What market manipulation is next? Diesel crack spreads? 
Hoot of the Day
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Treasury doesn’t intend to ‘mitigate episodes of acute market stress’ as it foolishly attempts to do just that.
The Wall Street Journal reports Bond Yields Dive After Bessent Steps Up Buybacks
Over the course of the Iran war, the Trump administration has learned it can trigger big declines in the price of oil with well-timed messages predicting imminent peace deals. Now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying the same trick with the bond market.
Apparently alarmed by the upward march in long-term yields, the U.S. Treasury said this morning it would at least double repurchases of longer-dated Treasury bonds. Rates dived in reaction, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds falling 0.09 percentage point to 5.20%.
But the size of the planned repurchases is miniscule, doubling from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. In July alone, the Federal budget deficit was $432 billion. The existence of this deficit means the Treasury’s firepower to buy back debt is inherently limited. In effect, it can only buy back long-term bonds by issuing more short-term ones.
To have a sustained impact on long-term yields, there would have to be meaningful deficit reduction, which is unlikely, to say the least, in the current political environment. Alternatively, the unlimited firepower of the Federal Reserve could be brought to bear on the Treasury market in an explicit policy of “yield curve control.”
Similar to what the Bank of Japan did for years, this would involve the Fed stepping in to buy bonds when yields go above a certain threshold. But this would fly in the face of Kevin Warsh’s rhetoric on multiple fronts, including wanting a smaller Fed balance sheet and allowing the market to send clearer signals absent influence from the central bank.
Who Knew?
Someone did because bond yields started drifting lower in advance of the move while the price of oil was rising.
Debt Buyback
Gold and Metals Reaction
Energy Futures
Why the Manipulation Will Fail
- Energy isn’t reacting to the news. It’s the catalyst for the news.
- Rising oil prices puts upward pressure on inflation.
- Rising bond yields are the result.
- Oil price pressures remain.
- Deficit spending and debt pressures remain.
Bessent is targeting a symptom of the problem, many problems actually: Inane war policy, inane tariff policy, deficit spending problems.
Bessent Is a Hypocrite and a Liar
The Treasury doesn’t intend to ‘mitigate episodes of acute market stress’. Yeah right.
Curiously, Bessent is telling Japan that it needs to raise rates to halt rising interest rates in Japan.
Faced with the same scenario, Bessent opts for market manipulation. However, manipulation will not cure budget problems, tariff madness, or a monster diesel crack spread issue.
Hello Kevin Warsh
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to end this madness.
It will be interesting to watch him defend this when the Fed meets in September.
When Will the Price of Diesel and Gasoline Hit New Record Highs?
This morning at 4:00 AM I asked When Will the Price of Diesel and Gasoline Hit New Record Highs?
Diesel will be first, likely soon.
Diesel was $0.3482 from a new high at the time of my post. Today, the AAA reports the price of diesel has risen from $5.4677 to $5.5042.
The record high is $5.8159. Diesel is now $0.3117 from a record high.
Because oil is up again today, diesel is highly likely to be up again tomorrow.
US Diesel Crack Surpasses $100 a Barrel for the First Time
To understand why diesel is rising much faster than the price of gasoline, please see US Diesel Crack Surpasses $100 a Barrel for the First Time, Farmers Suffer
Record high crack spreads. Serious economic ramifications.
The short answer is there is a shortage of global refining capacity. Bond manipulation sure will not fix that.
30 year bond back where it was when Bessent started his shenanigans.
Whatever Bessett is doing won’t really work. How many billion in a 40 trillion dollar debt burden and probably another 40 trillion in forward obligations?? Basically there are no good options. Default on debt and global meltdown. Getting spending under control when they USG accounts for 30% of all GDP(more crashing) or kick the can down the road(we are at the end of the road)
This morning the 30 year bond has recovered about 2/3 of the interest rate drop caused by the manipulation. Seems the efficacy of the intervention is lasting quick.
