Green Light Within Days
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Sunday he has “not heard of any red flags” in considering the vaccine but would defer to career scientists to determine if the vaccine was safe and effective.
“Within 24 hours of the FDA green lighting with authorization, we’ll ship to all of the states and territories,” Mr. Azar said on “Fox News Sunday.” “And within hours, they can be vaccinating.”
The government is expecting to have multiple vaccines authorized and close to 40 million doses able to be released by the end of this year, Mr. Azar said. “And then hundreds of millions of doses from multiple manufacturers as we go into next year. It’s really a historic achievement—it is the light at the end of the tunnel.”
In a separate interview on ABC’s “This Week,” Mr. Azar said that “by the second quarter of next year, we’ll have enough vaccine for every American that wants it.”
Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser to the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed initiative, said it’s still likely to be months before most Americans can receive a vaccine.
The most susceptible people could receive a vaccine in January and February, he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” but the wider population will wait longer. “For our lives to start getting back to normal, we’re talking about April or May,” Dr. Slaoui said. Americans need to continue to wear masks, keep their distance from others and wash their hands, he added.
Vaccine Confidence Rises to 60%
PEW reports Intent to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine Rises to 60%
Yet, 21% of U.S. adults do not intend to get vaccinated and are “pretty certain” more information will not change their mind.
The toll of the pandemic is starkly illustrated by the 54% of Americans who say they know someone personally who has been hospitalized or died due to the coronavirus. Among Black Americans, 71% know someone who has been hospitalized or died because of COVID-19.
Republicans remain less likely than Democrats to see outbreak as major threat to public health. Overall, 84% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the U.S. population as a whole. The partisan gap on this measure remains about as wide as at any point during the outbreak and stands in contrast to the large shares of both Republicans (83%) and Democrats (86%) who say the outbreak is a major threat to the U.S. economy.
They will give the vaccine first to health care workers and those high at risk.
What happens if there is a problem with the vaccine?
It’s not that I believe the likelihood is high, it’s the ramifications if it happens. This was rushed wasn’t it?
Mish
First off, does anyone really think the FDA won’t grant EUA for these vaccines? Politically that is impossible, so regardless of what data is presented they will okay the vaccines. Typical of ‘we need to do something government’ at work. I don’t know why they are even bothering to meet to give their rubber stamp.
Secondly, I agree with some others above about the concerns of using an mRNA vaccine. My biggest concern is the vaccine triggering an autoimmune reaction. Our own cells will be making the spike protein with this vaccine and our immune system works like ants to sugar. Once it sees something that’s not supposed to be there, what stops the immune system from targeting our own cells (since that’s the source)? This could be a public health disaster causing lifelong side effects. Who’s the genius who thinks giving the entire country this new technology right out of the gate is a good idea? I don’t want my kids to have autoimmune problems for the rest of their lives. For older people, it may make sense to take the risk since the cost/benefit analysis is different if you are over 80. Generally I discourage my patients from rushing into the newest medical breakthroughs and prefer to let other doctors ‘experiment’ with their patients first. The FDA has been slow with the uptake on multiple medication adverse effects. A desperate person who has tried many things it may make sense to go to the newest agent, but not as a general rule. In my mind this is just typical government in action, following up one mistake with an even bigger mistake.
For the record, I generally am up to date with all my vaccines and encourage my kids and family to get their vaccines (except not for this one right now). I’ve known multiple people who have had (or still have) covid, including people who have been hospitalized and two people who have died from it, so I know it’s real. And I voted for the lady from Illinois with the doctorate this presidential election.
I’m not saying don’t get it, rather everyone should do their own risk/benefit analysis. Good luck trying to get data that is accurate.
What does the Pfizer trial tell us?
You have 1 chance in 233 of having a noticeable case of Covid if you don’t take the vaccine.
How many landed up in the hospitable? Don’t know.
How many died? Don’t know.
Did the vaccine prevent any deaths? Don’t know.
Did the vaccine prevent infections? Don’t know.
Imagine we give the vaccine to half the population of the USA, but not the other half. Among the unvaccinated 86 have a noticeable bout of Covid, in the other half 8 do.
