For 27 consecutive days the Seven-Day Average Case Total in the U.S. Set a New Record.
Local officials in states with surging coronavirus cases issued dire warnings Sunday about the spread of infections, blaming outbreaks in their communities on early reopenings and saying the virus was rapidly outpacing containment efforts.
“We don’t have room to experiment, we don’t have room for incrementalism when we’re seeing these kinds of numbers,” said Judge Lina Hidalgo (D), the top elected official in Harris County, Tex., which encompasses the sprawling Houston metro area. “Nor should we wait for all the hospital beds to fill and all these people to die before we take drastic action.”
Significant Developments
- The rolling seven-day average for daily new cases in the United States reached a record high for the 27th day in a row, climbing to 48,640 on Sunday, according to The Washington Post’s tracking. Coronavirus-related hospitalizations rose to their highest levels to date in Arizona and Nevada.
- Twelve states reported new highs in their seven-day case averages, with West Virginia, Tennessee and Montana experiencing the biggest percentage change from their past records. West Virginia also set a record number of daily cases, with 130.
- The University of Washington reported that at least 121 students have tested positive for the virus and that 112 of them lived in fraternity houses near the Seattle campus. The university’s medical school has erected a pop-up testing site near the school’s Greek Row.
- Coronavirus-related hospitalizations in California’s Los Angeles County have increased by 32 percent in three weeks as the number of daily cases trends upward. The full state has reported a record seven-day average of cases for 19 straight days.
Florida and Texas Report Record Case Numbers
NPR reports Florida and Texas Report Record Case Numbers
Both Florida and Texas reported their biggest daily rise in new confirmed cases over the past few days, with Florida reporting 11,443 new resident cases on Saturday and another 9,999 on Sunday. Texas reported a record 8,258 new cases on Saturday followed by 3,449 on Sunday. California reported 5,410 new cases on Sunday and Arizona reported 3,536 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday.
“I will tell you, a month ago one in 10 people were testing positive. Today, it’s one in four,” Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner told CBS.”
The number of people who are getting sick and going to the hospitals has exponentially increased. The number of people in our ICU beds has exponentially increased. In fact, if we don’t get our hands around this virus quickly, in about two weeks our hospital system could be in serious, serious trouble.”
At least two counties in South Texas say they have hospitals already at full capacity.
Democratic Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego told ABC News that the state may have opened up too quickly, and criticized the federal government’s response to the virus and the lack of testing across the state. The Arizona Republic reported that in some cases, people have had to wait in line for 13 hours to be tested.
Trump’s Repeat Lie of the Day
Dear President Trump repeating ridiculous lies does not make them true.
Facts
- The positive test rate has soared
- Hospitals are hitting capacity.
Repeating lies will not help Trump get re-elected.
Mish
Anecdotally, my Fiance has been working the front line this week, doing swab tests. She has been “tickling the brains” (shoving the swab far, far up the nose) of about 300 people in an 8 hour shift each day. That’s about a person swabbed every minute and a half. If a few errors are made in that kind of volume, I guess it wouldn’t be surprising, but I doubt many errors are being made. They are very, very careful with the paperwork.
It also tells you that even when there is a long line, the line should move moderately quickly. In some cases they swab an entire carload as a whole family may get tested together. In other cases there is a single person in a car. On average, if there are two people per car, that means a car is processed every 3 minutes, or about twenty cars an hour. If there are 50 cars ahead of you, you might have a couple hour wait, but you will get processed. Please be patient, and have some appreciation for the staff that is working hard to see that everyone gets tested as fast as possible.
Covid suspends the learning process at colleges and universities. In addition, makes it less effective. You can always find help with homework on https://mypaperdone.com/
We really need for people to be better educated about this virus and it’s dangers. While it can be fatal, dying is not the primary risk from this virus. The primary risk is the damage this virus can do that will possibly effect you the rest of your life.
People need to learn that this is not the flu. This is primarily a blood disease that destroys cells throughout the body. A person with relatively mild symptoms may end up with permanent organ or brain damage. People need to understand the need to wear masks, and to avoid being around other people as much as is practical. Stop listening to people who have a political agenda, and instead listen to your doctor.
The result of being wrong on this subject could very well be a lifetime of regret.
New record for number of cases as the US smashes 60k. Death are rising as well, now, with 890 today following 993 yesterday. That’s the highest death toll since early June.
Yep. It appears there may be a spike in deaths that will follow the expected path upward after hospitalizations, despite insistence by some that was not going to happen. Still a little early to be certain.