I wish these self-aggrandizing technocrats would get out of the meddling business and let the markets clear this mess.
Bessent’s little stunt only added $14 billion of Treasury buyback obligations, on paper, but it also caused the US dollar to drop by almost 1% vs the Euro currency. That translates to over $300 billion in FX repricing. Yep, we have a real brain trust running the federal government right now.
Now, if I were in charge, how would I start to get out of this mess?
(1) Admit that attacking Iran was a mistake. Apologize to Iran, and the world, for what was done.
(2) Create a treaty with Iran to revert the Hormuz Strait to prewar condition, in exchange for:
(a) lifting all wordwide economic sanctions on Iran, and granting them true free trade, worldwide
(b) unfreezing all Iran related assets, worldwide.
(c) paying Iran one time reconstruction compensation to the tune of $100-$200 billion (basically, the same cost as one or two Fed quarter point rate hikes lasting for a one year period — incredibly cheap vs the alternative)
(d) recalling all military vessels from the middle east.
Once the dust cleared from that, the worldwide (financial) economy would jump like gang busters, so you would have to re-evaluate next steps from that point.
PS If you are listening, Susie Wiles, think this through for a few minutes, juggling and mixing in some recent events. It may make more sense than it appears on the face of it.
Except Israel would be wroth. Very very wroth.
But for Israel, Trump would have no reason to attack Iran.
Not going to happen unless he is impeached and the new President is not beholden to 3rd party interests that are financing the wars
The goal is to keep the wheels on the bus and defer refinancing risk until after the midterms.
This move does not increase the debt, but it does increase interest expense on the debt, which means they will have to borrow even more money. Yippee. Thank goodness it has a silver lining.
The bond market currently and over the last 9 months doesn’t really see that much inflation long term. They have been pricing in about 2.25% inflation over the next 30 years. What has exploded is the forecasted real rate of return after inflation. Even after today’s announcement by the Treasury, investors are looking at a real rate of return after inflation for US Treasuries of about 3%. That is outta wack with historic norms. Bernanke was buying Treasuries and MBS hand over fist when the real rate of return was less than that.
The Fed is politically compromised and by not buying longer date Treasuries is actively harming the nation. All the Bond traders know this. If the Fed refuses to act to bring the real rate of return back into historic norms, the Treasury must do so.
You may be correct, it seems the Fed entering the market is the only way out of this. Beginning of MMt, the Japanese style, print and buy all 10 years maturities… or variations of. It looks like nobody likes that but if it is what it takes to live the American dream…
Dominos trying to prop each other up?
” … The yen’s slide has Bessent’s attention for a self-interested reason: Turmoil in [Japanese Government Bonds] could spill into the $31 trillion US Treasury market. Japan is the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, with nearly $1.2 trillion – and a JGB crisis could force it to start selling dollars.
… As US tariffs and military campaigns stoke global inflation, Washington is being reminded that Asian central banks effectively hold the mortgage on its ability to keep spending beyond its means. …”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/08/why-japan-is-leading-the-global-bond-selloff/
New York Times just now: U.S. Debt Hits 40 Trillion.
Well, Happy 40 everybody! This year is full of anniversaries and such.
When Carter was President he hit one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios since WW2. My mother knew his mother. Cool mothers. Then came Raygun, the most fiscally irresponsible President until Trump. At the rate it’s going,Trump could hit 47 trillion with ease by his last day in office.
I think the debt is safely out of control now.
Well I guess we’ve hit middle age then. The average lifespan is about 78. Can we survive until $78T??? I predict an early massive heart attack.
Life start at 40.
It means old empire will collapse and new paradigm will come.
The last genuine Republican, and he even had a brain, and a boatload of integrity: “Read my lips: no new taxes.” Then he realized he was wrong. The top rate of the 1986 tax signed by President Reagan was dangerously low: 28%. The deficits it was causing were dangerously high, and Bush did the right thing by raising federal income taxes. Now there are no Republicans like him. None are capable of doing the right thing for their country.
