Once again, rational people wonder what’s going on with the jobs report. The discrepancy between the trend in jobs and employment surges again. 
In reaction to the allegedly hot jobs report, bond yields are down across the board as I type.
The 10-year and 5-year treasury yields are up 14 basis points as of 9:20 AM Eastern. Gold is down $49. But the stock markets are down only slightly.
Jobs vs Employment
From September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together.
Starting around March of 2022, a divergence between employment and jobs became very noticeable, and I have been discussing the divergence since then.
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since May 2023
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,756,000
- Employment Level: +376,000
- Full-Time Employment: -1,163,000
In the last year, jobs are up 2.8 million while full-time employment is down 1.2 million.
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since May 2022
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 6,615,000
- Employment Level: +2,769,000
- Full-Time Employment:+588,000
In the last two years, jobs are up by 6.6 million with full-time employment up 0.6 million, a discrepancy of only 6 million. The rise in total payrolls is about 3.8 million more than the rise in employment.
No amount of BLS smoothing can hide this, but hardly anyone discusses it.
Job Report Details
- Nonfarm Payroll: +272,000 to 158,543,000 – Establishment Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +182,000 to 268,248,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -250,000 to 167,732,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.5% – Household Survey
- Employment: -408,000 to 161,083,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: +157,000 to 6,649,000- Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.0% – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: +433,000 to 100,516 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: +0.0 to 7.4% – Household Survey
Nonfarm Payroll Change by Sector
Government and Health Services are related to the surge of illegal immigrants and the need to address them.
Social assistance jobs, a subcategory of private education and health services, rose by 12,000 in January; 24,000 in February; 9,000 in March; and 40,000 in April, and 15,000 in May.
Government jobs rose by 60,000 in January; 55,000 in February; 78,000 in March; 7,000 in April, and 43,000 in May.
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls January 2022 to February 2024
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 5,000, from +315,000 to +310,000.
- The change for April was revised down by 10,000, from +175,000 to +165,000.
- With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 15,000 lower than previously reported.
Part-Time Jobs
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -50,000 to 4,419,000
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: -+409,000 to 22,662,000
- Total Full-Time Work: -625,000 to 133,264,000
- Total Part-Time Work: +286,000 to 28,004,000
The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.
Hours and Wages
This data is frequently revised.
- Average weekly hours of all private employees is flat at 34.3 hours.
- Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.2 hours.
- Average weekly hours of manufacturers was flat at 40.1 hours.
An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment over 160 million, it’s more significant than it appears at first glance.
Hourly Earnings
This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.14 to $34.91. A year ago the average wage was $33.54. That’s a gain of 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.14 to $29.99. A year ago the average wage was $28.79. That’s a gain of 4.2%.
Year-over-year wages are keeping up with year-over-year inflation after underperforming for many months.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January and April of 2023 at 3.4 percent. It’s now 4.0 percent.
The unemployment rate has bottomed this cycle and will generally head higher.
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
The official unemployment rate is 4.0%.
U-6 is much higher at 7.4%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.
The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.
For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
The model is wrong at economic turning points and is also heavily revised and thus essentially useless.
Birth-Death Methodology Explained
Every month this subject comes up. I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the hype is wrong in my December 8, 2023 post How Much Did the Huge 412,000 Birth-Death Adjustment Impact October’s Job Report?
The month does not matter. If you think the model has a big impact, please click on the above link for why it doesn’t.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
- The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
- The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
Can the Jobs and Employment Numbers Both Be Reasonably Correct?
The answer is yes (discounting measurement error) because they measure different things. A person working three part time jobs counts for three jobs but only a single person employed.
I have repeatedly asked ADP to account for duplicate social security numbers but they won’t. Amusingly, the BLS wants to, but the employees tell me they can’t because “they don’t have access to the data for security reasons.”
This is a simple sort-merge program but alas, we depend on a phone survey for employment numbers.
Notably, discrepancies like these don’t last for years unless there is some truth to the employment numbers because measurement errors are random. Also, the unemployment rate is based off the same set of numbers.
Closing Thoughts on the May Jobs Report
The discrepancy between jobs and employment is persistent and rising.
These monthly jobs reports (CES – Current Employment Statistics) are based on a 5.6 percent sample of the data. Job numbers based on the entire data (QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) lag by about 5 months.
The most recent QCEW data is from December of 2023.
