In yet another Just Like The Flu (Except) comparisons, please note Coronavirus Forces New York to Send Bodies Out of State for Cremation.
New York City funeral directors, struggling with a surge of coronavirus deaths and tight regulations, are sending hundreds of bodies out of state for cremation.
Each Wednesday, David Penepent, director of the funeral services administration program at the State University of New York, and his students drive more than six hours to the city, where over the next four days they load trucks with human remains and zigzag across the region, mostly to crematories in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Vermont.
“It’s like draining a bathtub with a tablespoon,” he said. “But it’s 210 human remains that families now have the opportunity to begin to grieve the loss of their loved one.” Mr. Penepent’s goal is to increase his fleet of trucks to 10 from three, and transport 600 bodies weekly.
Morbid Godsend
“He’s been absolutely a godsend,” Joe Neufeld Sr., the owner of Gerard J. Neufeld Funeral Home, said of Mr. Penepent. Located in Elmhurst, Queens, one of the areas of the city hardest hit by the Covid-19 crisis, the funeral home is now arranging about 60 funerals a week, Mr. Neufeld said, up from about eight before the crisis.
Covid-19 Deaths In Context and the Absurdity of Flu Comparisons
On April 21, I wrote Covid-19 Deaths In Context and the Absurdity of Flu Comparisons
Every day I am barraged with Tweets by pandemic illiterates who still compare Covid-19 to the flu, car crashes, heart disease etc.
In response I wrote the above article.
Covid-19 deaths will now easily exceed the Flu, but it is the speed at which that happened that is stunning.
In three weeks we went from a few deaths per week to numbers that exceed cancer and heart disease.
Deaths from heart disease and cancer have a known death rate that does not vary much. Hospitals can easily plan for that.
Hospitals can also plan on set rate of auto-related deaths.
Hospitals were not prepared for the onslaught of a dramatic, sudden rise in Covid-deaths even if these people would have “died anyway” as the naysayers say.
Rush to Reopen
Meanwhile, Trump’s huge rush to judgment to restart America, despite massively overpromising and under-delivering tests is pitiful.
Governors are wise to resist Trump’s pressure.
This is NOT Just like the Flu.
Mish
I think we actually have multiple strains of Covid-19 going. There is literally no explanation as to why the outbreak hasn’t been higher in California compared to New York. We’ve been lucky out here compared to New York but are prepared. Testing in Iceland found there are 3 strains of coronavirus going around and only one of them is lethal. There is probably some credence to the theory of better resistance in California due to longer exposure because of travel from China. A lot of the flu deaths in December out here were probably Covid-19.
Send them here while you still can,https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-comfort-leaving-nyc-few-coronavirus-patients-three-weeks-2020-4
As of April 21, NYC has 142,432 confirmed cases. At 50 to 1 ratio of undetected to confirmed cases, NYC has had 7.1 million cases out of a population of about 8.6 million. They are over the hump to herd immunity, if this is true. However, the studies in LA and Santa Clara counties may not be accurate. The fact that C19 was here weeks earlier than assumed reinforces the notion that there needs to be a large number of unconfirmed cases to produce sufficient serious cases in order for C19 to be noticed. This would be very good news, if true. This would mean that NYC is as bad as it gets and it won’t get that bad there again. We can hope and time will tell.
This is a bunch of b.s. and misinformation.
Based on the post content it seems like Misc is a “robo-poster” that got “stuck” like an old vinyl LP …
It’s never a good thing when all a person can do is attack another’s character. Just like Mish when he calls everyone who disagrees with him on Covid 19 a “fool” or an “illiterate “. Any article that begins with attacking another’s character is a good indication that stupidity is sure to follow.
Always difficult to avoid self-reference in a post like that, isn’t it?
Trump is back at his despicable best. After pressuring and cajoling governors to reopen their states for business he now sits on the sidelines criticizing certain governors for opening prematurely. Gives him the cover to say I warned everyone if and when it all goes pear shaped.
We need to change how this is thought about.
CV is the “reverse ebola”
There is a lot of emerging evidence that THE serious effect of CV is increased blood-clotting. This is the reverse of ebola, which was decreased blood-clotting (with blood leaking from blood vessels and through body membranes).