That would mean that the vaccine is still 90% effective, at the bargain price of only 165 million vaccinations requiring two days of sick leave for the booster shot.
[Numbers need context]
Keep in mind that that is 1/233 over a very short time period, probably a month. In my state, currently 0.1% of the population gets infected every day. Thus, it would take 5 days for 1/200 of the population to get infected.
Of course. The period matters: Numbers require context.
But so does 90% effective. Effective for what? Is it an appropriate measure?
Where you live the people are apparently getting cases a lot faster than in the group studied by Pfizer, but I’m willing to bet you are reporting positive PCR tests and not discernible cases of Covid. At a Cycle Threshold beyond 34, only 3% of PCR positives will have any replication competent virions (as in, can be cultured), let alone whether they have Covid or are infectious. The WHO recommends another 1000 doublings (to 45) and many test outfits are actually going beyond 40. Competent science heavy weights recommend stopping at max 30 (otherwise the result is “scientifically and diagnostically meaningless”).
Monsanto produced science for 20 years so support the notion that you could chug down a cup of glyphosate. Tobacco produced science for 50 years telling us that tobacco was not linked to addiction or cancer. People have to be very wary when claims are made about food, chemicals, drugs.
I think that it is foolish to rush the approval of an mRNA vaccine, which both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are of this type. This type of vaccine has never been used before and injects coding sequences into the body. Other types of vaccines including inactivated coronavirus vaccines and carrier virus vaccines (using other types of viruses such as a cold virus) to produce the antibody response have been used very often and are much less likely to have unintended side effects and consequences. Nursing home residents are the only ones at risk enough (and with limited future lifetimes) to justify taking an mRNA vaccine.
The FDA review cannot take into account any long term side effects since the trials have only been underway for a few months.
Chicago Tribune main section today has a quarter page color print ad by Archdiocese Of Chicago Catholic Cemeteries for internment options of mausoleums, columbariums, glass front cremation niches and cremation gardens.
They aren’t going to be caught with their pants down like is 1918-1919 when the had paupers grave sections with only a number on a hockey puck sized stone marker for each body out in the Back 40 at Resurrection Cemetery.
Relevant numbers coming out of that Pfizer trial:
99.57% of the unvaccinated people did not become infected.
99.96% of the vaccinated people did not become infected.
Absolute risk reduction = 99.96% – 99.57% = 0.39%
Usage risk:
No interaction studies have been performed.
No testing on the very old (?)
No testing on pregnant women. (?)
Animal reproductive toxicity studies have not been completed.
It is unknown whether /vaccine/ is excreted in human milk.
It is unknown whether /vaccine/ has an impact on fertility.
In the absence of compatibility studies, this medicinal product must not be mixed with other medicinal products.
Long term auto-immune risk
Metadata on Ivermectin early treatment 90% efficacy:
Gee, take a useful medicine in the unlikely event you need it, with very little risk.
Or take a vaccine regardless of need, with a risk-benefit a bit tough to nail down.
If you’re young & healthy, it’s a pretty easy choice, yes….. unless, of course, you have no choice.
kimo
Little risk. Actually, no risk.
0.43% infected down to 0.04% infected. That is a reduction in infection risk of 90.1% (0.39/0.43). Seems a substantial reduction of already minimal risk.
Mortality risk at any age without co-morbidities is very low. More older people are dying because co-morbidities go up with age. Unfortunately, everyone is paying the price for the inability of much of the population to stop stuffing their pie holes. Fatties, get a clue. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
I remember getting that bad ass flu of 1957, I was sicker than a dog. Funny thing, the USA did not shutdown. Things went on as normal. That flu was much worse than what we are experiencing now. How things change.
Thanks for your story of the good ol’ days?
Did you have to walk uphill in a snowstorm to school, too?
How old are you anyway?
This one is pretty likely to kill you. Don’t be dumb.
How likely?
What should he do?
Or at least a decent risk of making your last days on earth much less pleasant.
Thank you for sharing. That 1957 flu was supposed to be a mutation of the 1918 influenza. I recall being quite sick back then, while attending elementary school. Ached all over. I’m still not sure I had it.