Since more testing is detecting more mild cases, the apparent death rate will fall. Also, if we are doing a better job of protecting long term care facilities, and I think we are, that will also reduce the deaths. A third factor is that, with more experience in treating Covid19, care quality is improving, and that will also reduce mortality. Total deaths per day will no doubt continue to rise with cases, but should continue to fall as a percentage of cases. I expect to see in stay at about 1-1.5% of confirmed cases, so 60,000 cases a day should ultimately lead to 600-900 deaths a day.
Takes as long as a month’s lag for fatalities to reflect increased Covid cases. For the moment you can watch and worry.
For all those “but but wait, deaths will follow cases”..here ends the conditional probability lesson
For some reason the graph not showing up??
The covidiots continue to be in denial. Trend lines at the individual state level tell a different story. Not surprisingly NY, NJ, CT are all down significantly. Surprise, surprise – Texas, Arizona and Florida are on an upward trajectory. I wonder why. Could it be because of clueless state governors?
I don’t know Mish, i’m sad to think you have been infected with TDS. It is a fact death rates are dropping. Please don’t let yourself be ruled by fear so much, it is really impacting the quality of this site.
The problem is younger people are also now getting sick and going to the ER with breathing problems and dying. That’s a fact. The largest percentage of new cases and deaths are in the age 21 to 39 range.
The trend for the US as a whole is dropping but that is because of the massive initial spike from NY, NJ, CT, CA etc. Look at the individual state level and it is a different story. Trend lines are up for those states experiencing an outbreak now.
This is a tragedy. People are dying and will continue to die. The death rate among the 21 to 39 age group is very low. The fact that some are dying indicates that a huge number have been infected. The news media would have you believe that the CFR of 5% is the average probability of dying. This is a big fat LIE. The IFR, which the CDC estimates at 0.26% is the number to use until the CDC makes a better estimate. CFR is deaths divided by total confirmed cases. Because testing is concentrated on people already screened to have severe symptoms, CFR is artificially high. More testing will lower CFR, but discover more infections. The vast majority of people that have had CV19 have not been screened.
Population of New York City – 8,399,000
COVID deaths in NYC – 22,672
The IFR is at LEAST 0.27%, even if you are sure every New Yorker has had it. |
Agree. The whole post bangs on about cases, cases, cases and completely ignores falling deaths and falling death rates everywhere.
Is it just me, or do I sense that Mish has completely changed tack recently from fearless independent thinker to mainstream me-too? Was it due to the fear of google, or the switch to this new location (thestreet.com) ?
The total number of cases matter less as time goes by. Globally cases are understated by a factor of 12 according to an MIT study of location data. The death rate and hospital capacity are what matter. The whole idea is to have capacity for the truly sick.
There are over 320000000 in this country and we are worried about 251 deaths!
132,000 deaths and rising rapidly
And 0 empathy by Trump for anyone who dies or is affected. That number will stay at zero forever.
Kids and school openings….
….At least 1,335 people have tested positive from child care facilities in Texas, the state’s Department of Health and Human Services reported Monday, citing figures from Friday.
Of those infected, 894 were staff members and 441 were children. The cases came from 883 child care facilities that are open in the state, DHHS said.
The new cases mark a significant increase from June 15, when there were 210 reported cases from 177 facilities — including 141 staff members and 69 children.
On May 15, Texas reported a total of 59 cases from 53 child care facilities. At that time, 36 staff members and 23 children were infected….
But hey, they’re just kids and the teachers signed up for this, right…
Just live with it.
My sons daycare had covid in december here in California. Literally every kid and adult was sick but it wasnt the flu. No one died. We take a battery of vitamins and I’m 100% sure my son was exposed covid. Some teachers were tested for everything but covid and everything was negative. The longer this goes on the more I think the first mutation of covid has been around since last summer in China. Harvard metadata revealed searches in china for flu like symptoms as far back as last august.
The Florida Department of Law Enforcement investigated the teen’s last two weeks in the medical examiner’s report, which Jones said shows her mother, Carole Brunton Davis, had taken her on June 10 to a church-sponsored event to intentionally expose her immunocompromised daughter, who had survived cancer at 2, to the potentially deadly coronavirus.
More than 100 mask-free children attended the event, and Davis gave her daughter azithromycin, an anti-bacterial drug with no known benefits for fighting COVID-19, after she developed headaches, sinus pressure and a cough, Jones reported.
Davis — whose Facebook page is awash in QAnon conspiracy theories, anti-vaccine and coronavirus misinformation and dubious legal theories — next put the girl on her grandfather’s oxygen machine after she “looked gray” on June 19.
Then she gave the girl hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug touted as a cure by President Donald Trump, despite evidence of deadly side effects, and Carsyn’s condition worsened.
Davis finally took her daughter to a hospital, where she was admitted to a pediatric intensive-care unit — but declined intubation until it was too late.
The hospital started plasma therapy on June 20 and 21, Jones reported, but Carsyn’s cardio-respiratory system was too seriously damaged and she died June 22.
