Will You Go to a Bar? Concert? Restaurant?
Statista has an Interesting Poll on Covid-19 reopening activities.
My Answers
- I seldom go to movies and would definitely avoid them.
- I miss pubs very much, especially weekend karaoke. But microphone sharing is one of the riskiest things. I will suffer longer.
- I don’t like sporting events or indoor concerts or gyms at all and would not go anyway.
- I miss eating out, especially on weekends. After dining out, we do karaoke. This is a perhaps, except for the karaoke part. It would depend on the place, the crowds, and distancing.
- I don’t frequent malls, but if I was so inclined, I would go unless they were packed. If there were too many people, I would leave.
- I would go to museums if they were not crowded, but this is not an activity I normally do.
- I cut my own hair, miserably, and it is short enough to postpone the decision. When I get tired of my bad cuts I will reconsider. But perhaps I get better and save the time and money.
- Supermarkets are already in. I am pretty careful when I am in one. Thay have not been crowded.
I doubt if I am close to the typical person, but my answers seem to be in the ballpark.
Yet, most things are clustered around the 45-55% level. This is higher than I expected, especially for pubs and bars.
Two Caveats
- What people say they will do and what they actually do may be totally different things.
- What happens 6-8 weeks from now will very much depend on the results over the next 3-4 weeks.
Heaven help us if there is a second major wave and other panic.
Meanwhile the shutdown costs keep piling up. I expect millions of small businesses may fail.
For discussion of one owner’s reaction, please see Closing Permanently “Thank You From the Bottom of Our Hearts”
Is Sweden’s Herd Immunity Strategy the Best We Can Do?
Mish
I will only go to the grocery store which I already do and they manage it very well where I live.
You are so right Mish – all these businesses are cooked. Even a 5% or 10% decline in revenue can wipe out all of their profits. We’re talking about 25%-40% permanent revenue loss. Very few businesses can survive that.
I don’t understand these “magical” thinkers who make statements that the economy can thrive if only we let people go out. They blame the shutdown for all of our problems. They don’t understand that Fear is an incredibly strong emotion and that graph above shows that you can’t dismiss people’s fears.
I’m quite healthy but that doesn’t matter. Healthy people may live but suffer kidney, heart or lung damage. We don’t know enough. Why do people think dying immediately is the only negative outcome? The data says otherwise but we don’t know the rates yet. My mom is old and unhealthy and I have overweight family members which is a big risk factor. I WILL NOT be the one to infect and kill a family member.
I just renewed my season football tickets and 3 days ago I flew from New York to Seoul, and I’m 65. What does that tell you about my limits? On the way to Seoul we weren’t attacked by natives or chased by tornadoes and we never ran out of food or water. The US would never have expanded past the Appalachians if the Colonial people had the backbone of the people today.
Surprised Korea is allowing in foreigners from poxy places.
Let me inject you with SARS, MERS AND Covid-19. Want to press your luck?
I like coffee in the morning. I wouldnt like being injected with coffee.
Stay inside curled up in a ball wearing a gas mask if you wish. But dont get angry at ppl who travel or go out for a drink.
Who is wearing gas masks ? If you are confident then inject yourself with all viruses. You talk big but if you were so confident then you would inject yourself with any virus that came along.
If you have kids in CA CSU, demand a tuition refund!
May 12, 2020 / 6:29 AM
California cancels fall university classes as Fauci warns of reopening too soon
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – California’s state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes on Tuesday for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.
Why ? Classes aren’t cancelled. They are online. I have multiple degrees from accredited institutions that received the same accreditation as most major universities and colleges. There simply is nothing you cant learn from home.
So I’m assuming you don’t have a child in college? My daughter attends a CSU and this is an excellent decision. We all support it including my daughter. The online classes are going very well. She will still live in her college apartment. They do most of their work outside of class anyway. She already had some online classes in past semesters. The bigger issue is Freshman housing. I don’t know how they’ll handle that.
A twenty-year professor on starting college this fall: Don’t.
