Comments by Iran’s foreign minister followed several days of tit-for-tat fighting.
Iran Asserts Sole Control of Hormuz
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran Asserts Sole Control of Hormuz, Warns Challenges Will Bring More Violence
Iran has the exclusive right to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary peace deal signed with President Trump, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, adding that attempts to circumvent its authority risk triggering more strikes like those seen in recent days.
“Iran has little interest in watching its leverage wash away with every ship rerouted through Omani waters,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution organization.
The fighting has rattled shipowners and has thrown a budding reopening of the waterway into doubt, threatening the key achievement of Trump’s preliminary deal, which pushes discussions of more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, into a second phase.
Those talks were expected to resume this weekend in Switzerland but have been stalled by the fighting, people familiar with the matter said.
“The management and full restoration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s responsibility,” Araghchi said, according to state media. “No other country or entity has any responsibility or authority in this matter.”
America’s ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, said the U.S. wouldn’t tolerate further attacks on ships.
“If the Iranian regime thinks for a second that President Trump is going to sit by, stand by, while Iran continues to attack international shipping without a response or our bases without a response, they’re sadly mistaken,” he said on Fox News. “And they saw that loud and clear over the last few nights.”
Ignore the bickering about who won’t let whom get away with this or that.
Instead, let’s discuss options, something the Journal did not address.
What Are Trump’s Options?
- Reestablish the blockade shutting down all oil traffic again
- Major escalation that risks more infrastructure damage
- Ground troops, at least as bad as option two
- Let Iran collect fees
Discussion Yesterday
Grok
Predicting who “loses” a war of wills this early is speculative—leverage, costs, and incentives shift fast for all parties. What’s driving your view?
Mish
Regarding the Four Options
I repeatedly stated, before any ceasefire, that there would be a deal and Trump would wave the white flag. That was a minority view but the correct one, and for the reasons I stated.
This is just a further extension.
Although Grok is correct that we do not “know”, it’s hardly premature to look at this in terms of odds.
The odds are Trump will choose option 4. He has no better choice. It’s obvious he fears escalation, especially ground troops. And he wants to brag about a deal, no matter how awful it is.
I suppose Trump could try a blockade again for a while or break his deal on sanction relief, but to what ultimate end but number 4?!
By the way, how much oil revenue has Iran gained in the past few weeks?
Once again Trump put himself into a humiliating position for no reason. The Strait was open, talks were proceeding, and Trump needed to put this behind him.
But here we are. Instead of letting this go quietly, Trump put a spotlight himself . But option 4 will eventually happen anyway, one way or another.
The only related issue at this point is potential splitting money with Oman.
Trump lost the war. He needs to minimize the damage, not make idle threats.
There is no room for maneuver.
The Council of Experts, the Parliament, and the people of Iran are dismayed by any ground being given by Iran’s negotiators. Nobody has a gram of tolerance for any more waffling on the terms by the Israeli/American regime. Just hit them hard immediately is their main thought.
The American regime is obviously very divided, but their step forward/step backwards approach will not bring any reward.
What options does anyone really have once they’ve surrendered and accepted all of the enemy’s conditions?
Maybe resign from office and leave all the mess for the next one?
There’s an old adage that goes quite well here. Give a fool enough rope, and eventually he’ll end up hanging himself with it. And in case, you don’t know which fool I’m talking about, he’s the one living in the White House.
Until the end of the post, I was thinking of the Usonian voter and the Orangutan’s two terms.
The Iranians want to maximize Republican losses in the Senate and House. Expect this to go on until after the election.
The trouble with Trump’s announced “agreement” with Iran to come back to the bargaining table is that there has been no confirmation from Iran. Trump has now announced that Witkoff and Kushner are heading out for the talks in Qatar on Tuesday, because who in the world is smarter and more capable as diplomats than real estate developers?
Now we hear from the Iranians. “Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said there are no planned meetings with US officials in Qatar.”
Real estate developers have to deal with crooked and stupid local officials, without doing anything themselves that would put them in jail. I’d say that would be one of the best training grounds for diplomacy.
