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Trump Announces an Iran Deal that Appears to Be a Complete Capitulation

Here we go again, another deal announcement and another denial by Iran. But …

Another Announcement

Truth Social: I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
May 23, 2026, 2:30 PM

Trump has a deal with Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Jordan, and Bahrain.

It seems to me the only important country is missing, Iran.

Q: What’s in the deal?
A: Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly.

Rubio

A Word About Time

Denial by Iran

Deal Is Near Finalization

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says a Deal for Talks With Iran to End War Is Near Finalization

President Trump said Saturday that a draft framework to shape future end-of-war talks with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near “finalization.”

Trump said the pact’s terms are “largely negotiated” and would be revealed shortly. His statement followed Saturday calls with Middle Eastern leaders and a separate conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The agreement, if completed, wouldn’t achieve Trump’s main goal of preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. But it would prevent the restart of a war Middle Eastern countries didn’t want and begin to alleviate a global economic crisis spurred by Iran’s closure of the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.

Trump has told aides and counterparts that he reserves the right to resume attacks on Iran should Tehran fail to abide by the temporary accord, U.S. officials said.

The framework Trump is on the precipice of accepting would give the U.S. and Iran 30 days to reach a final pact, though the timeline could be extended another month if needed, officials from the U.S. and mediating nations said. The spokesman for Iran’s negotiating team, Esmail Baghaei, earlier on Saturday said the 30- to 60-day time frame was reasonable.

Both sides got on the same page after Trump on Saturday afternoon spoke with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain. Trump then spoke with Netanyahu, who has long opposed diplomacy with Iran.

Iran has around $100 billion in assets frozen abroad, according to former U.S. officials and experts.

The nuclear issue remains the greatest sticking point. Washington wants the ultimate pact to include Iranian commitments for a long suspension of its nuclear program, potentially for 20 years, and a pledge to hand over its stockpile of near weapons-grade material to the U.S. Iran has balked at those conditions and said the nuclear issues should be addressed at a later stage, alongside broader sanctions relief.

“Trump has to decide between the uncertainty of escalation, and the certainty he will be criticized for taking a weak deal,” said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and adviser in negotiations with Iran. “No one has any idea which he will choose.”

Iran’s semiofficial Fars News pushed back against Trump’s statement on the Strait of Hormuz, saying a possible deal would leave Iran in control of passage routes, timing and permits. It would allow traffic volume to return to prewar levels, Fars reported.

Many of Trump’s political allies openly urged Trump to resume strikes on Iran instead of making diplomatic concessions.

There is widespread concern about the emerging deal in Israel. 

Israel isn’t a party to the negotiations with Iran, and has at times found itself frustrated by the lack of updates on the talks. Before the April cease-fire, Israel wasn’t happy that it got word that a deal was finalized at a late stage and wasn’t consulted, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Both Sides?

Is Iran no longer a a side in this deal?

Does not Israel have its own side?

Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

The Atlantic reports Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

The outlines of President Trump’s endgame in the Iran war are now emerging. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis. Trump may launch another limited strike to look tough and satisfy the demands of the war’s supporters, but it would be a performative gesture. Endgame in this case is a euphemism for “surrender.”

Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended.

Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions. [Rest Paywalled]

What’s In the Deal?

Expected Terms

EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL:

  1. Extension of Iran War ceasefire for another 60 days
  2. Strait of Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period
  3. Iran would be able to freely sell oil during the period
  4. US would lift blockade on Iranian ports and unfreeze some Iranian funds
  5. US would issue some sanction waivers on Iranian oil
  6. Draft MOU includes statement that war between Israel and Lebanon would end
  7. Negotiations would then be held regarding Iran’s nuclear program

The draft MOU includes commitments from Iran to never pursue nuclear weapons, negotiate over a suspension of uranium enrichment, and removal of its highly enriched uranium, US officials told Axios.

Believe What You Want

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/2058288757527212438?s=20

Believe what you want. But I will believe there is a deal as soon as Iran says there is a deal.

That said, Trump is desperate for a deal. It’s possible this is the real deal. And if so, it’s a total capitulation by Trump.

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94 Comments
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Tony Frank
Tony Frank
6 days ago

The only things that taco does consistently are lie and capitulate, his two main character traits.

