The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has been above 2 percent since March of 2021.
CPI and PCE Year-Over-Year Percent Change
- CPI: 2.4 percent
- CPI Less Food and Energy: 2.5 percent
- PCE: 2.8 percent
- PCE Less Food and Energy: 3.0 percent
The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent. All four measures have been above 2.0 percent since March of 2021, 59 straight months.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE less food and energy. That’s currently the highest measure of the lot at 3.0 percent.
Every measure above is nearly certain to jump for the next two months due to war-related price increases on oil, gasoline, jet fuel, fertilizer, aluminum, and other commodities.
That’s not all. Trump’s attempts to get around the Supreme Court’s striking of his reciprocal tariffs rates to be more damaging than the reciprocal tariffs themselves.
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
On April 7, I commented Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
The Cleveland Fed updated the numbers today but they are little changed. For March the CPI forecast is 0.84 percent (no change), the PCE forecast is 0.62 percent, up from 0.61 percent.
Those are very hot readings that directly impact year-over-year numbers.
Real Personal Income Declines in February
Earlier today, I commented Real Personal Income Declines in February, You Lost Money to Inflation
Personal Income and Real Personal Income Month-Over-Month
- Personal Income: -0.1 percent
- Real Personal Income: -0.4 percent
- Real Disposable Personal Income: -0.5 percent
- Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers: -0.4 percent
Those are horrid numbers. Click above for more discussion.
Reader Comment
A reader asked “Did you post articles like this during the Biden Administration?” He sarcastically added “I’m sure you did”.
Well, yes, I did.
I replied Why don’t you search my blog for “Biden Inflation” without the quotes and see for yourself.
There was no reply back, confirming what I expected was a troll question.
Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates
On March 17, 2026 I noted Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates
Nothing changed for the better today.
Finally, on March 30, 2026, I noted Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
Powell’s warning was aimed straight at Trump.
But when year-over year inflation surges for the next two months, what will he will do about it?
With the dollar allegedly worth 3% of its 1913 value, the FED has failed greatly at maintaining stable prices, it’s actual mandate.
I always carry a Canadian silver maple leaf with me. I have tried many times to buy something with it, but the Somalia clerk has no clue. So, I get out the Master Card and move on.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said talks with the United States cannot begin until two key conditions are met: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.
In a post on X, Ghalibaf said both steps had been mutually agreed upon but remain unfulfilled. “A ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets must be implemented before negotiations can commence,” he wrote.
But JD Vance is on his way…is Iran going to stand him up? Lol.
I’m trying to figure out the admin’s play this weekend that will juice or squeeze markets on Monday. Will JD come back and say it was a great success, the Straits open, oil will go down and markets rally or will they announce “ending the civilization” and causing another hard leg down?
So many profitoonities out there!
Negotiations if they are serious will take more than a day. They will be quick if they are not serious.
It is incredible they were negotiating 6 weeks ago and the US could have easily had a much better deal.
please MIsh
post about today trump’s post about Carson, Owens etc
jesus!
esp i liked phrase = they dont have what it takes=
i think it is too rich for +3x divorcer, +6x times bankrupted NY real estate hustler!
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/trump-backlash-maga-commentators-1791117
It’s a MAGA eat MAGA world!
Yes putting in home is probably a good idea. Due to labor shortages and anti-immigration, care may be limited. Lol!
Candace is legit. Megyn a weathervane. The other 2 have always been limited hangouts. Dore / Metzger could see through Trump better than all of them.
Mr Sunshine says
*HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS
inflation of inflation expectations
VARNEY: Do you think we can open the straits and get the flow of oil going within the next two months?
HASSETT: Yes. Yes. Yes. We’ve got the A team going to Pakistan to negotiate with the Iranians.
inflation of expectations
vance, witkoff and Jared the A team?
thats funny.
Sure has, and its been well above the bogus contrived inflation numbers they put out too.
Since the prices of most things that real people need has doubled since 2020, that would be 20% inflation for the past 5 years roughly. Which seems right.
Its insane too, and an absolutely criminal robbery of the populace, but its very real.
With the horrible .9% M/M print today, if we assume an anemic floor in M/M prints for the next year at .2% (unlikely), the lowest Y/Y we’ll see for 12 months is basically 3.4-3.5% CPI. The only way rates can, at best, remain flat and not higher is if we see a series of below trend prints and there ain’t no way April comes in lower than .2!
