Why should any of them?
Contending with Mistrust on the Budget
The Wall Street Journal reports Mike Johnson Contends With Republican Mistrust in Dash to Pass Tax Bill
The relationship between Johnson and rank-and-file lawmakers will be crucial as Republicans look to pass extensions to expiring tax cuts as well as new breaks such as “no taxes on tips” while also pushing through cuts to Medicaid and food aid. Johnson has a razor-thin 220-213 majority in the chamber, and he will have to pass the party-line measure with no help from Democrats. He also will need to persuade House colleagues to get on board even as Senate Republicans could make major changes to the bill.
The tensions, which started in the restive conservative wing of the party last year, have now spread more broadly, according to more than 20 House Republicans who recounted episodes or experiences that have led them to be skeptical of what Johnson says. The complaints center on issues related to the current budget negotiations and past votes related to the bill, as well as other incidents involving the speaker and lawmakers.
A Johnson spokesman said Tuesday that the speaker “has been clear and transparent with members throughout the reconciliation process—that the savings in the House bill will meet or exceed the targets laid out by the House Republicans’ budget resolution passed back in February.” He said Johnson “is working around the clock to put a bill on the floor that does exactly that before Memorial Day.”
The House plan aims for at least $1.5 trillion in deficit reductions over a decade and allows $4 trillion in tax cuts.
The degree of frustration differs from member to member. The most critical said there is a clear-cut pattern of Johnson saying one thing and doing another. Others wondered whether he was making promises he knew he couldn’t keep or if they were a product of dealing with competing factions. And some questioned whether his efforts to please colleagues hurt his ability to deliver tough news. Members who put it most mildly described miscommunications or disconnects in what the speaker pledged.
“Lots of assurances were made when the [budget] framework passed, and now the chickens are coming home to roost, and the people who were given those assurances don’t feel like the assurances were kept,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.), one of Johnson’s loudest critics, who tried unsuccessfully to oust him as speaker last year.
“Overall, I am very disappointed in his leadership and his honesty,” said Rep. Max Miller (R., Ohio), another member who has repeatedly criticized Johnson.
The perceived assurances to moderates rankled conservatives, who have been trying to lock in deeper cuts. Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York moderate, told freshman Texas Rep. Brandon Gill that GOP leadership had told him that the $1.5 trillion in promised cuts would be less severe, according to two House Republicans familiar with the matter. Gill, who is part of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus pushing for that level of spending cuts at a minimum, raised the alarm with his fellow group members as well as with leadership. Johnson, confronted on the matter, said Lawler was taking his comments out of context, the two lawmakers familiar with the matter said.
Johnson’s Hypocrisy
This Johnson labels a monstrous increase in the deficit as budget “cuts”.
Recall that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted for passing a “clean continuation resolution”.
Johnson, McCarthy’s replacement, immediately passed three more clean resolutions and now is working on raising the debt ceiling and passing “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
These actions are worse than anything McCarthy did to get outed.
But that’s OK now because Trump is OK with it.
The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Senator Ron Johnson (R. WI) explains The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” that Congress is working on is certainly big, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Too often the reality of these budget debates get obscured in details, politically charged issues and demagoguery. Let me attempt to clarify the current discussion by focusing on the most important facts and numbers.
In fiscal 2019, federal outlays totaled $4.45 trillion, or 20.6% of gross domestic product. This year, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 projection, total outlays will be $7.03 trillion, or 23.3% of GDP. That’s a 58% increase over six years. The CBO projects federal outlays will total $89.3 trillion across fiscal 2026-35. Much of the blame goes to pandemic spending, but lockdowns are long over. There’s nothing now to justify this abnormal level of government spending. Pathetically, Congress is having a hard time agreeing on a reduction of even $1.5 trillion from that 10-year amount. That’s a 1.68% cut—a little more than a rounding error. My guess is that much of that minuscule decrease will be backloaded to the end of the 10 years for which Congress is now budgeting, increasing the probability those savings will never be realized.
