Economists missed this result by miles. 
The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for February 2026 shows an unexpected decline in personal income and a big decline in real (inflation adjusted income).
Personal Income and Real Personal Income Month-Over-Month
- Personal Income: -0.1 percent
- Real Personal Income: -0.4 percent
- Real Disposable Personal Income: -0.5 percent
- Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers: -0.4 percent
The Bloomberg econoday consensus opinion was for personal income to rise 0.4 percent in a range of +0.2 percent to +0.4 percent. No economist came close.
Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers
Q: Why the green highlights on Real PI Excluding Transfers?
A: That’s the number the NBER follows to call recessions.
For the last three months, Real PI Excluding Transfers has been -0.1 percent, +0.1 percent, and -0.4 percent.
Personal Current Transfer Receipts (i.e PCTR or transfers) are government payments for which no current services have been performed.
Examples include Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, disability payments, and food stamps (SNAP).
Real Personal Income and Real Disposable Personal Income
Trump and Biden unleashed a huge wave of inflation with free money handouts. All were paid under Biden, but Trump signed the first bill. The third and largest handout was totally unwarranted and did the most damage.
Year-over-year CPI Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June of 2022, about 15 months following the end of the record stimulus.
Real Personal Income and Real Disposable Personal Income Detail
If it feels like you are not getting ahead, here’s the simple explanation: You aren’t getting ahead.
Real personal income, Real PI excluding transfers, and real DPI are all lower than they were in April of 2025.
Earlier today I noted the second consecutive set of downgrades to fourth-quarter GDP.
For discussion, please see Significant Downgrades to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP, What Happened?
Looking ahead, inflation from the war in Iran is going to weaken real incomes and real GDP. The Fed may be forced to hike rates.
The war has been a disaster on many fronts.
And the Fed is in a difficult spot. The only way the Fed will cut rates is if demand destruction from job losses is sufficient to reduce the inflationary impacts of war and tariffs.
This is not a good economic setup for the average person regardless of what it does for corporate profits.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
Addendum
A new reader asked “Did you post articles like this during the Biden Administration?”
I replied Why don’t you search my blog for “Biden Inflation” without the quotes and see for yourself.
There you go. I made it easy for you. Click on the link above.
This has never been about “peace”. It is about US – Israeli victory, dominance and stabilizing the region on our terms. No more pussyfooting around. This cease fire is a resupply, acquire new targets and a bit of a rest for the soldiers carrying the load.
The bombing resumes in 3-2-1…
I’d say $10 trillion and five years should do it. Huge windfall profits for the Defense/War industries and big oil.
Plant a garden, eat healthy and grow popcorn. After it’s over, perhaps we can invest in our own infrastructure and building America. I’m kind of tired of trying to figure out what is real as far as who the good guys or bad guys are. Both are killing for their theocracies and I’m far more christian than muslim in my values…
Carry on!
back to evil immigrants
Trump posts a “truth” screed about immigrants plus a video showing a woman getting beaten to death with a hammer
Melania has press conference where she says she never knew Epstein or Maxwell despite buddy/buddy photos and emails
What is in the offing???
It does feel so weird…her coming out and saying she had no relationship with Epstein. Photos and emails be damned. It does feel like they are being preemptive. Trump says he did not what she would say. Bullshit!! He monitors everyone’s behavior. No one really understands why this speech happened. So…something is brewing regarding Epstein.
We’re wondering if Pam Bondi was protecting people? And she’s gone.
Just the timing of this…..
Of course Bondi was frantically protecting people.
Just she got fired because she was not protecting them enough.
Keep in mind the timing, just as Operation Epstein Fury was winding down. Total coincidence, no doubt.
Trump is now complaining that the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t seem to be open and professes surprise and outrage that Iran is charging ships to get through the strait.
Iran clearly said they would not be opening the strait until Israel stops bombing Lebanon. Trump will either have to get Israel to stop or call an end to the ceasefire. Of course, Israel attacked Beirut deliberately to sabotage the deal.
What’s with Trump hating on his own clan?
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/nut-jobs-trump-goes-scorched-earth-on-megyn-kelly-tucker-carlson-and-other-major-maga-critics-in-jaw-dropping-post/
“I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs,” wrote Trump on his Truth Social platform, adding:
MAGA on MAGA hate an inevitable outcome of a group filled with hate. Read that quote Trump carefully and you may see Trump’s own projecting in real-time!
Trump hates criticism, but particularly hates criticism from his former supporters. So he does what he does best, insults and belittles them. Trump calling others nut jobs and troublemakers is hilarious.
The tide is turning, the beginning of the end of Trump has arrived.
