I’ll take the under on this opening Nowcast number.
With no data in, the GDPNow model starts off the second quarter with a nowcast of 2.4 percent.
A deeper dive into the model data has Real Final Sales at 2.6 percent to start the quarter.
Until we get at least a month of economic data reports, these reports are suspect.
As we near the end of the quarter with most data in, the Atlanta Fed model has been remarkably good. In contrast the New York Fed Nowcast is laughable.
I see no reason to do anything with the NY Fed Nowcast other than suggest the NY Fed abandon that model as useless.
Final 2025 Q1 Forecast
- NY Fed: +2.63 Percent
- Bloomberg Econoday: +0.2 Percent
- Bloomberg Econoday range: -1.5 Percent to +1.1 Percent
- GDPNow: -1.5 Percent, Real Final Sales -1.8 Percent
- Actual: -0.3 Percent, -2.5 Percent Real Final Sales
The GDPNow model was too low on the base model by 1.2 percentage points but too high on Real Final Sales by 0.7 percentage points.
This was a respectable showing in light of trade gyrations.
I did not estimate the base number but did estimate RFS at -1.4 percent.
My Estimate for Real Final Sales on March 27 in reader comments was -1.4 percent. I will stick with that.
I suspect GDPNow may be a bit off on its gold adjustment for March.
GDPNow was off its import adjustment but in the opposite direction. This added to the base GDP number as inventory investment but subtracted from real final sales.
The difference between the base number and RFS is Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) that nets to zero over time.
For about 8 quarters, the GDPNow final forecast was very close to the actual results.
April 30, 2025: ADP Employment Report Much Weaker than Expect, Large Employment Stalls
Economists expected 125,000 jobs. ADP reported 62,000 with negative revisions.
April 30, 2025: Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent, Inventories Soar
Front-running tariffs led to a collapse in real final sales, the bottom-line estimate of GDP
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are gov entities. They earn billions each quarter. Fifty
sixty percent of the cost of a house are going to Trump’s gov pocket. That on top of gov insurance entities earnings.These besides payroll and SS taxes feed the gov coffer. Is the budget deficit real?
Inflation can deflate RE prices in real terms, making the more affordable. A RE plunge risks gov assets. Selling RE to foreigners is good for the gov and the dollar.
There are 15/20 millions more people in the US. Demand for food and oil is rising.
Import was rising. Buying from Temu directly from China increases consumption. Import stored in warehouses should be reflected as a change of inventory. Q1 real GDP should be positive. Most import is stored as raw materials or finished goods. The real effect of tariffs could be felt later on in Q3 and Q4 2025, Q1 and Q2 2026, caused by consumers strike. The Fed will cut rates. Later on production of the important to our national security will rise bc the risk of a war with China is rising as it was in the 50’s and the 60’s with the USSR. We need an enemy. Without a new one we can die. The dollar will rise, unless we lose a war with China.
Not expecting a recession till later this year. It will take time for the tariffs to work their way through our economy.
Businesses and individuals have been loading up on products they expect to go up in price drastically or become unavailable in the next few months. This delays some of the impact.
And the constant pausing or rolling back of some tariffs have also muted the full impact somewhat.
My hope is that Trump keeps substantial tariffs on China and others for as long as possible so we can see the economic impact.
Biden scared me as Chief of the Tribe. Trump scares me as well as the new Chief. Real leaders don’t scare their followers, they show that they know what they are doing. They show the journey is hard but it makes us stronger. The government spends too much money it doesn’t have, and must borrow. Presidents don’t seem to understand that. They are in charge of a bankrupt country that has to prove they still are the bully they were in high school.
Trump confirms empty shelves in his own subtle way…
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-gdp-inflation-tariffs-04-30-2025/card/trump-maybe-the-children-will-have-two-dolls-instead-of-30-dolls
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
And maybe a couple of bucks x 300 million people x 100 items = hundreds of billions in expense to the American people. A lower standard of living all part of MAGA.
Winning! /s
So for anyone who had just slept through April, how much of their @ss did they lose?
Is this a trick question?
April 1, 2025 S&P 500 closed at 5,633.07
April 30, 2025 S&P 500 closed at 5,569.06
So slightly more than 1% of their ass?
America’s GDP leads the world — where it goes, the world follows.
It seems likely there will be a recession during Trump’s administration — the times have been too flush, for too long now. The question is, when and how long lasting?
Even during the 1920s America was the engine of world production, as can be seen by the fact that the New York Stock Exchange crash sent shock waves and depressions reverberating around the civilized world. The stock market, an accurate barometer of a nation’s health except during its boom times (like now), can be counted on to bounce back EXCEPT during sharp economic downturns. GNP is vulnerable only during great recessions and depressions, really.
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You can read more of my writings by visiting: dark . sport . blog — on the net!
Yeah so the reason I’m not going to your blog is because you’re totally wrong about stuff, with no humility or common sense awareness of how wrong you can be.
For instance, take “America’s GDP leads the world”.
If you looked around, you’d see that China has been in a recession for a few years, and much of Europe has gone into recession already too. So the U.S. isn’t Leading The World into a recession, it’s following, and for the same reason that every major nation is drowning in debt and deficits and cannot borrow further without driving inflation.
SPX Apr 30: Engulfed yesterday bar on high vol, but failed to close above yesterday high. SPX might close Apr 2/4 gap in the next few days in May or in June, after testing the lows. QQQ closed the gap. So far, lower highs/ lower lows. SPX 1M flopped in Mar and closed below last month close, but above Mar low. SPX 1W flipped this week.
Apr 30 QQQ high was above yesterday high, but closed below yesterday close AND
below Apr 2 close at 476.15, despite all the effort, after 19TD, at a much lower speed
GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs.GDP will rise as import drop in 2Q.
Only how much?
Won’t the overall numbers be very sporadic, and with zero consistency for quite sometime? The consistent numbers that we are/were used to seeing, were bounced off of equally consistent numbers as an outcome.
What we are witnessing slightly now, but will be seeing full blown in a quarter or so, are inconsistent numbers, some being sold, hoarded, negotiated constantly. Some for inventory, some for emergency, some for usage, and some for sale, but no clear % of each, and no way to get one, I do not believe, in the state of unknown we will be in.
With that being said, won’t all numbers have to be considered skeptical at best? With constant fluctuations based on “World Demand Now” to a much larger degree?
Not sure Government numbers will be any more reliable, for the same exact reasons, even if said otherwise, I won’t buy into it. This is a whole new situation, with much secrecy, and fluctuations at every turn.
Good luck sorting anything out, with excellent accuracy, for awhile IMO…
“GDP figures produce the officials, and officials produce the GDP figures.”
Strong comeback for QQQ to end Liberation Month up 2%. Maybe GDP NOW is on to something. Nah, they suck at what they do. After projecting a Q1 economy slowing at a rate of 2.5% just yesterday they now project 2.4% growth for Q2. Yes, this report is useless.
Mish quoted the actual (gold-adjusted) GDPNow numbers above and in previous posts. It was -1.5%, not -2.5% as you keep posting.
Reading comprehension issue? Or political tourette syndrome?
I took the 2.5 right off their site. Page one. Offset and bolded. Check it out for yourself.
And how do you explain a 4.9% swing in one day? Do you believe the numbers and if so how do you benefit from them? It’s complete garbage. So bad that even Mish called them out.
Cant believe Trump would allow the Labor or whatever Dept. to release ANY negative GDP numbers like the first quarter.
How else can he sweep in to save the day in Q2 by rescinding tariffs and spurring GDP and then claiming it’s all due to him and his policies 😀
Well, he’s blaming it on Biden.