He was right about “no new taxes”. He just increased the old ones.
And I note what followed: much more sound government finances in that decade.
Then there was the dot.com crash, a fucking stupid war, and a massive crash based on an opaque house of cards call MBS and CDS. Well we’re in a stupid fucking war, Ai and data centers threaten over overproduction of infrastructure, and the national debt is a house cards. The only difference is it’s staring us right in the face…
Bush agreed to a 5 cent gasoline tax increase to keep the government open, which had already shut down the parks. They held him hostage and then beat him up for it.
He also increased the top marginal tax bracket from 28 percent to 31%. Brought in a lot more money.
Give every man woman and child in the state of California $1,000,000 and that would equal the deficit? some would call that gross mismanagement, others would call it a crime, but no, it is just your government working for you.
U.S. Treasury Department said it will more than double the amount of U.S. government bonds that it will buy back, and the move worked in getting longer-term yields lower, for now at least.
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/alarmed-bond-market-gets-trump-administration-act-135783005
“But the operation changes almost nothing in terms of the fundamentals in particular the unchanged need to finance the tidal wave of hyperscaler debt in addition to very large government deficits,” said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, in a client note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html
The whole buying was a publicity stunt.gov.selling of bonds in the 100 billion range and buys buy back 2 is and illusion of control,yields will rise again soon….
Sure we can do this. Except it hurts banks, but arguably more importantly the basis trade. So how long can we do this? If the basis trade blows up again that’ll be fun as it provides a massive chunk of liquidity to the bond market.
What are we gonna do when:
Fun stuff. So sure why not, let’s buy back 10Y-30Y. WHY NOT.
So, maybe debt isn’t a good thing?
The best thing that could happen is the next congress revert the tax code to pre-Bush Jr. None of these give aways have helped long run GDP growth – they’ve just lined the pockets of the already wealthy.
That must be accompanied by reverting spending to pre-Bush Jr. numbers too.
The country has a spending problem.
Bring back Glass-Steagall.
Bring back torches & pitchforks
Well, Congress has definitely created a monster, so it seems apropos.
This adds new clarity to the phrase, “Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”. Meant to illustrate pure stupidity and lack of problem solving skills, we are watching it in real time.
The goal is to defer any catastrophe until after the midterms.
It doesn’t matter if the catastrophe will be made worse, as long as it happens after the midterms.
Don’t believe and trust whatever Trump says.
Don’t believe and trust USD especially under Trump.
This is the end stage of US empire.
Military
Political
Diplomacy
Financial
Trading
Debt and Deficit
All are visibly much weaker than just a few years ago.
Slowly, slowly and suddenly.
Every field, every metric US is not winning.
AGI – Artificial General Intelligence is the only last hope left for US.
Even AGI will not guarantee US will win.
If fail everything will fall apart.
The US treasury vs the reality of the market. Sorry Scott but you don’t have the balls for this.
“Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.”
― Herbert Hoover
Oh I see great leader is kicking sand in Warsh’s face for daring think that the markets can handle rates themselves.
What he should do is man up and admit that our fascist executive branch is cluelessly trying to rig the economy in a manner so utterly shameless, even the Soviets would have their heads spinning. The inability of men like Warsh to call out textbook 20th century fascist economic tactics is the exact reason said tactics are no longer relegated to the dustbin of history. These ideas from Trump and pals are ass backwards, yet the Fed is content to blow smoke up asses about how they’re “reacting” and “looking into it” (ie: trying to do as little as possible).
Where is the buck supposed to stop when every single person in our system is completely spineless? This is a public health emergency folks! We need to figure out where all the backbones are vanishing to.
Many decades ago, when I was a bank teller, we called this “kiting”
Its become sport for me to come here and prove that the biggest problem humans have is not realizing that changing one’s mind is simultaneously the easiest and most difficult thing to do. Easy if you actually look at the effects of a new applied idea/paradigm concept, and impossible if you’re stuck in your head with an old orthodoxy that the new paradigm invalidates.