“We are incredibly saddened by her passing at this young age, but are comforted that she is pain free,” Davis told the News-Press after her daughter’s death.
She told the newspaper her daughter was a patriotic Christian who was involved with Operation Christmas Child and organized Christmas card writing for Ten Thousand for the Troops.
I literally have no words. Once people get a dogma in their heads, they and their families suffer the consequences, I am at the same time, sad and angry.
Surely a case for a child neglect charge?
would this be the same BS story about teen covid parties???
The total ain’t gonna shrink!
Covid and the flu are apples and oranges because a flu vaccine exists, while a Covid one doesn’t.
And previous flu vaccines will make your response to Covid worse.
Read the “Great Reset” Report – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-great-reset-now-available-for-download/
A little perspective.
Plus remember that daily deaths nationally still trending down, back to March levels…
Correct. Read the “Great Reset” Report from Armstrong – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-great-reset-now-available-for-download/
Take out the New York deaths and see how that trend looks.
Like literally take out the entire point it is making? Good one. Make a different argument and then we’ll see how your previous argument looks, wtf?
Marg54’s response makes perfect sense. The trend line will absolutely be downward given that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut saw the brunt of the initial cases.
Well, you have trend, but also raw numbers matters. You are talking 30 deaths a day or something in some of the other States. You simply cannot justify crashing economic activity for that. Well, many are, but they shouldn’t!
To Marg54’s point the overall trend for the US is downward due to the high number of initial cases and deaths reported in the tri-state area (NY,NJ,CT). However, if you look at the individual state level (Texas, Florida, Arizona) the trend for both cases and deaths has been upward from mid June.
We spent trillions and have not saved our economy which is heading into lockdown 2. What if we had spent a mere 100 billion in January and February to beat the virus? Trump is responsible for this economic disaster. Ironic because he destroyed his own hotels and he’s bankrupt now. Many Countries beat the virus and have opened and won’t fully shut down again but instead will manage localized flare ups. Their economies can move forward and ours will not. there are many documented health impacts other than death. Do you care if you get permanent lung damage?
Bankruptcy is par for the course for Trump businesses. Nothing new here.
The virus is not contained anywhere in the world. People cannot and will not live in isolation forever. Best path is to get through it while maintaining hospitals near capacity. Anybody have a better plan that HAS AN END???
“The virus is not contained anywhere in the world.” — This is untrue. There are a number of places that have driven their daily case counts to zero. However, they are few and far between and do not represent the ‘norm’. It is also a bit disingenuous to argue about full containment when it is abundantly clear that control is within reach. You only have to look to Asia and Europe to see this.
“People cannot and will not live in isolation forever.” — This is also not a ‘real thing’. And again Europe and Asia are showing how to control the spread and inevitable flares while also opening their economies and allowing people to socialize and congregate.
“Best path is to get through it while maintaining hospitals near capacity.” — This is just a ridiculous plan. Why would you hold your medical system a small deviation away from failure when it’s been shown that other methodologies work that don’t do that?
“Anybody have a better plan that HAS AN END???” — Two things: (1) There may be no end to this and we may have to adjust to living with it and (2) as mentioned above, running your medical system close to failure seems like a poor decision if you wish to actually get to a productive ‘end’. As to (1) above, I base the possibility on the sporadic data that suggests that immunity/antibodies may be short-lived. This, as in many things under active investigation, may or may not be true.
I didn’t think so.
I live in Western Australia, yep we had better leadership and a better plan
Control does NOT have an end. It is police state forever.
My first response is that I see no additional signs of those things in Europe and even in areas of Asia (that weren’t police states to begin with – Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, etc.). The second response is that I see you ignored the possibility that this virus, and attendant changes in lifestyle to deal with it, may be with us permanently.
The fact that you moved the goal posts of your original post suggests you didn’t really want an answer, though…
You do NOT shut down the healthy people. Throughout history, the sick and vulnerable are isolated (ever hear of leper colonies). The death rate worldwide is around 0.003%. One does not shut down the economy, unless there are ulterior motives. Read the “Great Reset” Report – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-great-reset-now-available-for-download/
China keeps claiming to have it beat, yet they keep shutting down swathes of 10,000,000 people at a time.
I can’t believe there are still “just a flu” people out there.
The Wuhan Virus with 132K official deaths has already doubled the peak deaths of the flu in the US over the last 10 years (61K).
The US hit the “Not a flu” level 2 months ago.
Death rate world wide is around 0.003%. One does not shut down the economy, unless there are ulterior motives. Read the “Great Reset” Report from Armstrong – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-great-reset-now-available-for-download/
The numbers reported reflect a death rate of 0.00841%. Since the CDC has reported that 10 times the number of people have contracted Covid, versus the number tested, the actual death rate is 0.000841%. Since this is 2.8 times greater than the worldwide death rate of 0.003%, I was totally expecting your headline to be, “New Strain of Covid 3x deadlier. You are truly a useful idiot.