Keep up on viable treatments, as you mull over the decision for a vaccine. By way of wishful thinking, if you conveniently avoid both Covid and the vaccine, that would be ideal. My Dad is look towards 101 years old. I support what he wants to do.
kimo
Anti tax movement is strong. There’s a huge distrust of science and authority. It will be hard. Ironic that people will take hydroxychloroquine and snake oil but not a vaccine
It all depends on what DiaperDon says…
As long as the people I care about get it, the morons can go die. In the rain.
Unless you are an idiot one would be at least slightly skeptical of the early vaccines with the track record of US institutions up to this point with Covid. The early vaccines are all new technology not yet used on large populations of humans. Since I have known personally several people that have been badly damaged by vaccines, two permanantly, I am cautious. And the HCQ snipe lands you in the partisan hack crowd in my book. There were early studies showing HCQ Lupus patients not getting Covid in both China and Italy. With better data and not the crap misinterpreted studies bandied about by the partisan press we now know it is not very effective if at all similar to Remdesivir but studies are still being done. Per the data HCQ is safer than aspirin to take and definately safer than Remdesivir so no downside to take unless damn near dead in an ICU. There are vitamin and supplement regimens that have been PROVEN to reduce the severity of Covid the best being Vitamin D. I am patiently awaiting the Covid t-cell test’s emergency autho by the FDA to confirm I had it already since the antibody tests are mostly junk. If I’ve had Covid already as I am about 95% confident I have I have no plans to take a vaccine needlessly, if not I will after the bulk of everyone else has and I know the safest ones to take.
As far as I’m concern I’m more likely to die from Covid than the vaccine, so I’ll have the vaccine as soon as I can. If I was younger I wouldn’t want to catch it and give it to friends or family so I’d still have the vaccine. The alternative is to carry on with the new normal for who knows how long.
Requires a Pdf reader, unbiased white paper on covid19
It’s unlikely that any of the people here will be able to get a vaccine before year end.
Push this poll to January when we have had multiple weeks of a million or more new cases a week and 15,000 die a week and the medical system is broken– ask how many then.
Total covid deaths in US by April 1, WITH rapid vaccine rollout, estimated between 488 and 580K.
Yessir. I’m 98th in line out of a theoretical 100 average residents of my state. Where are you?
For y’all’s consideration,,,,
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/12/95-vaccine-efficacy-not-so-fast/
Have to admit the possible long term side effects are a concern for me. Given that I contracted a very mild case back in March I would have to say I am leaning towards taking a wait and see approach despite the fact I am over 65.
With you there… I’m gonna call it chivalrously letting other people go first out of concern for their safety. It’s almost certainly fine though.
What the hell, Thalidomide was all the rage back in the 60’s.
I never take a flu shot. My aunt is in her late 70’s and got COVID. She had the pain and fatigue, but didn’t require hospitalization. I spend so little time in crowds that I’ll wear a mask and social distance. The odds are in my favor that I don’t get COVID. If I do get COVID, I will have symptoms, be able to quarantine, and recover without going to the hospital. I like my odds better than those of the average person who frequents bars and large social gatherings. So I don’t plan on taking the vaccine.
You didn’t mention if your Aunt used any therapies, but going forward the most successful is here: https://ivmmeta.com/
Mish, do you think the x-CEO of Pfizer throwing shade on the vaccine has cashed out of his stock and heavily positioned with put options?
Health care always starts with the individual. If you think the typical American diet is healthy, than you need to do a lot of research. Eating a healthy diet, taking supplements, getting enough exercise, these are the things you need to do FIRST. For gods sake, its YOUR health, not the governments health.
Bottom line: They both say what we call “masks” are ineffective in protecting the wearer and “may” be protective of others from the wearer. The latter is not established one way or another. In either case, they are ineffective if not worn properly with a proper seal. (In practice, you won’t see many people wearing a mask that’s properly sealed. Bandanas and beards.)
More detail:
3M makes it clear they distinguish between “masks” and “respirators”. Respirators come in various types and include all “N95 respirators”. There are no N95 “masks” when using 3M’s nomenclature.
“Masks” (in 3M-ese) do not provide virus protection to the wearer. They “may”, emphasis “may”, provide protection to others from the wearer. No protection has been established.
