Economists expected 125,000 jobs. ADP reported 62,000 with negative revisions.
The ADP® National Employment Report shows private employers added 62,000 jobs in April
“Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment,” says Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP
Change by Industry Sector
- Goods-producing: 26,000
. Natural resources/mining 6,000
. Construction 16,000
. Manufacturing 4,000 - Service-providing: 34,000
. Trade/transportation/utilities 21,000
. Information -8,000
. Financial activities 20,000
. Professional/business services -2,000
. Education/health services -23,000
. Leisure/hospitality 27,000
. Other services -1,000
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Details
- 1-9: +20,000
- 20-49: -12,000
- 50-249: +21,000
- 250-499: +19,000
- 500+: +12,000
Businesses with 20-49 employees have been struggling since the beginning of 2024. We are now seeing a rapid deceleration of the largest employers.
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
Strategic Uncertainty or Strategic Stupidity?
Why would any business want to expand not having any clue what Trump will do with tariffs?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually brags about this. He calls it “Strategic Uncertainty”.
I call it “Strategic Stupidity”.
There is no benefit to anyone knowing that Trump may undo tomorrow what he says today and that he may not honor any deal he makes anyway.
Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent
Earlier today, I noted Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent, Inventories Soar
Front-running tariffs led to a collapse in real final sales, the bottom-line estimate of GDP
A reader question came up in response to inventories. But as I commented ahead of the report, inventories will vary widely by company.
The BEA reported “The largest contributor to the increase in investment was private inventory investment, led by an increase in wholesale trade (notably, drugs and sundries).“
Sundries are miscellaneous small items, usually of no large value and too numerous to mention separately, such as toiletries, garbage bags etc.
Many drugs are manufactured in Ireland. That was a huge portion of the tariff front running.
Many small manufacturers likely do not have the steel and parts needed to stay in business if they are dependent on China.
Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels
Yesterday, I noted Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels
Amazon considered, then rescinded, price tags that show tariff impact.
Hostile Political Act
Amusingly, it is now considered political act to tell the truth. Go figure.
And it gets straight to the heart of the matter as to who pays tariffs.
Rather than answer the question, the administration blames Amazon.
Every company should do what Amazon proposed to show what big liars the administration is.
Every company should do what Amazon threatened to do. Unfortunately, Amazon backed down.
How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?
On April 28, I asked How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?
I concluded about a month on average. Factoring in the March trade data add another few weeks. Click on above link for details.
The last time I saw large employment stalls was in 1998.
I was hired as a System Engineer through a “Job Fair” by a major telecom manufacturer.
Remember job fairs?
with boomers retiring and croaking, there will plenty of jobs to service them from doctors to food prep to maids………..and banking……..the empire is collapsing under the idiocracy of boomers. democracy works perfectly. trump and biden……..are perfect reflections of boomer mentality.
Wages increased 5.4% yoy, not even close to a “weak labor market” as many news headlines are proclaiming. Until wages get to around 2% yoy growth, the jobs market is strong. Again, this is basic economics.
“Every company should do what Amazon proposed to show what big liars the administration is.” It pains me to say it, but it’s true Mish.
I was looking forward to product origin transparency at Amazon, but now we will not have it.
Like many US shoppers I recently went on a buying spree of dress shoes, consumable car parts, etc. Having pulled forward my demand from late 2025 my online shopping is ending. Many of the consumable items I bought two to three weeks ago are no longer available from US warehouses.
I could have made it through the summer on my old tires and serpentine belt but why wait for tariff pricing or unavailability?
Tariffs
Permanent tax replacer?
Temporary cudgel?
The press should be focusing more on this than they currently are. Instead we get models dating rock stars, aging stars and their film franchises, and stories on Trump’s EEEEEEEEEEEEEVIL nature. If the press is going to maintain their reputation as deliverers of relevant facts, whether you’re going to have a job or not surely counts.
The mainstream press has not had a “reputation as deliverers of relevant facts” for at least 15 years. Trust in the media is in fact at all-time lows in multiple surveys.
Business opportunity for guys like Mish!
The media’s reputation ship has sailed long ago.