How does Iran control ? With drones launched from trailers in a hit , run and hide fashion ? Can they intercept the drones with Navy ships ?
Navy ships are very expensive. We don’t want drones hitting them.
Cheaper, but still expensive, is to fire anti drone missiles at those $20k drones. At a few $million per anti-drone missile, it becomes a very expensive operation to try to escort and protect commercial ships.
They have done what they need to do to control the Strait: convince insurance companies their rates for SOH passage must be so high that nobody will cross the Strait due to uninsured goods’ risk of loss. Stop thinking that every strategic action needs to be via physical weaponry. Soft war can be just as successful as hard war.
Risking 2MM bbl to cross the Strait? Be our guest!
Anyone who thought the MOU was gonna lead to peace was sadly mistaken:
https://nypost.com/2026/06/28/world-news/iran-must-develop-nuclear-bomb-to-protect-peace-and-calm-irgc-media-says-despite-pledge-to-trump/
Iran will have the last word on who wins and loses this, and in the process the world economy will suffer.
Because those that thought the signing of the MOU would lead to oil being shipped out in great numbers from the gulf was also sadly mistaken. And I don’t blame Iran. Iran must do what it believes it has too not just to survive, but also to thrive. That’s the burden of being a sovereign country as they say freedom is the beginning of responsibility.
But the Iranian situation is but one event in a linked chain of events that will unravel in the next 15 years or less, and these events will all occur at the fault line where East vs West meet. Russia/Ukraine/EU, China/Taiwan/Japan, North/South Korea, and basically the Middle East as a whole (eventually).
In the end the unipolarity will succumb to the brute force and will of multipolarity.
The party is just getting started, and the world sleeps unaware, but since the flow of resources aren’t gonna flow as many thought from Hormuz thus we can only assume markets will catch on soon (in the form of panic).
I would wish the Persians to survive and thrive, too, but I wouldn’t wish a Shiite theocracy to do so. I think that is one of the bases of support for this in the United States, because all the white feminists there empathize with the women of Persia.
As I understand it, one of the sad jokes in this is that Sunni Moslems are much more cruel to their women than Shia Moslems are.
And of course, there is the twist that the Persians claim to be Aryan, while the Arabs are Semitic, and Semites apparently run the shop in the U.S.A. So this will finish up being another victory for Semites against Aryans. Sooner or later the Mongolian race will finish up destroying all of us.
We have this sort of situation in Australia. I gather that in our local indigenous communities, the old men still go on about tribal disputes and distinctions from hundreds of years ago, while their whole race is being diluted out of existence.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other, according to a senior U.S. official, as the two sides plan to meet Tuesday in Qatar’s capital to work out their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Tuesday talks were originally set to happen in Switzerland to address Iran’s nuclear program, a source with knowledge of the talks said. The escalation moved them to a different venue and refocused them on the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/28/us-and-iran-agree-to-halt-strikes-and-meet-this-week-us-official-says
Trump waited until the stock market closed on Friday to attack at least 4 Iranian military sites. Now they decided to stop the skirmishes before the stock market opens this Monday.
dont know if he misjudged or was misinformed
either way it appears, the USA was under prepared and still is
Duh People are gonna get screwed huge on this one
Can it actually be by mistake?
quoted: worth noting that Trump may be doing a very difficult balancing act between trying to bring the war to a halt, and keeping his own base happy. I’m guessing that the latter requires a continual stream of militarist and intemperate actions. Americans seem to be happiest when their president is blowing sh**t up.
Say what you will about Trump (and I will too) but the guy has a reputation for being politically savvy. Aside from the deterioration of his brain or whatever, he is also trying to thread a very difficult needle now. The fact that he forged the needle himself doesn’t change things.
I know again I ask when do we go over this talked about oil cliff?
They’ve probably overdramatized it. Prices may go up. The government will intervene to preserve supplies for essential purposes. It will probably be a process, not a point.
If Trump handles things well enough, you may never notice it.
If Trump handles things well enough? Are you serious?
This guy “Arthur” from “Australia” sure sounds a lot like the old Doug78 from France. Where is that old coot these days? I hope he didn’t croak already without saying goodbye.