If you’re not using an “N95 respirator”, then you’re showing you care. That’s it. 3M’s N95 respirators are marked as such and come in various types optimized or modified for particular uses. E.g. Certain “medical respirators” are coated to stop liquid (e.g. blood, spit) from getting through. In effect, you can’t buy N95 respirators right now.
Chain link fence: I found from another manufacturers site back in the spring that N95 and KN95 masks are tested for whether they stop things of a particular size. That size is much bigger than your typical virus. Why use that size to validate masks? Above that size, the size of the particle matters. Think chain link fence and BeeBees or basketballs. Below that size, particles move around fast and randomly so a particle is, in effect, a solid cloud. The cloud can’t get through the filter because the cloud is too big. The test/validation size is chosen because it’s the worst-case, hardest-to-filter size.
The microscopic world is truly weird.
What, and miss out on my government subsidized mobility scooter and disability payments? I’m on to your communist plot!
I am sorry to interrupt the conversation but I am totally confused and at a loss regrading the Covid19 vaccine(s).
Do I take it? Which one do I take? Do I take two vaccines? Do I get a booster later on? Does the vaccine (whichever one it is and how many I take ) cover me for the rest of my life?? Please advise!
numike, read this first,
numike, try this link
If only there were multiple professionals skilled in just this area that you could consult…. check your phone book under General Practitioner.
You should be asking your doctor. Or just take them all…
That is a joke in case anyone missed it.
I have an idea for an SF book/movie. The magic “vaccine” might turn out to carry more than just Covid virus remnants.
An alien race has been watching the Earth for centuries and has finally decided that they want to take over the planet. They want to use as little violence and destruction as possible, as humans will be used as food or slaves.
The aliens have powers of the mind that will allow them to control and direct humans as they please but first, they will need to introduce a parasite that will migrate to the humans brains where it will make humans docile and able to be controlled by the aliens.
But how do they best introduce this parasite into the humans? The parasite is not airborne, so seeding the atmosphere will not work.
They decide the best approach would be to give everyone a shot containing the parasite via a fake vaccine. But how to get everyone to accept the need to get the parasite shot? A “vaccine” seems to be the best approach. But humans will only accept the fake vaccine in the numbers needed if they fear that they will die or become very sick if they don’t take the shot.
The aliens decide to approach the problem in two steps. Step 1 will be to introduce a virus, similar to the Earth’s flu that will be more deadly to the most sickly & weakest members of the human race, for they are of little use anyway to the aliens. However, their steadily increasing deaths will serve to increase real fear and even create emotional panic as the affected numbers escalate. Once people are fearful enough, step 2 will be to administer the mind control parasite via the vaccine, which will be developed much faster than normal.
The initial point of focus will be to use health officials to ramp up fear as their pandemic models predict very large and ever growing death counts. Once the general public embraces this fear, hysteria and panic will ensue and the human public will call on their politicians to DO SOMETHING to save/protect them.
Messaging that the virus is in the air, on everyday items and is significantly infectious will be promoted. The aliens will prime the media that mask wearing, social distancing and hand washing will help reduce contagion. The increasing wearing of protective items such as masks, gloves, face shields and even full hazmat suits, promoted and reinforced daily will give a false sense of security to some but with the assist of the global media, will help to ramp-up the fear levels permeating the planet.
Politicians would most likely respond to calls to do something in the only way they can – by attempting to shut down commerce and physical public interactions, which for the aliens plans, will have the added benefit of paralyzing world economies, making people even more fearful, despondent and even desperate.
The idea that a vaccine will be a solution, making the virus ineffective, will be seeded in the planet’s media.
As the months progress, the virus will rage on. It will become the number one media story. While some will think that they have finally stopped the virus in its tracks, it will resurface again and again, with the aliens’ help, if necessary, to maintain the drumbeat for a “vaccine” solution that will actually deliver the alien control parasite to them. The daily increasing counts of infections and deaths by the media will help further bolster fear & panic.
A vaccine often takes 10-20 years to develop. But this task will be completed in no more than one year as the aliens secretly implant the knowledge necessary to significantly shorten the usual development time in selected researchers doing the vaccine development.