Diane Klein
Apr 13 2020
This is a message to all high school seniors (and their parents). If you were planning to enroll in college next fall — don’t.
Yeah sit back and do nothing while others learn online and through other means. I am sure those students who do nothing won’t fall behind. The 20 year professor probably doesn’t even teach anymore or barely knows how to teach. Covid-19 is going to put an end to traditional classroom learning which was overrated anyway in the age of the internet. Professors and systems that don’t adapt will not survive. I hope some private schools go broke. They deserve to if they cannot adapt.
“As an admitted freshman, it is not your responsibility to spend a fortune or go into debt to help a cash-strapped financially-mismanaged institution stay afloat. If they won’t be around a year from now without your tuition dollars, you’re better off finding that out without enrolling and accepting the substandard education that will be the best they can do under these circumstances.”
—
THIS ! Even in normal times these institutions take your money and give you very little. The professor states they are surprised by how little students know how to use online platforms. This is shocking ! The system of higher education needs major reform and Covid-19 is just the medicine it needs.
I know tons of people with kids going to college in the Fall and they all plan to attend online if that’s what occurs. What’s the alternative? Sit home and play video games? Online learning has come a long way. Put yourself in our shoes. Sitting home doing nothing is not an option. Moving to your college town and doing online classes sounds way better to college kids and their families.
Dennis Prager’s opinion:
Easy to say in hindsight… things looked a lot different 2 months ago.
Open it up and let the virus rip. Hindsight will be oh dang that was not a good idea, there are lots of dead people. Oh and look the businesses failed anyway because SANE PEOPLE MINIMIZE THEIR EXPOSURE DURING A PANDEMIC.
Businesses were dying before the lockdowns here. Our downtown malls and restaurants were dead and I cancelled all of our travel plans as did many of my friends. I didn’t need a lockdown to completely change my spending behavior. Opening up will not save the economy. The economy will only come back when fear is gone. You’ll see. Fear will rip us to shreds and there is zero chance to beat the virus here now because it spread too far. Only the countries that beat the virus will resume normal life.
Opinions are like assholes everybody has one.
If you count Prager’s mouth, he’s got two.
Movie theaters in the afternoon, unless it’s some recently released, dumb Disney blockbuster, are usually pretty empty.
As several have mentioned, travel is a kicker. General items:
One other item I forgot:
Bubbles B Goode
I’m in my mid-30s, in shape, and relatively healthy – all in all at low risk for mortality from this (as it stands now) and thus not overly concerned about engaging in shopping trips for necessities or outdoor activities with small groups. That said, I’d still vastly prefer to wait until we know more about recovery complications (what’s the actual risk of stroke, long-term lung or organ damage, etc) before I willingly subject myself to large crowds or go somewhere with tight quarters where I’d have to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with others. I’d also like to be able to see my parents again (my father in his late 70s and my mother in mid 60s) with some degree of confidence that I would not be potentially infecting them, so that will further discourage any egregious risk taking on my part even if I felt safe personally. This is also the reason I’ll continue to wear a mask in public, as it’s not about your own safety (although that’s a nice side-benefit), it’s about not infecting others who may be more compromised than you are.
You can’t really plan to not see them for a while, either. My mom had a medical issue that caused me to have to fly deep into the trumplands. I quarantined until I was tested negative, but the flight full of coughing, maskless people was pretty white-knuckle.
How long ago was that flight, that is Fing terrifying!
Did you die?
A very sensible attitude. Most of the morons can only think of two outcomes: dead or alive. “You can get hit by a bus tomorrow!!!”. That’s true, BUT you can get hit by a bus …. AND live as a crippled person. That’s actually the worst outcome.
Not sure if the poll captures whether the person used to participate in the said activity/event pre-COVID. For a person that never goes to the movies, it doesn’t matter whether or not the restrictions are lifted. Same for a person that never goes to bars, etc.
Once the restrictions are lifted and MSM says it’s safe to go, everybody will be out there.
“A healthy person has a hundred wishes, but a sick person has only one.”
