Jobs Rebounded in August, Unemployment Rate Steady at 4.1 Percent.
Understanding the Lead Chart
Note: If you have seen this explanation, please skip to down to the subtitle “Initial Thoughts” to continue reading.
Every January (typically), the BLS has annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls and household population employment. The BLS does not back revise the household charts.
Because the BLS does not back revise, we see ridiculous numbers such as employment rising by over 2 million in a month (first yellow arrow).
To correct for the population adjustments, the BLS provides an adjustment series to normalize employment levels to match nonfarm payrolls. The BLS calls this “experimental” data but the regular posted data is admitted nonsense.
The experimental series is LNS16000000, “Employment Adjusted to CES Concepts“.
For 2024, the BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.
For 2025, the BLS admits that it overcounted employment by 1.4 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2026.
We did not suddenly add 2.245 million jobs in January of 2025, all US-Born. (Difference between the dashed blue line and the yellow line).
Moreover, there is no valid historical data on full vs parttime employment, on foreign born employment, and many other BLS data series. And there won’t be. There are no back adjustments key data components.
All posts on foreign-born employment, parttime employment, etc., suffer this flaw. All year-over-year (or December-to January) analysis you find on these stats is permanently flawed.
2025 Experimental Data
In April, the BLS released Experimental series accounting for January 2026 population control effects.
(Official CPS estimates for December 2025 and earlier months have not been revised, in accordance with usual practice.)
Experimental Series
In 2025, BLS produced new experimental time series measures to account for the size and timing of the large population changes reflected in the January 2025 population control adjustment.
The experimental series use the monthly time series (back to April 2020) available from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates that form the basis of the January 2026 CPS population control adjustment.
The experimental series are smoother over time, as they do not show the annual effects of the population control adjustments that occur each January in the official series.
The experimental series adjusts data back to April 2020, the decennial census reference point.
Standard vs More Accurate Experimental Data
- Between December 2024 and January 2025, the standard data shows an increase of 2,245,000. The adjusted data shows a gain of 692,000.
- For December 2025, the employment level is a reported 163,992,000 vs the adjusted data at 162,557,000.
- By December 2025, the standard data employment level was overstated by 1,365,000. That did not happen in a single month. It was the result of cumulative months of bad data every month for a full year.
All standard year-over-year household data comparisons are nonsense. Comparisons between January and December of the prior year are also invalid.
Initial Thoughts
I will continue to use what the BLS refers to as “experimental data” because the official household data is admitted nonsense.
This was a good report following two disasters.
162,000 blew past the Econoday consensus estimate was 55,000 jobs. And we had strong positive revisions for a change.
Here are the latest, undoubtedly wrong, and soon to be revised monthly job report details.
Monthly Job Report Details
- Nonfarm Payroll: +162,000 to 159,075,000 – Establishment Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +133,000 to 275,415,000
- Civilian Labor Force: +683,000 to 169,777,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: +0.2 to 61.6% – Household Survey
- Employment: +569,000 to 162,746,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: +115,000 to 6,916,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 to 4.1% – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: -551,000 to 105,638,000 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.0 to 7.7% – Household Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector
Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands
- Nonfarm Payrolls:+162
- Manufacturing: +16
- Construction: +22
- Leisure and Hospitality:-40
- Private Education and Health Care: +29
- Professional and Business Services: +10
- Information: -23
- Financial: -11
- Retail: +1
- Wholesale: +85
- Government: +35
Government Jobs Breakdown
- State: -10
- Federal: -5
- Local: +50
Construction is up as are professional and business services. Both are related to the AI boom.
Data centers and power are the only construction positives from a year ago.
Growth in Professional and Business Services is AI rehiring. Companies expected too much out of AI.
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000.
- The change for July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000.
- With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.
BLS Notes: “The 2026 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data will be published on August 28, 2026. This is the same day that the first-quarter 2026 data from QCEW will be issued.”
“Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision.”
By standard practice, the BLS will leave the published data and charts in a known-to-be-wrong state. This is why I use the alleged “experimental” data.
I have an update on the revisions coming up soon.
Part-Time Jobs
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -414,000 to 4,390,000
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: -18,000 to 22,752,000
- Total Full-Time Work: +755,000 to 134,288,000
- Total Part-Time Work: -233,000 to 28,541,000
- Multiple Job Holders: +112,000 to 8,805,000
The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.
These numbers are highly unreliable for reasons noted above. Year-over-year comparisons are invalid, period. The BLS does not update these numbers in the experimental data.
Hours and Wages
- Average weekly hours of all private employees rose 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.
- Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees rose 0.1 hour to 33.3 hours.
- Average weekly hours of manufacturers rose 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours.
Of course, this data is only as good as the data collection.
Hourly Earnings
This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.10 to $37.75. A year ago the average wage was $36.62. That’s a gain of 3.1%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.11 to $32.53. A year ago the average wage was $31.49. That’s a gain of 3.3%.
Accurately counted, these gains are not close to keeping up with inflation.
By accurate counting I mean factoring in homeowner’s insurance, property taxes, and tips on food. All three are excluded from the CPI. The BLS weights on food at home vs away are also wrong.
Unemployment Rate
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
- The official unemployment rate is 4.1 percent.
- U-6 is much higher at 7.7 percent.
Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.
The entire series is flawed by non-applied annual benchmark revisions.
The series is also flawed by poor response rates, deportations, illegals not answering phones, sampling errors and non-sampling errors.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.
The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.
For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
Birth-Death Methodology Explained
I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the usual calculation is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report?
I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
- The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
- The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Foreign-Born Employment
The numbers in my charts are seasonally adjusted. Foreign born employment is not adjusted, compounding comparison errors.
And we have no BLS revised data for foreign born employment. So, all such foreign and US-born comparisons with BLS data remain nonsense.
A second major problem with foreign-born employment is the BLS makes no distinction between US citizens who were foreign born and genuine foreign workers.
Comments on BLS Data
The BLS monthly data is garbage.I do the best with BLS data that I can, or anyone can.
The quarterly QCEW and Business Employment (BED)reports represent a 96 percent sample. But those reports lag by about 5 months.
The Birth-Death model that feeds the monthly jobs report is bogus. It has been screwed up since Covid, first underreporting jobs then overreporting them.
QCEW and BED data show more jobs are now being lost in closing businesses than gained in new businesses.
Annual revisions have been lower for three consecutive years.
However, there are hints from QCEW that the bulk of negative annual revisions may finally be in the past.
Final Thoughts
This was a very good report for a change.
However, one has to wonder how messed up the Household phone survey is due to response rates from illegal aliens. Are illegal immigrants answering these surveys? If not, then other individuals are overweighted.
The establishment data is also suspect. Are minority firms or firms dependent on immigrants answering these surveys?
I think not, and if not, then survey responses from firms dependent on immigrants are overweight, boosting the numbers.
I have a report coming up from the 2026 Q1 QCEW report. That data is current through Mach, and believable.
Related Posts
July 31, 2026: How Much Did AI Spending Contribute to Second-Quarter 2026 GDP?
Five charts show the AI impact for every quarter starting 2025 Q1.
August 5, 2026: What Is Leading US Construction Spending? Hint, It’s Not Manufacturing
Construction spending details are a real eye opener.
August 28, 2026: The BLS Annual Benchmark Revision for March 2026 Is -178,000 Private Jobs
The total revision was -79,000. This is the smallest benchmark revision since 2021.
That report is on the revision itself. I have a more detailed report on QCEW jobs coming up.
I suppose am very very naive.
Would someone please explain to me how ADP’s estimate was 38,000.
While the Government number was 162,000 (just a bit before the midterm elections).
124,000 is not a slight difference.