In 6-9 months with the help of the aliens, humans will “perfect” their vaccine. What will actually be happening though is that the aliens will have manipulated the virus so that it is now less dangerous, making the vaccine testing look as if it is working as intended.
In perhaps 10-14 months, the vaccine will be ready for use. A crash manufacturing effort will be undertaken to make billions of doses.
This is when the alien parasite will be introduced into the distribution chain. After a few months, the human race will be under alien control once the aliens broadcast a global domination code to turn on the parasite.
Those who refused to take the vaccine will be chased down and have it forcibly administered as unvaccinated humans (w/o the parasite) will not radiate a certain color on a particular wavelength that can be seen with alien technology. Resistance will be futile.
The book/movie ends with the fleet of alien ships landing all over the planet as humans meekly wave greetings to their future enslavers.
A sci-fi flick ripped straight from the headlines! Popcorn, please!
Too bad it relies on a base as solid as most Hollywood techno apocalypse stories.
Food and slaves? Uh, huh. If you’re looking for food, you don’t look for the top predator. If you’re looking for slaves, you’re seriously backward, technologically.
And, that’s if you’re on the same size-scale as humans. If, as is more likely, you’re the size of solar systems or microbes, … well. Food, maybe. After all, microbes are the top of the food chain. They eat humans.
Alternate premise: Aliens are the Earth’s loving parents. They introduce viruses to weed out beings that are a drag on the Earth’s natural growth.
How about life energy in place of food? Isn’t that what was going on in the Matrix films? How about aliens from a different dimension, not like humans at all?
But I can go with the alternate premise you offer also. Although I would think that we need a more severe virus to REALLY clean the genome base. It’s not just the physically weak that need weeding but the mentally weak also.
That would definitely include everyone wearing a mask outdoors and even better, those who turn their masked face aside when passed by an unmasked person, because of course, those extra few inches could certainly make them miss virus fragments floating in the airstream. [lol]
A worthy sequel to Qanon’s seminal “Pedo Pizza Kitchen.”
No alien race finds us worthy of spending all that time and fuel and generations upon generations of their own just to come to Earth. Get over this nonsense, stat.
🙂 I dunno. Scale up what we humans do with our kids and …
I’ll get you first on their list.
I read somewhere that these vaccines only provide protection for 90 days or so. Plus there are very unpleasant side effects.
Protection against what? The max 90 days is dubious information.
A paper published by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group said the duration of ‘natural or vaccine induced immunity is not yet fully understood. The coronavirus vaccine may give people immunity from the disease for 90 days, the government’s scientific advisers have said.
Because……it’s only been 90 days of follow-up. It’s a so far, so good scenario.
Nobody yet knows how long the immunity will last. Every week we will know more.
No, if you take the vaccine, you will become healthier and wealthier. See my story below.
Where? Or maybe “people are saying”?
If the vaccine is say 75% effective, what happens to the 25% of old folk then walking around getting infected ?
Clearly, because continuous series of vaccination seems to be the requirement, and because immunity is not full, the objective must be to build up a kind of semi herd immunity with endless vaccination. This because the virus will be present worldwide for quite a while. Otherwise it would only be the most vulnerable offered.
The vaccine has not been evaluated to stop infection or transmission, only that an infection will produce less severe symptoms on average. Mortality and hospitalization were also not end points evaluated.
It takes time to gather data…….there is no evidence to lend credence to the idea that vaccinated individuals CAN transmit the disease either ….and we have a long history of success with other vaccines on preventing transmission. And with preventing clinically significant symptoms……on a whole laundry list of viruses.
So it’s reasonable to make some hopeful assumptions….I think.
In any case, those are questions that will be answered in fairly short order.
I guess we will find out eventually how good or not these vaccines are.
First, the data is already in, and the vaccines look like they’re better than 90% effective,
Second, there is enough follow-up now to know the vaccines last at least 3 months.
Your what-if scenario has no real validity based on what we know…..and even if COVID vaccines had to be taken, say yearly…..so what? The benefits are off-the-charts.