Under every scenario now being considered, federal debt continues to skyrocket from its current level of almost $37 trillion. The CBO’s current projection adds around $22 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in total debt of approximately $59 trillion—134% of GDP—in 2035. That projection assumes an automatic tax increase will occur in 2026 when provisions of the 2017 tax cuts expire, increasing revenue from 17.1% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to an average of 18.1% over the next 10 years. With the CBO projecting 10-year GDP at $373 trillion, that 1% increase represents $3.7 trillion of additional revenue and lower debt.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
On May 12, I commented The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
Please note The GOP Surrenders on Medicaid
The House bill shrinks from a fight over able-bodied men on the dole.
The work requirement doesn’t kick in until 2029—a political lifetime from now. The bill also sets up a waiver process, which states have long abused to evade work rules in food stamps.
But far more notable is that the bill fails to end Medicaid’s outrageous bias toward prime-age men who can work. The feds pay 90% of the cost of able-bodied adults eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act—but only roughly 50% to 77% (depending on the state) for pregnant women, the blind and so on.
Republicans won’t even insist that able-bodied persons must work.
And people are bragging Trump will bring down inflation.
If this budget passes, there is no way inflation comes down other than a huge recession that destroys demand.
Long-duration treasury yields are up again today. The 30-yeay yield is 4.97 percent and the 10-year note yields 4.53 percent.
Budget and Deficit Common Sense from Rand Paul Gets Him Labeled a RINO
On May 11, I commented Budget and Deficit Common Sense from Rand Paul Gets Him Labeled a RINO
If you believe fiscal conservativeness is a Republican value, then Trump is the RINO, not Rand Paul.
Ominous Looking 10-Year and 30-Year US Treasury Yield Charts
On May 3, I commented Ominous Looking 10-Year and 30-Year US Treasury Yield Charts
The technical patterns on long-dated treasuries suggest rising yields. What about fundamentals?
Meanwhile, Trump demands a rate cut by the Fed. He fails to understand the Fed does not control the long end of the curve.
I Think Donald Trump Is a Charlatan
I Think The Republican Party is Party Of Pedophile
I Think Donald Trump Is run a Occult child sex trafficking at Mar-a-Lago
I Think Mike Johnson had links with the occult
Johnson is as trustworthy as the whims of his boss. Bonus points: the chief executive is not supposed to be the boss of the House speaker, at least in the ambit of the powers granted to Congress, which are the overwhelming majority of what we’ve been discussing around here. But Trump will give him a nice pat on the head.
“Too often the reality of these budget debates get obscured in details, politically charged issues and demagoguery.” The quote is basically pointing out that the bigger the bill the better the chances for shenanigans that do no good for the American citizen but benefit some special interest group. In my opinion the big, beautiful bill should be broken into small easy to understand pieces with no amendments of any kind to the context of the bill.
Actually, the Fed can control the long end via QE. I suspect this will be the end result of this inflation mania, with essentially slow motion hyperinflation occurring as a result and the US currency becoming like an EM one.
Mish any idea where we would be debt wise if we had the same tax brackets as in 1984.
You’d have to add back in all the tax shelters that existed then that have been outlawed. The answer is probably unknowable.
20 less corrupted is something
Johnson’s history inspires mistrust. Remember his pre-election promises to release all the J6 film footage? And to not send more loot to Ukraine? Those are both non-trivial broken promises.
The Republican Congress passing the Biden spending intact and no discussion of ending the “carried interest deduction” in the face of massive deficits and no will to cut anything…
One is left with the sense that the Federal govt has more in common with organized crime than differences.
No one should trust this congress as they all have their hands in the pie. Trump is not helping balance the budget at all with his widespread tax cuts and insane defense spending.
The real giant spenders started with Reagan and the Bush war mongers. I voted for Reagan but was amazed when Clinton cam in, balanced the budget and got the economy rolling and gas below a buck a gallon.
