About Those Unemployment Claims, Deflation, and Other Tweets of the Day

April 2, 2023

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8:04 pm

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32 comments

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Economics

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Jack

3 years ago

“When the President and I took office in January 2021, we inherited a financial stability apparatus at Treasury that had been decimated,” Yellen said at a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics.

“For example, I walked in to find an FSOC [Financial Stability Oversight Council] team that was less than one third of the size it was five years prior.

In 2016, FSOC’s policy, analysis, and operations teams were fully staffed. By 2021, the analysis team had been eliminated,” she said.

StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to Jack

“

“When the President and I took office in January 2021, we inherited a financial stability apparatus at Treasury that had been decimated,”

“

Wow! Go Trump!

vboring

3 years ago

Are there big leveraged derivative markets on commercial real estate?

If not, who cares? Does this market really matter?

Sunriver

3 years ago

Deflation is necessary in 2023. However, if deflation would have occurred in 2008 to the level it fundamentally should have, a Great Depression could have been avoided later (circa 2024? 2025?).

With the amount of outstanding debt in 2023, an unraveling in asset valuations and derivative market will spell hunger, war, civil unrest, and class warfare.

You are not predicting just deflation Mish, you’re predicting the nail in the cofin of the post WWII spoils the United States has enjoyed.

Nobody will want the US dollar. Deflation with a weakening dollar?

Can not get any worse outside of 1931.

StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to Sunriver

“..an unraveling in asset valuations and derivative market will spell hunger..”

Since we all know grain, corn ad vegetables only grow in derivatives and asset valuations; not soil; after all…..

michiganmoon

3 years ago

According to anonymous sources Trump kicks kittens and punches puppies.

There is a reason most people don’t trust the media.

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/08/news-republicans-democrats-trust-partisanship

Jack

3 years ago

Reply to michiganmoon

I believe Trump is not nice to a lot of people as well

inonothing

3 years ago

Reply to michiganmoon

From the Axios link,

“The standards used by traditional media outlets — like fact-checking, bylines, datelines, and corrections — have not been fully-adopted by online news commentators on blogs, podcasts and social media.

Yes, but: The internet can’t be fully blamed for the erosion of media trust.”

The reason the internet hasn’t adopted any responsibility for information posted online is Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which protects internet companies from responsibility for online content (thank you, Congress); and the reason TV and radio news has become less reliable is because of the elimination of the fairness doctrine and equal time rules governing broadcast news in exchange for free access to the public airwaves (again, thank you, Congress and the corrupting influence of money in politics).

Christoball

3 years ago

Which countries economies are already in recession?????

Dr Funkenstein

3 years ago

Why would you take John Lounsbury seriously? Trump did not even bother to build the wall he promised voters in 2016.

Don’t you know how George Soros has set up sites to print lies so various fake new sites like the A P and John Lounsbury will breathlessly quote them as reliable?

Mish

3 years ago

Reply to Dr Funkenstein

What does this have to do with John Lounsbury?

Did Trump say that or not?

michiganmoon

3 years ago

Reply to Mish

We don’t know.

An anonymous source allegedly said that there is a policy proposed on paper not officially adopted by his campaign that the US would attack Mexican drug cartels and try to enlist the Mexican government’s help. Of course Lounsbury’s tweet makes it sound like he wants to attack the Mexican government not the cartels, which apparently passes as “journalism,” because he knows most people don’t go past/remember past the headlines per studies.

Wouldn’t shock me if Trump is considering it, either way the media is manipulative.

8dots

3 years ago

Vacant office space : Joe Manchin, Joe Consorti vs Uncle Joe and his BLM DA’s who want to put Trump on the wall.

8dots

3 years ago

Banks lending decisions. Conservative for 8Y/9Y, between 2011 and 2019, in a low slog up. Took off after covid, – PPP loans, EIDL loans… shingle mums loans – stopped cold, thereafter retraced 62% of the move. // The take out window vector is almost as long as in 2008. If the banking systems panic persist it will rise, – either straight up, or in series of pulses like in 1931/32. If the panic decay the take out window will shut for the night. The banks will be on yellow alert ready to jump. // Banks lending + Fed lending ==> Total money supply.

HippyDippy

3 years ago

I guess it’s pretty obvious that we will “blunder” our way into another senseless war as well as totally collapse the global economy. If you vote, I blame you for this.

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to HippyDippy

It is unquestionable that the current terrible situation in the US is the direct responsibility of voters.

StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

“It is unquestionable that the current terrible situation in the US is the direct responsibility of voters.”

There is no guy named “voters.” ( I think….. At least I’m not aware of anyone named Voters Trump….)

There are certainly subsets of voters who are directly responsible. Many/most of them are by now dead.

If you really feel the need to blame some abstract aggregate; it would be less flat out wrong to blame the militia. They were the ones who should have put a stop to the madness of standing armies, Federal Agencies, professionalized police forces and all the rest usurping what in free countries are left to direct action by affected citizenry; before those kinds of always-and-everywhere-throughout-all-of-history subversive institutions grew comparatively powerful enough to make the current totalitarianism possible, hence inevitable.

whirlaway

3 years ago

Why can’t we have deflation in assets and inflation in commodities? – with the latter being brought about by the endless global wars and relentless money-printing to fund it and also to keep the frayed social nets going for a little more time to avoid domestic upheavals.

Jack

3 years ago

Reply to whirlaway

Commodities make up half the cost of a new house. Labor the other half.

Deflation in assets and inflation in commodities would mean wages decrease more than commodities increase.

Matt3

3 years ago

Reply to Jack

Understand but that will not happen

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to Jack

And the cost of interest the last half.

StukiMoi

3 years ago

Reply to Jack

“Commodities make up half the cost of a new house.”

Of The Little House on the Prairie…..

In San Francisco in the current #DumbAge, it’s more like commodities and labor each making up half A PERCENT of the cost of a house. With the remaining 99% being made up by purely artificial asset pumping.

If assets were left to truly deflate (fat chance….) without backstop, houses get MASSIVELY cheaper. To a much, much greater degree than wages drop. As do stocks. And bonds. And derivatives. And every other claim on future income streams. Cheaper houses and offices and factories, improve competitiveness. Which increases labor demand in competitive industry. Which increases wages in real terms. And real terms is all that matters.

Jmurr

3 years ago

Heard Manchin this morning and hope he runs. There has to be a better alternative then Biden and Trump.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

“. . . the average recession start date occurred when . . .”

And what part of this particular period in time seems average? Trying to even vaguely call when a recession may or may not happen nowadays is near pointless.

Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

Deficit ceiling impasse. Treasury to refill its General Fund Account.

GruesomeHarvest

3 years ago

Invading Mexico is only fair. They’ve been invading us for the past 50 years.

Doug78

3 years ago

Reply to GruesomeHarvest

Attacking Mexico is just clickbait. In the article its information comes from “according to two sources familiar with the situation.” Sheeze, give me a break.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

Reply to GruesomeHarvest

Sounds like a good idea to me, but I’d prefer to have a wall first and round up a ton of M13 gang members first and deporting them.

Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to worleyeoe

“I’d prefer to have a wall first and round up a ton of M13 gang members…”, neuter them, and then deport them… It’s all about the message.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Hell yea, Captain!

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to GruesomeHarvest

There’s plenty of pinchey gringos down there…

Jack

3 years ago

Reply to GruesomeHarvest

Mexicans come because everyone loves their lawns cut, their roof reshingled, their street repaved, garbage cleaned up, etc..

If nobody hired them, they would stop coming.

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