To a degree, for example we do not have immunity to common colds but repeated exposure does build up our ability to react to the next strain, so the symptoms are limited. A problem with sarscov2 is that it is not like an ordinary coronavirus, it attacks in various ways where limited symptoms might not be good enough, for example it is also known to impact the immune system itself. Part of survival from viral infection is not just generation of antibodies, it is an entire sequence of reactions, and given how destructive sarscov2 is able to be there is little solace in the idea that each lesser infection is able to cause a variety of damage. Frankly virus, vaccine, and witnessed wider management give me the creeps.
@ Eddie 90% is probably optimistic, but even so you are balancing how many in a hundred (let us say elderly) would catch the virus if they were taking full precaution vs. what happens to the ten in a hundred who do catch it because they think they are immune. 90 days immunity is four vaccinations a year not one, and that is all not counting the emergence of resistant strains, nor side effects.
Either way, this is not going to get decided here but in real world. There are those who will feel being vaccinated is worthwhile, and others not. It is a shame we are not given very clear information on this, probably because it is not available. At the least there should be guidelines to what the masterplan is. Is the idea to add protection to the vulnerable, to try to approach herd immunity, to make it so there is no excuse to not lift restrictions etc. etc. That information is necessary so that people can decide in an informed way whether to accept a vaccine, and so that responsibility for whatever is being forwarded as solution can be attributed. I don’t hear it being discussed at an informed broader level anywhere obvious. All we have is “vaccines will be available and they are the solution”.
“To a degree, for example we do not have immunity to common colds but repeated exposure does build up our ability to react to the next strain”
We do have immunity to colds… to the strains that we’ve already had.
And yes, in many cases that exposure helps us fight off the next strain we encounter.
We think, “cold virus.” In reality, there are hundreds of cold viruses out there, about 1/3 coronaviruses and 2/3 rhinoviruses. So they’re not even all the same family of viruses. You can’t expect complete immunity to all just because you’ve had one of them.
But there is a reason (more than 1 actually) that people get less colds as they get older.
Immunity isn’t always (usually is not) binary.
It’s not like you’re immune one day, completely vulnerable the next.
The immune system acts by identifying the structure of objects and trying to match them. The closer a structure is to one it’s already seen in the past, the quicker it comes up with a match to any new invader. It doesn’t need to “remember” an exact match. And if the memory gets a little fuzzy over the years, that’s still better than starting from scratch.
We don’t know whether the magic number is 90 days or 3 years, but every time your body sees a (any) coronavirus or is vaccinated against one, it’s going to be a little better at fighting off any of them and the loss of that ability is gradual.
A tangent, but this is why measles is so interesting… it has some mechanism to “erase” the immune system’s memory of other viruses. So if you look at mortality from measles for years after having had it, you’ll see that there is an unexpectedly high number of deaths that aren’t directly related to the measles.
First part of the reply above was for you ajc1970
Immune systems vary dramatically in different people so you are correct. I would not assume anything from the effectiveness of any vaccine yet. There have been mutation studies but they are not conclusive from what I have seen. We need probably a years data once vaccines are out to have any idea how well they work in the general population. Fall/winter 2021 should get us an idea. Just look at peak infections and you will see multiple peaks. It appears winter is worse (at least so far). Likely similar to influenza susceptibility but less than a year is a poor data set, especially with the masking and distancing implemented.
“What happens if there is a problem with the vaccine?”
Increased dosage and introduction of obligatory vaccination.
I am concerned about the whole refrigeration with dry ice thing for Pfizer’s vaccine and its contribution to global warming with the CO2. They should load it up with Mercury instead to preserve it.
…And if they had already done that and still needed dry ice ? Anyway I hear the CO2 is extracted from the dirtiest exhausts they could find, so if you see someone with a cylinder and pump standing behind an old diesel at start up you’ll know what they are about.
Around here, CO2 is extracted from ethanol manufacturing. If they didn’t extract the CO2, it would be emitted anyway.
Ok, put down the spray paint and paper bag. That’s enough for today.
Not out of the realm. For example they find only eq. 50% immunity and ongoing surges of infection so they decide to vaccinate more frequently and make it obligatory so herd immunity is reached.
Obviously it seems sinister and conspiratorial to some, maybe it is?
