A third Indiana poll has Donald Trump in the lead once again.
The latest poll is by You-Gov. It has Trump 40%, Cruz 35%, and Kasich 20%.
In the three relevant polls, Trump leads by +8, +5, and +6 percentage points over Ted Cruz.
Three Indiana Polls
The results of the latest poll has Trump’s odds of winning dropping in both Nate Silver’s “Polls Only” forecast and his “Secret Sauce” odds.
Silver’s Polls Only Projection
Silver’s Secret Sauce Projection
I can understand Trumps odds of success declining slightly in Silver’s “Poll Only” projection because Trump’s margin in the third poll was slightly smaller than the other two.
That said, three successive polls going Trump’s favor should have increased Silver’s confidence Trump would win. After all, repeated polls in national elections all showing Obama with small leads is precisely what led to Silver to call the states correctly.
In this case, Silver clearly believes polls by Fox News, You-Gov, and Public Opinion Strategies are not only biased in favor of Trump, but hugely so.
I don’t buy it, but we don’t know what is precisely in Silver’s secret sauce.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