― A.G. Riddle, Pandemic
Florida relaxed restrictions, so I’ve gone out a couple times to my favorite restaurants. Crowds have been light, which is nice. Restaurants are very cautious.
That survey was a blunt financial forecast. Even if half of those responding ( 20-25% of all respondents ) they would avoid an activity or place, the economic slowdown will lead to a depression.
We are hunkered down. And, will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
We only go to 2 shops:
Groceries are delivered.
For now, no more travel, dining, movies.
You on the Ron Swanson diet?
And he’s the social director.
Missed opportunity and wasted time…
…So what would a more targeted public-health approach look like? Let’s take just the age-skew data and rewind to late February, when the first two residents of the Life Care nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, died from COVID-19. At that point, given the striking clarity of the data as it was coming out of China, a national effort to focus on protecting the health of the country’s elderly could have begun in earnest. We could’ve immediately prioritized the supply of PPE to old-age homes, perhaps deploying a sort of national monitoring force of public-health officials to hold these facilities (notoriously poorly run) up to standard and ensure that new, coronavirus-specific hygienic protocols were enforced. We could’ve done the same for testing materials, requiring residents and staff to be regularly tested, as New York has just now started to do, only months later, after nearly 5,000 have died in nursing homes in the state. We could’ve stopped discharging from hospitals elderly patients who were going to return to nursing homes and potentially spread the disease, instead establishing a more centralized quarantine system like those in Hong Kong and Wuhan. We could’ve been much more emphatic and explicit in issuing behavioral guidelines for the elderly, their families, and those interacting with them, so that it was much clearer precisely what the risks to the old were and how all of those around them could try to minimize them. We could’ve provided additional support for those living alone, or trying to isolate, in part by ramping up meal- and prescription-delivery programs. We could’ve deployed the limited resources we had capable of real contact tracing to focus on elderly communities, and as we expanded those resources, we could’ve continued that focus even as the contact tracers expanded their purview to deal with more and more of the pandemic.
Woulda coulda shoulda. Cuomo could maybe not have ordered elderly people in hospitals with the Virus to go back to elderly-care homes. Criminal stupidity.
Agism
The President said it was just the flu and going to go away.
I will miss traveling. That’s it. The rest I can deal with.
Wife & I have been doing more traveling than usual lately, and otherwise just going about our lives as usual, except we cannot go to restaurants. The only time we wear a mask is if we have to, to get in a store. But if some of you want to shelter in your basement, go right ahead. BTW, really enjoying the less traffic.
I plan to do all the things I love to do as well as many things I have always wanted to do. And the more things that open, the more I will do.
The world is a large and wonderful place and I plan to take this opportunity to explore as much of it as possible while the “crowds” are kept away by fear. The lack of demand should drive prices down which will make it even easier – and more enjoyable.
Yes, lack of demand may mean many of the things I want to do simply won’t open – or will close.
However, I am sure there will be plenty to keep me occupied when I am not working.
Lack of crowds makes this a rare opportunity.
I like your philosophy! I am with you on that.
Masks aren’t magic.
They reduce the amount of virus emitted, and the amount of virus received.
The reduction depends on the nature of the mask of the emitter and the receptor.
However, if you are jammed in shoulder to shoulder for a short time, or in any enclosed space with others for an extended time, or in a place where there is heavy breathing (?!?), there is greater likelihood of transmission despite masks being worn. Even good masks–which most people still DO NOT have. This is not even considering those who refuse to wear masks.
That is where distancing and separation come in as an important adjunct to masks.
I wear a P100 full face mask. Even that isn’t 100%. I wear it mainly because it’s a lot more comfortable than the other masks. It doesn’t form a sauna around your mouth.
With nano particles…takes an N95 to have any sort of effectiveness as a filter – even though viruses are smaller than the filter spaces, they become trapped in the mask layers and by ionically binding to the filter material.
The gold standard for face masks is ASTM-F2100.
