Major Escalation, Iran Fired at US Aircraft Carrier, US Hits 3 Iranian Tankers

Iran’s attack on Navy warships amounts to major escalation.

US Strikes Iranian Tankers

The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Ships After Missiles Fired at American Aircraft Carrier

The U.S. military said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two Navy warships, including an aircraft carrier, as the fight to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

“A U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks,” said U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces throughout the conflict, but the attempted attack on the warships was seen as a major escalation, U.S. officials said.

“Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost—taking out three of yours,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, Centcom commander. “We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.”

Iranian state media reported that one oil tanker was struck overnight near Kharg Island, where Iran stores and loads most of its crude exports.

The U.S. said it had disabled that tanker, as well as a tanker near Iran’s Jask oil terminal. Additionally, the U.S. “completely destroyed” an unladed tanker in the Gulf of Oman, striking it multiple times to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship, Centcom said.

Iran Escalation

Hypersonic Missiles?

Then in response to US moves on Iranian tankers …

Iran Strikes Three More Tankers

How Many Ships?

Bullish for Price of Crude and Diesel

Iran’s Strategy

Another indication reinforcing what should now be understood about Iran’s current strategy:

1. Iran will not accept the continuation of the status quo. Tehran is not prepared to allow Washington to maintain intense economic pressure indefinitely without imposing costs of its own on the United States.
2. Iran will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal while it remains under a maritime blockade. Tehran’s basic position is straightforward: if Iran cannot export its oil freely, it will not simply allow everyone else to do so.
3. Iran is no longer waiting to be attacked before acting. It is increasingly willing to conduct preemptive operations when it believes an American strike is imminent. What happened tonight in Jordan is another indication of this shift.
4. Tehran’s central message is economic. Iran wants Washington to understand that maintaining the current pressure campaign will impose significant costs not only on Iran, but on the global economy, and ultimately on American consumers.
5. Iranian leaders believe they can win a “contest of pain” with Washington. That calculation rests heavily on their assessment of Iran’s ability to absorb prolonged economic pressure while creating economic, military, and political costs for the United States and its partners.
6. Effective economic pressure should not be confused with successful coercion. Sanctions and the maritime blockade can hurt Iran significantly without bringing it closer to capitulation. In fact, the greater the pressure, the more likely Tehran is to intensify its own actions.
7. Jordan has become increasingly important in Iranian strategic calculations as more U.S. military assets and capabilities in the Middle East have been concentrated there. That makes Jordan a more significant potential target in a broader U.S.–Iran confrontation.
8. Iran remains willing to return to the previous memorandum of understanding, but on terms it considers acceptable. Tehran is not seeking an endless war. But neither will it refrain from using its capabilities as long as the current situation continues.
9. Iran’s decision-making process regarding the use of force has changed dramatically. The hesitation and extreme caution that previously characterized decisions involving direct friction with U.S. forces are far less evident today.
10. Iran is more proactive, more offensive, and more willing to take the initiative. Tehran still appears to operate within certain rules of the game and to calibrate escalation. But if the United States attacks Iran directly, it should be assumed that Tehran will be prepared to expand the confrontation.
11. Iran is not going to capitulate at the negotiating table. Nor should Washington expect Tehran to offer substantially greater concessions than those already discusse, including its demand for a recognized role in the future arrangements governing the Strait of Hormuz.

These are no longer simply predictions about what Iran might do. They should be the operating assumptions for anyone trying to understand Iran’s current strategy.

The crucial distinction for Washington is between hurting Iran and coercing Iran. The United States may be capable of doing the former. There is little evidence that economic and military pressure alone will produce the latter.

If U.S. strategy continues to assume that enough pressure will eventually force Tehran to surrender its core demands, Washington risks building its policy around an Iranian response that is increasingly unlikely to materialize.

But this is OK because the US has won the war 44 times already. Iran’s missiles have been destroyed.

Otherwise, where would we be?

In the real world, the price of diesel hit a new record today, up another three cents to $5.8819 and headed to $6 and beyond.

But that’s OK too because Trump Says “I’ll Never Apologize, You’re Just Paying a Tiny Bit More”

Trump just handed the Democrats another midterm election talking point.

Also in the real world, China Halts Some Rare Earth Element Shipments to the US

Ahead of Xi’s meeting with Trump, China holds back rare earth shipments.

And finally, please note a Classified Document Leak Shows US Is Militarily Overextended in Iran

The truth is out. Hegseth has seriously messed up the war in Iran.

Now who are you going to believe, Hegseth and Trump, or the price at the pump?