Obama inherited the housing crisis and tried to get healthcare fixed but blew it as he left the insurance industry in the middle – siphoning money out and mangling continuity of care for patients.
Trickle down economics does not work because the velocity of money slows to a crawl. Putting money in at the base of the economy stimulates activity tremendously because the velocity of money increases as lower income earners turn the money over many times – where it is taxed all the way back to the top of the income chain where it sits in equities or other investments.
Stay the fight and stimulate your local economy by buying locally grown foods and consumables!
Infrastructure investments and grid improvements stimulate the economy and make transportation far more efficient for locally produced goods or goods that are cheaper to manufacture and import.
Frosty is a real patriot
You must have missed the guns and butter under Johnson. It lead to Nixon closing the gold window in 1971.
Nothing works, as everything is cyclical. Otherwise, we would have a perpetual boom era. Something just seems to work for a period of time, then the cycle flips and it doesn’t work anymore.
I did miss that, but in amount of spending it was insignificant.
In scale, setting president and policy?
Perhaps not! 😉
Obama put the last nail in the coffin rendering the US medical-industrial complex collectivized in a corporate/fascist manner. His probable motive was to make a system so foul that everyone would cry for a totally socialist system. An equally bad choice.
Excellent analysis and this is the key reason I am hedged to the hilt on all my investments. Given the demographic situation, my gut tells me we’ll have huge inflation at some point over the next few years. My bet is around 2029 or soon thereafter.
But the cure for massive inflation is a deflationary collapse so that’s something to consider as well. Ultimately, over the next decade I think inflation will win because there is no easy way to fix the labor/demographic issue.
I’m still waiting on robots and Elon’s self-driving car. I bet Elon will be saying fully autonomous robots next every year for the next 10 years like the car.
The insurance industry eats roughly 35% of every dollar spent on healthcare through administrative costs and profits in the U.S.. Why do you thing the largest buildings in every city are insurance companies?
Single payor healthcare systems work far better and have unified healthcare records. Medical errors drop and overall costs are far lower. Physicians are not encumbered with insane insurance costs and can focus on the patient rather than trying to survive the insane maze of coding and reimbursement.
In Canada for instance someone that is 200 lbs can not get a knee replacement until they lose the excess weight so that the likelihood of success goes up and morbidity goes down.
Exactly . Should be up for national debate and put to a public vote
Our democratic republic has become a joke. It’s a joke all branches of our govt are lead by public elected officials living on and getting wealthy on corrupt election donations, in the real world known as bribes. This can only be stopped by the people, the elected officials will never do it.
Where in the constitution does it say that the federal government is responsible for the healthcare of poor people? This is not an enumerated power, so it belongs to the states. Hawley seems to oppose cuts both to entitlement spending and to defense spending. Tell you what. Don’t cut anything. Uncap the SALT deduction. Get rid of tariffs, because orange man bad. They are making other countries not like us. Don’t cut business taxes. Keep America uncompetitive. Do all that, and I would give us six months before either the 10 year treasury yield is 10% or higher, or the Fed is buying every Treasury security in existence. Either way, inflation will be God knows where, but much higher than it is now, and then will come the great unwinding.
The Preamble. “Promote the general welfare”, not saying I agree with what they’re doing, but that’s where it is.
Hah! Money for nothing disintegrates the general welfare, especially for the people who receive it. That is a poor reference.
How to promote the general welfare is a matter of prudential judgment.
See my comment above. The preamble doesn’t have the force of law, but the power to tax and spend is in Article 1, section 8.
It’s in the “tax and spend” clause of Article 1 section 8. Congress has the power to tax and to provide for the common defense and the general welfare. The “general welfare” has been interpreted to include transfer payments to specific individuals, not just general programs. So there you have it. Food stamps, medicaid, SSI (SSI is for very low income elderly or younger disabled people who don’t qualify for SSDI for some reason). (Regular Social security and SSDI disability don’t add to the deficit because under the SS law, only the amount collected in FICA taxes can be pad out to beneficiaries.)
