Expect a surge in groups classified as “far right” in the European Parliament elections June 6-9. In France, Macron’s party will get pummeled as will the Greens everywhere.
European Parliament Overview
Politico comments How to Watch the European Election Like a Pro
The European Parliament election kicks off on Thursday — have you heard? — and lasts until Sunday evening, when preliminary results will show what the European Union’s politics will look like for the coming five years.
With votes taking place in 27 countries and politicians from some 200 parties across Europe up for election, you’re forgiven if you miss a beat.
Some 373 million Europeans are eligible to vote. They will elect 720 representatives. That’s 15 more than last time, but less than the 751 MEPs who were in the Parliament before Brexit.
Country-by-Country Guide
EuroNews provides a Country-by-Country Guide to the elections.
From 6 to 9 June, around 373 million eligible voters in the European Union will elect 720 new members to the European Parliament in the biggest transnational poll in history.
But the vote is likely to be profoundly shaped by domestic issues, despite the EU’s increasingly visible role in addressing common challenges such as security, defence, climate change, cost of living and migration.
The ballot is also set to take the political temperature across the bloc’s 27 countries at a critical juncture for Europe, with far-right forces on the rise while centrist parties see support stagnating in many parts of the continent.
France: Far-right sensation Bardella poised to crush Macron’s liberals
Marine Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, has been front and centre of the campaign in France. The rising star is set to scoop up around a third of the French vote and deliver a historic victory for the far-right National Rally.
With a sharp social media strategy and polished performances in electoral debates, Bardella has tried to use his campaign to prepare the ground for what will likely be Le Pen’s last bid to become president in the upcoming 2027 vote.
It means a headache for President Emmanuel Macron’s and his liberal Renaissance party, which has progressively plummeted in the polls and could even finish third if socialist wildcard Raphaël Glucksmann sees a last-minute uptick in support.
Spain: Political debate deeply polarised amid amnesty and corruption rows
Less than seven months after he clinched a second term as Spain’s prime minister by striking a controversial amnesty deal with Catalan separatists, Pedro Sánchez’s socialists are trailing five seats behind the centre-right opposition according to Euronews’ Super Poll.
The far-right Vox party is on track to make small gains, with some polls predicting that another far-right challenger party, The Party’s Over (Se Acabó la Fiesta), could enter the European Parliament for the first time.
Italy: Giorgia Meloni eyes big gains at the expense of coalition partners
In a highly tactical move, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni is the only EU leader who has chosen to lead an electoral list as she aims to convert her domestic support into a strong outcome for her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party.
Under the campaign slogan ‘Con Giorgia, l’Italia cambia l’Europa’ (With Giorgia, Italy changes Europe), FdI is topping the Italian poll and is could secure an impressive 23 seats.
But the surge comes at the expense of Meloni’s governing partners in Rome: Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party is set to be the biggest loser of the night in Italy. After finishing first in the last EU election in 2019, Salvini’s party could come in fourth or even fifth this time.
The result could not only consolidate Meloni’s domestic power, but also cast her as the kingmaker in Brussels. She’s being courted by outgoing European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on the centre-right, who’s coveting Meloni’s support to secure a second term, as well as France’s Marine Le Pen on the far-right, who wants her backing to merge far-right powers to create a supergroup in the European Parliament.
Germany: Ruling coalition under pressure
As in many countries, the vote in Germany is being framed as a referendum on the country’s three-way ruling coalition of socialists, liberals and greens. All ruling parties could see their support stagnate or dip, with the Greens set to take the hardest hit as security and migration overtake climate among voters’ concerns.
The centre-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) stands head and shoulder above other contenders.
Further to the right, the embattled Alternative for Germany (AfD) is also set to see support rise, although much less than predicted earlier this year. The party’s lead candidate Maximilan Krah has been embroiled in an investigation into Chinese and Russian interference, and was recently banned from campaigning after making Nazi comments in the media. It prompted the AfD’s expulsion from its family in the European Parliament.
The anti-immigration far-left Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party is also set to enter the European Parliament for the first time with as many as seven seats, as anti-migration AfD voters find a new political home on the extreme left.
Belgium: Far-right Flemish separatists set to deepen divides
The European election in Belgium will no doubt be overshadowed by simultaneous federal and regional elections considered pivotal for the future of the country.
The far-right Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party – which is openly advocating for Flanders’ secession and the division of the Belgian state – is currently predicted to win around 27% of the Flemish vote.