These spikes in prices, even if seemingly short, lift the entire curve barring recession-induced deflation or pure shithouse luck, the latter of which ain’t bankable and the former is needed but undesirable.
People in the K-shaped economy gonna get more unhappy, the benefactors wondering how long to press and when to protect, the punished for, well, being hammered by inflation for decades with recent unrelenting intensity.
Turns out running deficits are inflationary, starting a war in the petroleum epicenter is bigly inflationary. Searching high and low for a benevolent deflationary force and see nothing. AI will likely bring a malevolence to the labor market and likely with a corporate leverage unwilling to lower prices until extreme pain brings even them too to heel.
Well there is a way, outright manipulation, the number can change as many times as needed to appease the clown. As many firings will take place as needed.
The price spikes from Trump’s War On Iran haven’t even hit yet.
The Covid crisis was exploided by the Democratic Adminisrative State in DC to DUMP Dollars on every voter NGO and Grant they could find– 100 ships off LA to unload the goods bought. Only problem prices jumped 100% in two to three years.
Congratulation now will live with a lower standard of living and can’t buy a house
But Trump was elected to fix all that, what happened? Is he a total failure?
Willy Jack, did you forget that the 1st stimulus was signed off by the Trump Regime before Biden came into office? feel free to pass blame but lets make sure we are sharing the blame correctly.
Did Democrats cause this too:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/consumer-sentiment-inflation-fears-iran-war.html
I mean repubs are in control of all branches of government right now so it must be democrats.
“I mean repubs are in control of all branches of government right now so it must be democrats.”
To listen to trumpers, you’d think that Team D is all-powerful.
Those mean democrats forced poor widdle Trump to do lockdowns or they’d take away his lunch money and give him a swirly?
How else are we going to monetize the debt?
Only bad Americans complain about inflation when Trump is the President, and, get ready, the best is yet to come.
An utter economic train wreck is in progress, just in time to hand off to the democrats and whine about how they broke it.
Again.
The interesting thing I see are two factions within the GOP and the democrats that have a common denominator: Israel.
Many people abandoned Kamala because of her Israel stance so there is now an anti-Israel and pro-Israel faction within democrat party. Mamdani winning NY is point of reference.
And on the GOP, there is also an anti-Israel and pro-Israel faction as evidenced by all the recent screeches from Trump on Tucker, Megyn, etc.
Will both anti and pro factions join forces?
Where elections go from here will be interesting but it won’t matter to me much, I’ve got an exit strategy from the whole circus.
Just me, but all of this would have been easily avoided if they had just given the Jewish people 1/2 of Bavaria.
Not holy enough.
BS. It’s the Mecca of Oktoberfest!
Reported this morning, headline CPI M/M number is 0.9%, annualized that is north of 11%. While the bad numbers will be volatile, per definition of inflation, not other things that change prices, I do not see things trending better without serious attention and government action to control its fiscal malfeasance.
Could you imagine an 11% annual CPI print….bwahahahah
Better yet, how about a 11% Social Security COLA…..BWAHAHHAAHHA
These 1970s Predictions for Inflation in 2026 Show Things Could Be a Lot WorseFor one, they predicted TVs would cost $11,200.
https://gizmodo.com/these-1970s-predictions-for-inflation-in-2026-show-things-could-be-a-lot-worse-2000735135
Probably not far off if they were still made in America.
If we keep screwing with china, those will be the only ones we can get.
Lol, CNBC this morning guest Pete Buttigeg is making Joe Kearn squirm and get hot headed. Joe trying to defend Trump and he makes no sense. Absolutely hilarious, find the clip on YouTube later for a good laugh.
Lol, CNBC
A spanking is a spanking.
Mish definition of inflation, “Inflation is an increase in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.” from: If the Velocity of Money Picks Up Will Inflation Soar? – MishTalk
Currently, the federal government is creating credit at the rate of 2 to 3 trillion dollars per year, and the cost to service the annual incremental deficit and the total debt is being fixed lower than free market price discovery by the fed quietly returning to QE (up $18.5 billion last week). The fed cannot fix the deficit or inflation problem by fixing interest rates lower, but it can help by forcing the fed to borrow from the private market. To reduce credit creation by the government, congress needs to balance the budget every year going forward. In my opinion, QE could be the most toxic “tool” in their toolbox.
The idea that Congress will ever balance a budget is quite laughable. We’re more likely to have a “Debt Jubilee.” Perhaps you have not realized we are past the Rubicon with our debt, but one day you will realize it.