I hope your readers will at least read the “Great Reset” Report from Armstrong – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-great-reset-now-available-for-download/.
The facts are the number of Covid cases have increased with more testing (dah), while the number of deaths continue to stair-step downward, decreasing the death rate. Instead of showing the folks the facts, the nut jobs are constantly scaring the people to shut down the economy again, while also distracting the people with manufactured racial tensions. Why?
This entire Covid-19 crash has been orchestrated to destroy the carbon-based economy and rebuild it in the image of green socialist. The cabal of academics and billionaires have been planning this shut down response to Covid because they couldn’t sell the gloBull warming lie, and they do NOT believe in cycles. Instead, they religiously believe temperatures and population will rise forever, which has NEVER happened in the history of the world – but hey, we are dealing with people that think they are God’s that can alter the cycles of the universe.
I see the next trend in CV reaction from the deniers…”who cares”, “it’s irrelevant”, “move on”, “we’ll have to live with it”.
It is a truism, “well have to live with it”, because we are, even today we are living with it. But as long as it remains at classically epidemic levels as in TX, FL CA, AZ (and soon others), and people and leaders ignore basic infection control measures we will be working with a dangerously crippled economy. There is a difference between an economy with 4K cases a day and 40K cases a day. Stumbling from outbreak to outbreak is a guarantee of great damage. I’m really not sure what “it’s irrelevant” and “who cares” statements have in a real world.
But back to the new denier messaging of the week–this is after the week or so duration of “it’s only young adults who’ll never end up in the hospital” and the slightly longer duration “it’s too much testing”.
Trump doesn’t realize that the old perennial “It’ll just go away” is past it’s sell-by date. Sad!
Maybe the headline would be more accurate as “12 States Hit New Record Highs in Symptomatic Covid Cases” ?
In Spain they released a background serology study
which puts asymptomatic cases around 30%. Those are people who won’t be tested normallly. If you change that figure to lower, you will see a rise in people being pcr tested for symptoms, and higher rate of hospitalisation presumably.
It could also just be as stated obviously, more infections.
The point is, and the Spanish government still only recognises @ 3% asymptomatic, that there will be a continuing background of infection ready to increase once conditions allow that. It also means that this talk of local outbreaks is misguided , because they act in some countries as if the virus is controlled apart from that, like they are stepping in to save the day. Not quite, instead they are stepping in once infection levels become obvious. That they don’t recognise and address the background reality of the circumstance is a fail – anywhere where conditions change that allow resurgence, that will happen, whether it is gatherings or weather or whatever.
This is just to highlight how data gets interpreted to create a certain message. It is a comparison by Mathew Bennett on twitter of the lancet version above and the Spanish official release:
“In the Lancet version, the one in three asymptomatic case figure is highlighted repeatedly.
In the Spanish version sent out by Health Ministry, they focus on 2.5% of asymptomatic people testing positive.
The same figures, but a very different message.
–
The question would be: if “ONE IN EVERY THREE CASES is asymptomatic” is important enough so as to use the word 21 times in the Lancet version, and highlight the fact repeatedly in the text, why is it not mentioned at all in the Spanish version?
–
The only mentions of “three” or “third” in the version sent out in Spanish by the Health Ministry are “three rounds” or “third round” of the study. “
……..
Even in local press like ElMundo which is to the right, the article there had zero about % asymptomatic from serology background testing, focusing only on the couple % tested who were asymptomatic (and I presume pcr not serology, have yet to read the full report).
The implications are much depending how presented, and via say the ElMundo article there is simply no analysis or even insinuation of large background asymptomatic.
As always, ‘Follow the money’.
Slightly off topic, another weekend where Chicago metro area and surrounding suburbs hospitals ERs were overwhelmed with cases on acute lead poisoning.
Yup, puts the whole BLM movement into a different context.
Every day I read a story about one of Trump’s zombies who ignored the risks and downplayed covid19. Then they are on their deathbeds. Darwinism at work but then they don’t believe in evolution either.
WHO CARES??
When we saw all those protesters out in force nationwide we knew this would have be the result, then we saw millions of young people flocking to the beaches on Memorial Day and since, we see news stories about illegal gatherings where nobody is distancing or wearing masks. There was that party in MI with thousands of people crowded onto a sandbar for a huge party for the Fourth on the news last night. There were stories of shootings at an illegal “private party” in a closed bar with hundreds of people. So, I have read so much that Covid is going to change us forever and just laughed, people are social creatures, they need human contact and social interaction as much as they need food. The can “go hungry” for a while, but then at some point they will start to binge.