2022 Q4-2023 Q4 CES vs QCEW
- CES: 155,211,000 to 158,269,000 (+3.06 million)
- QCEW: 152,525,000 to 154,848,000 (+2.32 million)
CES reports 32 percent more job gains in 2023 vs QCEW.
Nonfarm Payrolls NSA Minus QCEW
The BLS does not revise the previously reported numbers in its annual benchmark adjustments making the historical charts, including my lead chart, wrong. Jobs are overstated on all the charts.
For discussion of the difference between QCEW and the monthly jobs report please see How Much Does the BLS Overstate Monthly Jobs?
Finally, the rising trend in payrolls vs QCEW corresponds to the rising discrepancy between jobs and payrolls.
Expect more negative revisions to the monthly jobs reports.
I expect the job and unemployment statistics to look great until the election to help boost Biden’s ratings, And when Trump wins the stats will turn negative big time.
Millions of working age people in the US and around the world have been severely injured or killed after taking the covid vaccines.
The severely injured and dead are unable to work.
Therefore the jobs reports will look good because there will be plenty of job openings and hirings created as employers replace the dead and injured vaxxers.
It’s not complicated… the reason nobody wants to acknowledge this is because most – particularly in finance where mandates were extensive… took the injections.
And the injected their kids.
So now they are terrified that they are next.
There is death and sickness all around us… I currently have 3 friends who were previously very healthy — with turbo cancer… they are terminal. I know one with lung blood clots… one with neuro disease… all are fully boosted.
27 year olds who are pro athletes… do not get blood clots.
Boeser was ruled out of Game 7 on Sunday after a blood clot developed in his leg following Saturday’s Game 6 loss. According to hockey insider Frank Seravalli, Boeser was placed on blood-thinning medication and is not expected to play again this season.
Wake the f789 up.
I’m stocking up on popcorn as Fauci and his cabal are going to be held accountable for crimes against humanity for the largest mass destruction of health and lives in history.
The DOD is behind this … nobody will be going to prison … details here https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-extinction-plan-uep
There was a movie titled Double Indemnity.
Fast Eddy, I hope you are wrong.
So do I … but the thing is … I know we are steaming oil out of sand… I know that is not fake news cuz I have two cousins working at the tar sands… and they tell me it’s true…
Steaming oil out of sand… hmmm… most people think nothing of it… just normal BAU… cuz cnnbbc doesn’t tell them to be concerned…
Me… I don’t have Tee Vee so I have to do my own thinking… and I am thinking .. when you steam oil out of sand… you are desperate…
Then I connect the dots and wonder why they were so eager to inject billions with their Rat Juice that they supposedly created and tested in less than a year…
So eager that they censored all scientists and medical professionals who questioned the safety of this Rat Juice…
And they forced people to wear masks when we know that viruses are far smaller than the holes in the mask and pass right through…
It all seems a bit insane… but then I also know that The Men Who Run the World are not insane… they surely have a good reason for doing what they are doing…
And I think back to steaming oil out of sand…. and I consider what would happen if the cheap energy that allows the world to operate without inflation raging out of control…. was in deep depletion …
The global economy would collapse… and The Gates of Hell would open
Surely someone should do something to reduce the suffering… we do not want 8B on the streets hungry and angry
I am so glad I was able to find a job recently. This was a different environment compared to previous searches. In prior searches I applied to many, very good matches. I got 1 or 2 on-site interviews with different companies before receiving and offer. This time I applied to fewer openings in a shorter time. I had final on-site interviews with 6 different employers, but no offers. The 7th on-site interview yielded a job, but I had to relocate. Don’t feel sorry for me. I moved from a blue to red state. There are jobs out there, if one is willing to move.
That has often been the case, depending on the field. My first job out of college was 200 miles away. The second job was another 200 miles away. The third was another 1,600 miles. Then I was transferred 2,700 miles. Then I switched careers and the first move was 450 miles. The second move was 2,900 miles. The third and final move was 2,900 miles.
I might add that I never changed employers for less than a 40% raise. My ambition paid handsome dividends, and four of the six moves were paid for by the employer that recruited me.
Definition of “Employment level”?
I learned from Mish eons ago to pay attention to U6.
It’s stood the test of time.
From Pew:
While the U-6 typically runs anywhere from 3 to 7 percentage points higher than the regular unemployment rate, with the gap wider during recessions and narrower in good economic times, it tends to follow the same pattern as the official unemployment rate.