Vlaams Belang has been cordoned off in the past for its extreme stances, but the surge in its popularity will make the convention hard to uphold, particularly in Flanders.
A strong performance for Vlaams in the EU ballot will meanwhile bolster Europe’s hard-right camp. The party is calling for a fundamental reform of the European Union by watering down EU powers coincidentally concentrated in the Belgian capital of Brussels.
The article covers more countries but I will stop there to discuss an important question:
What Is the Far Right?
It is hard to say. In Poland it means support for Ukraine, except as applies to agricultural imports. Poland, Left and Right is hopping mad at grain imports from Ukraine hammering crop prices.
In France, Marine Le Pen has surged after dropping her plan to abandon the Euro. Nonetheless mainstream media still labels her Far Right because of her anti-immigration policies and because she does not support Ukraine.
El Pais has an interesting article in English, Marine Le Pen: ‘If Russia wins the war, it will be catastrophic… if Ukraine wins, it will mean WWIII has been unleashed’
In Italy, prime minister Giorgia Meloni is considered by many to be far right simply because of her anti-immigration stance.
I find it interesting that EuroNews labels Ursula von der Leyen “center right” despite the fact she currently wears a Green climate flag every day, figuratively speaking.
If she is center-right, it’s no wonder everything else looks far right. But it’s not just EuroNews with these labels. All US mainstream media likes to promote everything that isn’t Left as Far Right.
A Surge for the Far Right?
Yep, it’s coming, as labeled. But generally, only two things tie the Far Right together: immigration and anti-greenness.
Otherwise politics is local. So is Euroscepticism. Le Pen turned towards the center on that issue without going overboard like Meloni.
Can a coalition of the right plus the far right knock off Ursula von der Leyen?
From where I sit, I hope to say “Good Riddance”, but I doubt that happens. The far right won’t be a majority, but they will gain enough power to influence decisions.
Ursula will do whatever it takes to buy votes to stay in power. It’s the same in the US.
If she hangs onto power, expect Green policies to be watered down with a focus shift on China instead.
The election is underway. We will have results early next week.
For each action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Generally, the party in the White House loses seats in the following congressional election. Mass immigration policy and government imposed climate restrictions, such as against farmers in the Netherlands, are causing a reaction in the European populace.
Macron is a bug on the windshield of democracy.
Le Pen, imo, should have won the last election she ran in France. France was about where we were at in 2021. The same strangle hold of the MSM in the EU, as was and still is, in the U.S. is in play. I call them the “Modern Day Brownshirts” and unlike in the U.S. in the EU they simply just don’t have the pushback we have here in the U.S. They also don’t have the independent media and podcast attention we have, which will be paramount, if we are to get past this attempt at dictatorship here imo.
While the EU has much more to overcome, in the way of messaging, they do have, and continue to have a large groundswell within the populous that has not given up, and are getting larger by the day, but it’s being downplayed by the MSM. And EU Talking Heads (think “The View” but 24/7 in the EU). I see them getting their 2016 moment this year perhaps, but if not, the decay, rot and stench of the EU in its entirety, will be enough to finally overthrow the villains in their mist as soon as possible, and may not wait for their next election, if they miss out on this one by chance imo…
I couldn’t agree more, that the vote is likely to be shaped by domestic issues. While the EU’s increasingly skirts the Primary Issues to the Voters, and keeps addressing common challenges that people deal with on a personal issue based on their own beliefs, and don’t need Daddy EU in their face! The Common EU Member cares about such things as True Security, of which they have None, Defense in which they are Lacking, Climate Change, which is a ruse in the way the EU discusses it. And of course Cost of Living, with Inflation is waning and migration, with Open Borders, is really pissing off the Citizens of these Countries! They are begging for change, and nobody in charge is listening, as the $B in personal gain, are blocking there ability to hear them…
Wouldn’t is just be absolutely Beautiful, if the EU & US went Conservative in their approaches to Life at the same time!!! We would have 1/2 the EU along side 3/4 of the USAll on the Same Page Instantly!!!
Gold is one of the three best conductors of electricity, and the only one that does not tarnish or corrode. However, government money, based on debt, is a competitor. How can the government compete with an element on the Periodic Chart? The only way is to short gold using their ‘created from thin air’ money. So, every once and a while they do it in a big way to frighten the doubters of their power.
Why did you leave out the UK? Real elections (not meaningless EU elections) will happen on July 4. Labor will win for sure, but that’s not all of the disaster awaiting the Conservatives. It is very likely that party will be lucky to hang on to half its seats in Parliament. Nigel Farage has returned, and the Reform Party is looking to pick up a bunch of seats (I don’t regard Reform as “far right” but that’s how it will be characterized). It could possibly be as bad as the wipe out of Canada’s Conservatives (and Kim Campbell) in 1993. In that one the Conservatives were left with 2 seats in the Canadian Parliament.
Great question but I assume since Brexit finally happened that it’s all peaches and cream, rainbows & unicorns, and endless happiness and celebration in the UK these days.
The only thing I see getting crushed today is gold, down 3.5%. Did you gold bugs cash out? If not, when will you get out? Inquiring minds want to know.
is gold crushed if I paid $1,600 oz
Not yet but give it some time, that’s why I asked the question about when is a good time to get out?
YOU Said: “getting crushed today”
NOT: “not yet”
YOU Said: “Did you gold bugs cash out? If not, when will you get out?”
NOT: “when is a good time to get out?”
Either stand up for yourself, or stop making comments you say that YOU didn’t make, right after YOU made them… Stop being so Hypocritical…
if you bought gold at $2433 back in May then yes you are getting crushed. If you bought gold at $1600 then no you are not yet getting crushed. Pay attention to the context of the question and that will keep you from getting confused.
There is a big gap in the daily Gold chart between $2,240 – $2,250 that needs to be filled, so there is another $60 – $70 of pain to go. After that, expect the rally to resume.
Gold is a hedge and does well relative to most things like commodities and stocks in a more consistent manner. Unless you are buying NVIDIA the ultimate hype stock, I doubt many people are crying about their gold purchases. GLD is an ETF and prone to manipulation. You are better off with PHYS and CEF by Sprott metals. Gold will be subject to bond prices and rates. If the FED is allowed to lower rates gold will explode. Or in a deflationary event, gold and dollar will move up
Weird that people eventually get sick and tired of being lied to over and over again by progressive fabulists. Such poor theater.
The Europeans hated each other and fought each other for centuries. The US forced them to change their behavior after WWI and WWII. Europe and the US are glued together, but deep cracks appear. Reverse colonialism started in the early fifties. Eisenhower warned about it. The third world punished the colonialists, settled in and bent their will. A peaceful equilibrium will be found, otherwise it will be bloody. Europe will rot inside.
After the Nov election a ceasefire between Putin and Ukraine might be signed.
Only one enemy left. After a ceasefire between Bibi and Haniya Europe will invest in Jasa to keep the Palestinian away. Europe will absorb what they swallowed for decades since the fifties. What else can they do : Buchenwald ?
No ceasefire will be signed in November or anytime soon. The war will go to its conclusion and it will not happen while Putin is in power. That is the central overwhelming condition. You would have thought that most “journalists” would have figured that out by now.
You think the war could last another decade or more if Putin remains healthy?
It doesn’t seem like Ukraine will have enough bodies to last that long. The alternative is NATO troops and if that happens the conclusion is almost certainly nuclear.
Yes if necessary. The EU and various governments have said they are budgeting to support Ukraine for at least ten years. Read what they say. Will it go nuclear? Well Europe also has nuclear weapons and enough to destroy Russia. Honestly, what do you do with someone who says give me what I want or I go nuclear? After you give him what he wants do you seriously think he would stop there and not want more? To believe that would be the height of nativity.
Naivety I meant to write at the end of the last sentence.
Politico rarely gets American politics right so how can you expect them to get European politics right? Anyway, the voting takes on Sunday so only then we will see. Generally the number one worry is not economics but immigration. The second problem is Ukraine. Immigration is now the overwhelming concern. There are some that think it can still be handled and some think it is too late to do it peacefully. This vote will see which camp wins, the integrationists or the exclusionists. Two or more years ago the various parties on the right were pro-Russian for some mysterious reason on Ukraine. That was the default position. Then they mutated essentially because they have seen that the general population doesn’t like what Russia is doing nor do they like or trust Russians in general. That was a shock because for them, Russia was supposed to be a bulwark against Islamization even though Russia is allied with said Islamics. That contradiction was resolved by an ejection of Russia from possible “savior” to certain adversary when it comes to the immigration issue.
The result is a European Right that is anti-immigration and anti-Russian and that is new. It is an affirmation of European identity.