I realize the problem and post on it frequently in this blog’s comment section. I realize that a vote buying congress is going to need enormous persuasion to do the right thing. I am not a complete defeatist and believe some way it will happen. As I have posted before in similar threads, congress has done it twice before each time with swift positive results.
In my understanding of the constitution, the US must pay its debts, but then what cannot be paid, will not be paid.
The constitution says nothing about the buying power of the debt repayments. I am amazed that so many investors are willing to tie their money up for 10 years for less than 4.5% annual interest.
Good point, but the framers also envisioned specie money that held its value, potentially a reason nothing said about buying power. I am amazed too about buying US debt, but not just 10 year, anything above 4 weeks with current destruction pf purchasing power.
Debt is sold in the form of Treasury bills, notes and bonds. Federal spending ends up in bank accounts giving banks enormous amount of cash. The banks use the cash to buy the treasuries to get a better return than just holding cash. Indeed, they’re limited by federal regulation to buy safe investments which treasuries are. There will always be a buyer for treasuries. The problem is the inflation resulting from deficit spending.
A Trumpstien never pays its debts.
The Fed is NOT engaging in QE. It’s adding to its reserves right now specifically for the upcoming tax payments to be paid all over the nation in the next week (and it’s talked about doing it for this reason if you want to look up the Fed minutes).
Check the reserve balance at the end of April. Monetary issues are bad enough without adding stuff that is not true/consequential.
Federal Reserve Board – Recent balance sheet trends
Click on 6 month time frame for a very clear picture.
H/T to Frosty for first posting the link to this graph.
Then maybe neither one of you knows what QE is – a massive intervention (not 1.6% in your six-month window) in purchases of non-Fed-typical long-dated financial assets like mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed is buying short-dated T-bills for a specific reason that it told the market about months ago.
You should read https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/05/update-on-the-feds-balance-sheet-and-its-reserve-management-purchases/ for a very good explanation.
Since wolf wrote the article fed balance sheet has expanded roughly $65 billion, you can call it whatever flips your switch, but the fed is buying federal debt. Long dated federal debt purchases was a form of QE called operation twist to exert fed rate fixing influence over long-term debt, still fed buying federal obligations, still the fed facilitating expansion of federal debt.
It’s no problem for me you calling this QE; I was just trying to help you make more sensible posts with your definitions in tune with the market around you.
That $65B addition is exactly in line with what the Fed said it was going to do ($40B additional each month through April). Want to see something more conspiratorial? No skin off my nose
And BTW, the Fed has been “buying federal debt” (especially short-term T-bills) for over a century. It’s called open-market operations and is the standard operating procedure for controlling/influencing the overnight Fed funds rate. You might want to look that up, too.
Good luck to you in the market
I’m not disagreeing with you, I just see the fed saying they are not doing what they are doing. I have looked in a few different places and nowhere was massive part of the QE description.
I agree the fed does open market operations mostly for fixing interest rates lower, but not always. I am not sure it has been standard operations for a century, it seems to me it would not be necessary if they let the market discover interest rates.
As for this being a planned operation, we will be able to tell in the coming weeks and months, however I suspect the fed has seen the whole economy under serious inflationary pressure for several months if not longer and I suspect they do not see it as transitory but systemic and beyond their ability to control without inflicting economic distress
Remember the Democratic mantra of five years ago: “transitory.”
You misspelled “The Fed mantra”
Funny how Fox News destroys the mind. How many folks remember how Biden crashed the economy when COVID started under his presidency?
After installing a former ISIS leader as Syria’ president,
…Former U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said Thursday that leaving NATO would not be about avoiding foreign entanglements but about siding with Israel in a potential future clash with Türkiye in Syria…
That makes sense. It never occurred to me.
Turkey? Lol. They can’t control a tiny strait 20 miles wide and now they want to start another fight? Let me know how that works out.
If that happens it’s going to motivate everyone world wide to start building/acquiring nukes.
xxx
I think that is already happening.
The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.
Nuclear blasts tend to be very bright.
Link?
i wonder ever we will see Brent under $75 for example?
or at least in 2027 and beyond
am I only who noticed that oil PRICES STOPPED paying attention to trump’s bs?
If you want to track Hormuz shipping disruptions:
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cc317ba850e34c4dadbead6f7b336fb1
pricing of brent and on local station is enough!
