Diesel jumped nearly 10 cents today after 5 cents yesterday.
My chart shows EIA weekly ending Monday fuel prices except for the current point from AAA.
AAA National Average Fuel Prices
The AAA record high is $5.8159 and the current AAA price is $5.7832.
Diesel is 3.28 cents from a new record AAA high, now a given, perhaps tomorrow.
Gas Buddy
Peak season for diesel has arrived.
Harvesting Peak: August to November
The agricultural harvest is an “energy-thirsty” period driven by rigid seasonal schedules and heavily concentrated geographic demand.
- The Core Drivers: High-volume fuel use shifts into overdrive as massive farming equipment—including combines, tractors, and grain carts—runs continuously from early morning until night. Once crops are reaped, heavy-duty trucks and freight trains consume massive amounts of diesel to transport commodities to storage elevators and processing plants.
- Timing & Geography: In the United States, demand escalates heavily in the Midwest. The spike begins in late August, reaches its maximum crest in October, and tapers off by late November.
- Market Dynamics: Because modern farming has increasingly adopted “no-till” or conservation planting methods in the spring, the agricultural demand for diesel is heavily lopsided toward the autumn harvest. Farmers typically buy fuel on an as-needed basis rather than storing it at scale, making them highly vulnerable to rapid price hikes
The Christmas / Holiday Shipping Peak: September to December
While harvesting centers on extracting raw materials, the Christmas peak centers on distributing finished consumer goods.
- The Core Drivers: This surge powers multi-modal logistics networks—ocean containers, locomotives, long-haul trucking, parcel delivery vans, and retail restocking hubs.
- Timing Phases: The “Holiday Peak” actually plays out in two distinct waves:
- The Import/Wholesale Peak (Late Summer/Early Autumn): Ocean freight and rail transportation see massive volume spikes from August through October as retailers aggressively stock warehouses with holiday inventory ahead of time.
- The Last-Mile/Retail Peak (November to December): High-intensity consumption shifts directly to e-commerce, parcel delivery, and regional food distribution networks, running intensely up until Christmas week.
- Market Dynamics: Holiday logistics demand is completely price-insensitive. E-commerce companies, distribution centers, and couriers must meet strict contract and calendar deadlines to prevent late deliveries or canceled orders. They will buy diesel to keep trucks moving regardless of how high fuel prices go.
| Market Vector | Harvest Impact | Christmas Impact | Combined Market Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory Impact | Draws heavily on localized fuel reserves, particularly in rural and agricultural hubs. | Drains nationwide commercial distribution inventories at terminal gates. | Compresses total available supplies right as winter heating oil demand begins to build. |
| Price Volatility | Hits local cash/spot premiums and increases operational costs for low-margin farm businesses. | Drives up truckload freight rates and triggers carrier “peak-season fuel surcharges”. | Drives widening crack spreads (refining profit margins), which sharply raises prices for the end consumer. |
Politically speaking, good luck with that.
It is nearly certain Democrats win the House and they are a slight favorite to win the Senate too.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices will impact the election. So, Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
That’s not my forecast now, but I do expect them to win at least four.
[…] September 3, 2026: The Price of Diesel Hit a New Record on Gas Buddy, AAA Tomorrow […]
the coming trump depression will further accelerate concentration of wealth and the reflation will screw everyone but the first money recipients. guess who those entities are during the trump depression and the reflation. same same
China’s replacing diesel vehicles with EVs.
Trucks in general & also large mining trucks.
By 2030, at least 25% of trucks on the road will be EVs.
EV technology is such a hands down win, I don’t know why people still fight it.
Here’s an example of fully automated Chinese EV mining trucks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAUHNJqfG5Q
Chinese EV highway trucks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4hdQRGpQho
Ssshhhhh.
Most people here think EVs are a communist plot to destroy their God-given freedom.
And then many of them complain about high fuel prices LOL
The rest of the world seems to see the EV future for what it is, an easier way to separate yourself from global fuel price volatility (plus massive efficiency gains). One of four new car consumers worldwide have gone to EVs: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/trends-in-electric-cars
But many here will keep thinking they are smarter than everyone else in the world. But that’s what makes a market, I guess.
2 days ago, I wrote 13 days. This is why I don’t gamble with money.
Loser Dave.
Just read an article from Reuters about Trump wanting the Fed to cut interest rates and if they don’t he would stop trading with countries which the US had a deficit. Has this man got his comic book upside down or finally gone insane.
I dont think he can read comic books either
Per McMaster’s memoir from term 1 (I saw quoted somewhere), Trump’s daily national security briefing, unread by Trump, was reduced to an index card type format with 3 items. Then it was found the only read items 1 and 2.
Apparently he prefers the genius noise in his head.
So he’s blackmailing the Fed.
