Diesel jumped nearly 10 cents today after 5 cents yesterday.
My chart shows EIA weekly ending Monday fuel prices except for the current point from AAA.
AAA National Average Fuel Prices
The AAA record high is $5.8159 and the current AAA price is $5.7832.
Diesel is 3.28 cents from a new record AAA high, now a given, perhaps tomorrow.
Gas Buddy
Peak season for diesel has arrived.
Harvesting Peak: August to November
The agricultural harvest is an “energy-thirsty” period driven by rigid seasonal schedules and heavily concentrated geographic demand.
- The Core Drivers: High-volume fuel use shifts into overdrive as massive farming equipment—including combines, tractors, and grain carts—runs continuously from early morning until night. Once crops are reaped, heavy-duty trucks and freight trains consume massive amounts of diesel to transport commodities to storage elevators and processing plants.
- Timing & Geography: In the United States, demand escalates heavily in the Midwest. The spike begins in late August, reaches its maximum crest in October, and tapers off by late November.
- Market Dynamics: Because modern farming has increasingly adopted “no-till” or conservation planting methods in the spring, the agricultural demand for diesel is heavily lopsided toward the autumn harvest. Farmers typically buy fuel on an as-needed basis rather than storing it at scale, making them highly vulnerable to rapid price hikes
The Christmas / Holiday Shipping Peak: September to December
While harvesting centers on extracting raw materials, the Christmas peak centers on distributing finished consumer goods.
- The Core Drivers: This surge powers multi-modal logistics networks—ocean containers, locomotives, long-haul trucking, parcel delivery vans, and retail restocking hubs.
- Timing Phases: The “Holiday Peak” actually plays out in two distinct waves:
- The Import/Wholesale Peak (Late Summer/Early Autumn): Ocean freight and rail transportation see massive volume spikes from August through October as retailers aggressively stock warehouses with holiday inventory ahead of time.
- The Last-Mile/Retail Peak (November to December): High-intensity consumption shifts directly to e-commerce, parcel delivery, and regional food distribution networks, running intensely up until Christmas week.
- Market Dynamics: Holiday logistics demand is completely price-insensitive. E-commerce companies, distribution centers, and couriers must meet strict contract and calendar deadlines to prevent late deliveries or canceled orders. They will buy diesel to keep trucks moving regardless of how high fuel prices go.
| Market Vector | Harvest Impact | Christmas Impact | Combined Market Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory Impact | Draws heavily on localized fuel reserves, particularly in rural and agricultural hubs. | Drains nationwide commercial distribution inventories at terminal gates. | Compresses total available supplies right as winter heating oil demand begins to build. |
| Price Volatility | Hits local cash/spot premiums and increases operational costs for low-margin farm businesses. | Drives up truckload freight rates and triggers carrier “peak-season fuel surcharges”. | Drives widening crack spreads (refining profit margins), which sharply raises prices for the end consumer. |
Politically speaking, good luck with that.
It is nearly certain Democrats win the House and they are a slight favorite to win the Senate too.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices will impact the election. So, Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
That’s not my forecast now, but I do expect them to win at least four.
I saw somewhere that one of the Fed dead fish announced today that it is not going to vote for a rate hike…
Expect this to pick up in the coming days. By the time we get to the 15th, a rate hike would no longer be on the cards.
That dead fish was Waller.
Vance came out today asking for the Fed to lower rates to help with home affordability. Yes, let’s make it easier for people to buy over-priced homes that were inflated in price by the Feds easy money policy.
You can’t make this stuff up. Our leaders are stupid.
They’re not stupid. They’re kicking the can down the road. That way, it’s someone else’s problem.
$10.78 Diesel
$10.83 Gasoline (regular)
3-IX Amsterdam €2,45/L.
Beat my call by a few days. Damn.
Okay, so now it’s a larger price to pay.
BTW, while your jaw was on the floor over the $40T US debt, they borrowed yet another $100B.
No wonder the bond market is FUBAR.
There needs to be a decapitation strike on the regime.
This isn’t France, lol.
I’ll vote for whoever campaigns with the slogan:
“Vote for me! I’m the discount candidate!”
But but JoJo says we should go electric or we shouldn’t be in business but I don’t see too many electric combine harvesters.
So my guess of 3 days was …. pessimistic???
it will not get better: Defense Secretary Hegseth quietly extends troop deployments in Iran into 2027 https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/artc-pentagon-quietly-extends-troop-deployments-as-iran-war-drags-toward-2027-report
Why would any American willingly vote for another round of this chaos? At some point, “stupid is as stupid does” stops being a punchline and starts looking like a national talent show.
All Americans who were OK with Trump and his policies until “fuel prices got high” deserve every inch of the dick being shoved up their asses right now.
B-buh I hate brown people and queers!!! Why stuff expensive??
I must have filled up with diesel then today as I paid $5.89 for what was claimed to be super 94 (91 premium was 5.69). Regular was 4.39.
Regular unleaded is $3.38 here.
Thank you taco for your ill-fated policies that continue to feed higher inflation rates led by increasing energy prices. You are a real “jewel.”
The Jewel of our Golden Age!