Will is the answer to your malady, and the aspects of the natural philosophical concept of grace are the beneficial effects behind every historical paradigm change. Thats the new science of paradigmology. Just call me Copernicus and maybe also Plato or Socrates.
Forthwith, I shall call you ‘Descartes’
Just don’t put him in front of the horse
Yes, that might result in forward movement as in permanent progress/paradigm change. Those who are right only in their own minds are indeed the perfect example of the cart before the horse.
Don’t know if that was meant to be a compliment or an insult. Descartes’ dualism is a reality, but the whole truth is trinity/thirdness greater oneness of a duality as in Hegel’s thesis, antithesis and synthesis which is the intellectual process of wisdom and the signature of historical paradigm changes.
I just checked Debt to the Penny web site, it shows Debt at $40,047,425,768,420.22.
We have reached another undesirable milestone.
Key Square Capital Management is a hedge fund founded by Scott Bessent in 2015. It initially raised $4.5 billion. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and then plummeted to $577 million by 2023, a decline of almost ninety percent. Now Bessent is plying his skills at Treasury.
And IRAN is multiplying the Presuure . . .
Home sales slumped and mortgage rates looked poised to go back up into the 7’s. Not what they wanted as the mid-terms approached. Voila’ bond manipulation.
Smart people prefer games rigged in their favor. An even break is for suckers.
I find it interesting that bond traders could be so easily juked (long bond rates falling) in the face of the exploding deficit–in the SINGLE MONTH of July alone, the Swamp vampire borrowed $432 billion.
They’re traders, not investors. They think they only need to stay ahead of other bondholders. They think they’ll ride this slight drop in yield and then jump out just in time.
Everybody trading in the bourse is a trader by definition.
They are all MONKEYS placing their bets in the biggest casino in the world.
It’s not a casino when the outcome can be maipulated.
When it gets serious, you have to lie.
Thumbs up. A great quotation by our overseas buddy, Jean-Claude Juncker
The government has reached the end of the line with economic and accounting gimmicks; the free market is beginning to apply the consequences of government profligacy. Excssive government spending has been made possible and exacerbated by Nixon removing the dollar convertibility to gold and the fed basically “fixing” every problem, real or perceived, since Chairman Volker with lower rates and or QE and recently with both in tandem. This allowed congress to borrow and spend with little if any serious accountability until now.
Count on congress to try to spend our way out of a spending problem, borrow our way out of a debt problem and continue to buy votes with wealth we do not have. Basically, they will continue to do the same thing and expect different results. What a mess.
Daddy is burning the family furniture for heat, and taking the credit card to the casino.
I was just a little kid when the national debt hit a trillion early in Reagan’s first term, I wrote a trillion and could not fathom all those zeros. Then he decided that if we slash corporate taxes and capital gains taxes and income taxes on the highest levels that it would generate so much extra government income due to increased economic activity that the debt would be eliminated
My economics professors years later including Carl Christ and Lou Maccini and Steven Hanke “laughed” at that Laffer Curve political bullshit but here we are 45 years later
1986 tax act destroyed more jews than hitler. what we said, jockingly in NYC in finance…….. watching all the r/e investors go belly up. ps many jew pals of mine repeated this old joke many times………….flyover crowd just lapped up that old con man ronnie raygun.
one of our clients, a trump like con man who syndicated r/e in nyc, fleeced poor old ivan lendl of tennis fame. he was a decent guy. very shy. but boy he got the old fashioned treatment of a jock, rewarded, with too much chowder. like a babe in the woods.