We are about to see what the US might have looked like had we taken the GOP course of just doing nothing, shrug and claim it is no worse than the common cold. If science wishes to retain the faith of the population it better bust ass and get treatments or vaccines fast.
I have read for at least a decade that science was on the brink of making a vaccine that give us immunity not just to this or that virus but to all virus. This is one of the problems for our civilization, science over promises for years and decades without delivering, and then again we have delivered breakthroughs that turned out to be disasters of horrifying consequences, fission energy, thalidomide, DDT, DES, for some older people like me, I see computers and cell phones as major breakthroughs that can enhance life, if not abused, but when I see what they have done to our culture I wonder if we would not have been better off had those items remained the tools of the universities, governments, and military, by keeping the price so high that only they could afford them. Just wait till the consequences of 5G become apparent.
Then you have science study and spend a lot of money in the process to answer questions only to later find out they were wrong, but far worse than that they will study and be right but change their advice based on social factors rather than real science such as they have with facemask recomendations. Science is either hard evidence and right, or it is wrong, you cannot flip flop about it’s findings based upon public sentiment and there are other areas where science has been rigged and changed it’s collective mind, MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING for example, they even changed the name in an “ad campaign” to CLIMATE CHANGE in order to get more of the scientific illiterats on board. When science decides they can exaggerate consequences in order to move the wider population and borderline demand quasi police powers to override such minor inconveniences as economics or personal rights in order to champion their pet theories because they just know they are right even when they are using KNOWN rigged and fake data in their hypotheses then they do not deserve the respect that real SCIENCE should be getting.
Science and research are great things, but I’m afraid sometimes they get hijacked by an overzealous researcher or someone skews the results because of who they are funded by. It’s still “follow the money” as far as I’m concerned. You would hate to think that anyone would either politicize or skew research in the name of money, but I’m sure it’s happened and continues to happen. Eggs are bad for you, eggs are good for you. Don’t eat butter switch to margarine, now margarine is whipped oil, maybe butter wasn’t so bad. Drinking coffee is bad, etc. etc. I was discussing with a close family member in the medical field a few years back that cholesterol had went from a 240 level down to 200 and they are thinking of lowering it 180 and I asked what the reasoning was? She stated the latest results from research were showing the 180 level might be healthier, I asked who was funding the research and she replied that it was being funded by one of the large cholesterol medical manufacturers. I asked if maybe there was some inherent conflict of interest with a company funding the research that was promoting lowering the cholesterol level so that they could sell more cholesterol medicine. They didn’t think so, but color me skeptical.
Since Mish moved to theStreet.com, we get all this sensationalist nonsense. Bring back the old Mish!
Looks like case and deaths are undercounted.
Interesting, thanks.
Thanks for posting data
Just another model. Can’t trust models after their record of abject failures.
It is partly based on location and proximity data.
What do you trust Ken ?
Models start with assumptions and selection of which data to use in the model. Bias is inherent in any such choices. Models can only be trusted in the physical sciences where all data is physical data and there are no assumptions. eg modelling how a steel frame will behave under stress is entirely free of bias. Not so with any model in the social sciences.
It was a totally false, outrageously biased such model from Imperial College which fanned the covid-19 worry into a panic.
Models are based on assumptions. We know lack of testing was a fact early on. Who needs to fan flames when hundreds of thousands are dead from covid. Covid deaths are likely undercounted
Covid or no Covid….it doesn t really matter anymore, does it ? Look at stocks in Asia and Europe this morning, all up massively, with the US likely to follow suit… Why still bother to talk about C all day and all night long on every fckn news channel? It is totally IRRELEVANT, that much is obvious !
Asia and Europe are in much better shape than the US is.
It doesn’t matter until one day it suddenly does matter. Markets are on a sugar high that is not sustainable. The Fed and other central banks can only goose the market for so long. Sooner or later the law of unintended consequences will rear its ugly head.
Bingo – massive disconnect between prices and fundamentals
test positive? do you ck the box on your health policy/life insurance /loan/lease etc. that you tested positive? Do you inform your friends/neighbors/co-workers/sex partner(s)?
florida’s off the charts,10,000 a day! With all those old folks,what happens when they start droppin like flies? Medicaid like virtually everything in DC is completely insolvent which means they’ll have to start burnin the bodies en masse like Auchwitz!
Some of Trump’s text aren’t necessarily wrong. Some or dumb.
I don’t think we have stable herd immunity to the cold viruses. Some of them are classified as Corona. Still waiting to an explanation why hopes are high for effective vaccination and stable herd immunity, then.
This is not to say this won’t be attained. Only, that the optimism and assumptions aren’t well corroborated.
And, if stable herd immunity isn’t attained, then we will all have to adjust to a new normal.