When worn properly, N95 masks get very hot inside and are very difficult to breathe in due to the pressure change between the air inside and the outside atmosphere. It is like breathing through a blanket and can become distressing to the user. A user’s blood-oxygen saturation can drop and carbon dioxide increases significantly with correct and prolonged use. Even a healthy and fit adult could find wearing an N95, if put on correctly, difficult after an hour or so of use. An older person or an immunocompromised individual likely would have a very hard time using an N95 mask even for a short time. Wearers may take it off for a break which would reduce its protection. Children and infants are also generally not appropriate candidates for wearing N95s as the risk of suffocation is higher.
The natural tendency is to touch, adjust, temporarily remove and replace masks thus increasing contamination risks.
There is the aspect of controlling virus ejection from coughing and sneezing to some degree (when person sick is wearing mask). But when the mask becomes saturated that sneeze now carries a greater load out into the air.
The other aspect of masks is limited effectiveness time wise before saturation. Post saturation the mask becomes a greater risk than benefit. The outer layer of a mask, like a fishing net, will filter but also accumulate pathogens, without inactivating or killing them. The longer a mask is worn in an infectious environment, the more concentrated the infectious load becomes.
And people are lulled into a false sense of security. People start believing that mask-wearing allows them to take risks and expose themselves to more coronavirus dangers and then continue on to exponentially infect others.
Its not the popular thing right now I know (anti-masks)…
Back in February I bought 2 boxes of 50 of AO Smith Pleats Plus…”Easier to breathe through, despite NO exhalation valves, due to large pleated surface area & low-resistance filter. Pleats flex with mouth movements to improve communication, won’t muffle the voice like cup masks. Rating: N95″
The guy I bought them from had bid on a lot of thirteen boxes in fall 2013 and was surprised to end up with 13 cases of masks.
Works great–they were made for use in active industrial applications where you might end up breathing harder than resting or walking.
Already had it, so I’ll be doing anything I please if permitted.
When are you all planning to get it?
It’s endemic, cannot be contained, so everybody will be exposed sooner or later…
Completely agree. It’s not if you’re exposed, but when.
Yep similar to Epstein-Barr virus and cytomegalovirus. Our bodies will keep them in check if healthy. If not they become active and start ravaging our bodies.
Drugs cannot correct nutritional deficiencies or imbalances. For example, drugs that lower cholesterol or hypertension have no effect on the underlying insulin resistance. Doctors have known for decades that magnesium and chromium deficiency (70-90% of the US population) is strongly associated with type 2 diabetes but they commonly don’t test magnesium or chromium levels. Diabetes insulin resistance incurred by mineral deficiencies and enzyme deficient diets is not corrected by Metformin and Insulin shots. Good long term money maker though…
It always disgusts me when the bulk of the medical community seems to treat good nutrition and proper vitamin intake and other forms of prevention as some sort of “quackery” but is willing to spend billions of dollars advertising all sorts of medications for all kinds of “treatments”.
That is the inevitable consequence of capitalist medicine. The idea is to make a profit so the focus is on services that produce profit. If core health was government funded the focus would be on reducing health costs by pushing people towards low cost heath options.
No, If core health was government funded the focus would be on getting a bigger budget every year, layers of bureaucracy and complete incompetence like the CDC.
The CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL has a $10 billion annual budget and a staff of about 15,000 bit was caught completely ill prepared for Covid-19
They usually only know what they are taught in school…I think even the best medical schools only have an hour or two at best of fairly in-depth review of vitamins & minerals. The rest of the national 23+ hours are food pyramid, US RDA’s (minimums), counseling, etc etc etc.
Always about the money…and there is no money in good nutrition (even the alternative side which tends to claim and push nutrition but in actuality peddles cheap chinese sand). Like selling magnesium supplements made up of magnesium oxide (very cheap)…but the body only absorbs around 4-6% before giving you the runs. Magnesium oxide has a high stability constant…in other words…it does not dissociate, or ionize in the gut and therefore just passes right on through to exit.
Good for you. (And I do actually mean that.)
For those that haven’t contracted it, I would argue that this timeframe (shutdown and slow opening) is allowing treatments to be researched and hopefully refined. I am hopeful that something (not necessarily a vaccine) can be found that reliably knocks down the virulence and infectiousness of the virus and then it really can be treated like it’s “just the flu”.