Too many people here just disappear and never return…..
Doug didn’t sound like a pedophile, like Arthur has demonstrated.
Other than that, pretty similar.
A lot of: “It is my understanding “, “I read somewhere”, “I believe”
Followed by: Stupid statements, nonsense, and outright lies that are promoted on various cult
Conspiracy sites.
And after someone here proves his statements are garbage, he merely moves on to another cult talking point.
If he is an Aussie, he certainly is a dumb fuck Aussie.
More likely an American for the reason you just stated.
Sincerely, an American
Thanks for that. I hadn’t noticed anyone proving my statements were garbage. I move on to new sites when I notice that nobody has downvoted my old comments, so apparently no-one is reading that site any more. I would like to continue some of those discussions, but I am not the only one with a short attention span.
Don’t look now but oil futures are climbing back up 🤑
https://www.barchart.com/futures/european/energies
Crude right now is up only about 50 cents to roughly $70. S&P futures up 0.7%. The on-again-off-again truce is working.
Seems like the two sides had different interpretations of the MOU. The US thought everything back to normal, and Iran thought free movement but you had to follow IRGC instructions. Some owners decided to follow the US interpretation and got bombed for it.
Like, one side, Iran, fulfilled the commitments of the MOU and expected the other side, the US, to do the same, but didn’t, pretending that words don’t mean what they mean. Alas, Perfidious Albion.
Yes, and he lost repubs in the Senate and is losing Congress altogether. He’s a bonafide “has been” at this point but no doubt he can still sh!t the bed at the White House.
128 days till midterms and they are going to fly by…..
937 days till clown’s term ends and those will drag on….
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
Breaking news. Almost time for oil markets to open:
U.S. AND IRAN AGREE TO HALT STRIKES, SET TO HOLD TALKS LATER THIS WEEK – AXIOS, CITING U.S. OFFICIALS
IRAN STATE TV: PASSAGE THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ STILL REQUIRES COORDINATION WITH REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS; SAFEST TRANSIT ROUTE FOR VESSELS ENTERING GULF IS SOUTH OF IRAN’S HORMUZ ISLAND; SAFEST TRANSIT ROUTE FOR VESSELS DEPARTING GULF IS SOUTH OF IRAN’S LARAK ISLAND
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI: ISRAEL’S WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON AND CESSATION OF STRIKES MANDATED BY INTERIM ACCORD WITH U.S.; TEHRAN WELCOMES GULF SECURITY DELIBERATIONS FRAMEWORK WITH ARAB NATIONS INCLUDING IRAQ AND PLEDGES TO EXPAND BILATERAL TIES WITH BAGHDAD’S NEW ADMINISTRATION
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI: TEHRAN SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR REINSTATING STRAIT OF HORMUZ MARITIME TRAFFIC TO PRE-WAR LEVELS; ANY EXTERNAL PARTY’S INVOLVEMENT WOULD COMPLICATE NORMALIZATION OF GULF SHIPPING
.
I think there is a fifth option, which is a continuation of this tit-for-tat back and forth nonsense. Trump cannot allow himself to look weak, it’s simply not in his psyche.
It seems like Iran started this latest round of sissy pseudo fighting – why is not clear. They seem to be upset at the Omani coastal route option, and appear to be claiming that they have exclusive control over the straight. I don’t necessarily agree with this posture – Items 4 and 5 in the MOU talk to the opening of the strait, and item 5 does not definitively assert that Iran actually has exclusive control over the strait.
I think Trump feels compelled to continue this silliness both from an ego perspective as well as from a perspective of the ongoing negotiations on the detailing out the implementation of the MOU. Precedence matters, and I don’t think Trump is willing or able to cede this point – both from an ego perspective as well as from a more pragmatic perspective (I don’t think pragmatism is a dominant Trump trait, but in this case I think it may be a consideration for him).
So I could see this pseudo sissy fighting continue for a while but will likely peter out and then flare up over time as continued disputes happen. Lebanon will also continue to fester as Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon and that will fuel continued conflict. Lebanon will IMO be a worse point of contention than the strait – both due to Israeli intransigence and also because the Strait needs to continue to show some semblance of returning to normalcy and historic traffic flows.