The biggest issue for me is our national fiscal health = the number of people whose wages and activities are derived solely by appropriating taxpayers real income or saddles the future with debt to feed the non productive, governmental parasitical elements.
The government is in super nova transitioning into a black hole. The energetic blob at this point has crossed the event horizon at an unfathomable 1 trillion dollars every 100 days; it’s literally sucking into a parallel dimension all of the productive classes current and future output. The more it absorbs, the more powerful and insatiable it becomes. Since the theft to sustain this, will inevitably foment insurrection, the panopticon surveillance state must grow in scale with it.
The rentier class is cannibalizing the renter class. In effect, the rentier class and the blob are eating its arms and legs. Massive unemployment is the only logical outcome when 70+ % of people (arms and legs) are driven into abject poverty.
This will collapse the system.
The rentier class is slated next to be cannibalized. Those sweet boomer bucks are being targeted in back rooms as we speak.
America needs governmental Ozempic.
+
Psychotherapy (although they say psychopaths are not treatable.)
The system is catastrophically and destructively unbalanced.
This will not end well.
U6 moves in tandem with the other Us. I have seen no evidence of a divergence in that relationship, but will admit to not looking all that closely.
I believe the surge in government jobs is at the state, and not the federal level.
Composition of jobs market report offers some insight.
Government payrolls up 43.0K
Manufacturing payrolls up 8K
Nonfarm payrolls up 272K
Private non Farm payrolls up 229K
Manufacturing continues weak. These are better paying jobs then people who get paid to move computer screens around (modern version of paper shufflers)
Decent jobs numbers- yes, but adding buying power- No.
People in this economy can work all they want. But are they making any headway in disposable income that matches cost increases associated with a rising standard of living? That answer points to disappointment.
From the manufacturing sector, which includes much of the Union vote, will not be favorable for the incumbent.
Yellen going to China and telling them they have too much capacity confirms that incumbent is fearful and will not be getting support from rank and file Union labor.
As to Fed actions. Nothing in jobs report to sway the needle towards easing at next meeting. For them it is about macro numbers as that is all they care to see. Getting into nuances in a Political year exposes them to cries of favoritism so that will be avoided.
Fed still at least officially remains on the case of restraining inflation unlike Europe which needs manufacturing jobs that are export reliant.
Hey why work 40 hour weeks to make ends meet. Have holidays off and some vacation time every year.
When you can work two or three job 80 hour weeks and wonder if you can make it to next paycheck.
Thanks Joe Biden.
add: Was talking to an Union Electrician that I know just today, about state of affairs in this very Blue state I live in. He told me Federal monies that have been available to help fund public work projects such as municipal incinerators is no longer available
“No soup for you” as the saying goes.
There have been 19 presidential elections since WW2. In 16 of them, the incumbent party candidate has lost the popular vote unless U3 dropped in Q2. Two of the three exceptions were statistical anomalies. The only clear exception was 1956, when Eisenhower won in spite of a slight uptick (by 0.1%) between March and June. I think that was because U3 was trendless that year, and the economy was otherwise strong.
This year, March U3 was 3.8%, April was 3.9%, and May was 4.0%. U3 has broken out of its 2-1/2 year range, amid other indicators of economic weakness that Mish has ably reported and analyzed. Why does the spring U3 trend work? Because not having a job when you want to work is profoundly destabilizing, and translates into voting behavior with a lag.
There are now four things to watch. First is that clown show “debate” in a few weeks, if it even happens. The question there will be how senile Joe appears. Second is the June U3 number to be released in early July. Third is the Real Clear Politics polling average, which currently shows no impact from Trump’s convictions.
Fourth is whether the NY judge throws Trump in prison if the polls don’t change, or if he gains on Biden. Given that I think Trump’s trial had nothing whatsoever to do with the law, and that I also think the Ds are deathly afraid of an election, I will not be one bit surprised if Trump goes to prison.
There is no scenario where the fake NY legal proceeding can result in Trump going to jail, and things go back to “normal”. If there was a way to get away with it, the political establishment would have done it already.
They already used up the “suicide” explanation keeping Epstein quiet. They tried branding everyone who defied them a deplorable, the next Hitler, right wing extremist, whatever.
There are members (plural) of Congress openly stating that there will be mass riots if not full bore civil war if the robe wearing crook in NYC tries to manipulate the federal election.