All that said, I’m aware of anecdotal evidence that herd immunity may hold for several weeks (as only 1-2 months passed). There are communities that recovered from high density of infection. Reportedly, they don’t experience massive re-infection yet.
It’s not herd immunity if it lasts only 2 months. Seroconversion has been shown to drop off after as little as 8 weeks after recovery (13% symptomatic and 40% asymptomatic recovered have no antibodies). This does not mean they don’t have T-Cells which fight new infections, or that everybody is just as susceptible as before.
3-4 months is what the immunoglobulin tests show. The question imo isnt getting over covid. The questions are the intermediate to long term effects.
Most of Trumps text messages are flat out lies.
It’s just flu, and it will disappear magically in April! BTW it’s a hoax! It’s all beautifully under control now。
Hate to say it but we will still be talking Covid-19 infection rates this time next year. It has always been about flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the US healthcare system and protecting the at risk population. I strongly believe in quarantines, social distancing and wearing masks in public. This is a highly contagious virus with a fatality rate significantly higher than the flu despite what our president and his loyal band of covidiots would have us believe.
What if there is little we can do to change the infection trajectory?
Viruses don’t care about strong beliefs and don’t reward effort.
We have already shown we can influence the trajectory. Only covidiots believe otherwise.
Containment always was the less expensive solution. Probably still is, unless the miracle everyone is counting on happens.
Hasn’t been contained anywhere.
its been contained everywhere. what you’re seeing are moping up operations. Seriously
So what are they saying, no more protests, or lockdown again, or obligatory masks or what ?
From
The whole state of Texas has five thousand or so extra to the previous trend hospitalised.
Other countries this is happening also, uptrends in cases, not dramatic in pandemic terms but not good either, after relaxing restrictions. In Spain more than half of people think they will be back in lockdown before too long.
At some point people are going to have to decide again how to play off higher infection rate vs. higher restrictions (beyond basic common sense approach to protecting from virus).
It is a well established fact that protesters do not spread Covid 19. Looters gain lifetime immunity.
Whether he’s gone this year or in 2024, I’m going to miss Trump a little. It’s a fun game to predict how he will apply a smiley face to every bit of news. Anything can be bigly and tremendous if you use your imagination!
I suppose it’s all part of 4D chess, where good news is good and bad news is also good.
I just wonder what all these people who they say have “derangement” are going to do when they find out they are still deranged afterwards.
I for one will not miss him. He is dumbing down America with his legion of covidiots.
America was limit lock dumb long before Trump. He’s just a symptom.
I disagree. The Trumpster takes us to a whole new level of stupidity.
So people all of a sudden become “smart” when he leaves office? No way.
No. He normalized people giving into their worst instincts, behaving like bullies in a school yard. That, instead of doing the hard work to build a community and a nation together. It’s far easier to destroy than build and it will take a long time to repair the damage, if ever.
The abject stupidity of most of our leaders at all levels on the Covid issue in this country is amazing. The dumb folks among us fail to understand what happens when the hospitals get overwhelmed which is coming very soon. New York and Italy is about to be replayed again in a bunch of states. I was planning on voting for Trump last January, he won’t be able to get elected dog catcher by Nov.
Careful now. You are talking primarily about Trump supporters – largely non college educated white males. Collectively you could call them covidiot.
There was a time that there were no hospitals, so don’t get too concerned.
You can live without a health care system.
What happens when hospitals are overwhelmed is that people who have traffic accidents, or need acute cardiac care, or cancer interventions, are at increased probability of death. Unfortunately, this outcome has already occurred due to the lock-downs. It will be happening on an ongoing basis, since scores of hospitals have been closed down, unable financially to survive the lock-downs.
Any idea what the average life expectancy was back in the days of no hospitals? High enough to be very concerned.
I don’t think you totally understand the real reason for hospital having financial issues. One main reason is because elective surgeries where canceled. That means people who could pay we’re not going to the hospitals. You still have people going to the hospital but it is the ones who cannot pay and the hospitals take a loss on everyone of these non paying customers. Elective surgery is open again which pays the bills, but you have to test negative as the doctor will not operate otherwise. Now you have paying customers wanting to have elective surgery but are testing positiv. Or many elective surgeries tend to be for things older people need like knee replacement or hip replacement. They are to worried
“covid” has nothing to do with it.
The purpose, the only purpose, of a central bank, is to rob people competent enough to create value, in order to hand the loot to utter idiots whose sole and only qualification is closeness along some measure to the regime the central bank is part of.
Every “leader” in America is an idiot by now. How could they not be? They obtained their position,every one of them, simply by being handed stolen loot by The Fed. None of them have the brains to earn any of it.