Another Trump version of Hitler In The Bunker.
Tucker gonna get locked up before Hillary will.
bit ya, ebery accusation is an admission. up to and including the Epstein accusation
Iran has informed Pakistan it will not attend peace talks before a ceasefire is reached in Lebanon, according to a source cited by Fars News Agency.
Interesting. Fars is also denying reports that the Iranian negotiation team has already landed in Islamabad.
Breaking – Melbonium doesn’t know anything about the Wexner – Epstein Modeling Agency and Matchmaking Service.
Blondie pictures at parties in Florida in 2007 with Epstein in attendance.
Let he who has not randomly sent Ghislane a warm message, signed “Love, Melania”, cast the first stone
Given how inconsistent shrinking real income is with positive present real GDP growth, it is intriguing how buoyant and over-priced the stock market remains. Even implying an unwarranted optimism that the Trump-Israeli war will have mild consequences for the global economy. I think that is an insane bet; I think it will be devastating in time.
The stock market is buoyant because corporate profits are at all time highs and continue growing. Corporate America has successfully implanted the inflation mindset in people’s heads so they expect increasing prices. Monopolistic behavior and a complete lack of federal intervention have put US corporations in a great position for continued profit growth. Not to mention increased productivity due to technology investments, massive corporate tax cuts, corporate buy backs, and massive Trumpian deficits. It may be the greatest time in history to be invested in US markets. No other investment gives this kind of stable return.
Mishelin star for mentioning corporate profits. “No other investment gives this kind of stable return.” And now you know you need to be on the money train to stay ahead of inflation.
You know the game, now name the play!
all that money has to go somewhere. the stock market soaks up excess funds
Since the Donald has started WW3 and Europe is essentially cooked, China dependent on Gulf oil and Russia a hot mess where else does money go??
Money printing does indeed inflate investment asset prices, but in time when CPI inflation reveals the deceitfulness of money printing, real profits shrink. Witness real personal income shrinking for the most recent month. Real retail sales are flat to down since Apr 2021. That doesn’t translate into growing corporate profits. It is at the stage that the stock market ought to be anticipating that.
Personally i thought the third covid check was a bit much. At the same time i can understand the caution of starting things back up. I would think they were relying on some form of data to make a judgement call. I guess its easy to make the call in hindsight. Would be complaining if brought people back to work early and the hospitable s got overloaded. Guess we will never know.
Both sides buying votes.
speaking of where is my 500.00 doge ck from all the doge cuts; and my check from all the tariff money that was raked in??
Amazon HQ exec pay packets deflateC-suite forced to take sandwiches into work, cycle home
https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/09/amazon_execs_pay_packet_pinch/
I said inflation would skyrocket months ago, now you can add to that with war inflation. The inflation will surpass the last peak just like it did when Volker had to hike to 20%. Then it was Vietnam, now it’s Iran.
The debt in the 70s was a fraction of today so you can look forward to a massive market collapse, stock, property & everything you can imagine will collapse in price, a financial crises of epic proportions & spiking yields. The pain will be proportionate to the corrupt & delusional policies of government & central banks in the last 26 years which is colossal.
The debt that will become worthless will kill money at a rate never seen before in history & create the biggest deflationary period ever seen.
Almost guaranteed that Taco will implement price controls before the midterms…
Didn’t you mean inflationary instead of deflationary?
The latest SS snapshot is out and we now have 75,342m socialists screaming for more free money. The cost is now $137b/month and climbing. When free money handed out to a socialist they take that money and put demands on the economy while contributing nothing in return. It’s 75.3m today and will grow to 80m in a few years, that alone should be a huge inflation worry to everyone but then throw in stupid wars, wasteful gov spending on everything else and it won’t end well.
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/
Demographic death spiral continues – aging population, low birth rates and no immigration for the bigots/racists. By the end of the year you will be able to hear the howls and whining from the socialists from the moons of Jupiter screaming for more money because they can’t make their ends meet on social security.
Only solution to it all is a good exit strategy…got one?
I have no skin in the game , for obvious reasons, but does your claim also refer to retirees drawing their state pensions. I would add the US pension is considerable more than i will get here at age 67. I don’t consider myself a socialist because I insist on drawing what is, by US standards a meagre pension and i paid into the pyramid scheme for many years.
The Chinese have capitalism chinese style. We have socialism US style…
School District Assistant Superintendents in suburban Chicago get $300,000 / year pensions these days. “After all, a promise is a promise © “
Haha the funny part every red blooded fox loving republican voter is a socialist when it comes to ss and medicare. Try to explain that pretty much every tax and deduction on taxes is a socialist program.