No one is voting “for Trump”, we are voting to say we have lost confidence in the political establishment, and this crooked so-called judge can’t solve an overwhelming credibility crisis by locking up political opponents.
The TV debates aren’t really debates, and only a fool believes the debates are going to change anyone’s mind. Those who depend on government welfare checks (pharma and defense contractors) will vote for the status quo because their standard of living depends on it. Those who’s standard of living has been wrecked by Washington DC will vote to wreck DC. A TV scream-fest isn’t going to change that.
Washington DC is the problem. Trump is a giant middle finger at DC. So far, there are no candidates with coherent ideas to actually fix the country, so middle finger wins
The most lucid thought you’ve posted today.
I refuse to take the comments section seriously anymore. Sometimes a well reasoned comment may slip through by accident.
I fear for the future. Too many college indoctrinated marxists waiting to grab the reigns of power; to many senile wet farts trying to hold on to power long after they have lost their minds.
I don’t care if I offend the retirees. I really want to offend the gerontocracy. I hope they are offended, triggered and forced to retreat to a safe space. I don’t care. They overstayed their welcome. Respected elders know when to step aside and let the next generation lead.
I hope Trump will eliminate at least one million federal jobs. Not replace the crooks, eliminate the positions for good. Realistically, the US can’t afford to keep them even if they were honest (and they are not). Do I think Trump will do it? not sure. Worst case, he is a middle finger to the corrupt and bankrupt establishment.
If Trump doesn’t slash the size and scope of government, the US will be bankrupt and fail like so many other failed empires before it. We already kicked the can down the road. We already used accounting tricks. We already borrowed until foreign creditors started expressing concern. Its way too late for subtle gestures.
Trump will eliminate federal jobs by the hundreds of thousands, or the rest of us need to prepare for collapse.
Will that comment please retiree Mish? I didn’t ask him. Will it please the marxists with delusions of an endless welfare state? I don’t care what they think.
Arguing over a meaningless 20k or even 100k jobs fantasy is a giant load of crap, and younger Mish would admit that. 100K jobs is less than one percent of the illegal aliens Biden invited into the country. Its barely a rounding error.
Go ahead retiree Mish. Tell us you are triggered. Younger Mish would never have ‘analysed’ such an obvious lie.
Its all fake.
There is a recurrent theme thorough time and history that a “Mandingo” character will save you.
Imagine, thinking a system this rotten can be saved by the people that created it; that permitted it to evolve?
Seriously? You really think at this point they’re going to fix it. People can’t think – that’s how we got here. They eviscerated the education system. The US dolts can’t think they’re way out of a wet paper bag.
IDIOCRACY IS REAL
History is littered with the end of empires.
They don’t blow up in a day.
They wither away decade by decade.
We have been in steep decline since before WW2 when the current course was charted in advance. WW3 against Russia was planned before WW2 was done. Read Lin Yutangs book “Laughter to Tears”. He lays it all out while WW2 was still underway.
He tells us:
WW3 will be started by Britain against Russia to seize their resources.
Japan will be rearmed to fight China.
No one can grasp that the world works like this. Things that appear solid are in fact made of ether and vapors. It’s a complete con job delivered by actors.
Its been steady decay since JFK.
Now the human blob emblematic our Federal deficit – who just won the Miss. Alabama Contest will now sing a song.
Then eat 6 Big Macs.
Its all bullshit, and its embarrassing that Mish is trying to ‘analyse’ bullshit as though it has predictive powers. Its just a pile of end trails Mish, it has the same validity as astrology “facts” but its not as entertaining.
95% of Bidenomics is simply fraud. Take away the political adjustments for “birth/death” and the all the illegal immigrants taking temp work — and there have been ZERO new jobs created for at least $10 trillion in new Treasury debt.
Indebt future generations by more than $10 trillion, start multiple wars with outcomes that don’t matter to the USA, destroy jobs for citizens, tax citizens to pay “benefits” for illegals, and engage in third world banana republic legal attacks on opposition parties….
… but Mish wants to bicker over the minutia of worthless political propaganda?
Assuming 77 year old Trump is our next president, the culture of Washington DC is one of utter contempt for “the deplorables” — who are everyone who doesn’t sig heil!! and parrot what Washington tells them to think. Trump (or RFK jr or whomever) must eliminate at least a million federal bureaucrat positions if Washington is to retain any credibility at all.