As of today, local authorities are saying the first round will only be for care-givers taking care of COVID patients and/or nursing home occupants and staff. They expect it to start within a couple of weeks now.
Even physicians who aren’t taking care of COVID patients in the hospital will have to wait until February to get the vaccine. That would also include dentists, I presume.
Damn right I’ll get it the first day I can…..but that means no immunity until probably March.
We still have to get through a very difficult winter, and the virus doesn’t care if we’re tired, or bored, or in denial.
March is optimistic. May or June imo. And then we have to wait until next fall to see how effective the herd immunity is because as we now know, it is worse in fall/winter /spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
The only people that could benefit would be the older people, they have the highest death rate. Young people you might as well forget it. I mean why take the chance?
Because young people are now ending up in the ICU as well. I checked my local ICU and half of people in the ICU are below 40. 25% below 30. It turns out the strain that was going through the country in the spring is not the same as the one that was in Italy and New York. That more lethal strain is now ravaging the country which is why ICUs are filling up, with people of all adult ages.
Your stats don’t jibe with any official ones
With 40% of the US adult population obese, not just overweight, we are a highly unhealthy population, even our young people…so yes, plenty of our young sick that our now populating ICUs ( as we have done a better job of protecting the very old) should take the vaccine. But the smaller percentage of heathy US adults have little need to risk a vaccine based upon new technology. I hope it works, as this new technology may be found effective to combat a multitude of other diseases in the future, but it is just entering Stage IV trials with the latest approval – long-term impact on a global population.
By the way, you must not realize that at a baseline, America is not as healthy at younger ages compared to previous generations. This is why the vaccine is necessary. 50% of people younger than 40 have a pre-existing condition of some sort.
Or we could just let the sickly and weak die off. It’s called weeding the herd to quote Dennis Miller.
Who is Dennis Miller?
Can we just start saying it instead of alluding to it as a “preexisting condition?”
If you’re fat, get the damn shot, no matter your age.
Figure out your BMI and if it’s over 30, get the shot, and then start eating better.
That’s roughly 40% of the USA… so worried about COVID, but killing themselves anyway. “Wear a mask to protect me.” Yeah… if you really care, the burden to protect yourself starts with you. Step away from the baked goods, ice cream and sugary drinks.
More like how many will be forced to take it if their employers, like mine, end up requiring it. I don’t mind taking it but ill be honest….i’d rather see others do it first and see what happens to them. Of course many side effects could be years down the road unfort. Employers can easily force many to take it that otherwise say they won’t. Now i’m reading crap that union employees could be exempt which is a large swath of govt workers. That is the biggest bunch of BS i’ve heard in awhile and very infuriating. I guess my 100k a year neighbor that’s a union maitenance guy for the govt that can’t even make it to the mailbox without taking an oxygen tank and spends more time at home than at work wins again.
The chances of side effects “down the road” are infinitesimally small.
That sort of scenario usually is even hard to prove when it possibly does happen.
Like with the flu shot……somebody gets a flu shot and then they develop something like GBS (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) sometime later. Well, GBS is an idiopathic condition that occurs in tiny numbers anyway in the population, vaccinated or not.
So you have the question….did the flu shot cause it? Impossible to prove it didn’t and the incidence is never high enough to even make statistical inferences that it might have….yet it get logged as a “possible” side effect. See how that works?
So you can take a vaccination that has a 90% plus chance of giving you immunity to a nasty killer disease that might leave you gasping for you last breath….or you can worry about some possible side effect, although the odds are so low as to approach the zero bound.
Side effects to vaccinations are almost always (as in 99.9%)……(a) a sore injection site or (b) a day or so of low grade fever and a little malaise (feeling shitty) while your body mounts it’s antibody response to the challenge.
That’s it. Don’t go down some bullshit anti-vax rabbit hole.
You are obviously not abreast of what happened to the people vaccinated against the swine flu. Nor have you processed the disasters with Bill Gates vaccine initiatives in India (deaths of children) and Africa (polio epidemic) and the Philippines (ADE), where the sponsored organizations are not welcome anymore. ADE (Anti-body dependent enhancement) was why they stopped the original Sars vaccine development. Time is too short to exclude possible deleterious effects. There’s already a major concern about possible antibody reaction to syncytin proteins, essential for the formation of the placenta in mammals (the sars-cov-2 spike protein contains syncytin-homologous proteins).