Accelerated depreciation (7 years) for real estate was a joke and allowing it to be a shield against ordinary income made for all sorts of goofy tax shelters being sold to doctors, lawyers and anybody with high taxable income. “The building doesn’t cash flow, but it’s a helluva shelter.” It led to malinvestment. The 1986 Act got rid of that BS. Yes, commercial and multifamily real estate values plummeted… to reasonable levels.
agree.
if you analyze tax codes around the globe for many centuries, the men who provide armies, food, housing and jobs usually get preferential treatment from the senators, queens, in all sorts of different types of governments. for the simple reason, you would lose your country if those things start to implode.
A city-state with really participatory governance would have elites pitching in, by their own vote, and also closely monitoring where their credit went, for defense and such. Sometimes governments would have to push further and exact big involuntary contributions from the rich, but usually as credit so they could participate in the upside.
This government now has no balls to even ask for something like that. So we are writing rubber checks and dreaming that the peasants will eventually make good on it.
Drilling dry oil wells, artificial insemination cattle ranches, ah the good old days.
I don’t recall any time when we had 7 year depreciation on real estate. Business furniture and fixtures yes, but not buildings.
I think you’re right. 15 years for real estate. That was before the passive loss limitations.
We are where we are because of grotesque, venal spending by Leviathan. Not because the govt sucks too little out of its subjects via explicit taxation and money-printing-induced inflation.
The Laffer Curve is basically intuitive. If taxes took 100% of income, you wouldn’t bother to work. If taxes took 0% of income, the government would not get income tax revenues.
The problem is that the Laffer Curve is used dishonestly.
the us gov ran quite fine on just land sales of gov property and some tariffs. no income tax needed. if the us gov and state gov continued selling off public lands………we’d be able to finance the war machine for a long time. i’m sure we will get there again. back to the future
Why not just privatize everything and feed the war machine huge steaming kielbasas all day and night? Then the oligarchy can really get in a malicious stride. Predatory competitive dynamics can just sweep everything before it. We’ll have a few immortals in orbiting islands of bliss, and Soylent Green down below. By all means, burn the furniture for some fancied future.
Maybe that’s why Taco wants to expand the empire???
And that its shape changes over time along with the point taxes are on it.
Frankly, I’ve argued since May ‘by good Governmant manipulation” Trump could likely help fuel prices.
The problem isn’t that we can’t make enough diesel et al for us, it’s that we can’t export enough to make up for shuddered Russian and Middle Eastern refineries. See: Record product exports. But Trump doesn’t want to limit his fellow Billionaire buddys’ profits so he won’t restrict exports. THAT would be constructive Gov intervention.
Market Trends and Inventory Impact
Tracking the Export Data
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDIEXUS2&f=W
BTW, Bessent’s feeble manipulation will fail as Trump is the perinial ‘Boy who cried wolf’ in the middle of losing what remains of his audience.
That reminds me of a story, probably in something written by Gore Vidal, of a Roman emperor who courted popularity in Rome by diverting the grain supply intended for garrisons on various islands to the city of Rome itself. The soldiers who were defending Rome starved, but the populace of the city were pleased. That is what you would be doing if you refused to export diesel at a fair market price.
Taco and his clowns haven’t a clue with their goal of trying manipulate the financial markets in front of the approaching mid-terms. Desperation will continue to grow exponentially with no limits or extent these idiots will go. Not sure the public understands this.
Timing is everything…
what happens after the fact is not as crucial as knowing…
when and what you will fuck with next.
The insiders knew this was coming. That’s why Gold & Silver have been rallying so hard lately. With the insider trading scheme, the markets make big moves ahead of the news. Wouldn’t be surprised if metals temporarily sold off over the next few weeks to trap late retail buyers.
Trump is a total idiot that is for sure, but the libertarian obsession with austerity and pain is only one step above his stupidity.
The truth: Deficits don’t matter because they are revenue and thus a part of GDP. Only problem is they are revenue for only the banks and the wealthy who can afford to buy the treasuries. Democratize the revenue to buy them.
