YouGov asked UK citizens what Brexit options they preferred that were “realistically possible”.
- 40% want a hard Brexit or a Boris Johnson negotiated Brexit. I lump these together because it is a natural alliance that is going to happen. Remainers forced this alliance by blocking No Deal which in turn blocked any deal.
- 19% want to remain. These are primarily Liberal Democrats but rebel Tories and some from Labour want this outcome as well.
- 15% want a delay or a referendum. This group will splinter to a Remain or Customs union because a referendum is not going to happen. Any extension solves nothing.
- 12% want a customs union. This is the official Labour policy but Corbyn seems to give a different answer every day. Labout has huge divisions. Some in Labour want to remain, some want a referendum, and some prefer a hard Brexit. The Labour camp is more split than any other.
- 8% percent will not be happy no matter what happens.
- 5% Genuinely don’t know.
- 2% support Theresa May’s deal
The 15% supporting a delay or a referendum will have to make another choice (or get sucked into a Labour referendum promise that won’t happen).
If so, the vote would likely be split between Remain or Customs Union. But throw it all in one bucket. Say give it all to the Liberal Democrats, a highly unlikely event. That would give the Liberal Democrats 34% vs the Tories 40% for a Tory Brexit Paty alliance. Labour would get smashed.
Apportion the 15% entirely to Labour and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats get smashed.
What Can Realistically Happen?
A whopping 72% believe no deal is possible. Only 7% (primarily delusional remainers) think that it isn’t.
But what does “realistically possible” mean?
Is a 5% chance realistically possible? 1%? 10%?
The least likely options are a second referendum and passing Theresa May’s deal straight up.
A short delay is possible. Johnson could conceivably agree to this in return for guaranteed early elections. But does that imply “realistically possible”?
No Deal is a 100% guaranteed option simply because it is the legal default. The 7% who think it is not realistic and the 21% who don’t know simply are not thinking clearly.
Good News for Johnson
Unmistakable Trend
Recent polls are good news for Johnson.
They also reflect another amusing fact.
Remainers pushed Johnson into a stance in which he increasingly had to rule out a deal in favor of a hard “no deal” stance to win the support of Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party.
Meanwhile, please recall that 21 Tory remainers were outed. They will lose their seats in the next election.
I see no path for Labour or the Liberal Democrats to win unless they form a coalition. That seems unlikely given the Liberal Democrats dislike of Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit preference difference of their parties.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Interesting. There are only two problems:
The general election is not happening right now, and it will probably happen under different circumstances.
Even if Brexit is delivered, that would not be the end of the problem. A Johnson-Farage pact would mean that they have to govern together. The idea seems ridiculous to me in itself, not counting other pretty things such as the SNP landslide in Scotland or the destabilization of Ireland. It is also likely that elitist neoliberal LibDems will establish themselves as a major party (on the expense of both Labour and the Tories). That is probably the worst of all…
The truth is that the best outcome is the continuation of the circus. Elitists find their way in Europe and outside of it. They cannot do well in a gridlock.
I remember reading your stupid blog when I lived in the USA, Mish. Fifteen years later and you are still an idiot. Brexit has nothing to do with the USA. Worry about your own dump of a country’s problems.
Why not ask Donald Trump about that….you’re not an authority on anything cHunt.
Polls show that the SNP will gain at least 50 and possibly a clean sweep of all 59 seats in Scotland in the next election. Alba gu bràth!
Krage – this gets into the Queen’s Consent dilemma.
The Benn Bill made it water tight so Johnson would have to accept the an extension offer. But in doing so the PM now has the legal right to refuse “Queen’s Consent”
Had they not made it water tight, the UK would then ask for an extension and vote against it’s own request (or get another country to do so).
Well, the Speaker ruled this week that Queen’s Consent wasn’t required. I’m not well versed on UK procedure, so the question becomes: Is the Speaker the final arbiter of this question OR does the Speaker’s decision (if incorrect) allow for a legal challenge?
How I understood, UK as a member of EU can veto request for extention from itself, no? I dont think Benn’s bill prevents it… Anyway, we will know it all on Monday… but as Boris is not planning to be dead in a ditch, I assume there is some confidence that it is not going to happen… will see… Speaker is not Constitutional/Supreame Court who would be the final authority to interpret the law, so it is possible it is incorrect and Royal Assent can be withheld
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) – Britain will continue preparing for a no-deal Brexit even if parliament passes a law forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek a delay because any European Union member state could block that request, Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said on Thursday.
“The legal position on an extension is that it requires the support of every member state, including the United Kingdom,” Barclay told parliament. “So it is the case … we would need to continue to prepare for no deal because it is within the scope of any member state to block an extension.” (Reporting by Kylie MacLellan; editing by William James)
If BXP participates, there could be very surprising election dynamics … first past the post is always challenging to extrapolate from general polling.