And then opening up becomes easy. Right now, I think opening will be ‘hard’ because there will always be this lingering ‘what if’ hanging around that will prevent normal operation/behavior even if everyone agrees that we are doing the right thing by opening up. There will always be those (myself included) that will leave some aspects of their previous life/behavior for someone else to test out.
Well, you may or you may not have.
Did you have a test confirming the virus?
My son and a co-worker (Colorado) had it almost 2 months ago (or at least were told by a doctor that they did–but no tests available). Ended up being prescribed COPD medication. All better now.
Two weeks ago, the coworker had an antibody test that said that there had been no exposure.
No, but my wife was tested (works with elderly; protective measures were totally inadequate; most of the people there infected, but only a few deaths). Can’t get a test, so I’m waiting for an antibody test. Symptoms are pretty reliable (anosmie, pink eye).
The real issue is effective treatment. The medical community is still struggling to find an effective treatment for this, and that is the real danger. It is doubtful they will ever come up with a vaccine, but if they develop treatment methods that are reasonably effective, it will go a long way towards ending the fear of the virus.
Even though death rates are reasonably low, the virus can do serious permanent damage to lungs and organs which for me is the primary concern. A virus that can easily damage your kidneys irreparably is a real concern even if you are not within a high mortality demographic. Until a treatment is developed that lowers the threat of organ damage, I will continue to avoid all unnecessary human contacts.
What do you mean, struggling? Medicine is very conservative. They kept doing the ventilator thing even though we already knew from Wuhan that almost everybody dies, and lots of doctors now advise against it. Ventilator capacity was the whole justification of this lock-down thing. For the rest, Fauxci likes remdesavir, b/c NIH members are into Gilead stocks, but double blind study proved it’s a complete dud. Many promising leads do not seem to be pursued with too much vigor…
I can guarantee you this is being perused very vigorously world wide. There is no conspiracy to drag this thing out as the amount of money being lost by this is unbelievable. Even with the best case scenario, this is going to cause a economic catastrophe that most people can not even imagine, and will take many years to recover from.
I haven’t heard of any rigorous studies being done with HCQ+zinc(+zpac). The focus always seems to be on something big pharma can make huge $ on.
Most anecdotal reports of HCQ have been positive so long as treatment begins as soon as symptoms present, rather than waiting until “last resort”.
But HCQ is INEXPENSIVE … seems like big pharma does not even want to research an inexpensive existing solution.
It is unfortunate.
I think it was on this site that I saw a breakdown that suggested early intervention with HCQ was helpful while giving it to those already on a ventilator was worthless. So far, the general conclusion is that HCQ is ineffective overall, but I’ve not seen any parsing of the studies in a way that might highlight efficacy at different points in the illness.
There is every reason to believe that if Remdesivir is given during the stage where the virus is replicating rapidly, it would be effective. That would be during the time before symptoms, and the time when symptoms are mild. Unfortunately, Remdesiver can only be given by IV, which means it is given after the patient is hospitalized. Once the patient has been hospitalized, it is too late for an antiviral to be helpful, and it is time for anti-inflammatories, anti-oxidants, and anti-coagulants.
Just like HCQ, Remdesiver is probably useful if given early. Unfortunately that can’t happen, so I expect that it will never be useful.
If you remove convalescents, covid isn’t much worse than the flu when it comes to long term damage and death rates. If your immune system is weak, covid can cause severe damage. If your immune system is OK, the risk is low.
The risk of permanent injury from this virus is still being studied and we will not understand the full effects for some time. We do know it attacks the circulatory system cutting blood supply to organs and hemorrhaging, causing permanent damage. Many people with mild cases of the virus have had major complications like blood clots and heart failure. To say the risk of permanent injury is low is misleading and the last thing we need right now is more incorrect information.
I reckon it depends on which medical community you subscribe to. Plenty of effective treatments. A number of doctors having a lot of success throughout the world – hydrogen & oxygen therapy both breathing treatments and IV, IV C/D/A, etc etc etc. Could start with Dr. David Brownstein for quick example.