Inflation? Not with a policy of a 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale which enables $4.50/gallon gas to be purchased for $2.25 and a $500k house for $250k and yet the home builder gets their full price with the rebate aspect of the policy.
Increased Taxes? Nope. Just mandate that the FED pay for 90% of the government deficit thus reducing total taxes by 90%
When you intellectually break through and start analyzing conceptually/paradigmatically you begin to realize that concept/paradigm changes resolve formerly thought of unresolvable opposites and invalidate old orthodoxies
Wisdom is the intellectual process of integrating and resolving opposites, and the beneficial aspects of every historical paradigm change have always been an aspect or aspects of the natural philosophical concept of grace, in this case grace as in the free gift of price/purchasing power.
Wisdomics-Gracenomics the new monetary and economic paradigm policy program.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C49B9PX7
Your whole argument rests on the GDP being the ultimate variable that describes an economy. I’d argue that is bunk.
Since taxes are not subtracted from the GDP, it is a stinky pile of manure.
Not correct. Its based on purchasing power at the very point of purchase itself. Model the freshman algebra of -50% discount at retail sale to the individual agent + rebate of the total of 50% discounts back to the merchant until you see that this single policy is the greatest progression of profit making economic systems since sea shells were money.
Got a better one?
Deficits matter because the contribute to the monstrous debt and increase future current and future servicing cost much more than the resulting gain in GDP. Your argument is the country can borrow its way to prosperity.
Inflation? Not with a policy of a 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale” will not work because forcing retail to operate at a loss shuts down the retailer and he makes no sales at any price.
I do not believe the repairs you suggest have been thought through and there is no way I am going to buy the book. I might if the price were cut in half, but then it would not be available on Amazon as Bezos is smart enough not to run his business at a loss.
You forgot to do the rebate aspect of the policy which makes the merchant whole on his entire price. Look before you judge please.
As for Bezos and every other merchant they’d love it because it doubles the potential demand for every one of their goods and services…which is the dictionary definition of good economic times, namely lots of disposable income and no inflation.
And where does the rebate come from? Obviously, the government treasury providing a reinforcing spiral down the toilet bowl drain.
GDP “growth” is already mostly the issuance of new debt.
True. And thats why the answer to that problem is Strategic Monetary Gifting.
Strategic Monetary Gifting is the problem, not the solution
I think you would be wiser to stick to cleaning windows.
I indeed at one time owned and operated a boutique residential window cleaning service. The irony is that my moniker is also a reference to Huxley’s book The Doors of Perception which is a treatise on Blake’s quote: “If the doors of perception were cleansed every thing would appear to man as it is, Infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thro’ narrow chinks of his cavern.”
Glad you cleared that up. Your ideas makes you sound like a window licker. Seriously. Maybe you can get away with this with Ai robots doing all of our work for us some day. But are you suggesting that 50% markup can be simply erased? Markup represents the middleman’s cost. Having a storefront, website, or a physical business location does not come for free. By your logic everyone could take a 60% haircut, or 70%, 80%. Then everyone is closer to working for free. I gotta call BS. Check your real math. Map it out on a chalk board. See where it all goes. My guess is you’re not summing all the forces at work.
There is no 50% mark up. Its a 50% discount to ultimate price because retail sale is the point where production exits the economy and becomes consumption, yet with the central bank rebating every cent of the merchant’s discounts back to them they are made whole on their entire price…so no moral hazard there. And what libertarians dream about, namely deflation becomes the reality. Plus it doubles everyone’s purchasing power which is what enterprise would love to see happen. It out profitability’s capitalism and out economic democracy’s socialism…because its a thirdness greater oneness of the obsessive alligance to orthodoxy on both sides of that duality.
#veryverylowIQ
Fuck your MMT or whatever it is wisdomomics
Mish, Mish…I expected a little more scholarly response than that, or at least a non-response. Did you actually model the policy with the central bank rebating the merchant’s discounts back to them so they’re made whole on their full price? Also, did you understand that all of that rebate is debt free money so no “national” debt increases, and it implements price deflation? Thats libertarianism without all the pain, less all of the unworkability of “free” market orthodoxy, less all of the domination by Finance’s monopoly paradigm of Debt Only.