It’s not like “investing” in a shack sitting there decaying in the weather, creates any wealth. Nor requires any competence at all. Nor anything. All it requires, is privileged access to Fed facilitated credit, compared to those who have to work for a living instead of living off stolen goods.
Ditto “making money” from a “stock market” similarly pumped up by the central bank. Nor “making money” from “stock options” similarly pumped up. Nor “making money” getting a percentage of transfer of any such pumped up “asset”. Nor “making money” taking a cut from having kangaroo courts arbitrarily deem and find and feel about who “has the right” to said pumped up stuff. Nor “making money” from lobbying on behalf of any of the above welfare recipients, in order to have government make it even easier to “make money” by all of the above. Nor “making money” selling condos, Bentleys, Jimmy Choos, “organic fairtrade” coffee nor startup stocks ready to be pumped up to any of the idiots who “made money” in any such way.
None, zero percent, of any of that, creates any value. None, zero percent, of any of it, requires any competence. Nor intelligence. Nor anything of value. In fact, since people tend to work harder at something they genuinely believe in than something they realize is just nonsense: The dumber you are, more “money” you are likely “make” in an economy like that. Which is to say, an economy like ours.
And, as time goes by, money buys influence and power. Hence, why the “leaders” of current America, are not guys who built airplanes from scratch. Nor cars. Nor anything. But rather complete halfwits who “made money” in “real estate” (no doubt without building any of it..) or from their “portfolio”, or from some kangaroo court arbitrarily robbing someone more competent than them.
Covid has, again, nothing whatsoever to do with it. Covid’s just another in an unbroken line of nothing but failures. No different from 737 Max’ falling down and never working. Nor every “war” undertaken over the pst 50+ years. Nor from no US company being able to compete against something as hopeless as competition from a communist country. Just failure upon failure upon failure upon failure. And nothing but. While retarded, useless, idle nothings are being handed the fruits of other, less obviously incompetent people’s labor, at an ever accelerating rate.
The Soviets followed a similar model to “ours” : Have The Party take everything, and redistribute it to those closest to it. The fact that they called a spade a spade, and the Party the Party, instead of childishly trying to obfuscate it by calling the exact same institutions a “central bank” and “markets”, have no bearing on anything whatsoever. The net effect is that all wealth, hence all power, is being handed to idiots by official dictat. Rather than to people with enough competence to earn any of it.
And, lo and behold, The Soviets weren’t really any more competent at dealing with stuff either. Things didn’t work, all they built was junk, cavemen kicked their asses etc. etc. While their “leaders” lived large while preening around the world flaunting how plain stupid they were. Just like is the case in America.
Well said
So Dow 10 million?
First dow will hit 401K. Then dow will head to 403B.
So anecdotally, two friends of a friend went to get tested, filled out the forms, waited in line, took too long so they left. Lo and behold 2 days later receive a letter saying they tested positive.
Another friend had a relative with a chronic condition go in for their annual checkup, no test for C19. Get a letter “you’ve tested positive”.
So lets see, 41,000 new cases…251 deaths??
Another covidiot. It has been well established that the fatality rate lags hospitalization rates by a couple of weeks. You will not be singing the same tune 10 days from now.
Established “fact”, eh? At the start of C19 ONLY the very sick and those in nursing homes (nearly 50% of deaths) got tested. So there they had the highest chance of death.
Today when a 24 year old goes for a test and gets a postive they have close to zero chance of death. So the increase in “confirmed cases” does not translate into more deaths later.
“Today…a 24 year old goes for a test…So the increase in “confirmed cases” does not translate into more deaths later.”
Maybe. It all depends on whether or not the unlucky minority who need medical treatment can get the help they need. If hospitalization rates climb above capacity then that could increase the death rate. This has always been the big problem with letting the pandemic run unchecked. We in the US may still get to find out firsthand what that looks like.
Flu is right down now
not sure about common colds. At this point anyone with symptoms but not tested is going to assume sarscov2, or should do, and will react to that as they feel fits best. I cannot give you more advice beyond the plethora of approaches already known of. If symptoms become more severe, especially respiratory, then better to ask for attention. The reason for that is that the virus acts in odd ways, the damage not always being fully evident and to a dangerous degree. Even if care units do not have remedy, they offer other valuable support.
I don’t know really though, people make their own choices on whether or when to seek attention.
Take care.
I will seek medical attention if I develop shortness of breath. So far that is not an issue and hopefully it will not come to that.
From what I understand, anyone living in proximity as symptoms start is most likely infected. It is very infectious. Equally they will be asymptomatic, equally it is still worth taking precautions for them unless you know they are infected, because it is possible they aren’t.
