I have been following Italian polls quite closely and I suspect the Eurozone nannycrats are doing the same. If so, they are about ready to puke.
The last three polls show support for Lega at 26%. 25%, and 27.5%. Meanwhile the Five Star Movement (M5S) has been in a tighter range of 29% to 30%.
ZeroHedge made this observation.
The ZH Tweet reflects a single poll that is a couple days old.
However, I would not be surprised in the least to find a 60% turnout for Lega and M5S.
Get Out the Vote
https://twitter.com/alessabocchi/status/1001560289320595458
The above Tweet by Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio will fire up the rank and file. Lega leader Matteo Salvini will do the same.
Brussels Fearmongering
Without a doubt, EMU (Eurozone) and EU officials will run a blistering fear mongering campaign in support of someone (anyone) else.
The irony of the tactic is the most likely party is Forza Italia led by Silvio Berlusconi, the very person the EMU forced out of office previously.
The EU backing Berlusconi will likely backfire.
https://twitter.com/PolandDaily/status/1001926598642290688
Sergio Mattarella’s Options
The vote isn’t today. It’s not even set.
There is a chance of a compromise. There is a chance Mattarella delays setting an election date. There is a chance Mattarella is impeached.
There is a chance fearmongering works.
That is precisely what the EMU, EU, and Mattarella are banking on.
But let me add a further chance.
The risk of such tactics is that when the vote is held, the anti-establishment vote will be 65% or higher.
I think Mattarella made a huge error in not letting this coalition take office.
Meanwhile there is no budget, and there will not be a budget as long as Italy sits in limbo.
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Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Lega is more rooted in highly productive northern part of Italy while M5S is more rooted in the south and in the neglected peripheries.
Lega is more explicit about a Quitaly as this would almost certainly be followed by a currency (the New Lira) depreciation. This would benefit the export-oriented manifacturing sector and any other sector with pricing power. Their electorate would benefit the most even in absolute terms.
In the case of pensioners, state employees etc. this would not be the case as the loss of purchasing power would be massive and the Reddito di Cittadinanza (a glorified unemployment subsidy proposed by M5S) would not be able to counterbalance that. I am not sure that the M5S clearly grasps these concepts but perhaps their leaders get the feeling and this is perhaps why they are less vocal about leaving the euro.
That is an excellent analysis Alessandro. The curiosity is that only Lega (at the moment) wants to exit. By M5S did at one time. If the public ever gets behind this – it will happen.
I agree with Mish that the two “populist” groups in a snap election can only increase their share of the vote, between 60% to 70% (depending on the outcome of the convoluted electoral mechanism).
The two would not be anti-euro per se or necessarily bent on leaving the single currency. However this outcome is implicit in their newly signed government program: such program can only be implemented by extra deficit financing of the order of 4% to 6%.
Clearly unacceptable by the EU – and unfeasible for a Country that does not print its own currency.
civil war is inevitable ,unless the massive dept is written (printed away)off,both Italy/spain will look like Syria by fall!