All help in understanding will be appreciated.
Many thanks.
Apparently, most of the jobs went to women.
What will prick the US AI/Data Center malinvestment super bubble with the Buffet Indicator (US equity/US GDP) over 240 on 13 Aug 2026?
Global diesel exports have fallen by 6 million barrels a day since the beginning of the Zionist-Trump gulf war. Diesel prices are in an Elliot wave/Lammert fractal daily and weekly terminal blow-off phase of price increases and hit a national average record high in the US this week.
Farmers and commercial and passenger transport are being squeezed to their operational limits and price increases will be transferred to consumers, temporarily tying the Fed’s hands with inflationary concerns. This is the end of this 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal cycle. The recent August positive jobs report was the last hurrah in the AI/Data Center credit expansion. Expect the expected…
I’m sure the numbers will be revised downward next month.
The last two months were revised upwards, as Mish noted.
If you’re so “sure” the numbers are wrong, you should look at shorting the stock market or making money bets on Kalshi. You’ll be a millionaire in no time.
“How to lie with Statistics” comes to mind. It’s supposed to be a guide book of what not to do, but the BLS didn’t get the memo.
I have a minor in statistics, and what always amazed me about statistics was how incredibly small a proper sample had to be to accurately produce a representative result for a population. The BLS is breaking most of the rules concerning how to gather a proper sample, and they are doing it almost certainly on purpose.
Specifically, you would have to interview 26000 working age adults (out of approximately 211,000,000 persons) chosen from a properly constructed independent random sample to get accurate employment data for the United States with 99.9% confidence and less than a 1% margin of error. This is legit. Look it up. The BLS could hire 200 people, and each could interview 130 people weekly.
The issue is the calls are not answered. The sampling data is retrievable from state unemployment, actual business formation data, IRS quarterly reporting 1099, FICA, real estate signings of leases for commercial and closures, etc., The data collection for enterprise must be mandatory, Banking data collection of new startups, new business licenses from the cities, etc.
The data is out there and collection in the 21st Century is not a problem. it is political will and upgrading the reporting from the various state, county, city, banking, IRS, etc., transferring it to the aCommerce Department.
Presidents, the FED and congresses don’t want accurate data. It would expose that the US in many ways is a 3rd world economy with double digit unemployment in the teens, 10% or more CPI, etc.
So double or triple the sample size and the number of workers to deal with non-responders. Use technology to assist with the sample selection process, and check against social security data as part of the interview process to discard bad samples (e.g. ask what their job status was two or three months ago, and cross check SS data to filter out liars). Use mathematics to deal with the 3x sample size and the issue of non-responders to minimize error. Look, there is an easy fix here, compared to the method BLS is currently using, which is biased as hell. Even the QCEW doesn’t use actual social security payroll taxes, but instead looks at unemployment insurance claims! Definitely not independent random samples or use of crucial available data with current survey methodology!
Your statistics educator should have told you when your sample size methodological approach is appropriate (and not).
Good example:
A manufacturer produces tens of thousands of flywheels to be used in autos or other heavy machinery. The manufacturer controls the production process and the outputs (flywheels). He calculates an appropriate sample size N to achieve a ‘safe’ confidence level, then randomly selects that number of flywheels which are stacked right in front of him to ensure they perform as necessary.
The flywheels can’t say they don’t want to be tested. They can’t hide from the tester. The testing tools are specifically designed to test for material strength. And if the testing is not done this way, people get maimed or killed in machinery misfires.
Bad example:
Try to treat people like flywheels LOL
Current (and potential) workers are very different from each other, are scattered across an enormous land mass, have different modes of ‘working’, aren’t immediately available randomly for a check-in (even including their work data as you propose above), and can/want to refuse to be counted.