Who the f#ck cares about your government propaganda?
Yeah, yeah… Obey the marxist PR or Mish will delete my comment. That worked so well for facebook and old twitter and the former soviet union. I’m sure it will be different when Mish does it.
Not sure why you’re more riled up than a caged coon getting poked at, but what is a pile of end trails?
Off his meds again. His caregiver will catch him and get him sorted out.
I assume he means entrails, he just spells it like it’s always sounded to him. No book learning.
Mish got upset at me (in comments for an earlier post) when I said he was reading the entrails of a dead deer in an attempt to devine the state of the economy. I also compared analysing the official statistics having the same validity as astrology- but not as entertaining as astrology.
A bankrupt government, filled with corrupt bureaucrats and led by a gerontocracy is not going to change if payrolls are up or down 50K never mind 20K. Trying to analyse these numbers has the same validity as old neanderthals reading animal entrails to devine what mood the gods are in.
And right on queue, the marxist agitators “sky wizard” and “shamrockva” jumped in to agitate.
I’ve stopped caring what Mish thinks. A younger Mish would admit when he was on the wrong track; this retiree Mish acts like an extra 20K payroll would make any difference.
I’ll make fun of Mish and Biden until I get bored. Sooner or later, foreign creditors will cut off the credit spigot and it won’t matter. if the USA was still an economic power, we would be fixing actual economic problems (not all, but most of which are caused by really stupid government policies).
Its all crap now, the geezers have overstayed their welcome and smashed the Titanic into an iceberg. The lifeboats are gone. I don’t care if I call the captain a senile wet fart, and I definitely don’t care if it offends him.
Can I get cliff notes of this rant?
Ha ha
Its all crap now, the geezers have overstayed their welcome and smashed the Titanic into an iceberg. There is your executive summary.
+/- 20K jobs on a garbage government statistical report doesn’t matter, and nothing can be divined from over-analysing it.
PS — don’t trust spell checker to know “end trails” from “entrails”
You’re 100% right
I appreciate hearing your truths and they ring true and clear.
Well said
BUT?
Mish releases information very judiciously – your rant toward him fails to take into account – the world we live in is fascist dystopia, that exceeds anything you could ever conceive of. You have no idea what they do to people with large followings that turn the citizens against the system, as you want him to do.
99% of the influencers everyone watches, Tuckers etc. release the steam out of the kettle. They change nothing. They’re fake. If you do change minds you will find the boot stomping on your neck.
Buy a cheap box truck. Cover it with giant graphics, “9/11 was an inside job” “where are the dancing Israelis?” “Jews infiltrated congress” or whatever your truths are and detail all your grievances in color graphics – then mount a huge video monitor on the side and play videos of the US’s war crimes and dead Gaza children and then tour US cities and park it downtown in cities. Sit on a chair in front of your van below a sign that says, ask me why the the US is terrorist organization. Then tell people walking by in person, about your views.
You’ll find yourself bearing the brunt of a massive intimidation campaign including physical threats, 24/7 surveillance, crowd stalking, child porn downloaded onto your computer, financial interference, disruptions to your well being, blocked emails and phone calls, threats to your family and maybe even killed and this intimidation won’t end until your dead (as it was with the East German Stasi. Why is that? Marcus Wolfe an architect of the East German Stasi was brought here to help architect Homeland Security.
I was in Mulilteo WA recently, (the main facilities for Boeing) a few days after they killed the whistleblowers. Everyone there knew they were murdered. A cloud of paranoia hung in the air. Boeing is one of the MIC sacred cows.
That’s the word we live in.
Much of what Mish thinks, he can’t say, he can only say it rhetorically or as a question.
I can’t afford to work.
This administration has been painting the tape with ~1.3mil new govt hires since Feb 2022.
For those who say no interest rate cut based on data, the Bank of Canada and ECB already did. These clowns move like a herd.
Always for the children.
That works great for my summer travel plans. A strong dollar will buy more in the EU, will be heading out in a few weeks…..$…..$
We talked about this in another thread.
Canada has to cut because they don’t have 15-30 year mortgages locked in at 2.5%. They are all 5 year mortgages or variable rate ones. Many are now coming due at 7% and the sticker shock (esp with Canada’s housing market even more heated than the US one) is making it politically unfeasible (Canadian mortgages are also full recourse) thus rates are being lowered or else Canada would be in deep shite.