For some the only effective treatment is change of lifestyle and eating habits…for those medicine will struggle to assist. The body needs minerals and vitamins to function. For example there hasn’t been a cancer patient yet that wasn’t deficient in selenium. The food you put into your body is the SINGLE most powerful factor that determines your health and well-being.
The food supply is woefully inadequate in providing those. Especially if one constantly surfs the processed pap aisles…or daily subscription to fast food.
Good food isn’t fast and fast food will never be good!
The body requires a range of vitamins and minerals in the right ratios and in the right form to function properly. While humans (and animals) can absorb minerals from sources other than plants…we are not proficient in absorbing inorganic minerals thus requiring plants to provide the conversion to organic form (attachment of a carbon molecule). For example, the breakfast cereal “Total” advertises 100 percent of your recommended daily iron intake. You can grind up the cereal in a good blender (or dissolve cereal in hot water) and extract the iron filings with a magnet. Depending on the food product the particles can range from straight powdered iron (“reduced iron”) to compounds such as ferrous sulfate and ferric phosphate. The food manufacturers didn’t lie when they said it was iron fortified…but ground up metal filings don’t absorb well in the body. Thus you might eat 100% of the recommended (minimum) daily intake but your body will absorb very little if any of it leaving you believing you are well supplied when you are not. Plus the potential toxic effects from substances never intended to be food.
Runs through many of the things being researched.
It’s a great pity the HCQ+ protocol got demonized/politicized since it has high prophylactic efficacy and could be used to greatly reduce the dangers of opening up. Unfortunately, it’s been taken off the table.
This thing has been very badly handled on many levels by many different players. A stress test for Western democracies.
My guess for the future of the opening lies with the Kawasaki-type disease in children.
If this becomes even slightly more prevalent or more in the news you will have the modern parent become much more skittish about re-opening anything, including the schools and going back to work.
(When I was little, I guess our parents would have sent us to school in a smallpox epidemic, walking uphill 10 miles to school in a blizzard. And it was uphill again on the way home.)
People apparently don’t care about an amorphous at-risk person somewhere who may die, and there is a sense of invulnerability in many young adults, but those very same invulnerable people with children are extremely squeamish about setting their child up for a possibility lifetime of difficulty with a serious effect from this disease.
One study I saw is that kids were biologically half as likely to transmit the disease but socially had twice as many contacts likely to result in transmission, in essence having the same transmission factor as adults.
The logical guidelines for reopening schools would include greater spacing in the classrooms (how–with many classrooms at 30 or more kids?), better ventilation (major expense), teachers that accept the risk of facing 30 or more kids every day with possibly a different batch of students every hour. It’s so damn difficult, that on-line learning is the the most do-able thing, which means that at least one parent will continue to be tethered to the house every day. (Liquor stores do do delivery!)
In NYC area they’ve had about 80 cases. How many kids live in that region? 5 million? And it hasn’t been verified if what they have is caused by covid. It might be something new.
I doubt they would shut down schools over that.
I believe the normal incidence of Kawasaki disease is about 1/100000 children. Not sure if the 80 exceed that range.
Apparently it does, sorry didn’t do the math. That would equate to 8 million children.
Indeed… The Children is an irresistible battle cry. If there aren’t a lot more cases but the media coverage creeps up, I’d be suspicious.
Gotta keep em scared.
I’m in healthcare and wear a mask at work. We have various barriors set up too. I’m ok with it. Not into gyms, bars, or eating out. Rather exercise in fresh air, drink my own booze at home and I know how to cook so I eat rather well. Museums and travel is ok with me with a mask. If I’m outside, I don’t wear a mask at all. I ride a motorcycle and the only good thing related to Corona is I got clear roads and I’m loving it!
we make it a point to have our mothers over for sunday dinners, etc.
she got to see her G-grandson on mothers day
everyone is healthy and working on keeping it that way
My wife and I will be going on vacation to mountains next weekend
we’ll shop safely at grocers, etc.
but will forgo any place that has crowds or stupid people not following simple precautions
otherwise it will be same as usual – and wait and see attitude for summer
We are fairly certain the virus is already out in the general population.