FDR
FDR
6 days ago
Reply to  Tony Frank

And grift

‘Lil Mr.
‘Lil Mr.
6 days ago

Wow! What a deal! I can’t believe we ever doubted the deal maker in chief! 🤣🤣🤣

Bill
Bill
6 days ago

Always announced on weekends when regular market participants cannot address the move in the gap window. Also made after Memorial Day weekend began so the people he doesn’t care about harming (US citizens) could overpay for gas and all things tied to it. Begging the question, what the hell were the last 8 weeks for? Explains why markets have rallied–they already had the memo it was all for nothing.

Biggest own-goal in history and inflicted pain on every last entity on earth but ironically the least on Iran. My only upside take is that, if folks are paying attention, we now know that the trillions spent by the military can be eliminated since we cannot hold 21 miles of water allegedly defended/held by an infinitely underpowered opponent. Why would I believe OR FUND a War Department that can’t “win” a war against long-sanctioned Iran if those funds are supposedly used to be prepared for actions involving Russia or China or any other combatant.

My guess–they’ll convince us we need to spend even more.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago
Reply to  Bill

what the hell were the last 8 weeks for? I was asking the same after week 2

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago

Surprise! Trump continues to publicly negotiate with himself.

Trump finally realizes that Iran is not going to rush to sign an agreement to negotiate today.

So now Trump says that he is in no rush to sign a deal with Iran until its the right deal. There will probably not be any signed deal today. And he says the blockade will remain in place until a deal is signed.

So, much ado about nothing yet again.

MMchenry
MMchenry
6 days ago

To restate the basics of Trump capitualization: He’ll say that have some kind of capitualization by Iran on enrichment. But with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is mandated to monitor Iran’s nuclear program; Trump will have lost ALL verifiability of Iran’s enrichment.

Putting enrichment monitoring into reverse is the OPPOSITE of progress from the JCPOA. Getting rid of enrichmet oeversight (not to mention other capitualizations too) was beyond stupid to have gone to war over.

This will be classic putting lipstick on the pig. Vietnam had more success than this.

Last edited 6 days ago by MMchenry
PreCambrian
PreCambrian
6 days ago

As Louis Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research says, if you want a deal badly, you get a bad deal.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

Found on internet:
“Donald Trump has been the most successful War Leader in World History!
No one else has EVER decisively won the same war TWELVE TIMES in less than six months.
We are blessed.”

Shelmas
Shelmas
6 days ago

If the expected terms list of items is true, it seems good for Iran. Points 3, 4 and 5 are critical. Iran is running out of oil storage capacity. It is estimated to have about 25 to 45 days remaining storage at the current pumping rates. It cannot follow Kuwait’s example and continue to throttle down oil production rates for 2 reasons: 1) Iran needs the associated natural gas from the oil production to fuel its power generation capabilites and manufacturing, while Kuwait gets most of its gas from unassociated production fileds, and 2) Kuwait’s younger oil fields are much more resilient to a shut down than Iran’s mature fields, meaning Iran is much more likely to suffer sustrained damage from shutdown of its oil fields than is Kuwait. So if this deal happens Iran can start selling oil to generate revenue, and tankers can get back to Iran to start serving as off shore storage. This might be so benefical to Iran that they might have some flexibility around the Strait of Hormuz opening (maybe fees to be imposed at a future date). And the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear capabilities can then go on for ever. Trump doesn’t get much, but perhaps gas prices will recede over the next couple of months and he lessens the chances of a Republican bloodbath in November. Time is running out on that.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago

Senator Cory Booker said that he was “outraged” that the possible agreement does not deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Even Democrats are ridiculing and attacking Trump from the right.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Democratic Congressman Jim Himes:
“Apparently this deal may involve immediate sanctions relief. It’s hard to arrive at any conclusion other than the fact that because of the political toxicity of this war, President Trump has just surrendered.”

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago

The headlines on Drudge say Ted Cruz has his panties in a bunch so there must be a grain of truth to the whole Iran deal if Ted is triggered. We need AIPAC’s designated rep here, JoJo, to chime in and let us know what’s going on.

https://thehill.com/homenews/5893106-ted-cruz-iran-deal-concerns/

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) sparred with one of President Trump’s outside advisers on social media Saturday after indicating he was “deeply concerned” about the terms of an emerging deal between the U.S. and Iran.
“I am deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran ‘deal,’ being pushed by some voices in the administration,” Cruz wrote on the social platform X.