Your simplistic statistical methodology does not work well here. And who cares – to the degree you are advocating? The BLS is measuring to one decimal point the general monthly level of employment (or unemployment) of 200M+ people across the US. Each of these individuals knows (and cares) if they are employed or not. But no one dies if the estimate (for the purpose of some undetermined small monetary policy action in the future) is off by a small fraction.
Thanks for pointing out the giant cover-up ongoing for decades within the BLS to deceive the public LOL
If only Snowden had used its time in the limelight to find and disseminate the data to prove this conspiracy?
Mish, check Leisure and Hospitality job numbers for Aug:?
+60 K vice -40k (mostly restaurant/food industry). The Trumpist midterm candidates will likely toot these numbers as a spectacular success for the president’s war and trade policies, but the reality is the August (and revised recent monthly data) terminal job expansion is caused by the (terminal) AI/data center bubble credit expansion. On the other hand, how can the Fed lower rates with this booming economy’s inflationary pressure? Steve Keen, the Australian economist, is laying the coming collapse squarely on (the Zionists’ and) our beholden president’s special military operation in Iran, which is limiting oil supply, and even more significantly so – helium, world semiconductor production, sulfuric acid, world copper production, and fertilizers. With oil/diesel prices in the current blow-off during the global initial equity collapse, the Trumpists, before the midterms, will be squarely blamed … but the AI/data centers’ bubble and the massive private credit expansion, replete with bad debt, is the primary culprit.
Trump’s nominee at BLS was confirmed recently. His surname is Matsumoto. He has a PHD in Economics from UNC at Chapel Hill.
Bureau of Lying Statistics has been publishing GIGO since St. Reagan got ahold of it and has continued with every successor that mirrors Reagan’s neoliberal philosophy and policies since whether they were a Democrat or a Republican.
Prior to Matsumoto’s promotion he started working at BLS in 2015 so a part of the GIGO reporting mechanism when St. Obama was president. Matsumoto transferred to the WH Council of Economic of Advisors in both Trump administrations and was their lead economist.
So let’s connect the dots: Trump fired former BLS head because he didn’t like the data. He nominates a former right wing Heritage employee that also significantly contributed to the reactionary right wing book Project 2025. The nominee, Antoni, wanted to stop BLS data from being reported. He had published questionable at best economic data slanting it to fit his ideology. He attended the January 6th Capitol Hill protests, and his tweets were found to be misogynist and anti LGBTQ that even some GOP senators wouldn’t meet with him. Trump pulls the nomination and submits a more acceptable nominee.
Matsumoto is considered a reformist nerd. He wants to change how the anachronistic data gathering systems are accumulated. He also wants to end the political slanting how the data has been reported in the past. He wants the non political employees to vet the new gathering methods before implementation. On its face, these are all improvements over the GIGO methodologies and I look forward to reading and hearing about these alterations to improve BLS reporting if his testimony is to be believed.
At the same time, his first report shows that the job market has improved and revisions from prior months also improved. In a flagging labor economy that is not keeping up with inflation he signs off on a report showing 59,000 were hired in the bartending, food and alcohol service business in this report. Color me skeptical. Boomers are keeping away from home drinking and eating establishments going but 59,000 more where I anecdotally and my Boomer friends have all cutback eating out is a bridge too far for me.
He also approved that more full time employees and by 700,000 plus were added, part time employment went down as did the gig worker labor force employment. And to put a cherry on top the labor force participation rate also went up.
So I am to infer from this that the job market has improved since his confirmation? Again, color me skeptical.
To be fair, this is only one report so it could be accurate per the GIGO reported data and only time will tell if it was an outlier or a positive political trend just in time for the election season.
I can hardly wait till next Friday’s CPI report for August comes out as well as other BLS reports on prices for imports and exports, etc. to come out to add to my skepticism or that Trump’s economy suddenly improved just in time during the fall campaign season.
yup. raygun cooked the books on unemployment numbers big time. first real grifter to do that.
Any prediction (or odds), Mish, on the next recession starting after these employment numbers?