According to MarineTraffic data, 18 vessels have now crossed the strait since Tuesday’s announcement: 4 on Wednesday, 10 on Thursday and a further 4 on Friday (as of 8:00 ET).
Of those vessels, four – including one oil tanker – are Iranian-flagged. A further three have previously been sanctioned by the US for transporting Iranian oil. Among these is a Russian-flagged tanker sanctioned by the US in July 2025.
Inflation has inflated inflation.
Also,
Mortgage delinquencies just hit 4.3%.
That number is right in line with where we were in 2019, before the pandemic changed everything.
Oh, and incidentally, the same retard is running the United States.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (roughly):
1990 = 5.66%
2000 = 1.81%
2010 = 11.49%
2020 = 8.0%
2025 = 3.2%
Your point is?
Their ticking up…and on the way higher
I would agree, and much higher is the only place they can go. As job losses mount, AI takes its chunk or chunks if it advances as quickly as it appears at the moment.
It seems to be pushed very hard by the developers, and Manufacturers. Less wages, so more profit and/or a reduction in cost perhaps, but profits for the few, and how much of a reduction is questionable imo.
The inflationary move that we are looking at right now is without doubt the most profound of this generation. Do not be surprised when it hits 10% IMO>
Hormuz is not showing a substantial increase in shipping and primary production remains shuttered. Both feedstock and processing remain weeks if not months and in some cases years from re-starts. From what I can measure we lost 20% of global energy production and have been able to replace 6% of it.
The Federal Reserve has shifted monetary policy to QE again with $36 billion being injected in the last two weeks and $160+ billion injected since Dec 3rd.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
What ride this is going to be!
BTW, They will only be reporting 3-5%. But that is how they roll…
Hard assets baby!
= inflationary move that we are looking
inflationary /deflationary is one side of equation.
during great depression it was DEFLATION.
most important real income aka purchasing power
prices can be %down, but income even lower %wise, so it is inflationary!
Inflation Rates (roughly)=
2005 – 3.39%
2010 – 1.64%
2020 – 1.2%
2025 – 2.4%
10% would be Crazy High!
5 years of failure! I say we get rid of the Fed and allow Americans to choose what they want to use for money. As befits a free people in a free country.
LOL! Americans are waay too dumb to be allowed to do that.
lol. aint gonna happen
train went too far off station!
Finally those pokemon will be valuable!
Every single American can choose what they want to use for money. The problem is it requires multiple people to make the same decision.
If I choose gold (as the Constitution did), I’m taxed on every transaction in my life. Impossible.
Compound inflation has been above Fed target for 5 years. It is worse than CPI, it is compound CPI. It is compound dollar devaluation.
Well I decided to take a look and the posts and comments were all interesting. People blaming EVs, minimum wage hikes, grocery store greed, unions, the Fed, the President, congress, oil, the elite, dems/repubs and pretty much anything under the sun.
And now here we are with 20%+ of oil capacity disabled and maybe for a very long time which will likely lead to even higher inflation than most people have seen in their lifetime.
And the most incredulous things now is the $40T in debt, ballooning social program costs, ballooning military adventures and costs, and my favorite topic: demographic death spiral.
I saw my own comments there and it’s interesting how my thinking has evolved, I just don’t care what the cause is anymore, I just need to know how to stay ahead of the inflation wave like a good surfer. That’s why I focus on profits! profits! profits!
Being an asset owner of income producing assets is the only way to stay ahead. Owning gold was an alternative but who knows where gold goes from here since it’s been so volatile.
No need to guess where we’ll be 3 years from now, just take Mish up on his offer and read the articles from 3 years ago. It’s rinse and repeat, sink or swim.
Good luck hunting, gotta run and find some profits in the Asian markets.
– And now here we are with 20%+ of oil capacity disabled > I often hear the U.S. won’t be affected by much from the oil / gas shortages but I am not so sure about that…
– And the most incredulous things now is the $40T in debt > it’s insane and where will the resources come from, to pay it all down? We keep spending…
– ballooning social program costs, > they are as incredulous as the debt, and perhaps the primary reason for it?
– ballooning military adventures and costs > Unfortunately this spending will not be going away anytime soon. Even if we packed it all up, and left today, we still have years worth of money to be spent, doing all sorts of things to deter or prevent this from happening again, and helping to repair the damage caused.
– demographic death spiral. > Not sure how to address this either. All over the World (except Muslim) the rate of children is falling. I would guess cost alone is preventing it if planned, and abortion or allowed adoption are other alternatives being used of course, but maybe at a higher rate now?