In CV, blood clots form in the lungs at the site where blood oxygenation occurs. As more and more are blocked off by clots, the result is the dry cough and pneumonia symptoms that follow. Blood oxygenation levels fall to unprecedented levels–unlike standard pneumonia, you can wander around for quite a while. And it also explains the examples of people falling over in the streets. Blood clots damage kidneys. Blood clots cause strokes. Blood clots cause loss of blood flow to appendages and require amputation. Mild forms cause skin rashes. ECMO becomes the only effective way of getting oxygen into the blood until the lungs clear (deaths on ventilators are extremely high).
But, from my viewpont this is a reason for optimism because now we have a handle which we can use to open the mysteries of the illness and develop potential real treatments ahead of a possible vaccine.
The Stimulus Package is Just a Disguised Tax
Covid-19 isn’t the disaster you think it has been for politicians, its been a God send to help them disguise a recession that was long overdue. Now yes, it’s impossible to prove a recession would have happened if Covid-19 had never occurred, but lets for a second imagine what would have happened had the virus never spread and a recession had happened anyway in 2020. https://blog.weapp.ly/the-stimulus-package-is-just-a-disguised-tax/
Covid-19 has been in the States since January. Generally with a new disease there is an initial spike in the death rate as those most vulnerable succumb. If the new studies are correct, it puts the infection rate in a similar ballpark to the 2018 flu season in a few weeks time. There is also a case to be made in overcounting victims.
There are a lot of questions.
The virus is nasty when it attacks, and we don’t know enough about possible strains and pathology.
The counting, hence IFR and % infected are all over the place , PCR is also questionable
looks at some of this from the other side.
A naive population with a new virus will see the sort of effect we have now, there is a very big question mark over bias, manipulation.
Whatever is really going on, is not good.
Sorry Mish, but your chart is no good.
I am among the first to recognise there is a new virus, that it is destructive and that it also affects younger people. Also that it is contagious, might become more severe, that fatalities with or of it are high. Also that immunity is questionable.
We then enter into figures. We don’t know true background infection, therefore we do not know true IFR. Immunological essays are not reliable or deep enough to give an unbiased view, one that currently might be manipulated.
PCR tests are not accurate enough to give an unbiased view, one that might be manipulated. There are valid questions on threshold of accuracy.
Testing protocol and number of cases, when those appear, give a biased view.
The true measure is excess mortality, the chart you present uses past data merged with current figures. No good. In a naive population or by false accounting to the virus, the curve it represents might be deducted from the others. This will only show with real totals. The emergence of a new virus might push forward the curve of other fatalities and accumulate them under its own banner also, for example.
I am saying to not reach early conclusions that would seem obvious. The data should be studied both in aggregate and in granular form. Sequela and other effects of the virus need to be understood also.
I remain very cynical to all presentations of any kind.
Here is an example of the kind of presentation necessary
He seems to adhere to climate change, is I think for not underplaying the virus.
The point of my posting his adjusted graph (blue line) is fuller context is available to wider background data, for example previous flu epidemics. Admitted that lockdown has an effect, admitted national data is not representative of local data with severe outbreak. NYT ran a series, as have others, and what stands out often is the purposeful omission of context. Part of that omission is poor data (no clear IFR, no granular data on cases), but part of it is of just not supplying the wider available context, there is no excuse for that, it does come across as biased.
Maybe some of that is from genuine concern of not wanting the virus underestimated. I don’t think that is very necessary though, people have seen what it is capable of, what they need instead is clear data that provides a proper understanding of the danger of infection. Myself I am also very cautious until that information is available. Data which somehow misleads though will be used later to mislead again, by the same people or by others, but in the opposite direction.
Covid-19 spreads like the flu. It’s estimated that there were about 35.5 million flu infections in the 2018-2019 flu season. The new studies are finding that Covid-19 exposure is 40-55 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. If these new studies are correct, then yes the death rate of Covid-19 is similar to the flu.
Evidence that flue dosnt overrun hospitals should be enough to determine that CV19 death rate is higher than the flue. I am hopeful that the new studies of high spread numbers is right. That would put us much further down the path towards this virus running it coarse.
With new diseases, there is usually a spike in the number of deaths initially as those most vulnerable die off quickly. Hospitals even in New York are no longer overrun and the mayor there says there is no need for the hospital ship anymore.
“Hospitals even in New York are no longer overrun and the mayor there says there is no need for the hospital ship anymore.”
New Yorkers have not been piled on top of each other in offices, bars, gyms and on subways for well over an incubation period.
It’s been a month. You can’t compare this to annual flu numbers.
