The Commerce Department revised March durable goods orders from +2.6 percent to +0.8 percent. Now it reports a 0.7 percent gain vs an expectation of -0.5 percent. 
Advance Durable Goods
- New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
- This followed a 0.8 percent March increase.
- Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
- Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged.
- Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion.
- This followed a 0.1 percent March increase.
- Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.
What Happened?
The Commerce Department made a massive revision to transportation orders.
There have been a lot of revisions lately, most of them very negative.
New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Dollars
I created some new charts today to show how misleading the reported data is.
New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Dollars
Adjusted for inflation, durable goods new order and shipments are at best going nowhere. Transportation orders are keeping everything afloat.
Durable Goods Real New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago
Real Orders and Shipments Year-Over-Year Key Points
- Year-Over-Year Real New orders are down four consecutive months
- Year-Over-Year Real Shipments are down 14 out of the last 16 months
Shipments are important because that’s what feeds GDP. And it hard for shipments to do well if new orders are plunging.
New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions
New Home Sales plunged. And the Census Department completely revised away last month’s fictional 8.8 percent rise.
For discussion, please see New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions
Second Big Revision
Here’s my headline from last month: New Home Sales Rise 8.8 Percent After 3.8 Percent Negative Revision
Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023
On April 24, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.
For discussion, please see Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too
Consistently large negative revisions are the hallmark of recessions.
I spoke with a good friend in the Gufl coast chain store area he has recently experienced his business falling off a cliff. The business numbers are at 2007 – 2008 recession levels and the worst recession levels comparing sales to the 7 of them dating back to 1973. Big ticket middle to high end new home interiors & remodel products. AKA the Lowes & H/D type customer. That’s where you find out the real economy. Altered reality # numbers being issued . Adjust accordingly.
This is all just a reversion to the mean. We are back the pre covid economy under Obama. Growth was capped by regulation. The thing is the Dems are embracing the wrong regulations that only drive up inflation. Biden would win the election in a landslide if regulated derivatives and reformed the FIRE economy. This would kill inflation.
RFK now polling in the double digits and pulling more votes away from both Trump and Biden. He may decide who “wins” this election.
Isn’t it funny (disgusting, actually) how every single economic chart shows how markets “knew” about the Covid recession many months before there were any reports of a bug going around China? Even bond yields somehow “knew” lol. How stupid do think we are? What stimulus trick do they have cooking for 2025? Mohammed Atta Jr. and friends?
“How stupid do think we are?”
Stupid enough to blindly “believe” there is ANY, even infinitesimally small, merit to central banking, income taxes and all the rest of progressive nonsense. Once someone is THAT stupid, he is stupid enough to fall for absolutely anything. And fall he will. Or, correct that: He has already.
The headline number always has to be very positive on the release date.. the business Channel dutifully reports that the number came in above expectations.. then revised lower the next month when nobody’s paying attention and they’re reporting the new better than expected month’s number.. wash rinse and repeat.. this game it’s so obvious manipulate the numbers make the administration look good.. In fairness they’ve all been doing it for years now..
Jean Claude Juncker ‘when it’s really bad you have to lie’
Only the US government would pay $17 billion for a simple random number generator.
Only a left wing nut job or a senile man who made his money soliciting bribes would suggest putting even more resources into government.
And only a government union member would believe this crap can continue long term
This is the White House and Main Stream Media trying to gaslight the American people before the election.
Look, the consumer is buckling. This balloon is floating on borrowed time. Strap in or get the strap on. Same as it ever was.
Are M1Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles etc. transportation? You betcha!
Sadly, I find it to be extremely difficult to swallow any government stats at this point in the Presidential election cycle. When bureaucrats are told that democracy hangs in the balance, and their boy in the White House needs their help to stave off dictatorship, they fudge numbers for Joe. But they can live with their consciences, because they can restate the truth down the line when it has less meaning. See, no harm done…
New military orders spillover to other sectors. It takes years to fill the backlog. F-35, F-15 and Apache squadrons take 10 years to produce, ex spare parts. Each plane costs over a hundred million. New orders replace old 10Y/ 20Y inventory. The old
is recycled at full prices.
negative revisions?
I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.
At what point do we consider those reporting/amplifying the original print as complicit in the fraud? Just asking the obvious question.
Economic numbers are meant to be revised to suit whatever point the person in question wants to prove. Lies, damned lies and government statistics haven’t changed for at least decades.
Durable Goods is not a great economic statistic. Its extremely variable and historically depended more on if Boeing sold some aircraft than anything else.
Right now I would suspect that arms purchases are accounting for a lot of the volatility. When congress authorizes shipments to one powder keg or another durable goods orders and shipment spike. When the military aid tap runs dry, durables fall.
Don’t worry, we still have 6 rate cuts remaining in 2024
link to finance.yahoo.com
Yes, 6 months ago (Dec ’23), we had 6 cuts planed; now we realize reduced inflation is only transitory. (ha!)
Freightwaves says things are slowly ticking negative in trucking and I mean slowly…
link to freightwaves.com
“Shippers are likely seeing their good times come to an end. “It’s one of those times where you’ve been having a pretty easy time of it,” Strickland said of shippers. “And in terms of transportation managers, any bad decision you make is almost easily covered up with the abundance of capacity.”
I haven’t checked the rail reports yet but it’s probably doing the same thing. Air travel is through the roof so perhaps more of that bifurcated economy we all know and love.
I’m in the manufacturing sector and we are seeing some of our customers slowing down. We had been overwhelmed with new orders and now we are eating our backlog. Might be through most of this by September. Have to see if new orders come in the fill the late Q3 and Q4 hole.
My business we stay ahead by laying-off keeping the backlog per employee constant!
Same for me in services. Catching up on last year’s backlog now but new and potential orders are drying up. And my sector benefits from bad government so I should be booming!
My sector is booming. Hardware for Data centers is booming thanks to AI.
Yea I remember the Y2K frenzy. It’s was all “booming.”
What came after was the real BOOMING
If Mohammed Atta Jr. is booked, and another WuFlu might seem too hard to pull off so soon, what will the 2025 bubble “savior” be? War is definitely it (it’s already fully underway after all). But probably something more “theatrical” will be needed…something that would green light stimulus checks again