That being the case, sheltering in place can only slow down the rate of infection.
Assuming Covid19 is as infectious as it is purported to be, upon lifting the lock-downs therefore, a resurgence is guaranteed.
Now however, we are also hearing that some of our leaders want to extend the lock downs till a vaccine is found.
Considering that we have been working on a Corona virus vaccine for the best part of 30 years with nothing to show for it, a vaccine in short order is not in the cards. That Mr. Gates should claim that he is 18 months away from producing one should elicit a healthy degree of scepticism.
On a related note, allow me the following:
If for some reason sea air should turn out to be a phenomenal inhibitor for this virus, we know that in a closed sample Covid19 infects around 30% of the population.
The ships Diamond Princess, Grand Princess, Ruby Princess, Theodore Roosevelt and the Zaandam (for which thanks to The Guardian we have a very accurate time line: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2020/apr/07/zaandam-onboard-the-coronavirus-hit-cruise-ship) give us a representative sample of more than 15000 individuals between passengers, crew and sailors, that have been exposed directly and intimately to Covid19 during several days.
In the case of the Zaandam, we have more than 2000 passengers and crew that were stranded at sea for 14 days before Covid19 manifested. During those 14 days therefore, passengers and crew mingled intimately in an environment that is notorious as a breeding ground for germs and viruses.
Keep in mind too that cruise ship passengers, on average, are the cohort that is most at risk for this virus.
Yet, in this sample of 15000 individuals over all the ships in question, we have had fewer than 4000 infections and under 30 deaths.
Therefore, if Covid19 should turn out to be more infectious on land, a second wave is guaranteed.
Eradication is also not in the cards. Not any time in the next few months at least.
So, what are you going to do?
…we are also hearing that some of our leaders want to extend the lock downs till a vaccine is found…
Who? Is there a name and a quote?
Bill Gates has said so
Here is another one:
I suspect – without any evidence – that during the first wave not only were more exposed than we think, but also that the virus probably took a big bite out of the most vulnerable, so now the flatten the curve phase is over and presumably more infections will pick up, I expect there to be a lower mortality / critical illness rate the second time around.
Also, if they would just use helpful therapeutics like HCQ+ prophylactically for high risk and immediately for those with flu symptoms, the whole threat could be reduced so much that really people can go back to treating this like a typical flu again – along with the added bonus that as warm weather is now increasingly in effect, more people will be outside which will further reduce the infection rate whilst also boosting immunity.
Time to relax a bit.
I don’t do theater, bars, restaurants, concerts, malls, museums or sporting events anyway. In general, as long as everyone else has a mask on, I have no problem with going anywhere. So, for example, if i went to the mall, and everyone had a mask on, I wouldn’t be concerned about it in the least. The gym concerns me precisely because people can’t wear a mask while they exercise, but other than that, nothing else on the list is a concern.
…should research effectiveness of masks…
That guy without a mask: that’s me! Run Carl, run!
It’s OK. I personally would rather see people wear masks so it dies off completely over the summer and we don’t have to shut down again, but I fully recognize that people are going to choose the other choice, letting it continue to spread, and another crisis in the fall. To me there are only three real choices:
Universal masking was one of the key reasons for South Korea’s success, but I don’t hear many people in the US talking about it. Maybe because there’s a mask shortage.
I hear lots of emphasis on testing and contact tracing, which would have been fantastic to have had in March, but the containment ship has sailed.
So instead we’re left with universal masking, which would put a major dent in the spread of the virus and allow us to open back up with confidence.
responding to Gman and CJ:
Why are you still propagating this sort of misinformation? The masks (at least the non-N95 ones) are not for YOU. The masks are for everyone else to not contract anything from you.