What happened to people who got vaccinated for swine flu is that they didn’t get swine flu.
Some infinitesimally small number of people who were vaccinated got GBS…but people who weren’t vaccinated…who caught swine flu..got it at higher rates.
On “polio epidemics”…the problem is oral fecal spread of live polio virus in the oral vaccine…to unvaccinated children. The solution is to vaccinate all the children, or to use a different vaccine.
The Philippines case with Dengvaxia was/is a valid problem….but with Dengue fever being a huge problem, it still makes sense to take it…but not if you’ve never been exposed…..but in those who have it cuts morbidity and mortality way, way down.
And….nobody really has a count of how many kids died. 600 is a number claimed…but it’s almost certainly a much smaller number than that.
Imho that problem should have shown up in the clinical trials……maybe it even did, but was ignored by the manufacturer.
In India I assume you’re talking about the HPV vaccine….the one I gave all my own kids…
Eight kids died (of 24,000 vaccinated in the trial)…no proof has even been shown of a link between the the vaccine and the deaths…..in that case.
In every case you mentioned there is still a clear indication for most people to take the vaccines you’e trying to malign….and the benefits so far outweigh the risks as to make your arguments very weak indeed.
I’m not maligning them. I’m noting that the governments in those countries have barred the ‘benefactor’ organizations.
What also happened with the swine flu was that people who weren’t vaccinated against it also didn’t get it. The Swine Flu was a no show. When there were some side effects, and no virus, the vaccination program was abandoned. I had the shot, and no side effects, FWIW.
As for the original SARS, a similar thing happened. The virus ceased to be a problem. The SARS vaccine under development appeared to be safe and effective through Phase 2, but SARS was no longer a problem, so Phase 3 trials were never conducted.
I almost died from the swine flu vaccine and have severe reactions to most vaccines (other than Tetanus). Most people will not have serious side-effects but jumping up to get a rushed vaccine would not be my first choice even if I was not restricted from viral vaccines. I worked as a researcher in forensic toxicology for 20 years and niw 12 years in molecular bio (run viral testing for Cov2 and other organisms).
I would warn people to not get medical advice from internet comments but check research if possible. If you have a basic understanding of biology/chem you should be able to at least understand the summaries. If you know any biochem, cell phys, or pharmacology, don’t take others advice, just study.
Please remind others that you are a complete outlier. I can understand why an extremely allergic individual would and should be worried.
1.3 individuals per MILLION vaccinated have a life threatening allergic reaction to a vaccine…..just to look at the big picture. That is to ALL vaccines overall…….nothing to do with these new vaccines……but that’s what trials are for….and trials have been done. The data shows a VERY SLIGHT possibility of greater allergic responses above what was noted in the placebo group.
I never tell anybody what to do….nothing I say here is medical advice. But I do try to debunk the major BS that gets floated here and elsewhere about the danger of taking this vaccine….and of vaccines in general.
The entire anti-vax movement arose over FAKED RESEARCH, done in the UK, by a physician who was trying to blackmail pharmaceutical companies into giving him payola. I’m sure you probably know that, but it’s important to mention it.
The guy lost his license to practice, but the damage has been done.
As a result of the damage done by one man, the MMR vaccine got a bad rap and kids will die of measles, mumps, and rubella…..and no doubt children will be born blind and retarded….for no good reason at all.
I’m a dentist, not a virologist, not even an M.D. But all of us trained professionals….people like yourself included, have an obligation to present the truth to people who don’t have the training we have.
Considering the risk, this 65 year old dentist who risks exposure to POSSIBLE asymptomatc COVID carriers every working day of my life (and who is not allergic and never had a problem with any vaccine) would be glad to get the vaccine today if I could……but it looks like it’s going to be a couple of months.
Meanwhile, thousands are getting vaccinated in the UK, and soon we will have a better picture of ANY possible bad outcomes.
You will be able to obtain fake ‘official’ documents on the internet that will state that you have gotten vaccinated.
Doubtful