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At Least 12 Million Face Eviction as Moratorium Ends

The eviction moratorium ends July 31. Millions of households are behind with no confidence in making payments.
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Confidence in Ability to Pay Rent 2021-07-28

Note: In all charts "Total Renters" means individuals living in households that pay rent, not households. All other chart numbers are individuals.

See Addendums I and II for updates. 

With millions of renters at risk Biden Asks Congress to Extend Federal Eviction Moratorium

State and local governments have struggled to distribute $47 billion in federal money aimed at helping tenants who can’t pay rent because of the pandemic-triggered downturn, leaving many people at risk of being forced out of their homes when the moratorium expires.

Just $3 billion of the aid authorized by Congress in December and March had been delivered to landlords and tenants as of June 30, the Treasury Department said in a report last week. 

Meanwhile, many landlords have been squeezed because they have been unable to collect rent but remain on the hook for taxes, maintenance and other bills.

The moratorium, which originated from an executive order signed by then President Donald Trump last August, shields tenants who have missed monthly rent payments from being forced out of their homes if they declare financial hardship. They still owe the back rent.

The moratorium was originally set to expire Dec. 31, 2020, but Congress extended it until late January, and the CDC has extended the order three times.

in June, the Supreme Court rejected an emergency request to clear the way for evictions after the Biden administration said it would extend the moratorium for one final month. Justice Brett Kavanaugh voted with the 5-4 majority to keep the moratorium in place. However, he issued a one-paragraph concurrence saying he believed the moratorium was unlawful, but was willing to leave it in place for July. “In my view, clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary for the CDC to extend the moratorium past July 31,” he wrote.

Census Department Data

I created the lead chart from a Census Department Data Feed

Here are a few more charts. 

Confidence in Ability to Pay Mortgage 

Confidence in Ability to Pay Mortgage 2021-07-28

Note: In all charts "Total Homeowners" means total number of people living in owner occupied homes. All other chart numbers are individuals.

Mortgage Payment Status

Mortgage Payment Status 2021-07-28

Rent Payment Status

Rent Payment Status 2021-07-28

These numbers are way understated. 

Q: How do I know that?
A: Every chart is missing 72,166,927 individuals in which the Census Department does not have tenure data. 

The total is 50,922,215 living in rental households  + 127,127,307 living in owner occupied homes + 72,166,927 unknowns. 

Some of those unknowns are not current or in trouble even if they are current.

Four-Point Synopsis 

  • 7.43 million in rental properties are not current
  • 5.95 million owner occupied housing are not current
  • 8.71 million live in owner occupied homes where the homeowners have little or no confidence in ability to pay their mortgage
  • 12.71 million live in rental properties where the heads of household have little or no confidence in ability to pay their rent

Significant Other Details 

  • The above numbers are undoubtedly understated because the status of 72.17 million households is unknown.
  • Rent plus back rent is due August 1.
  • There will be no more rent moratoriums without Congressional action as per Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
  • On September 1, Federal unemployment benefits expire. 

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Addendum

The Census Bureau says there are 126.338 Million Households

I have a question into the census bureau as to whether the data download and charts reflect individuals or households.

Addendum II

I got a hold of the Census Dept on Friday, but the wrong person. I have another call in.

The person who did call back suggested the numbers likely reflect individuals not households. 

I changed the title of the article and the text above to reflect individuals instead of households. That is my base assumption now.

I believe I have a way of translating individuals to households that I need to confirm. Still, 12 million people at risk of eviction is a lot.

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