I guess for Israel this line finally became true for them but it applies to everyone.

Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago

CNN reporting the deal will be signed today

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Now the word is it won’t be signed today.

It sounds like both Trump and Iran are wanting more in the deal.

Nasty Edwin
Nasty Edwin
6 days ago

The drum roll has been continuous for a month or longer

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

*yawn* Israel will snap the leash.

The Window Cleaner
The Window Cleaner
6 days ago

President Julius Caesar/Caligula must be dealt with. Where are the Praetorian Guard/Seal Team Six…when you really need them?

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago

A big problem for Trump (among many) is that he will be forever associated with the big price spike in gas prices Prices that rose to the American public for no apparent reason-other to appease Israel and/or make him (Trump) and his cronies money.

LM2020
LM2020
6 days ago

There is a possibility that there will never be a deal and that Iran and the US won’t ever agree to the same set of terms. Regardless, I believe Trump and the US will withdraw with our reputation permanently sullied, our military a laughing stock – Trump will declare victory with the biggliest deal ever. Fox News and his moronic kool aid drinking quarter wit MAGA supporters will wave the flag (the US flag, not the white flag) and say no one else could have achieved such an amazing victory!

Last edited 6 days ago by LM2020
KPStaufen
KPStaufen
6 days ago

Any deal, if agreed upon by Iran, will be spun by Trump as complete victory. He will take credit for essentially ending up with no better controls on Iran’s nuclear program than the Obama agreement that he cancelled, he will take credit for bringing oil prices down, that his ill-conceived folly spiked in the first place, and he will take credit for regime change that is a total fallacy.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  KPStaufen

There is no deal Iran can make that will satify Israel.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago

There is no deal. Yet Trump continues to negotiate with himself in public view, in order to claim imaginary wins that stroke his ego, but insult Iran. Meanwhile, the US negotiators continue to tell Iran to ignore Trump’s public musings, because they are just for domestic publicity purposes. I doubt that Iran will ignore being continually insulted by Trump when they feel emboldened by their control of Hormuz.

Iran has not yet agreed to anything. And if they do agree to anything, it will likely take a few days, because they do not rush into decisions like Trump wants them to; and if/when they do agree to anything, it will be to agree to negotiate over the next 30-60 days under their terms and conditons. Which means very little at this point.

Meanwhile, Iran’s demands remain the same:

  • Iran controls the strait of Hormuz, and an ability to charge tolls
  • the US will unfreeze billions in Iranian funds
  • the US will pay reparations to Iran
  • the US will withdraw from the Middle East
  • Iran gets to keep their Uranium but will promise not to seek a nuclear weapon for some period of time
  • Iran will allow ships to transit the strait under their control, and the US will end its blockade; and the US will take sanctions off of Iranian oil and allow Iranian oil to be sold to China, India, etc

I don’t expect Iran to achieve all of their goals. But the longer this goes on, the greater leverage Iran has. And no matter what the eventual outcome is, the strait will never return to what it was before Trump attacked Iran. The Persian Gulf countries will create ways to bypass Iranian control of Hormuz through new pipelines and ports. The world’s importers will seek alternative sources to what previously came out through the strait. Iranian control of the strait will slowly reduce the use of the strait over time. But this will take many years.

In the meantime, flows of oil, gas, urea, sulfur, etc will remain permanently reduced for the next year or two.

Trump may succeed in reducing the price of oil again with his claims of an imminent deal. However, as long as the flow of oil remains restricted (and it will) the inevitable future includes higher oil prices.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I agree with your conclusions in the last paragraphs (higher prices due to reduced oil output, new pipelines to avoid using the strait, Iran to retain control of strait which matters only till the pipelines get finished).

In fact no matter what happens or gets agreed to, those conclusions are going to happen because they are already baked into the cake.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

To be clear, the inevitable future includes higher oil prices than what they were before Trump attacked Iran (they were in the $60 range before the war). How much higher will depend on how restricted the flow of oil is.

