/11, GFC 2008, pandemic 2020, and will see the next big stock market crash in 202x, all in just two decades. Heck, he may see another nuclear war soon enough. I don’t blame him.
Im sure there were people in the 1920s who thought they could retire too.
US Life expectancy was 54 years in 1920. Retirement wasn’t a big concern back then.
Grandparents suddenly look young to me now and I am in my 70’s. I wonder why?
Then why did FDR sign the Social Security Act of 1935 which was expressly made to limit old-age poverty since it was present and visible everywhere?
Fundamental questions of uncertainty in human life: eat now or later? Eat well or sleep well? I.e., discount the future how much? In my day, we had Cold War (nuke fears), inflation, decline in US power (Iran Revolution), arrival of AIDS ….
I’m not equating now to then, but making the point of fundamental uncertainty across a large time span.
In the late 50’s/ 60’s women didn’t want to make babies, bc Nikita will kill them in a nuclear bomb: gen x is down. In China women couldn’t have babies, especially girls, bc the communist killed them. They still kill babies in Xiangjing.
I know a ton of people that actively retired well and enjoyed or are enjoying many years of health and relative wealth. Plan ahead and build wealth!
The rampant pessimism that pervades common discourse amidst such staggering prosperity amazes me.
Work hard, and smart, build profitable businesses and sell them. Build sweat equity through buying worn homes and freshening them of low cost housing and profit… Buy a worn out farm and build it back up!
C-mon kiddies, it’s just not that hard if you develop some skills and show up every day!
Is “retirement” really all that desirable any way? I never want to sit on my ass allegedly “retired”. I want to go out having lived every day to the fullest and slide into my grave sideways, worn out, shouting and laughing!
“Woo Hoo”. “What a Ride”.
OOPS! “freshening them FOR low cost housing and profit.
the last folks to have hunger as an issue in usa was in the 30s dustbowl and depression. anyone born past 100 years hasn’t had a thing to worry about in amerika, that is not rich world problems.
.
Hoping the Luigi Mangione retirement plan becomes a thing.
You mean going to jail for life and being enjoyed by your cellmates all paid for by the government? I pass.
Young adults don’t save or plan ahead. They don’t think about long term job loss or unexpected medical expenses.
Retirement for the farmers and physically demanding full time jobs for a life time, sure retirement.
Retirement for most Americans today is over rated, maybe not even a healthy thing to do.
If you have had a full time office job and or one that has almost zero physically labor your whole life and weekend warriors dont count why not keep going? Hell between working from home and not dealing with traffic we are becoming soft. I include myself in that.
And if you love what you do? Why stop doing it?
That’s why parties were invented.
Never underestimate the consumer’s tendency to spend as long as there is available credit. Buy now, pay later is seeing rapid growth. Enjoy today and worry about paying for it later.
May as well if you know you’re going to get bailed out and forgiven.
There won’t be a bailout or for forgiven. They may be able to file bankruptcy but will pay for it later.
Wow, definitely looks recessionary. Of course, we won’t have an official designation for months.