The “why” probably is the US brokered claimed peace between Lebanon and Israel that leaves Hezzbolah out of the picture.
“Trump cannot allow himself to look weak”
That is the LOL of the century, quite literally. Trump got suckered into this mess by Bibi and now he looks like a total fool AND totally weak. Iran is taunting Trump every day now and there is no response except idle threats or lobbing a multi-million dollar missile that doesn’t do much to change the paradigm.
That may be so, but in Trump’s mind he must never never be weak, so in situations like this, he tells the military to blow stuff up, and threatens to literally destroy Iran. That’s how his psyche works.
Trump is the foremost expert in inducing other people to make Trump look weak.
I think you have it exactly right, Mish. Options 1-3 are suicidal, especially the ground troops. Furthermore, Bibi’s war and Ukraine have depleted US weaponry, perhaps to precarious levels. And escalation could lead to things like Iran bombing desalination plants, including in Israel, etc.
Iran is now claiming they have destroyed 8 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
It doesn’t look like Iran is backing down at all in the face of U.S. threats. The strait is effectively closed, as insurers will not approve passage.
Market Manipulation Monday coming, followed by Taco Tuesday?
Taco said he won the war. This must be mistake as we know he never lies.
I want Taco a Corn style, immersed in oil and fried til crisp.
After a War some will not accept a Defeat. Iran appears to have won this battle but in America and Israel some will not accept a defeat. So undermining the Peace Negotiations by whatever means is what the World is now facing. But will the Global Economy survive if these undermining actions persist? Flip a Coin
Virtually no one accepts defeat anymore. When’s the last time you saw a country accept it without being essentially obliterated.
Forced terms just lets issues fester under the surface until they inevitably erupt again at some point in the future (potentially a decade or two on). This is why things are so messed up in the Middle East.
This is why genocide is coming back into fashion. It’s the only way to fix the festering.
Correct. All the great empires of history practiced it (Rome, the Huns, Ottoman, British etc) for the obvious reason that it worked.
Even today just look at places like Syria where the civil war that’s broken out is seeing the various sides try to eliminate the others in order to get complete control.
USA did a great huge genocide. we still have the concentration(reservations) camps.
Iran has been a serious problem for almost 50 years. Some wars are worth fighting and Iran is run by religious nut jobs who have made life miserable for many countries. We should mount a land war in Iran and root out the IRG. Trump’s lost the mid-terms. He’s got nothing more to lose. If he can replace the IRG, he wins, regardless of what Congress says. Congress is now completely ineffective. and a lost cause.
I suggest we send Jeff to fight the war.
In fact, we should make it mandatory for everyone who approves wars to fight them, starting with Jeff first, then Congress
If Jeff and a couple hundred thousand like-minded “volunteers’ actually signed up and participated in an attempted a land invasion of Iran, our nation would be all the better off by having ridden itself of a large amount of ignorant fools and enablers of the criminal elite class that have subverted our democracy and taken control of the USA for their own interests that are completely against the interests of the American people.
most people like Jeff and Arthur are all talk and no action. There are easily a couple hundred thousand like minded individuals but my guess is maybe 10% actually sign up for service. At best.
… and 10% of those will meet the physical requirements.
Fortunately, there are no mental requirements
America would need several million soldiers for a land invasion of Iran. We’d have to triple the size of the U.S. Army and spend at least two years to train and equip them and send them to the theater. We couldn’t even keep them fed and supplied with fuel. Iran would destroy all the desalination plants in the region, so American troops would quickly run out of water.
I suppose you’ll want to send me, too. I’m 75 years old. I’m so sorry to be worrying you tough young warriors with my opinions.
Judging by the map you published yourself, Persia will have to be bombing well inside Omani territorial waters if they want to close off that shipping lane. The Omanis and the Pakistanis are the only people in that part of the world who will still talk to the Persians, as I understand it. Do the Persians want to lose the Omanis?