It would not surprise me to see the price of WTI average around $100 over the next year or two. But that is a guess. There could easily be short term spikes in the next few months as we run down storage and literally run out of readily available oil in some areas of the world.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Spinning these points appropriately:

  • Trump, the greatest deal-maker in history, announces the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz! Something Biden was never able to do! Protection of shipping through the Strait has been forced on Iranian taxpayers too! How they choose to fund it is up to them.
  • Through incredible negotiating powers, powers never before seen, the Iranians have contractually agreed to dismantle all of their nuclear bombs and will not build any more for at least 20 years! This is wildly superior to the African Obama’s weak and low-IQ JCPOA!
  • The Iranian government has given up socialism and is fully open to “investment” from the great American people! This should not be confused with “reparations”.
  • Because we believe in America First, we will cease spending American money on bases in the Middle East. These oil-rich countries can pay for their own defense! In fact, we’re pulling all military forces from the area! This should stop the far-left liberals from creating even more wars in the Middle East!
  • Because of the regime change in Iran, the new leaders both love and fear Trump! Therefore, since Iran is no longer a threat to the world thanks to Trump’s genius, all Iranian funds are being released and sanctions removed!

And MAGA cheers wildly! Elon Musk calls it the “Giga Deal” of the century! Crazed far-left socialist traitors are going to be sued for calling this a loss…

RandomMike
RandomMike
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon

Trump posts here!

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon

Spin is in. Trump is desperate to disengage and needs to spin a win.

Still wondering how Israel will take this. Not well is my guess. After convincing Trump to attack they are now in a worse position than before the war began. So ironic.

Without US support they will have to return to sabotaging Iran in other ways.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

A great depression is likely already baked in for 2030. The debt, AI joblessness, 80m elderly on social programs are enough but throw Trump’s nonsense on top of all that with inflation, oil, shortages, tariffs, anti-immigration, and plain stupidity and there is no way out unless you have a good exit strategy.

I’ve been warning people for years now, time to take action or embrace misery. the choice is everyone’s to make.

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Not sure about 2030. But a global recession is baked in for later this year IF the strait does not open more significantly soon. The global economy cannot function once we run out of oil and refined products storage.

Webej
Webej
6 days ago

The nuclear issue is a manufactured ruse, a hoax.

  • America was trying to destroy the Islamic Republic long before nuclear enrichment ever came up (in 1984 [!] for the first time).
  • There is a fatwa preventing WMDs and nukes, because they are haram.
  • Iran, unlike the crazy genocidal maniacs in Jerusalem, abides by the NPT treaty and has the right to enrich uranium without limits under International law.
  • According to US Intelligence and the IAEA, Iran has never transgressed any supervision by the IAEA. This assessment has been renewed by various agencies throughout decades.
  • Asking Iran not to have something they do not have and are not trying to procure is like asking tme not to buy a Lamborghini: “Okay. It’s all good.”

At this point Israel is irrelevant.
Israel cannot reach Iran without active US hands-on agency.

All the cheerleaders of more bombing are in denial about the consequences and the true state of the military balance of power and possibilities. Anything Trump does down this road will make the situation worse and reveal all the more how limited is American military prowess.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
6 days ago
Reply to  Webej

Yeah its not about iran using nukes. Its about if they have them they become like north korea. Harder to fly over a mow the grass so to speak. At that point iran will have money to spend on proxies.
Best bet was obamas deal. Imo

Phil
Phil
6 days ago

I love the smell of capitulation in the morning, smells like MAGA.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Phil

LOL! Awesome!

Christoball
Christoball
5 days ago
Reply to  Phil

Good one

JohnF
JohnF
6 days ago

“It seems to me the only important country is missing, Iran”

Just Like They Exclude The Palestinians In Any Talks.!

(‘Finishing Off – Iran’) Gen W. Clark 2001 (+ Gaza Genocide)
For ‘Greater Israel’.!

Last edited 6 days ago by JohnF
Stu
Stu
6 days ago

Nobody but the people within the negotiations knows what’s truly at stake in the negotiations. One thing for sure, is Trump is insistent on getting the enriched uranium out. Maybe a timeline for nuclear ambitions on a smaller scale for peaceful reasons is now being considered. Without some agreement along these lines, I don’t think an agreement can be reached otherwise. If they allow this, it will have caveats for inspections, and that may be an issue, but we must have that for verification. I think we are actually nearing some sort of deal…

Phil
Phil
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Trump is not insistent on getting enriched uranium out. Otherwise he would not have launched an attack while Jared Kushner was negotiating to have that done.