@realDonaldTrump September 4, 2026 @ 9:41 AM ET
Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates (except mine!) by double and triple – And you haven’t seen anything yet! EMPLOYERS ADDED 162,000 JOB IN AUGUST. Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago! A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE – IT’S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple! We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like “the old days.” Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE! LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged “the President” has an absolute right to do. ITS BETTER THAN TARIFFS! The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Do we then return to FULL WOKE-NESS?
That’s an inevitability, the people fighting “Woke-ness” were all mostly over the age of 60+ and they won’t be around much longer to fight it.
Woke-ness won’t last long.
Neither the Chinese or Muslims tolerate it in the least and one of both of those are more than likely the long term future in North America.
Yes, those particular culture wars may come to seem like bickering on the Titanic.
It is not a binary. (Hmm — wokerness versus full global derangement and decomposition? What a choice.)
We still have diverse (oops, bad word, right?) power centers in D.C. But I am concerned about that, along with immigration policy. So the Dems had better find an updated policy and speak up, pronto.
Price of gasoline at $4.00/ gallon is by no means near its peak.
THE COMING TRUMP DEPRESSIONThe businessman president’s lasting legacy might be plunging America into economic misery
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/the-coming-trump-depression
But first:
Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 September 2026
Well, here we are. We’ll label the recent low which bounced off of major support Minute [ii]. The call is for wave [iii] of 5 of (5) of [5] up. Should be grand if it happens.
“Gary Shilling Warns of 60–70% Recession Risk in the Next 12 Months”
I think Waller is right. While GDPnow is @ 4.7% for 3rd qtr. But that looks like a peak.
The clouds are forming images of happy angels.
Watching AG Day, they mentioned the War in Iran as the instigator for record diesel prices but they also talked about the War in the Black Sea as a huge factor. How many wars are going on right now and why isn’t Trump adding them to his list of wars ended?
Trump has already ended the War on Russia in 24 hours like he promised. Just ask him.
Trump has ended the War On Iran 30 times at least this year alone. Total victory, troops led personally by him into battle, their deeds of heroism inspired by his halfwit hairdo. Just ask him.
Still happy with your man in the White House farmers? It’s an expensive exercise voting in the person who hates the people you hate.
Diesel inventories are 14% below the 5 year average.
Diesel prices hit a record high for a day.
The average annual price for diesel will set a new record high this year.
Diesel impacts 70% of the economy: transportation and farming in particular. Almost every other commodity is basically diesel and dirt.
September to November is peak diesel consumption in the US. Pressure for higher prices will persist for the next few months.
Diesel crack spreads hit $106. Add that to WTI oil price of $92. So a barrel of diesel is going for $198.
Look for Trump to blame oil companies and Biden for the mess he created by attacking Iran.
How do diesel prices come down if the Hormuz Strait remains closed?
Right about now is when we wish we were more electrified like China.
Ask the people in Gary, Indiana what they think about that.
Just finished a 2 week blackout thanks to weather damaging aging infrastructure (imagine not being able to charge your electric car for a week plus). The media barely covered this because it’s in a ‘poor’ city but its probably coming to a city near you thanks to aging US infrastructure and increasingly erratic weather.
The electrification of China included a robust infrastructure.
Bury the lines. Where’s Frank Mrvan in his hardhat to watch over NIPSCO like he poses every 2 years in front of some steel plant? The north side-centric Chicago media couldn’t find their way to the city’s southeast side 10th Ward on a good day, let alone Gary, Hammond, East Chicago. The NWI paper is owned by The Tribune.Most of the gas stations were out of power (not fuel) on the
Illinois side (who knew?!) from the state line west to Halsted, from Harvey down to Beecher. That’s Com Ed territory.. Quite different demographics, those two. Went as far east as Valparaiso down 30. Mostly wind storm lasting about a half hour or less, but not much rain for the entire area. Temps were mild. If a house was not physically damaged and you ate all the ice cream the first night, then flashlight with D batteries and car lighter inverter would work fine.
There may have been even more rich/poor white/black fancy/plain socks equality in the center of the state to suit the media and race baiters for the disastrous flooding in Carmel and Muncie around the same time. Heard “… not since 1913” mentioned a lot.
Who’s going to pay for that? Sounds easy until you realize that means digging up all the streets and driveways when you have to cross over them.
Florida is burying lines in new developments or when roads are being redone but it takes decades to get it done.
I went thru that in Texas. Of course, none of the gas stations had power so my ICE car didn’t help.
Texas is behind the times then. In Florida all gas stations have generators for that exact reason. In 05 when I moved here many did not and people struggled mightily but that’s no longer the case.
The weather is not increasingly erratic.
tell that to nepal
When FEMA
existedfunctioned it used to aid people who suffered from disasters. Trump put an abrupt end to helping your fellow American, that’s for sure.So did Dubya, as I recall.