Off-topic, for all those people who have been calling me a “pedophile,” there is a new piece on Zerohedge which may interest you. It is entitled “Are The Epstein Survivors Being Exploited Yet Again?,” and on my computer it shows the datestamp 4.00AM, Monday 29th June 2026, which looks as if it must be Australian time. I don’t have the time to check everything about it, but it looks as if it is a first-person report by some sort of researcher. I get the impression that he is saying that some well-financed group are still using this episode for political purposes.
Yeah, we’d gladly volunteer you, Mr. “Little Hookers”.
Honest question – did you ever serve or ever fight in a war? At your age, you could have served in Vietnam with the Aussies. You would have been 18 in 1969 if my math is correct… did you have the guts to put your life on the line then? Or have you always been all talk but no action?
I was lucky enough to be balloted out of the last year of conscription for Viet Nam. I’m no hero. I particularly do not want to put myself in the position of being shot or maimed because of the decisions of fools.
I figured as much. But apparently you’re fine advocating for others to go fight and die. Great standard, you’re a coward and a chicken hawk.
I take it that you’re a hero yourself. But I don’t want to throw away soldiers’ lives in silly engagements. I don’t think Trump wants to do that either. Netanyahu I wouldn’t be so sure of, but he certainly is a very competent politician.
I would be more critical of what I take it are the American business interests behind the war in the Ukraine. I get the impression that they want to break Russia’s holdings open to American development, and don’t care how many Ukrainians, let alone Russians, they kill in the process. Or is it just a sneaky Jewish plot to kill Gentiles?
I’m no hero, but I served during the Gulf War.
Your high opinion of Trump and Netanyahu is insane. Trump is a true chicken hawk coward who was too afraid to serve himself but not afraid to send the military in harms way when it suits him, and damn the consequences and the deaths to the troops. He’s been quoted as saying that military dead are suckers, so I have zero respect for him.
Netanyahu did serve and fought in combat, but he’s the twisted type of war hero who is ok with being callous with the inevitable loss of life in war. He’s a true psychotic.
Trump does say some pretty callous and brutal things, but so probably does a sergeant training recruits. A friend of mine once, in reply to my enquiry about a minor public figure he knew, said, “Well, he’s not a very nice man. But leaders often aren’t.” I think that sums it up.
“Probably” you say to a veteran who would know.
How can you possibly equate a random drill sergeant’s verbal beratements which are made as a basic training tool, to Trump having voiced total derision and scorn for veterans who made the ultimate sacrifice? You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about, so just stop and cut your losses. You have no idea about military culture and just need to stop showing your utter ignorance.
I did see all this coming, by the way, when I answered your question about whether I had done any military service.
Get out there and fight… what have you got left, 5 years?
Glory can be yours!
That’s a point, but if I had what it took, I think I would try to kill a member of the judiciary. To my mind, they are the heart of corruption.
Why not you AND every other pedophile we have on the books mister “little hookers”? Sounds to me like you’d love to still be exploiting those survivors.
I’ve always thought that the children, say from 16 years or older, of any member of congress should be the first ones in line for any war that is started by the USA. In the front line that is. Make that a rule and there will only be wars of true neccessity.
You go git ‘em, Jeff!
Why Jeff or Congress First. Let’s go FULL old-fashioned and mount Taco on horseback with a sword and club.
Have you signed up to go fight Jeff? You regurgitate propaganda nonsense but exactly what direct threat is Iran to the US? Since the answer is none, why exactly is it the responsibility of the US to go fight in Iran to rid them from the evil IRGC? In the last 30 years how many people has Iran killed in the Middle East? Now let’s compare that number to the combined efforts of the US and Israel. Who are the terrorists exactly?
You’ll never get an answer to that question. It provokes a cognitive dissidence that forces a full system shutdown.
“[Trump’s] got nothing more to lose”
How about the excess weight on his obese body?
How about the hundreds of millions of dollars obtained through corruption and deceit?
How about his freedom? He could be in prison for any of a number of Epstein, war crimes, and corruption-related charges.
Trump has everything to lose except his reputation.
Your comment about Trump’s weight reminds me of something a friend said just after the elections in 2016, when a lot of women turned out to march in protest: “Trump’s already doing some good. He’s got a lot of fat bitches out walking.”