Indeed, deep shite is what is needed to give some financial sanity back to the housing market. But as I said, lunatics are in change of the asylum.
A house located in a socialist, borderline marxist, shithole like Canada is worth one month’s rent and not a penny more.
Canada needs to evict its effeminate hair piece PM, reverse his marxist edicts, and get back to the slowly dying socialist economy they used to have. This marxist regime is unfixable. It doesn’t matter what interest rates are.
Canada needs to get rid of Trudeau first and foremost. Its a people problem, its a leadership problem.
You can’t fix bad leadership by tweaking interest rates.
(yes, we have the same problem in the USA, and cutting interest rates won’t fix anything here either)
Agreed 100% that Trudeau is the problem and has been for several years.
But Trudeau is pressuring for the interest rate reduction to save his failing ratings (if you think Biden’s are bad, check his out). That and calling the opposition Nazi’s are all he has left.
Ultimately though Canada does have to do something though because it’s between a rock and a hard place on over priced homes and high interest rates. If the rates stay high, a lot of mortgages will not be renewed which will mean evictions and political unrest. The alternative is lowered rates which means capital flight of money to the US for higher interest which means Canadian dollar crashes and everything gets a lot more expensive (though at least Canada would be marginally more competitive due to the falling dollar).
GDPNow soars another 50 basis points to 3.1%.
yawn. These are not recessionary numbers. Where is my recession ~!@!#$%^&*(
All government data is delusional fiction.
Then read the 10Qs of all public companies. They will mirror most of that delusional fiction. /s
Stop poking holes in his delusional fiction.
I’ve noticed a lot of comments that are anti-govt get more downvotes lately. Like the last time things started to go to hell.
You’ve drawn the attention of the Lizard People, Mr. Johnson.
ADP also shows jobs gains that do not look recessionary: https://adpemploymentreport.com/
How is my back of the envelop math?
Multiple job holders back to levels seen post-GFC. Y-O-Y increase from 4.8% to 5.2% (per FRED). 161.083 million employed. A minimum of 644k jobs added over the last year have been more people getting a second, or third, or nth, job.
I know of more than a few who are working multiple jobs to make ends meet.
Oddly, I know some who are working multiple jobs to get rich and not just make ends meet. This is turning into common practice in the work from home technology world. None of the employers even care as long the work gets done.
Lies, Damned Lies and Government “Sadistics”
With the backdrop of illegal immigration, every bit of this makes perfect sense, including why no one is discussing it.
Peak Boomer retirement together with massive illegal immigration has made a mess of the statistics.
I don’t really blame incompetence or malice. The statistical system wasn’t built for this.
If it were random, one would expect some misses to the upside and the downside.
When all we see are “mistakes” to the upside, that is incompetence or fraud.
Given the federal bureaucracy has been caught lying again and again and again, and their senile leader was 100% corrupt before his brain turned to pudding — its not incompetence, its fraud
How do illegal immigrants affect it?
Without an SSN, they aren’t counted (as working or unemployed) and businesses would not dare report them as workers because they’d also then have to pay business taxes on those workers (which is why they hire illegals in the first place) and face serious investigations.
Mish explained it quite clearly… Migrant (social) Services & “Education”.
Thousands of useless progressives are now getting (NGO & government) paychecks to “assist” the new arrivals… everything from “security” to food service to language lessons to healthcare to transportation, etc., etc.
Millions of unemployable, illegal immigrants have to be housed, fed, shuttled, represented @ court… this 3+year Open Borders debacle has generated millions of “babysitting” jobs for useless liberal arts grads who will vote straight-ticket Democrat.
We should note that many of these Migrant Services, etc. jobs were staffed & ready the moment Biden was inaugurated… IOW, this invasion had been planned for YEARS.
And the brain-dead pre-programmed knee-jerk AI algobots immediately crash gold by $50 and silver by $1.60. How can the precious metals be more sensitive to interest rates than interest rate instruments themselves?
$50 is 2% of the gold price. Hardly a crash. A twitch I’ll grant you.
2% in a matter of minutes is a crash, for short-term traders.
China stopped buying gold in may, announced overnight. That’s what crashed gold.
Just what the fed needs to increase rates.
Exactly.
The job numbers are essentially meaningless but the wage increase coming in hot tells me we aren’t getting any rate cut anytime soon.