Trump is merely a puppet of Netanyahu.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

The JCPOA limited Iranian uranium enrichment to about 3.7%. Enough to power a nuke plant, but not a bomb (which needs 90%). The Iranians had inspectors on site from multiple nations and all agreed Iran was following the letter of the JCPOA. Trump in his first term reneged on the JCPOA. Iran began enrichment up to 60% (enough for a dirty bomb). If Trump had just left Iran alone, they still would have very low enrichment levels.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon

Yes, but Israel would be butthurt, and they have the files.

Creamer
Creamer
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Alternatives “One thing for sure, is Trump is insistent on getting the save act passed.”

But that’s not happening either, like many other things Trump is insistent about such as killing the filibuster, overthrowing elections, killing federal funding to anything progressive (as in, progressing our nation forward), or winning the midterms. You are huffing from a giant tank of copium if you think this is happening while Iran is holding a royal flush.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Creamer

Not copium as I am just stating my understanding of what I am seeing. Leaving emotions out, and no party affiliation, I can do so. Not looking for agreement, but others opinions. I change my mind at times, after I draw an opinion.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Creamer

I do agree with you on the Save Act. It’s like a trophy it seems.

Mike R
Mike R
6 days ago
Reply to  Creamer

This is actually a decent take. Trump desperately needs some cover to claim that it is not a 100% capitulation for the maga base. If he trades some form of strait control for Iran along with some of their other demands, he can try to spin that he held firm on his most important red line. I think he truly believes that an Iranian nuke is a real threat, whether or not it truly is. Add in some kind of moratorium on nuclear enrichment, and he can claim that he improved on the Obama deal, which he needs to do for his precious ego.

From Iran’s perspective, they are asserting they don’t want to build a bomb and have no aspirations for it. If this is true as they claim, then they have no plausible reason for holding onto the 60% enriched stockpile. Throwing in some kind of agreement to return to non-enrichment, which they had previously agreed to with Obama, so they have shown flexibility on that in the past, and going forward if they can have a constrained nuclear program, that’s a pretty good outcome for them esp if they get peace on all fronts, control of the strait, and release of their embargoed money. That’s a fairly strong win for them, the question is whether the hard liners would go for it.

Israel would be screwed in an outcome like this, which as far as I am concerned is just icing on the cake.

Iran’s position is strong, and they aren’t in a mood to capitulate, but otoh getting an agreement to end the blockade with positive concessions, they can focus on rebuilding their economy as well as their military. Hell, they’ll immediately double down on ballistic missiles, drones and other capabilities that they have proven are effective deterrents. Within a year or two, they will have they ability to inflict tremendous pain on the US and Isreal and the Gulf states. All they need is a bit of time. The Gulf states know this, which is why they are making noise on striking a detente with Iran.

Flavia
Flavia
6 days ago

The Gulf States are understanding that Iran can protect them.
New sheriff, indeed.

Buffalobob
Buffalobob
6 days ago

So, according to Trump, Iran meets all his demands; opening Hormuz without tolls, giving up their uranium, and enrichment for 20 years, then all Iran’s demands will be negotiated over the next 60 days.

Iran cannot be stupid enough to buy charlatan Trump’s promises to negotiate after Trump gets everything he wants. They have by far, the stronger bargaining position.

Likely, Trump is simply bloviating.

You name it
You name it
6 days ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

All wars are Anglo-Zionist banker’s wars and they are the ones calling the shots.
“To choose war would mean a global depression, which would include the US economy”

Good commentary cross-posted by Dr. Meryll Nass

Caution Is The Watchwordhttps://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/caution-is-the-watchword

Phil
Phil
6 days ago
Reply to  You name it

Netanyahu accepts the global depression as necessary.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

I think some accommodation for smaller scale nuclear ambitions will be required.

Buffalobob
Buffalobob
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Didn’t the Ayatollah recently issue a fatwa, saying that all uranium must remain in Iran? Persians are known as tenacious negotiators, no way they will be rolled by “Don the Con”.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

They do not want to give it up, or even dust at this point. Using past deals by past leaders as a reason.

J_Schneider
J_Schneider
6 days ago

Trump’s biggest problem is that he has to sell it as the best deal ever made to his MAGA base. Of course the document being now on the table is capitulation. That’s why he is releasing many weird posts.

Another problem are his Jewish sponsors. Against them he has a little bit leverage. Do you want more war? OK but value of your assets will shrink (high interest rates, economic recession) and lame duck presidency is not in your interest.