Those must be the stereotypical nose-ringed, blue-haired lesbians so beloved of MAGA (alongside the Cadillac-driving welfare queens).
Are you saying the porcine blue hairs don’t exist? Cripes they’re all over the place.
Well we know both you and him prefer them weighing under a hundred pounds. Big enough to pick up and carry off?
Trump as unreal lucky riverboat gambler was highlighted when, as of 2024, his only way out of a future lifetime of legal hell was to take over the high ground of US law enforcement, prosecution and legal immunity. I’ve never seen such a volatile high wire act pulled off. There is something uncanny about this weirdo. Others are unusually fearless, but in no instance I can recall, has the law of averages been so evaded, so frustrated, so long. He truly has a ridiculous string of luck. And tens of millions of suckers sure help!
What we know about Iran comes from the same people who told us Saddam had WMD, who told us for 20 years Afghanistan was in hand, who presented us the Russiagate hoax, who lied about every important fact about Covid and the jab, who told us the 2020 election was squeaky clean (with the man in his basement getting 60% of his votes from mail-in ballots), who told us George Floyd was a saint who was murdered by a cop (the criminal clearly died of Fentanyl overdose), & who tell us castrating little boys is “gender-affirming care.”
Wow, that is the weirdest cavalcade of Trumped-up stereotype memes I’ve seen. You must have been studying at Trump University, mining the lower rungs of social media. Your categories are all skewed up. The Saddam WMD and Afghanistan claims (challenged by Obama in the Senate, and only late in the game by Trump tweets) were predominantly GOP, many of the same folks who, after tooting their horns for war for years, quietly slunk away in 2008’s econ crash, to reemerge as Tea Party and then MAGA.
What an amazing mix of accurate assessments of proven government lies (WMDs) to overreactions (covid – the vaccine was the best thing that happened even if its effectiveness in stoppin a spread was overrated) to conspiracy theories that have run into the wall at every court (2020 election conspiracy nonsense). The site does not let me upvote and downvote at the same time. What to do?
The “vaccine” was not a vaccine (until you after the fact change the definitions) and killed and maimed thousands. And is still doing it.
Note: highest all-cause mortality of all was in 2021, the year of the vaccine and the milder Omicron, not 2020 when the more lethal initial variant prevailed. Unexplained sudden deaths are now normal, whereas pre-Covid, they were rare and people demanded answers. Myocarditis in young people is an undeniable side effect. Why are young people now (after 2021) getting a lot of cancers that used to only affect old people? There is a ton of evidence, even if Mockingbird media censors it.
Trump said all of those things?
Make sure to join the Army, so that you can help destroy those ‘religious nut jobs’. Or are you just an armchair warrior?
How did that work out in Afghanistan Jeff? Tell us about the great success there or Libya, Iraq, Vietnam or just about any other country invaded since World War II.
Maybe the problem in the Middle East are the religious nuts who think they are entitled to land there awaiting for their magical deity to return. That begs a good question, if the big guy upstairs says that land belongs to them, then why hasn’t he smite all the surrounding “enemies” to make that happen?
Err…. the US has been a problem for Iran since 1953. It has sponsored a coup, funded its enemies, sanctioned its economy and bombed its country. There is nothing Iran has done to the US comparable to what the US has done to Iran. If your “religious nut jobs” are less destructive than our own “stable geniuses”, I’ll take the RNJ’s. Are you daft?
+100. The American regime was fine with the Iranian regime when our puppet – the Shah – used SAVAK to terrorize the people. Once our guy was ousted, America suddenly claimed to be concerned with human rights there. We have no principles. Like how we pitched the phony Bashar Assad gas attack so we could replace him with an ISIS / Al Qaeda head chopper.
We spent 20 years, over 4,000 American lives, untold number of Afghan lives and trillions of dollars to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. Now you want to invade a country 3 times bigger with four times the population (and an educated one) that’s far more mountainous than Afghanistan, that has dozens of missile production facilities buried hundreds of feet under mountains of granite. Are you insane? The only war we’ve won in the last 80 years has been Grenada. Even if we could defeat Iran – which we couldn’t – then we’d have to occupy it?