Of course the good news about the recession is it will bring down inflaiton. Employment costs will decline, as they don’t have to chase after employees with higher wages. A slowdown in travel has already resulted in lower airfares, and soon hotels, etc. Unemployed people don’t buy houses, so we will likely see a good 10% reduction in home prices. Recessions are a necessary part of economic life, and as long as it doesn’t get out of hand – as in 1981, then “this too shall pass.”
Except this one was caused by one person.
Yes – he certainly brought it forward, as he has no understanding of economics, but a slowdown was in the cards, as wages simply have not kept up with inflation, so people pull back. The 3 trillion in Covid money was gone, as well as another 3 trillion in the infastructure package, so when the sugar high is gone there is always a reaction. BTW – Wharton Business School should ask for Trumps degree back – LOL
Correction: $4.5 was poured in by the Fed under trump. $2.5 under biden. What will the Fed have to do to fix trumps new mess?
We were in a recession under Biden.
So we are standing at the precipice of stagflation. As always bonds are clueless and so they rally incassently, in turn making it easier to defend hugely overvalued equities. Ironically, this will only further embolden Trump to continue with his trade agenda. Investors will find out too late how much money they have lost by being uber-bullish in the face of a clearly negative environment.
The market thinks 6-9 months ahead. Credit spreads have declined as fast as they went up this month (look at the chart on the FRED website). The VIX is still 1 standard deviation above its mean. The bottom is in or close enough for me.
4.175 on 10 yr
By the way, Amazon “backing down” means they didn’t want the peons to figure out their +++100% markups versus mfg. price in China. Why not buy directly from Uncle Xi’s Friendly Outlet Store and cut out Bezo and The Waltons.
Trump’s revenue tariffs alone will generate more than enough income this year to replace the income tax paid by the bottom 75 percent of personal income tax payers. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trumps-first-100-days-of-tariffs-the-first-steps-toward-the-golden-age-of-america/
Yes, but then if trade agreements set tariffs to zero where will revenue source from?
What exactly is Trumps tariff objective? Personally, I think it is to increase government revenue without calling it a tax hike.
Half the population doesn’t pay income taxes at all. This is hardly impressive.
That’s an impossible calculation to make.
Looking at the release I see real final sales at +3% not a drop. Am I missing something here?
I’m not an expert but I am pretty sure that there’s various “real final” numbers, some of which have nearly identical names but different values. I don’t think Mish is using the one that shows as 3% in the press release.
Update: Looks like Mish is using “Real Final Sales of Domestic Product”, (-2.5%), rather than “Real final sales to domestic purchasers”, (+2.3%) or “real final sales to private domestic purchasers”, (+3.0%).
With the sharp decrease in port activity, trucking to warehouse and end store transport, and Amazon and UPS warehouse to end user transport, the Sahm and Mckelvey’s indicators will soon flash positive. The operative SPX primary decay fractal series is a3-phase 12 Feb 2025 19/36 of 40/24 days :: x/2-2.5x/ 1.5x’ fractal decay series. The 40 day 2nd fractal is composed of sequential 11 March 3/7/8/5 day and 7 April 3/8/8 of 8/5 day 4 phase series. A substantial nonlinear crash will occur with near the end of the 4th 5 day fractal ending 6 May 2025.
So this time, May 6th is the big crash date? I lost a lot of money shorting stocks the last time you gave your top-of-the-mountain prophesy. I hope you’re right this time.
Fingers crossed!
Hope in not a good strategy!
I do not have an opinion on the ADP numbers. I just caution fellow readers that the amount of hype in the news may be overblown.
what hype is that?
Probably the hype I mention in my other comment here. Nothing you said, but what others are saying.
MSM hype. Youtube is full of nonsense on both sides of the tariff debate – ie, fog of war regarding USA vs China. Partisanship is at an all time high. Everyone has some statistic they’re offering to claim it’s the end of civilization, or whatever.
We’ve been addicted to consumerism on both sides of the Pacific Ocean for many years. I point three fingers at myself and one at others. It is time to step back and reevaluate priorities.
No criticism of your article, Mish.