162000 new jobs, 158000 for women, 4000 for men… why don’t we talk about that?
Its because schools hiring before start of school year, and surge in other female dominated jobs like in healthcare and leisure/travel.
Its really amzaing that we have to keep lying to ourselves by manipulating
the figures . . .
it’s sort of like 80 year old billionaire grifters who wear wigs and think 30 year old grifter women are in love with him.
Messing with the central bank is never a good idea.
“I will continue to use what the BLS refers to as “experimental data” because the official household data is admitted nonsense.”
I have never gotten a phone call from the BLS asking my employment status. Several years ago I asked friends, relatives and my elderly parent if they had ever gotten a call from the BLS. No, not a single phone call for any of them.
I suspect the household survey is bogus, or at the least in some way rigged.
I read in the Guardian that, “Trump cited August’s strong jobs report as sufficient justification to lower rates, and warned that, if the central bank didn’t go along, he’d halt trade between the US and any nations with which it maintains a trade deficit…
“LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, aiming the appeal directly at his handpicked new Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh.”
Puerile & Petulant…how log will UncleSam let this go on?
he is a perfect reflection of the voters who elected him. democracy works. the ugliest reality most modern amerikans cannot accept.
He IS Uncle Sam!
He is a functionary of UncleSam…just a less polished front-man
uncle sam’s hometown is Troy NY. a new small tech hub in the capitol region of NYS on the hudson. the grateful dead summed up what uncle sam really is.
Only in TACO America does a moron president think that a positive jobs report signals a rate cut with rising diesel fuel, food, labor input, fertilizer, etc., costs while debasing the currency.
And if his proxy war in Ukraine and the Iran War continues, by next year Americans will look back and think these inflationary times were not bad compared to the hyper-inflationary ‘27.
The Federal Reserve better lower interest rates. This time Trump means it.
So said Vance, too. Vance is beclowning himself. If he thinks he’ll be able to shake the Trumpian filth from himself, he’s wrong. If he had any balls, he should start contradicting Trump in public. Trump could have him killed, but he can’t fire him.
BLS is really one letter too much. take out the L. why waste brain cells on this stuff except for eyeballs and chattering of bored traders…………..
I expected a good report, not quite this good however, as I thought the Trump administration would try to make it believable. I do not trust this data at all. Trump needs a good employment reports this and next month, better than he even expects, for the election. I suspect the revisions will be severe to the downside after the election and blamed on democrats because market participants will expecting bad policy according to Trump. He should be looking at his bad policy and making adjustments, if he did maybe he would not need to fabricate lies.
His thing is lies. It’s his only competency. He knows he lies. We know he lies. He knows we know he lies. He doesn’t care.
Today is “KUDOS DAY”!
Great job Mish!
Looks like the President threatening the Fed chair this morning.
The Fed chair can only be fired for cause.
The Canadian unemployment rate also came out today.
6.4%
I wonder how that will play out as their trade war with the U.S. continues? They don’t seem to have a lot of options, but because they are so prideful, my guess is that they will continue “the good fight” until Americans buckle, or something.
The US will have fewer options also, if Trump cuts off more trade.
I fully support free trade. But I don’t support Canadians giving themselves trade protections (their auto industry and others) while expecting the U.S. to be fully blanketed with Canadian goods with no restrictions at all.
It’s always funny to me that people argue that restricted trade is bad for Americans, but in other countries they argue that it’s good for them when they do it. Mark Carney was on about “protecting the Canadian auto industry” the other day, and yet Trump is an idiot when he says the same thing about the American auto industry.
Can someone explain why protectionism is bad for Americans but good for everyone else?
less gov intervention in trading from one human with another, whether over state borders or international borders. the rest is eyewash.