From puely military point of view there is not enough ammo for next round of war. Only 400 JASSMs and 800 Tomahawks available. That’s enough for 10 days only. Japan was already told that its Tomahawks will be two years postponed.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

I believe Israel has agreed to the Lebanon situation, but with the understanding, that if there is any reason at all to abandon the idea, it will be done quickly and with much force against the resistance. A fair compromise. Very similar to what the US has with Iran at the moment…

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

To be fair, Trump could say that the sky is orange and water is dry and MAGA would pretend that this was gospel until their Führer said something different.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
5 days ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

It won’t be hard. They’re morons.

Bill H.
Bill H.
6 days ago

If they had disclosed the terms, I wouldn’t have bothered to read them. They will have changed by tomorrow.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago
Reply to  Bill H.

Even under the most generous interpretation of this Memorandum of Understanding, it is simply an agreement to agree in 30 days, with a contemplated 30 day extension. During that 60 days, the Israelis will be pushing their proxies in DC hard to ridicule the deal, much like Trump ridiculed the JCPOA.

rjd1955
rjd1955
6 days ago

If Israel wishes to continue the war with Iran, so be it. Leave the US out of it. Trump should have never been talked into starting this war in the first place. He’s only trying to save face from this debacle. No matter the outcome, he will claim it as a win due to his ‘art of making the deal’

njbr
njbr
6 days ago
Reply to  rjd1955

Well, Israel WILL NOT stay out of it, with Iran or any of its neighbors

That is the biggest obstacle

rafterman
rafterman
6 days ago

“Believe what you want.” are the truest words in this article.

CJW
CJW
6 days ago

Iran caved, they didn’t get war reparations or a toll on the straight😂

Do you want hot sauce with that?

in the long run Israel is going to be the biggest loser here. (the US being a close second)

They will be even more hated by even more countries for being part of this and the US is going to be less likely to have their back.

I would expect retribution if I were Nutandyahoo.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago
Reply to  CJW

The reports are the Iranians will remain in control of the Strait. They won’t charge a “toll” to ships that cross the strait, but they will charge an “Environmental Management Fee” in the same amount.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  CJW

I see the Middle East overall, overwhelmingly in favor of ending Iran’s Nuclear ambitions for War purposes. They have been disturbed as much and probably much more, than America at this point. It’s like every day living with a Bazooka aimed at your head. They are ecstatic it’s potentially over! No issues there…

Phil
Phil
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

I see the Middle East realization of how important it is to obtain nuclear weapons to protect from an attack by the old mercurial men running Israel & US.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Phil

Israel doesn’t just strike at will against other Nations…

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Iran has no nuclear weapons. They have never been a threat to anyone. But all peoples need to live in fear of an enemy and seek protection from their government. If there is no enemy, one must be created.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu
Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Absolutely! I am not them, and read what I read. What you just shown, was something I have not read as of yet. Could change my opinion of things for certain, or at least look deeper into it.

Stu
Stu
5 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Are you referring to ALL of these Gulf States that have already been attacked and some over and over again?
Saudi Arabia – bore significant brunt of Iran’s retaliation. In response, Saudi Arabia took the dramatic step of declaring Iranian diplomatic staff, including the military attaché, persona non grata, ordering them to leave the country within 24 hours.
United Arab Emirates – The UAE experienced multiple strikes targeting both military installations and civilian infrastructure. Abu Dhabi and Dubai — major global business and tourism hubs — saw unprecedented security lockdowns.
Qatar – Explosions were reported across the country as Iranian missiles targeted military and civilian sites.
Kuwait – Iranian missiles targeted military infrastructure.
Bahrain – The small island nation’s strategic importance as a naval hub made it a priority target for Iranian forces.
Oman – Even Oman, traditionally neutral in Gulf disputes and a frequent mediator between Iran and Western nations, was not spared.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago

Iran already won this. Trump is just trying to make as much money as he can at everyone else’s expense while trying to find a way to save face.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago

Good summary Mish!
Now the question is how does Israel sabotage this ‘deal’?
-False flag attack?
-Assassinate the Iranian leaders who negotiated the deal?
-Engineer a coup in America and replace Trump with a better supplicant?

You name it
You name it
6 days ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Trust the CIA/Mossad to come up with a plan

EADOman
EADOman
6 days ago

What ever happened to complete unconditional surrender?