I suppose this would be a circumstance where tests would be useful, if they were easy and anonymous. It is possible your wife is asymptomatic and caught the virus first (assuming it is sarscov2), serology might show that and ease concerns. It is possible she hasn’t nor has had the virus, it is possible she has just caught it, serology and pcr would show that. So tests would allow people to organise better. Sometimes tests are wrong though :/ , so they will not make the concern just vanish either. When you add all that up really it is as good just to isolate those with symptoms and assume others aren’t infected (but that they are towards others as if they were also).
I will probably have people protest this, but various charts show severe outcomes decreasing even where cases have remained high or increased, even after long delay to take into account onsets etc. One I was just looking at was for Stockholm. No point guessing but severe outcomes are generally low except for the various groups known to be much more susceptible.
I appreciate your thoughts. Thankfully, I do not have a bad situation so far. I am isolating, mask wearing, and watching symptoms. I am taking some appropriate medical steps to the extent I can do those on my own. If I reach a point where I feel testing would be a useful tool then I will use it, but at present I do not feel a positive test result would alter my course of action. I am already assuming that it could be COVID.
New cases have been “soaring” for 27 days. Deaths have not. How’s that jibe with your 10 day window?
I think you need to check your facts. The first significant upturn in weekly Covid cases occurred the week of June 18th and exploded upwards the week of June 25th. The next 7 to 10 days will see an upturn in fatality rates.
Just like in Georgia, right? https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Cases trending up since the beginning of May. Deaths trending down since the beginning of May. Sorry, guess again!
Case numbers aren’t the useful thing at this point. What matters is hospitalization rate, and deaths. Deaths won’t necessarily follow case numbers, but will follow hospitalizations. If hospitalizations are trending up fast in Texas, we can expect deaths to follow that.
Deaths will decrease versus hospitalizations because the treatment options have gotten better since the outbreak based on experience. i.e. Don’t intubate patients as that kills someone with C19 pneumonia, hydrochloroquine (sorry, it works probably, recent research indicates) and other treatments.
Also the pool of the most vulnerable has shrunk from the inception so fewer of the cases are the most vulnerable.
This is just simple conditonal probability.
That is why cases are down, and deaths/hospitalization is down.
Treatment options have indeed improved. Other improvements include the use of anti-oxidents, anti-inflammatories (steroids), and anti-coagulants. They still intubate people, albeit after trying pronation, but they have learned proper pressures, etc. The percentage of people recovering after being on ventilators has improved from 12% to over 70%.
Nevertheless, those improvements weren’t from yesterday to today. They have happened gradually, with most of them happening months ago. Thus, as hospitalizations increase, deaths will probably follow. I’m not saying that the death rate will be as high as in March, just that it will follow hospitalizations.
I recently came down with something that feels like it has the potential to be a nasty summer cold. I have no idea how I caught it since my exposure to others has been limited. I have used an elevator or two and I have been in a few supply houses where others were not wearing masks. Don’t know if I am willing to wait many hours in line to get tested, especially since they will not do anything except tell me to self-isolate, and with examples like yours I would not be able to trust the test results. I am also not sure I want to deal with becoming an officially documented “positive” case if that happens. I am waiting to see if it gets worse or better on its own.
Those on this blog who have suggested alarmists are waiting in line to get tested when they don’t really need it should do a reality check. People waiting in long lines either need to be tested because their employment requires it, their proximity to high risk individuals requires it, or else they are sick. No one else would wait in line 13 hours.
Good luck with your illness. Hopefully it will turn out the be nothing but a cold. If you need a test, though, get one. Testing in some areas may take many hours, but not necessarily in all areas. They set up a testing station across from my business a month ago. Cars lined up for a mile or so, curling around the high school. When the testing started, the line moved quickly, though, and an hour or two later it was gone.
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So anecdotally, two friends of a friend went to get tested, filled out the forms, waited in line, took too long so they left. Lo and behold 2 days later receive a letter saying they tested positive.
Another friend had a relative with a chronic condition go in for their annual checkup, no test for C19. Get a letter “you’ve tested positive”.
“
It ain’t The Age of Incompetence for nothing.
But hey, I’m sure plenty of illiterate idiots “invested” millions The Fed stole for them from more competent people, into the “biotech” “sector”, so we should all be happy. And, no doubt, the “leaders” creating these processes and procedures, no doubt “made money of their home”, so how can we not be fine?
And anyway, if we’re not, there are likely still a few half competents with some breadcrumbs left for The Fed to steal and hand to the retards “owning” and running it all. So that they can plan and deem and find and decide and otherwise preen around they’re useful for something other than target practice.
You know what, your “anecdote” has been floating around on twitter for a week or so, passed from person to person like a sighting of Fatima. Without names, dates and a copy of the letter, it’s all just invention.
If we follow Trump’s advice, you may well be right…we will all catch it. It ain’t going away by magic like he promised.