Hawley: Big Medicaid cuts ‘morally wrong and politically suicidal’
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/12/congress/hawley-medicaid-cuts-warning-00341545
This is the utter dishonesty of the GOP. Trump claims Americans are getting gouged by Big Pharma. And they are! And Americans are gouged across the health care industry. So where are the savings by eliminating the gouging?
I believe those who closely follow American politics invariably go insane because American government is insane as it simply lies every day of the week yet acts like it is sincere.
His EO demanding lower Pharma prices can’t be enforced in any way. Congress needs to codify it into law. Good luck with that. But if they could do it, that would greatly lower healthcare costs for the government and individuals.
It does make me wonder what the United States would be if all this government spending were eliminated. Since most manufacturing is gone now, if the government money “tide” went out, would we just see a barren wasteland across America?
As you well know, the government doesn’t have any spending money – other than what it extracts. There are not enough taxpayers to fund the publics’ demands so debt follows. Until it doesn’t.
Live now, pay later. The system works as long as there are others to pay my unfunded expenses.
=SURE
NAMES PLEASE. and how they voted prev. budgets.. ESP BIDEN term!
it is just a THEATER.. SAME W/ debt hikes each 2 years !!
and yet usa people somehow fall for taht
=========
IT REMINDS ME END of 1980x IN USSR, I small was a kid, and yet remember all.
all those promises- food, good life, and cheap flat for every family!
jesus!!
alx
I did not meet anyone in mid 80s Soviet Union that believed any of it. Because it was literally falling apart. If you were a party functionary you faked it. Everyone else tried to keep their mouth shut about it.
GOP believes in fiscal sanity when they are out of power, then they have manufactured amnesia the whole time they are in power.
Nancy Pelosi said “Jump!”, and all the Dems scurrying under foot shouted, “How high!” But the Republicans are the so called authoritarians per the MSM. I guess the only question is, can you drain the swamp including wokeness, while at the same time cutting the budget? I would hope so, but pork is still pork. Lipstick on the pig.
Do you think that Separation of Powers, Due Process, and the Emoluments Clause are worth defending? Trump is trampling all three. You woke right babies need to grow up and act like adults.
I always thought Rosie O’Donnell carping about emoluments during the first term was silly. Now he’s being given a plane by some emir or sultan? WTAF?
Congress living down to its perptually-low (dis)approval rating. We need the long bond to continue to monkeyhammer their inability to rein in spending. Make those long rates much much higher. We need bond vigilantes! My Senator Johnson is spot on!
it worked before cause fed/usa gov did not intervene into markets! in 80- 90x
it is totally diff now. they cant afford this.
debt is 125% gdp
I don’t care about approval ratings, they don’t seem to mean much to politicians either, I care about action but we’ve vacillated between Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump the last 20 years and absolutely nothing has gotten better. You can extend that back 50 years and it’s the same thing.
I’m tired of this fight so I’m done.
Got exit strategy?
The real giant spenders started with Reagan and the Bush war mongers. I voted for Reagan but was amazed when Clinton balanced the budget and got the economy rolling and gas below a buck a gallon.
Obama inherited the housing crisis and tried to get healthcare fixed but blew it as he left the insurance industry in the middle siphoning money out and mangling continuity of care.
Trickle down economics does not work because the velocity of money slows to a crawl. Putting money in at the base of the economy stimulates activity tremendously because the velocity of money increases as lower income turn the money over many times – where it is taxed all the way back to the top of the income earners where it sits in equities or other investments.
Stay the fight!
Infrastructure investments and grid improvements can stimulate the economy and make transportation far more efficient for locally produced goods or goods that are cheaper to manufacture and import.
The real challenge is demographics. Until immigration reform is done or instant human cloning is available, it won’t matter.
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