I think you guys who are so resistant to being able to buy $100 worth of groceries for $50 or buy a $500k house for $250k will resist until your wives catch up to you and hit you over the head with a rolling pin at which point you grow a couple more brain cells and say: “Hey, this really IS a great deal! I’m on that bandwagon!”
Stop being such a lightweight. 50% discount? No way. I want it all for free. Make the government rebate the retailer 100%.
So the house builder gets all his materials for free. He pays his workers nothing. Sells the house for nothing. And the buyer pays nothing.
Perfect. We all live in mansions, drive Ferraris, get our food and necessities for free. It’s the Window Cleaner’s Golden Age.
Now. When are you going to imeplement this miracle system? It sounds so much better than Trump’s Golden Age.
Don’t put your words and non-economic thinking in my mouth. The 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale is exquisitely economically valid and relevant to the system’s deepest problem…the monopoly monetary paradigm wielded by Finance.
This sure has been fun. It will probably end up as a chapter entitled Owning The Overly Orthodox in my book The New Study of Paradigmology.
And remember, there’s never been anything wrong with the idea or the practice of Gifting because after all, it elicits grace as in gratitude.
Orthodoxies trap you squarely in Plato’s cave while the flow of nowness and continual newness of grace leads you to the surface where a deeper reality can be experienced.
This is similar to the Yen intervention in spirit. It smacks of desperation as trump seems to be set on getting his mid-term election stock rally no matter what the cost.
The dollar will weaken further as this is bannana republic stuff.
I’ve been reading articles for weeks that we would be moving to more bills over longer dated bonds so I’m not sure why anyone is surprised. Perhaps it is the scale.
So, there’s no coordination (or effort) to counter high oil prices for now. At least that’s good to know from our side.
There is a global refining capacity shortage due to wars in Ukraine/Russia and in the Middle East. Capacity was already stretched thin and then the Iran war is started for no discernible reason.
Trump was ordered to start it and then dragged in by Israel. So said Rubio. Israel fatigue is probably why Alex Vindman lost the primary in Florida. The media paints it as the rise of the socialists. They obscure the fact that the DSA candidates have been the only ones not beholden to Israel.
The Fed won’t be able to contain interest rates in this phase of the 60 year rate cycle. There’s still ~15 years remaining of hockey stick trajectory.
So, circumstances and markets provide us with a disembodied “Paul Volcker,” to address imbalances with a long overdue hockey stick to the balls. Too bad this rebalancing will happen on our backs! Bessent hand-waves and points at bogeymen and bogus narratives, having inherited his boss’s tactics. He provides fake gravitas and that in-control finance insider aura, for PR purposes. His statements probably distract and bamboozle a good percentage of the believers.
The biggest game now I reckon is figuring out to whom, and how, to slide the dinner check. Incoming!
I was inspired here a few weeks back to buy a metals ETF. As of today I’m fancying I’m smart.
What happens when nobody trusts anything anybody in this administration says? Or are we already there?
A third of Usonians are still true believers in the Epstein Class and their scion.
Trump handed big perks to the rich. Tax cuts are the way the GOP has for years tossed them a bone. The rabble are handled more cheaply by various (depreciating) attention-economy baubles. Their golden tennis shoes and digital “assets” will of course go to the moon — some increasingly far off day. As will their relief from inflation, and other new consequences to be handed off to them.
A pretty good old joke I heard pre-POTUS Dubya deliver well on camera:
“You can’t fool all the people all the time. But you can fool *some* of them all the time. … Those are the people you want to concentrate on.”
…That is whimsically related to your question, I think. Maybe…
That reminds me of another Dubya classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjmjqlOPd6A
Economist have a five-dollar term for it: adverse selection.