Covid-19 has been in the States since January. Generally with a new disease there is an initial spike in the death rate as those most vulnerable succumb. If the new studies are correct, it puts the infection rate in a similar ballpark to the 2018 flu season in a few weeks time. The number of daily infections and deaths should drop rapidly. This has nothing to do with social distancing, but having had the virus run through a large percentage of the populous.
That x axis is time. Do you understand how to read a graph?
The number of deaths in NYC from covid19 are already 3 times higher than the typical flu season. And that’s in 1 month. 0.17% of the entire population has died. So even if 25% of NYC has been infected that puts the death rate at .68%. It could be lower in California due to more sunshine but NYC is getting killed.
“The new studies are finding that Covid-19 exposure is 40-55 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. “
Studies? That was ONE study for ONE locale. And that particular claim is controversial among epis.
A little knowledge…
Normally during the flu season 8% of the population comes down with it. Latest study out of NY today put it at 14% for Covid exposure. It is NY so maybe that explains the higher rate than California
Let me guess, all the “studies” you’ve read state the opposite. Classic argument of majority to minority, doesn’t make it true.
Nice, you put an argument into my mouth and then shoot it down. Really impressive skillz.
The study showing 50-85x more infection rate has apparently been retracted. That doesn’t mean infections aren’t 50x. It just means we don’t have information. It wasn’t overly surprising to see it retracted as it had some issues. With only 98% accuracy, you’d expect 0-60 errors, so with 50/3000 positive, the correct number would be 0 to 110. The conclusions you might draw from 0 are very different than you would draw at 110. Thus, the study doesn’t allow us to draw any conclusions.
In addition, if I correctly remember the Chris Martenson podcast on the subject, the actual anti-bodies test they were using originated from China and has been found by numerous other testing facilities to have specificity and sensitivity ratings of no better than ~90%.
My view is similar to this one more or less
We don’t have any trustworthy number on IFR, hopefully studies in Iceland will give a better idea. The virus is not flu though, or if it has same IFR the difference will be that it will infect a lot more of the population than flu does.
I hope the severity of it is less than made out sometimes, I think so, but that won’t change that it is an unpleasant and lethal virus that will be circulating for quite a while. My attention now is more on strength of immunity, persistence, and new strains, as well as trying to decipher laboratory techniques for their accuracy. I’m thankful that I am able to isolate indefinitely at choice, I’m not even sure what reality would satisfy my returning to more public settings…the advantage of being at ease with reclusion.
Well there are physical deaths and then there are virtual deaths (getting fired). Here’s an interesting story on an “undertaker” for companies. A lot of companies and employees are going to lose their jobs because of this idiocy. How many will become homeless? How many will wind up committing suicide?
The ‘Undertaker Of Silicon Valley’ Stays Busy As Startups Lay Off Thousands
April 20, 2020
Are you honestly comparing physical death to getting fired?
In America, a man is only truly alive if he’s making debt payments.
For some it could be. Still don’t understand the focus on CV19 deaths, Currently, they are still way below 1019 flu deaths.
Losing your job is not the same as dying you big baby
Angel and Venture funded startups overpaying for space, assets and workers; along with the destructive effect the firms’ exposure to idle “assets” have had by artificially making all manners of banksters, lawyers, brokers, landlords etc. artificially important, has been progressively destroying California startup competitiveness for decades by now.
For startups as fundamentally non dependent on hard, expensive industrial capital as software ones, lower cost of ancillary resources is always good. Without exception. Cheaper rent for space and living quarters, no need to “report to” idiots who “made money from their portfolio”, being less of a honeypot for ambulance chasers mindlessly babbling about “IP”….. It’s all good, in every way, for those sufficiently competent to actually create some value.
Not one former startup employee will have to sell his laptop on account of no longer being hireable for enough money to keep it. None of their knowledge nor skills will disappear. And their code is backed up. Just as is the case in the shale oil industry, the people creating value will be fine. Mostly finer. All the screaming comes from the leeches who have been granted increasingly limitless access to leech off of those valuable people, by financialization and money printing.
From a startup POV, the day you get 1000 SQft of quality space in Palo Alto for $100/month, is a good day. Ditto when the last “IP” babbling ambulance chaser, “exit strategy” bumbling Fed welfare queen and “made money from my home” landlord get sufficiently hungry to have no choice but to find something more useful to do with their pathetic little lives than prey on their betters.
Dear God.
Sorry, god’s not answering your call on this one Ted.
God always answers…but its not always in the way that we anticipate or hope for. He also may have issues with us not answering His call…when He called. Let the chips fall where they should fall.