Phil
Phil
6 days ago
Reply to  EADOman

😂

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago
I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago

Trump’s claim about the Strait of Hormuz returning to its previous state is not true. According to Fars, contrary to Trump’s recent claim on the social network Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous condition and preparations are underway to sign an agreement, Fars reporter’s follow-ups show that this claim is also far from reality.
According to the latest exchanged text, if a possible agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be under Iran’s management https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/peace-is-at-hand-dont-hold-your-breath

Patrick Brennan
Patrick Brennan
6 days ago

Great commentary, I think you nailed it.

Pedro
Pedro
6 days ago

The clownshow continues…. Trump negotiating with himself (with the sycophants in tow) while the two most important players, Iran and Israel, are saying nothing. As in all negotiating, if someone is negotiating with themselves, best strategy is to wait while they delude themselves more, then carry on.

Trump is hosed. His actions have handed the ME to Iran, China and Russia, while creating a political nightmare for himself and the Republicans.

Iran is going to keep his balls in the vice until he gets hammered politically. The economic pain will continue until the world knows he’s neutered. Even if he finds a deal his propaganda machine can sell to the maga morons, the economic pain will be intense

You name it
You name it
6 days ago
Reply to  Pedro

No solution forthcoming without removal of the root cause.
And that will be a difficult one.

Shelmas
Shelmas
6 days ago
Reply to  Pedro

Iran may be saying nothing because they are following Napoleon’s advice from long ago: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Last edited 6 days ago by Shelmas
Peace
Peace
6 days ago
Reply to  Pedro

My name is…..
My name is…..
My name is…..

TACO

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
6 days ago

There is China’s side of the issue. They are very much part of Iran’s defense by sending Navy ships to Taiwan, forcing Trump to reconsider his priorities of oil vs manufactured goods.

Felix
Felix
6 days ago

Hey, there can’t be a deal. They’ve not even agreed on the shape of the negotiating table!

Tom
Tom
6 days ago

His weakness internationally will embolden the “radical left” in America to look for a backbone. Starting with his BS J6 fund for the white supremacy groups.
He needs their support for the November election. They can intimidate the elections and he can claim he had nothing to do with it other than to “stand back and stand by”.

Tom
Tom
6 days ago

Just in time for next Tuesday. Or is it Wednesday because it’s a holiday in the USA?

Last edited 6 days ago by Tom
Webej
Webej
6 days ago
Reply to  Tom

Taco Tuesday
Nothing-burger Friday

MattyJ
MattyJ
6 days ago

5D checkers at its supreme best.

The carnival barker keeps his livestream happening.

He’s an attention seeking ….. corruption to the core and allowing his cronies to profit from the government.

Now for his next distraction and ratings tilt.

rjd1955
rjd1955
6 days ago
Reply to  MattyJ

Heaven forbid that Trump ramps up his game to 6D checkers. Then we will know he is dead-on serious.

Zoe Wu
Zoe Wu
6 days ago

The dude is an coward and an idiot. He will surrender and humiliate us in front of the world. The world is unipolar and belongs to China thanks to Trump complete capitulation to Iran, China, and Russia. Incredible. We went from we’re the best to I don’t know what I am doing in a blink of an eye.

’Donald Trump, You’re FIRED! ‘

Is the what we should be clamoring for. We don’t have a president, we have a mop sweeping the floor for Xi, Putin, Bin Salam, and the other … what a disgrace.

Peace
Peace
6 days ago

On and Off agreement. But no final one.
There is some obstacle.
One suggestion to Trump.

Get rid of BB.
Seriously.
Throw him under the bus.

He is a leech.
He will stick to you. Suck you blood out.
Will give you viral and bacterial infection.

You can finalise the agreement.

Tom
Tom
6 days ago
Reply to  Peace

BB has too much on Trump.
Trump is scared of Israel and Russia.

Nate
Nate
6 days ago
Reply to  Peace

Can’t “throw BB under the bus” – he has Epstein proof (or some useful blackmail material)

peelo
peelo
6 days ago

” … I will believe there is a deal as soon as Iran says there is a deal.”
With Trump involved, I won’t even believe it then. Mister “Art of the Deal” sees incapable, internationally, of making and keeping one. Did I miss it, or is Senate ratification required? If not, we are back at JCPOA which Trump scrapped at will. But even then, I don’t believe it of him.

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