Ss/ medicare / property tax that goes to teaching everyone else’s kids. Etc.
Bottom line is everyone has their hand out to the government. They just cry fowl when the money / or program does not benefit them.
They take a third of my pay, and I expect something in return.
Here’s a pro tip.
The max social security tax is $185,500 for 2026. @6.2% = $11,439 you pay for SS annually.
TLT pays yield of 4.49% and current price is $86.80. You buy 3083 shares for $267k and earn $12k annually from the taypayer to offset what the taxpayer took from you.
Even better if you load up on municipal bonds and avoid taxation altogether.
For every nickel or dime the gov takes from you, you take it right back baby!
“When free money handed out to a socialist they take that money and put demands on the economy while contributing nothing in return.”
Are trust fund kids who don’t have to work considered to be socialists? How about people whose investments doubled or tripled over some period, so they quit their jobs and live off the interest? Or is it only people who were forced by the government to give a substantial part of their income to the government and get it back if and when they get old?
I was a wild-eyed libertarian when I graduated college in 1984. Then I grew up and started considering questions like these.
Libertarianism suffers from the same vulnerability that kills every other ideology… unlimited human greed.
They’re socialists because they are collecting what they paid into Social Security, effectively at the point of a gun? And while being robbed of a decent rate of return for all the years they paid in? Bullshit.
This is repeated over and over again here on Mishtalk and it’s not true. If you paid social security back in 1986 or whatever year, YOUR money went directly to a socialist leech in 1986.
If you are collecting social security TODAY, the person paying for that is ME or some other working stiff sucker.
Some day into the far future, if it still exists and I choose to sign up as a socialist the person paying for my SS will be some worker in the year 2040 or whatever year I’m collecting not me.
And then there’s the fact that so many that never contributed (stay at home wife) collect so who paid for their SS?
Lastly, riddle me this TD, if you paid for it and there is supposed to be some type of “account” with your name on it and it’s fully funded then WHY THE F**K is it going insolvent in 2033?
What the hell ever. I paid in. I am someone who will always be a net payer. And IDGAF when my money went to a recipient. I care that MY money was taken, all 12.4% of it every year, and I care that I get that money back . Why don’t you go have a “profitgasm” and chill out.
Oh, and I never said there is supposed to be some type of account with my name on it. Save that “counterargument” for someone who does. I know full well what happens in 2033. Bottom line, my “contributions” were taken from me at effectively gunpoint, because that is what government is, and I want back what I was forced to pay in. Which doth not makest me a socialist.
if the money i paid in went directly to a socialist leech, why does the SS trust fund have $2.72 trillion dollars in asset reserves?
in the 1908s, when my SS taxes went up, the CG tax rate went down. It would also appear that my SS taxes helped fund that tax break
re: “Year-over-year CPI Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June of 2022, about 15 months following the end of the record stimulus.”
Y-o-Y inflation peaked 24 months after the all-time surge in money flows, the volume and velocity of money, in Nov. 2020.
It was simply textbook.
I’m a somewhat new reader. This is unfortunately true. Question – Did you post articles like this during the Biden Admin ?. I’m sure you did.
Why don’t you search my blog for “Biden Inflation” without the quotes and see for yourself.
Kudos for your patience with the world around you.
what is “Google”?
Well yes he did and there were armies of Trumpers here piling on and bashing biden nonstop calling him “Sleepy Joe” and insinuating he was covering up the Epstein files nonstop. All were begging for a Trump win and they got it.
And guess where we are now….lol! The smart ones are begging for impeachment, the dumb ones keep getting dumber.
The realistic ones are begging for a debilitating stroke or brain aneurysm which has a better chance of happening than impeachment.
The taco economy is alive and well.
This is not really news. This has been going on, strongly, since 2008. Perhaps even 2001.
I am going to disagree somewhat. Noting that inflation is very individual depending upon your lifestyle, I know I’ve personally kept well ahead. But, and this is a huge but, I haven’t bought a new house since 2001. New, big houses are more expensive in every possible way: mortgage payments, utilities, insurance, etc… I even take a much higher deductible on my insurance to keep the annual price low. But my brother bought the big house, pays full freight on insurance, and gets a new pickup every 6 years or so. His current one cost $65k. No way he is keeping ahead.
Just wait until those types go to the government to try and get the government to tax your ant wealth and give it to the free-loading grasshoppers. When that day comes, I will gladly offer to have my wealth taxed and given to the grasshoppers if in return the *fun* the grasshoppers had for all the years I was saving and delaying gratification is taxed and given to me.