Please consider the Results of SurveyUSA Coronavirus News Poll.
- 9% of Working Americans (14 Million) So Far Have Been Laid Off As Result of Coronavirus; 1 in 4 Workers Have Had Their Hours Reduced;
- 2% Have Been Fired; 20% Have Postponed a Business Trip; Shock Waves Just Now Beginning to Ripple Through Once-Roaring US Economy:
- Early markers on the road from recession to depression as the Coronavirus threatens to stop the world from spinning on its axis show that 1 in 4 working Americans have had their hours reduced as a result of COVID-19, according to SurveyUSA's latest time-series tracking poll conducted 03/18/20 and 03/19/20.
- Approximately 160 million Americans were employed in the robust Trump economy 2 months ago. If 26% have had their hours reduced, that translates to 41 million Americans who this week will take home less money than last, twice as many as SurveyUSA found in an identical poll 1 week ago. Time-series tracking graphs available here.
- 9% of working Americans, or 14 million of your friends and neighbors, will take home no paycheck this week, because they were laid off, up from 1% in an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago. Time-series tracking graphs available here.
- Unlike those laid-off workers who have some hope of being recalled once the worst of the virus has past, 2% of Americans say they have lost their jobs altogether as a result of the virus, up from 1% last week.
- Of working Americans, 26% are working from home either some days or every day, up from 17% last week. A majority, 56%, no longer go to their place of employment, which means they are not spending money on gasoline or transit tokens.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults nationwide 03/18/20 through 03/19/20. Of the adults, approximately 60% were, before the virus, employed full-time or part-time outside of the home and were asked the layoff and reduced-hours questions. Approximately half of the interviews for this survey were completed before the Big 3 Detroit automakers announced they were shutting down their Michigan assembly lines. For most Americans, events continue to unfold faster than a human mind is able to process the consequences.
Grim Survey of Reduced Hours
Current Unemployment Stats
Data from latest BLS Jobs Report.
If we assume the SurveyUSA numbers are accurate and will not get worse, we can arrive at some U3 and U6 unemployment estimates.
Baseline Unemployment Estimate (U3)
- Unemployed: 5.787 million + 14 million = 19.787 million unemployed
- Civilian Labor Force: 164.546 million (unchanged)
- Unemployment Rate: 19.787 / 164.546 = 12.0%
That puts my off the top of the head 15.0% estimate a few days in the ballpark.
Underemployment Estimate (U6)
- Employed: 158.759 million.
- 26% have hours reduced = 41.277 million
- Part Time for Economic Reasons: 4.318 million + 41.277 million = 45.595 million underemployed
- 45.595 million underemployed + 19.787 million unemployed = 65.382 million
- Civilian Labor Force: 164.546 million (unchanged)
- U6 Unemployment Rate: 65.382 / 164.546 = 39.7%
Wow, that's not a recession. A depression is the only word.
Note that economists coined a new word "recession" after the 1929 crash and stopped using the word depression assuming it would never happen again.
Prior to 1929 every economic slowdown was called a depression. So if you give credit to the Fed for halting depressions, they haven't. Ity's just a matter of semantics.
Depression is a very fitting word if those numbers are even close to what's going to happen.
Meanwhile, It's no wonder the Fed Still Struggles to Get a Grip on the Bond Market and there is a struggled "Dash to Cash".
Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame the Fed
The Fed is struggling mightily to alleviate the mess it is largely responsible for.
I previously commented a Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame the Fed
The Fed blew three economic bubbles in succession. A deflationary bust has started. They blew bubbles trying to prevent "deflation" defined as falling consumer prices.
BIS Deflation Study
The BIS did a historical study and found routine price deflation was not any problem at all.
“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.
For a discussion of the study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?
Deflation is not really about prices. It's about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.
Blowing bubbles in absurd attempts to arrest "price deflation" is crazy. The bigger the bubbles the bigger the resultant "asset bubble deflation". Falling consumer prices do not have severe negative repercussions. Asset bubble deflations are another matter.
Assessing the Blame
Central banks are not responsible for the coronavirus. But they are responsible for blowing economic bubbles prone to crash.
The equities bubbles before the coronavirus hit were the largest on record.
The irony in this madness is the US will be printing the most currency and have the biggest budget deficits as a result. Yet central banks can't seem to get enough dollars. In that aspect, the dollar ought to be sinking.
But given the US 10-year Treasury yield at 1.126% is among the highest in the world, why not exchange everything one can for dollars earning positive yield.
This is all such circular madness, it's hard to say when or how it ends.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock