The idea of a Brexit reversal surfaced over the weekend. Silly Remoaners, let it go and be happy. 
Wishful Thinking
Will Hutton is hardly alone in campaigning to rejoin the EU by putting his focus and ire on the Conservative Party, but in doing so, he must gloss over the fact that it was a Tory government that lead the campaign to ‘Remain’ in 2016, and that many Conservatives never wanted to leave; forced into supporting independence because of the people’s instruction. And if the UK were to ever vote in support of applying for membership again, parochial Tory-bashing won’t suffice. Such a campaign would have to address, head-on, the EU’s failings and inadequacies. It would also have to address what the EU has become since 2016, and most crucially, what it hopes to become in the future. But the pro-EU movement in Britain has always been more focused on what the EU isn’t, rather than what it is. It has shied away from grand constitutional debates about the long-term direction of the EU, and also refrained from criticizing Brussels too much, no doubt concerned about feeding the skepticism all humans share of large, distant, unaccountable institutions determining how we live our lives. And that strategy not to engage more frankly with the EU and its grand ambitions was probably their biggest mistake prior to 2016. People like Will Hutton failed to pressure their British and European colleagues in Brussels to improve transparency, democracy and accountability. They failed to shift the direction the EU was taking towards one UK voters could more readily accept. And in doing so, the seeds of Brexit were sown. ….
if you want to convince most people, you are going to have to move beyond simple Conservative and eurosceptic bashing. You are going to have to talk about the wart-covered EU elephant in the corner of the room. That may not be what readers of the Guardian or Observer are likely to click on, but it is what they will have to wrestle with if they are ever to succeed in taking Britain back into the EU.
A Few Questions
Would the EU want the UK back? If so, on what basis? How?
The UK cannot undo Brexit by a vote. The EU would have to agree. Some countries in the EU might not want the UK back at all, and it would have to be unanimous.
But assume the EU magically displayed a green light. On what basis would the light be green?
The UK would not get the same deal as before. It would have to join the Eurozone Monetary Union (EMU). How would that vote go in the UK?
Consider Schengen and freedom of movement. The UK had an opt out on that. It won’t now. So how would that vote go in the UK?
What about the UK rebate?
For those in the US who have no idea what I am talking about, the UK rebate was a financial mechanism that reduced the United Kingdom’s contribution to the EU budget since 1985.
Does anyone think the EU will let the UK contribute less than other nations to the EU slush fund?
Six Brexit Reversal Referendum Questions
- Do you agree to abandon the British Pound for the Euro?
- Do you agree to turn over monetary policy to the ECB?
- Do you agree to pay your fair share into the EU budget slush fund?
- Do you agree to the EU’s freedom of movement clause and accept all EU immigrants?
- Do you agree to subjugate yourselves to the whims of the European Court of Justice?
- Do you agree to let the EU dictate 100% of your trade policies?
If the answer to any of those is no, the the EU will not let the UK back in the EU.
Some might think my questions are harshly worded. But my wording is mild compared to how the opposition would phrase things if there ever was a serious proposal to rejoin.
Two Locks and a Bonus Kicker
Brexit reversal won’t happen because It’s not just a matter holding a referendum to back in. The conditions for rejoining are not the same conditions the EU granted the UK when it first joined. And the EU might not want the UK back in even if the UK did agree to those terms.
Labour and even some Tory remoaners will piss and moan and blame everything that goes wrong on Brexit. But not even Labour would accept the conditions the EU would require to rejoin the club.
Big UK Economic Upgrade
Please note that the UK economy, blamed on Brexit, was much stronger than previously reported. On September 1, The Independent commented on the UK ‘Extraordinary’ GDP Upgrade.
Panmure Gordon chief economist Simon French called the revision “extraordinary” and said “the entire UK economic narrative – post pandemic – has just been revised away”.
The changes, which added almost 2 per cent to the size of Britain’s economy, mean the UK no longer has the worst growth record among G7 countries since 2019.
They also show Britain’s economy is likely outperforming Germany, Europe’s biggest economy.
The Great Escape
Escaping the EU nannycrats was a great decision. The EU stifles trade, thinking, and competitiveness. Every year global trade talks fail because of the EU.
France has a veto and uses it to save the family farm. It took decades for the EU to work out a simple trade agreement with Canada. Two small countries did not like some simple aspect and nearly delayed the deal forever.
Google, Microsoft, and Amazon would never form in the EU because the EU would bust them apart in the name of “competition” before they ever got going.
Look at Germany, more interested in protecting diesel, and cheating to do it, than lead any innovation in EVs. The EU lagged in phones, in EVs, and is 100 percent certain to lag in AI.
It takes unanimous opinion to do nearly anything in the EU, a fundamental flaw of both the EU and EMU.
And one interest rate surely does not fit the likes of the UK, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Spain, let alone all of the other countries on a forced, but time uncertain, path to join the EMU.
Why would the UK want to be on the hook to bail out bank failures in Italy, Greece, or for that matter Germany. Germany’s industrial production is imploding right now.
Brexit Was Not a Bad Decision and Did Not Fail
It’s important to understand that Brexit did not fail. Rather, the Tories failed at taking advantage of the opportunities of Brexit.
For discussion, please see my May 22, 2023 post Contrary to Popular Myth, Brexit Was Not a Bad Decision and Did Not Fail
OK Remoaners give it up. The decision has been made and no one in their right mind would agree to the conditions and risks necessary to get back in.
The EU needs a dumping ground for their illegals. UK is right across the water.
Robert (QSLV)
As Mish says, no chance we’ll ever rejoin.
Thankfully we won’t be liable for any of this:
link to briefingsforbritain.co.uk
Victor Orban might suspend election and stay in power until 2034.
The Hungarian econ is down. His popularity is down, b/c people were spoiled by the prolonged uptrend. He predicts that Hungary will flourish in the next
decade :
1) Hungary is friendly with both Russia and China. Hungary get energy from Russia.
2) Tens of millions Muslims invaded EU. Christian community will flood Hungary to escape Europe islamization. The looming crisis is an opportunity.
3) US & Europe wants this fascist out, the media attack him, pressure him to obey
their policies, but Orban doesn’t care. He intends to stay and lead Hungary to better days.
This kind of diatribe is fantasy fiction straight out of the Guardian comic.
I remember when Jamie Dimon went to London to warn his employees that if they voted the wrong way and Brexit passed, it could cost them their job. Never heard what the outcome was on that threat by Dimon.
Wonder no more…
link to bnnbloomberg.ca
“Global banks moved hundreds of billions of dollars of assets and thousands of jobs to the EU in order to retain access to clients there after Brexit severed many of the UK’s ties to the bloc.”
Weird because nothing in the article addresses whether anyone at JP Morgan lost their job. Comprehension is hard.
Well here you go, different story same results, can you comprehend that?
link to fnlondon.com
…for how long?
Don’t pretend to be obtuse.
London still has the most business although Paris is coming up. The high-margin business is still in London because the fiscality for financial teams that earn a lot, I mean a lot, is still prohibitive on the Continent.
link to ey.com
But I am rarely concerned about today or yesterday, it’s the morrow on my mind.
I don’t have a crystal ball but London has advantages hard to duplicate.
The UK doesn’t have French employment legislation, and the EU lacks the Anglo-Saxon culture and work ethic, so “coming up” is probably quite relative for a dysfunctional dive like Paris.
1kg gold is worth $60,000. One ton = $60 millions. Suppose London exports $96B
gold annually ==> 96,000/60 = 1,600 tons. Who buys 1,600 tons of gold.
US might have between 6,000 and 8,000 tons of gold, worth between : $360B and
$500B.
“might”… then again, it “might not”…
I must agree that there is no going back for the UK, although for Power & Control, the EU would happily take the UK back in their outstretched arms!
I would however, give a far greater chance of Hungary and/or Poland leaving the EU, before having any concern about what the UK will or won’t do…
Energy Needs, and Not Wants, will totally dictate what the direction will be for the EU. My money would bet, that they stay aligned with the West, get NG from the US, and Oil from a Russia/Saudi Mix and the U.S. sprinkled in if possible. Long term it doesn’t look good for them without Nuclear, thanks to Germany, but I digress…
In the end, people tend to vote with their wallets, or their beliefs in a particular cult.
It looks like the wallet-voting brigades are already on the march in EU member states, but the grip of the cult through institutions and media is still strong… but weakening.
Swapping people out doesn’t work unless they bring the skills you lost. UK has low unemployment but it’s deceptive. They need skilled immigrants. Many jobs simply can’t be filled. These immigrants also want welfare. UK is in a real quagmire. They can’t get enough immigrants for what they are losing and can’t get enough skilled immigrants.
The main skills the mass illegal immigrants bring is evasion of the law, which is not very difficult, given the lack of a proper effort and resources to stop them coming.
The skills shortage is very true, and I benefit from it due to the high barriers to entry to my profession. However, resistance to putting real wages up is still there.
Rates for people like me look nominally high, but in real terms they have fallen a lot over the decades. Hoping for some serious armtwisting leverage soon.
The London fix is big, but the UK doesn’t produce gold, they trade it. The BRICS plan to take over.
…but a lot of gold is held in London, despite superficial trading. Who trusts their gold to the custody of a BRICS nation?!
Scotland still produce energy. A harsh winter might devastate the Euro zone, give
a painful blow to the German industry, reversing their support to Ukraine.
Speaking of energy, DVN is down for the day, great day to buy back half my calls for 50% profit. Choo! Choo!
Don’t count on it.
Already done. Profits in the bank.
The link below says all you need to know about the future of the UK. Median age in 2023, 40.1. Total Fertility Rate 1.6. Blimey bloody hell!
link to worldometers.info
This is what happens when young people don’t see a future.
Or rather the cost of raising kids is through the roof.
So many things that were allowed when I was a kid are not legal now (no child seats, leaving kids home unattended or simply watched indirectly by neighbors etc). That’s driven up the price of having and raising kids which puts it out of reach for so many unless they are willing to do a bunch of illegal things.
It’s a consequence of socialism – the burden of high and growing tax and high and growing debt… there’s only so much the citizenry can be taxed before they revolt by not consuming, and even not working (as in China); there’s only so much debt that can be extended to kick the can down the road, making the problem of debt servicing and debt-driven interest-rate rises eat up the national budget; the inevitable outcome is cuts to public sector jobs and services, and replacing them with more efficient, market and demand-driven private sector ones, and the UK being outside the EU, can now do that. The only way you get demographics to change is to dramatically reduce the costs that parasitically feed off people and ramp up the natural price of things. Once prices correct downwards towards wages; or wages correct upwards towards prices, then young people will see a viable future ahead. Immigration has to be halted, because it does not fix the problem (incomers tend to revert to the mean of local behaviour), and creates new problems (of identity and integration) that didn’t need to exist. All debt-bubble “developed” economies are heading towards a pass-the-parcel correction that just keeps getting worse with each pass, until it finally reaches that Wily. E. Coyote, off the cliff moment…
Countries in the west are best off pairing up with developing countries in a kind of neocoloniliism where the developing country gets managed development, and developed country gets a return on investment to pay down its national debt.
The debt has to be reduced to bring bond yields and interest rates down and growth rates up to something more stable, but alas the world is already deep in the throes of a mothercorrection, which looks set to extend for a couple of years, and inflict some real economic carnage with political implications for major countries and the world.
The UE is a sinking ship. Their economy has stagnated for close to a decade now. Half the countries have crippling euro debt. The southern countries can’t compete on a level playing field with the north. They’re being over run by immigrants who hate the western world. They have policies that cripple innovation. Their biggest industry, auto’s, is about to be bludgeoned by Chinese imports and not being able to sell anything in China. I don’t see much of a future and think it would be a mistake for any country to join them now.
Lots of excellent points but now substitute the word “EU” for “UK” in the exact same statement you made and tell me how they are better off. Tell me what China or others can’t do better/cheaper than the UK from the list below.
These are the UK’s top 2022 exports:
Gems, precious metals: US$96.2 billion (18.3% of total exports)
Machinery including computers: $74.9 billion (14.2%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $56.9 billion (10.8%)
Vehicles: $40.6 billion (7.7%)
Pharmaceuticals: $27.8 billion (5.3%)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $27.4 billion (5.2%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $20.2 billion (3.8%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $13.2 billion (2.5%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $13 billion (2.5%)
Organic chemicals: $12.6 billion (2.4%)
Source: link to worldstopexports.com
You don’t need the approval of 27 other nations to make changes. You don’t have to provide support for every country south and east of Germany.
UK doesn’t isn’t as heavily dependent on cars as the rest of Europe. Their historically biggest car company, MG, is now a Chinese company. A much larger portion of their economy is service based instead of industrial.
The UK is now in the TPCPP, and the EU is not.
Tell us, with your magical statistics machine, which part of the world has more opportunity and scope for growth: Europe or Asia-Pacific?
China as a market is fast becoming less important for Europe. China as a place to invest in is dead. If China kills the German car business in China then Europe will have no reason to import Chinese cars. If China supports Russia more then all cards are off the table. Most of Europe’s companies did not send their factories to the Asia to lower costs. They sent them to the newly-free eastern European countries who industrialized fast and increased their incomes very nicely. Does Poland or Hungry want to leave Europe? No way. The EU sometimes pisses them off but to leave is not in their plans. Serbia wants in and is on the threshold. Bosnia also. They want in because they get access to the second largest economic zone plus and an organization with considerable resources. They know its cold outside and warm inside even if there are some problems they can be worked out. For now the favorite way is to ignore some EU directives and keep talking. Even France and Germany do this.
The United Kingdom is a special case because it is embedded in the larger English-speaking world which is actually larger than the EU and much richer. It had a good alternative and took it. After the Irish Biden is out we will see a preferential trade agreement stretching across the zone.
China is the EUs largest car market. It’s a big deal to not be able to compete in China. And even if Europe doesn’t import Chinese cars, they’ll lose exports to other countries who will import more Chinese cars. China is now the worlds largest car exporter and the gap is going to grow every year.
VW is the 2nd largest car maker in the world behind Toyota. Here’s some data on them…
link to best-selling-cars.com
And India? countries in Southeast Asia? Africa? Near East? Latin America?
Population of Poland and Hungary and other littler countries of Eastern Europe versus India, Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia? Go on…
EU as a consumer market where consumer spending is contracting due to the high burden of tax and debt to support bloated public sectors, large numbers of customers will be looking for savings… maybe Dacias will get sold, but how many compared to Japanese, Korean cars? Even India, Malaysia, Thailand, have their own brands of car that could be exported.
India might be the one to watch, and the UK has a bit of a leap on trade with India over the EU.
The democratic republic of the Yukraine seems to be eager to join our corrupt authoritarian circus nevertheless…. yes I am back in town …..for a while anyway..