In which case the Chinese autos sweep away our auto industry, as well as that of Europe and Canada, right? The alternatives are ugly: we are already paying absurd prices for (arguably) inferior cars. But at what point do the essentials of global economic hegemony pass to the Chinese? I think Germany/VW are buckling under this, as I speak. Russia has already been subsumed under China. Chinese automakers are knocking on Canada’s and Mexico’s door. We need a new hand at the tiller who isn’t swamped to the gunwales with hallucinatory mythology.
Agree with you excerpting your final sentence. Just because we change the figurehead leader doesn’t mean that things will improve. Would AOC do a better job?
nope. services and entertainment are places usa excels. comparative advantage is a real thing.
Just stop with this nonsense Business Man. Trump has no principles at all, there is no rule that he believes should apply to everyone. Trump believes other countries should do what he tells them to do, but that Trump and America can and should do whatever they want.
You should call yourself Going Out of Business Man, because you sure don’t know much about U.S.-Canada trade yet are confidently opining about it. Canada imposed ZERO tariffs on both US-produced autos AND auto parts imports prior to Trump 2.0. Americans HAD a real free-trading nation right on their border, that they had a trade surplus in manufacturing with (& still do) — and that surplus is mainly related to autos & auto parts. But then the apparently dementia-ridden Trump 2.0 came along and pissed that all away. One of the dumbest “own goals”in US trade history!
No restrictions at all? Canada is not saying that. They are saying they can’t live with 25% tariffs and they are saying that Ford can’t make money if they have to pay a 25% tariff on parts that come from Canada. So effectively this will shut down trade in the auto sector.
Canada at this point is the only source for certain parts so basically Ford could be out of business while someone in the US figures out how to make these parts and sets up factories to do so.
Manufacturers don’t want to start that process because Trump or the next government may change the rules again.
Even then these companies would need to import aluminum from Canada to make some of these parts which is also being tariffed so the parts would still be more expensive.
Just like the Iranian Regime.
Here comes the rate hike I suppose. I highly doubt jobs are actually that great right now but who’s to tell the Fed that. Besides things are so out of control hiking is the only correct option regardless, I’m paying half my paycheck for what used to be $50 in groceries.
Sticker shock at the grocery store.
There was a lot of complaining (I agreed with) when minimum wages were being jacked up, as being a job-killer, among other things. Things like that got me cooking at home all week. But what about these other inflationary inputs like diesel? I do not hear the “conservative” chorus at the same pitch. Why not? Because Orange Deity and his stooges say it is fine when their boondoggles add frictions, versus the commie Dems, because the newly reengineered goal posts are just over there. Almost.
We wouldn’t need to hike the minimum wage if we just made companies give workers jobs that paid an honest day’s wage like they did in the 50s. Everyone seems to forget that you could go a lot further flipping fries back then (you could actually afford not to be on the street). Everyone wants the 50s back but won’t admit that the good parts were all thanks to FDR tearing corporations a new asshole if they stepped out of line.
“Don’t look back. We’re not going that way!”
America thrived in the ’50’s because we were the only industrialized country not destroyed by WWII. We were exporting cars, planes, tractors, food, TV’s … everything. That allowed US factory workers to make a good living – which trickled down to other jobs. It could not last, since countries like Germans, Japan, Korea, etc. were bound to get up off their knees and compete with American products.
A tiny .25 interest bump isn’t going to amount to anything. A full point, at least, is needed.
As to your grocery bill: Eat less. You are probably overweight and need to lose lbs.
Appreciate you explaining the “Nonsense Employment Sausage” manufacturing methodology, Mish! Especially given in my state the stats continue to look very soft. Then again, Oregon is controlled politically by public employee unions…at times it feels as if all that matters is THEY’RE okay, so the state’s okay. /sarc
Or was this number “adjusted” to help taco with the mid-term elections?
If next week’s CPI inflation report for August has signs of markedly lower inflation, the answer is yes. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
Prima facia is PPI has been higher for months.
so odds of a rate hike just went up I suppose. What do you think the new odds of a September hike are?
60% (my guess)