>> This may be a problem everywhere (except Muslim) over the next few decades. It will take that long for the boomers to disappear, and the birth rate to pick back up, once things get more financially under control. That could take decades however, and would leave a massive hole for potentially that entire time period.
>>> $100 Minimum wages anyone… Isn’t a similar occurrence, the reason for the $20 Min Wage now? This could be far, far worse imho.
– it’s interesting how my thinking has evolved, > I am thinking “Survival Mode” has kicked into high gear, right about now…
– Being an asset owner of income producing assets is the only way to stay ahead. > Aging out is preventing self maintenance, and that can lopsided things quickly. I have hard sellable assets I can part with when needed, but those too are getting harder to move, as people just don’t have the cash. Looking for deals so they can do the same thing…
– Owning gold was an alternative but who knows where gold goes from here since it’s been so volatile. > Unless you can afford to “Hold onto it” for awhile, I would steer clear. When it drops next, it will be a tumble imo.
– No need to guess where we’ll be 3 years from now. > Same place, mostly the same issues, and more chaos as a result perhaps, but I would guess no place great, but maybe a little bit better than now perhaps?
– Good luck hunting, gotta run and find some profits in the Asian markets. > Best of Luck, and I mean that! Excellent Post by the way!!
Insightful.
3 percent is the new 2 percent. Few more years you will think its normal
80 is the new 50
It was the norm in the ’80’s and ’90’s. The 2% came along when US manufacturers moved everything to China. The massive deflation in goods offset the inflation in services. Tariffs fixed that for us.
The worst ” STAGFLATION WAVE “ is coming.
Leads to GOP in mid term – – –
Floggings will cotinue until morale improves!
Imagine thinking and positioning yourself as smarter and better than the lot of us while being wrong 5 consecutive years. Or as your recent post on service PMI prices showed–up 106 straight months! They jawbone and bloviate as much as the imperial grand poobahs (all past POTUSes) so as to keep the status quo going on their watch. Transitory. Contained.
a different version of the “rescue” mission in Iran
(by the way, where IS the rescued flyer?)
https://indi.ca/dumbkirk/
That was a great article. It makes Trump look like the new Jimmy Carter re: Iran. Jimmy Dore on YouTube had an Iran lego cartoon of their view of the failed operation (from Iran) and other funny commentary.
What a sad state of affairs. I think I know how the British felt when their empire collapsed.
Jimmy carter had balls enough to canoe bull sluice in an open canoe. I doubt any other president in my lifetime would do that.
Tell us the next time a President enters a canoe, that will be close enough
There would have been more tippy toeing if there was hostages. Carters rescue operation was professional. Turbine engines do not like sand. Sandstorms will even stop a camel.
You really think that was a great article? Based on what, the histrionic language or the narrative that doesn’t actually fit any of the evidence? If this was a huge failed operation and the Americans got caught in an ambush, why are there no bodies?
I’m irritated that I wasted time on that half baked shit
We don’t need to make shit up to prove that this was all an awful idea. It stands just fine on its own. That kind of conspiracy nonsense just clouds everything and makes the people pushing it seem unreliable.
It was a great article because it offered a different view from the common garbage we get everywhere else and it had gems like, this, “As Bikrum Gill has said, this is perhaps the first anti-imperial war (as opposed to anti-colonial). Iran is not decolonizing Iran here. They did that in 1979. They are de-imperializing the White Empire itself, which is a very different proposition.”
But ok, you didn’t like it, so what?
You want another view…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sySgSUEnpO4
Scott Ritter calls out the lies.
Ok good to know what your standard for information is: “entertainment”
It’s ALL entertainment or psyops, there is nothing in between.
That means you and someone like Stu are equally well-informed
Whatever it takes to keep the profits rolling. Working great for me so far so I’ll keep doing it. Have a great weekend, gas is only $4/gal. When you fill up, know that I’m collecting a bit of that action.
Indi is a sort of friend/correspondent of mine. He’s a cat person.
And will remain so until the taco recession hits.
“The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.”
― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
Sorry. Without passing judgement on the sentiment expressed, I can’t find where Lenin made this statement. Do you have a source you might provide? Thanks.
https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2013/04/15/fake-quote-files-v-i-lenin-on-inflation-and-taxation/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20way%20to%20crush%20the,%E2%80%94%20Vladimir%20Ilyich%20Lenin
and yet communists fuc11ked up USSR !