The Fed will be looking at the polls and the election. Inflation isn’t a problem for the fed as it is the only way to manage government debt. Rate cuts are coming, inflation will continue and in all likelihood, the numbers will be adjusted to make this look reasonable.
The government paid $700 billion in fiscal 2023 as interest on the debt. This year, the number is expected to be in the $1 TRILLION range.
This is the real driver for the FED’s repeated attempts to find a justification to cut its interest rate peg.
Massive debtors have to pay whatever the loan shark tells them to pay. The fed doesn’t control interest rates anymore.
They control the rates that affect my cd rates.
You are lending your hard earned money at AAA rates to a single B (or worse) credit risk. That’s not very smart. You are trying to blame the fed for taking advantage of your poor credit risk skills.
Since you are willing to lend to single B borrowers, you should be able to do **much** better than what the fed is offering.
If you believe CD rates are actually “risk free”, perhaps you should look into withdrawing your money as cash and setting it on fire. Be careful to tell DAs in GA or NY state that you are democrat or else you will be prosecuted.
The fed takes advantage of you because they know you won’t speak up.
Show me the FICA tax receipts. Disregard the B.S.
FICA receipts are volatile (I presume because of lags due to required timelines for businesses to pay. Some months/quarters, payments come in early others late.). How do you glean anything from them? I’ve tried but didn’t see anything useful.
Any data smoothing algorithm will present an accurate representation of the data. Government massaged and manipulated data is worthless.
Come on … are you really surprised that It doesn’t make sense, but then why would it it’s produced by the government ….
I don’t think you can trust any information that’s put out for free. There is always an angle.
Mish, Biden ultimately supervises the Dept of Labor. Biden is also running for re-election. It’s called “conflict of interest.” And while he isnt a baby boomer, people over 65 seem to have the biggest problem with conflict of interest. “I would never make a decision that might enrich me! I would only make a decision that would benefit the country!! And Im insulted that you might think differently!!!!!!’ The people around him want him happy and will generate whatever numbers his appointees want.
He doesn’t even know where he is. Who is in charge is the real question
He has 5000+ political appointees (he selected them all, except the jerk running the Post Office) that run the departments and agencies of the Federal govt. He carried most of them over from Obama, they are in their 50s and 60s and are at least pretty good at keeping day to day life going.
Is this supposed to make me feel better? He’s in charge.
Yep he’s in charge. And if Trump returns, he will pick all his 5000+ people too … and who knows how many are waiting under rocks right now … their brownshirts all cleaned and pressed. 🙂
You can’t possibly believe that there are a bunch of paleocon Austrian economics believers (aka “brownshirts” to you) waiting to be hired by the Evil Orange Man. That’s why any comments about “Trump’s DOJ” “Trump’s FBI” are inane. You could count on one hand the number of people within 100 miles of DC who are in alignment with the philosophy Trump espoused in his 2016 campaign. That’s why he had to staff his administration with swampers and neocons. He couldn’t make Pat Buchanan Secretary of Everything. There certainly aren’t thousands of waiting appointees to enact Trump’s will. DC Republicans are mostly of the Knizinger/Cheney variety.
5000 huh. Rookie numbers. The IRS is hiring 87,000 enforcers.
I think the Heritage Found. is planning on selecting Trump’s civil servants. I believe they’re conducting interviews/training right now.
We can only hope. The Federalist Society did a great job with the federal judges and Supreme Court.
He does not pick all 5000 himself. If he named 15 a day it would take 365 days (1 year) to name just over 5000 people.
In reality, he names a handful of party members to a few key positions. Then the rest are auto staffed with party members.
I agree. Trump pretty much had to align with the Repub party or he wouldnt have anybody “pre-approved” to run the State Dept, etc.
He’s running against a guy that gave his kids high level staff positions, and one of those kids got 2 billion from the Saudis not too long after his dad got run out of office.
He’ll do it again.
So on the lesser of evils scale for ‘conflict of interest’, Biden wins.
Furthermore, your candidate sucks by any measure than “I vote for him because I’m mad, and I want to inflict this awful person on the people I’ve decided to be mad at.”
Team Tantrum.
He will lose, he will lose badly, and tantrums will ensue. Nothing of consequence will change.
I hope that Trump loses also but would like to see all of Congress go Republican as a counterbalance.
They ain’t cuttin