Europe must have an enemy in order to survive. They got two. During the cold
war they got one, the USSR, and that was good enough. Some commentators on this blog must have an enemy. without an enemy they cannot survive.
All peoples on Earth love Europe and Europeans and none want to see it humiliated and destroyed for whatever reason that they can invent and concoct? That would be something new and never before seen in the world.
There are two Politico organizations. The European arm, IMO, does much better reporting than the US:
https://www.politico.eu/
Macron was fighting the yellow shirts union workers. Macron increased the retirement age. Macron melted Jeff Immelt. Macron bought Ford. Germany and France expand their defense industry. France has been nuclear since the 1950’s. In 2022 Macron was elected for five years. He feeds the left in Hague, but he supports the center right, the large international banks and he doesn’t care about anything else. There is more police in Paris than in Tel-Aviv. After every terrorist attack he tightened his grip.
There is more army in Tel-Aviv than army in Paris.
I don’t know that Europe is ready for this big a change. I’m still cautiously optimistic and excited about JM in Argentina. He came into an absolute sh–storm … and things are better, but they are not good yet. 50% inflation sounds bad until you realize he inherited 200% inflation.
TBH … if these folks come in and clean things up (no guarantee of that) … the folks will want to go back to their unsustainable worldviews asap … we don’t seem to learn on items like socialism and Marxism.
Final thought, with some key European cities now over 50% Muslim immigrants … it will be interesting to see how that plays into it.
It’s going to take years for Argentina to be good. Possibly more than a decade. People want miracles today and when they don’t happen they aren’t patient enough to wait till tomorrow or next week. Argentina is on the right track and a few years from now it will be far more obvious.
I wish JM well and we will see if he succeeds. In Europe now the young are much more to the right than their elders. The leaders are mostly of the younger generation as opposed to the gerontocracy we see in the US.
Macron is 44, half of Biden and Trump’s age.
But his “wife” is almost Trump’s age.
Socialism failed at every attempt. Socialism always ends in fascism and dire poverty for all. Venezuela set the pace. Europe is nipping at Venezuela’s heels.
Socialism in Europe peaked around 2008.
Germany and Netherlands are engaged in a forced de-industrialization catastrophe, and they have been the economies that allowed the EU fraud to last this long.
Only an idiot wants to be captain of the hindenburg after the fire starts, which explains Macron’s position.
Europe is no longer a relevant factor in the global economy — and even if they get better leadership Europe will not be a relevant factor for at least another generation.
Europe has been coasting on past glory and German mercantilism (exports) to keep itself afloat for the last 20-30 years, and now its obvious the whole EU thing is as false as the soviet union was in the 1990s.
I couldn’t care less what Macron does or says. Even if he were a better leader (he is part of the problem), he has to play the cards that the EU has dealt.
Go ahead Mish — promote the marxist agitators and censor people to the right of your Chicago politics. You and Macron both think that’s how to win a debate
Very few US journalists cover Euro politics at all. I guess it’s like a quirky hobby for Mish, but I really appreciate his insights on it. Most interesting. .
‘A green climate flag.’
Idiots.
“That is, they’ll pretend to discover that not only is “Joe Biden” hopelessly senile, but, turns out, he’s been crooked all along! What a shock! We never suspected ‘til now! Such a seemingly well-intentioned, kindly, patriotic old man!
Stand by. It’s going to be a helluva month.”
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/time-to-jettison-the-animals/?
Biden was widely known all over Washington DC as the Senator from MBNA (a junk credit card issuer that failed and was taken over by Capital One). Biden’s corruption is a truism that Washington crooks try not to talk about more than they have to.
That such a crook was endorsed by the establishment says more about Washington DC than it does about Biden. The problem is that bribery, fraud, extortion and racketeering is standard modus operandi for 95% of Congress and 99% of the permanent bureaucracy — and arguably most of G7 governments.
Don’t know why Mish thinks Macron is in trouble but refuses to acknowlege that the entire G7 has a credibility deficit.
The problem is not just Macron is a fraud; its that Macron is very representative of all G7 governments including the Obama-Biden regime.
Trump is just a giant middle finger that we the people are shoving into the political establishments’ faces.
On D-Day Macron hopped all over the place, but today he dropped. Biden’s vertigo and brain fog scare the Ayatollah, Putin and Xi. When he is mad, when he mumbles, he scares the world. Hunter on crack with a gun scared whores.