I saw somewhere that one of the Fed dead fish announced today that it is not going to vote for a rate hike…
Expect this to pick up in the coming days. By the time we get to the 15th, a rate hike would no longer be on the cards.
That dead fish was Waller.
Vance came out today asking for the Fed to lower rates to help with home affordability. Yes, let’s make it easier for people to buy over-priced homes that were inflated in price by the Feds easy money policy.
You can’t make this stuff up. Our leaders are stupid.
They’re not stupid. They’re kicking the can down the road. That way, it’s someone else’s problem.
It was easy to kick it as long as it is an empty soda can. But now, it is getting heavier. When it becomes a 5-gallon paint can, their foot will get broken if they try to kick it.
As long as it becomes someone else problem, nobody important cares.
Someone else will be left holding the bag, and that is all that matters.
They are just thieving wealth from everyone – simple as that, follow the money
As long as their elite class retains or improves its relative position, nothing else matters. This is even more potent for people who escaped to that position, like Vance.He is the Kim Kardashian of politics, a Frankenstein construct that somehow climbed out of the muck, to the stars. His “sex tape” was Hillbilly Elegy.
Then, since there are so few people atop that power and wealth ladder, they need a sufficient number of poor, useful idiots to buy in. That has been the GOP elites’ principal challenge for years.Roger Ailes, FOX, Limbaugh, and now Trump, simply delivered on that, Trump’s being a new and more virulent version. Sincere populist nationalists like Ross Perot or Pat Buchanan pointed out pathways, but never stood a chance. Only a truly media-brained cynic could pull it off, to reach that vein of utter fantasizing stupidity in the American spirit.
All these people are slitting their own throats and thanking him for it. The Dems are a whole other cartoon caravan, but many of the elites seem to sort of converge at the top now. They rewrite and cross over superficial labels easily and fluidly.
Yes, but unfortunately for them, Biden and Trump kicked the can down a sewer grate.
$10.78 Diesel
$10.83 Gasoline (regular)
3-IX Amsterdam €2,45/L.
Beat my call by a few days. Damn.
Okay, so now it’s a larger price to pay.
BTW, while your jaw was on the floor over the $40T US debt, they borrowed yet another $100B.
No wonder the bond market is FUBAR.
There needs to be a decapitation strike on the regime.
This isn’t France, lol.
You mean Trump?
I’ll vote for whoever campaigns with the slogan:
“Vote for me! I’m the discount candidate!”
But but JoJo says we should go electric or we shouldn’t be in business but I don’t see too many electric combine harvesters.
You obviously haven’t been looking at China’s latest stuff
Not arguing that. How many Chinese combine harvesters are sold in the US? Where is the Chinese combine dealership? I live in the middle of farm country and I don’t see one.
For that matter, according to PapaDave, “Diesel impacts 70% of the economy: transportation and farming in particular. Almost every other commodity is basically diesel and dirt.” By JoJo’s demented logic, some 70% of the economy should go bankrupt so that Israel can have its war.
China has electrified it’s agricultural equipment. Watch this American guy talking about it a couple of days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A31eGeW6bMc
That is a solid video, saw that yesterday and Kevin consistently nails his videos. Can learn a lot from his insights. E.G. fleet electrification cap ex cost vs annual liquid fuels costs savings, those are huuuge numbers.
So my guess of 3 days was …. pessimistic???
it will not get better: Defense Secretary Hegseth quietly extends troop deployments in Iran into 2027 https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/artc-pentagon-quietly-extends-troop-deployments-as-iran-war-drags-toward-2027-report
Its not a boots on the ground war like with Libya during the Obama administration. Its primarily a Navy war, with occasional Air Force involvement. I don’t think Trump wants boots on the ground.
Libya also did not feature a lot of boots on the ground. The goal was to smash things up and turn Libya into a failed state.
Why would any American willingly vote for another round of this chaos? At some point, “stupid is as stupid does” stops being a punchline and starts looking like a national talent show.
All Americans who were OK with Trump and his policies until “fuel prices got high” deserve every inch of the dick being shoved up their asses right now.
B-buh I hate brown people and queers!!! Why stuff expensive??
Couldn’t have said it more succinctly myself!
I must have filled up with diesel then today as I paid $5.89 for what was claimed to be super 94 (91 premium was 5.69). Regular was 4.39.
Regular unleaded is $3.38 here.
Regular is up to 15% Ethanol thanks to Trump. That’s why it hasn’t reached record prices like Diesel and why it’s so much cheaper than Premium.
And why many people will have engine problems without realizing why. The silent tax on blue collars.
Thank you taco for your ill-fated policies that continue to feed higher inflation rates led by increasing energy prices. You are a real “jewel.”
The Jewel of our Golden Age!
He’s the fake rock on nettingyahoo’s finger