The masks are there to prevent ‘projectile infection’ of others. They are a form of social distancing and social distancing in general will likely be with us for some time. As far as effectiveness, there are many stories/videos that show the effectiveness of a mask at mitigating the distance that a cough/sneeze propagates droplets. As far as choosing to not wear one — well, it may take some time, but that will eventually be recognized as ‘selfish a-hole’ behavior. If you can’t think of others in something relatively simple like this, why should you be trusted to think of others when it becomes more important or more difficult?
I have been and am going to work in our office daily since the start. We are deemed essential and it keeps me from going crazy. I live in IL, and Pritzker just said he thinks we have flattened so well that we now won’t peak until mid-June. I don’t get it. All their metric curves are on a downward slope. Why peak in mid-June now? This has kind of thrown me over the edge. My mother (85) is depressed. My mother in law (79) is uber-depressed. They haven’t left their houses for 2 months.
The entire system in the US will be destroyed if kids can’t go back to school in the fall. No way would I pay full tuition for my oldest if classes are online. I am so tired of this.
I would go to any of those events and places. I have been an NPR/CBS/CNN guy for a couple years, after Trump never became presidential. I currently, though, find myself turning on Fox more often, and I was even swearing at Fauci on a TV loop at Costco yesterday. There seems to be such an attempt at putting out as much bad news as possible lately.
Shout at the virus; it doesn’t care.
There seem to be a lot of bots and astroturfers about, too….
I would be uber-depressed if I still lived in the State Where the Governors Make the License Plates too.
Look on the bright side, per Cuomo it’s not as bad as being dead.
It would seem unlikely it will ever go away in the US, so probably best to resume whatever normal activities aren’t high risk.
Your Governor probably misspoke or you heard him wrong. The model used by the White House says Illinois peak deaths per day was May 10th.
Arm yourself with a little research and don’t watch Fox News. Fox News kills brain cells. If you find yourself yelling at someone giving advice for you and your families health on TV, try changing the channel, I promise they won’t hear your screams, and your screams won’t change if the advice they are giving you is good or bad.
You want to hear that this is almost over. That is what Trump is telling you and you want to accept that because that is easy. Is it true? Only time will tell. If a bunch of people go out without masks and don’t social distance this sucker is far from over.
Keep your family healthy. You have a mother and mother in law that are at high risk.
Jerome Powell speech this morning. Two absolute laughers:
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“There was no economy-threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust.”
“When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.”
The lies just keep getting bigger and bigger.
Proportional to the amount of money printed.
The relative percentages just about match with my risk multi-ranking of these activities. I would defintely do supermarkets (been the errand guy for family for two months now), hairdresser, museum, and big box stores (have done a few times since lockdown).
For the rest of the list, sporting events and restaurants are the only two highly desirable outings for me, but both can and likely will wait for many months perhaps into 2021 before I venture there.
Bars I have always looked for reasons to avoid, this makes it easy perhaps forever. Theater is months off and low interest. Concerts are something I can’t imagine attending (the crowded SRO kind, not the each person gets a theater seat kind) for at least one year, or six to nine months after this event wraps up whichever is longer.
Family vacation for 50th bday to Costa Rica in December will be canceled most likely when our full payment deadline comes. Would have been interesting to see air travel listed here.
“What happens 6-8 weeks from now will very much depend on the results over the next 3-4 weeks.”
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Key. My wife and I already discussed and we’re going to continue current routine for 3 weeks after opening to see if spike occurs.
One change is I have a haircut appointment next week. First one of the day. The rules are 50% capacity / appointment only / masks for both parties.
That’s what’s freaky about the virus, you only see a spike happening a week or two after it actually happened, how we’re supposed to approach this I don’t know… with caution I guess…and when everyone eventually feels more sure after a few weeks and lets down their guard…you then get a spike in cases 🙁 .
It’s oppressive by itself, in Spain there are some anti-government protests starting
My answers are similar to yours. At the beginning of March I was on my gym’s treadmill listening to a woman nearby with a hacking cough. The next day I bought a set of dumbbells and resistance bands. I’m loving my home workouts and really enjoying cycling instead of the usual cardio machines. Mish and karaoke? I would love to see a video of one of your performances.