“Meanwhile, someone please tell me how we are going to reduce dependence on China, avoid protectionism, and appease the Greens with their preposterous demands to eliminate electric vehicles by 2035.”
You are not going to reduce dependence on China. You are not going to avoid protectionism. You may appease the greens, though, but get clear about the demands: it’s eliminating ICE vehicles.
Eliminate faulty assumptions, and the question is easily answered.
Carl_R
1 year ago
Add weight to the obstacles facing wide scale adoption of EVs. A typical EV is 1-2500 pounds heavier than an equivalent car with an internal combustion engine. The recent collapse of a parking garage in NYC has brought this to the forefront. In an age where EVs are common, all parking garages will need to be re-evaluated to determine if they can handle the extra weight of newer EV cars. The added weight is also an indication that the road taxes paid by EV owners should be higher than the road taxes paid by cars with gas engines, because the EVs, being heavier, will do more damage to the roads.
oee
1 year ago
that is good number It took decades before the automobile became standard. Also, Red states are increasing registration fees to thwart the their adoptions. Why you do not print that? That is intering with your “free market” that does not exist.
Also, EVs are heavier and cause more wear on the road.
tractionengine
1 year ago
This might be a little picky but I don’t think the greens want to eliminate ice – they want to stop their manufacture by 2035. (Of course some would ban the use of fuel immediately). However, since when has the lack of a plan slowed a man on a mission? There’s a lot of money to be had by taking advantage of the scatter-gun approach but I can’t figure out how little old me can get my hands on some.
As for vehicle sales, they will plummet when they are all connected and driverless. (And don’t waste your time telling me it will “never happen”.) You finally won’t be allowed to endanger others by controlling a vehicle on public places and will thus not need to “own” a car when you can have one at your door in 2 minutes.
None of this matters though. Everyone wants their water from the same lake (the whole economy). The amount of water we want from the lake is ever-increasing along with the garbage we dump into it. Sure we manage to have more rain land in our lake (grow the economy) and pump up more groundwater (for now), but the levels keeps dropping. Either we take less water and pollute less, or find a way to increase the rainfall. I see no worthwhile effort or plan to do any of these – and I have no answer. Tell me where I’m wrong.
How will that be any different than using a car service like Uber now? Just because the car is driverless doesn’t mean the trip will be free.
PapaDave
1 year ago
I don’t care too much about “who” is going to buy EVs.
EV passenger vehicle sales will continue to climb but its going to take a few decades before the total number of EVs exceed the total number of ICE vehicles. That is true for the US and for most of the rest of the world (with exceptions such as Norway).Meanwhile, the number of ICE vehicles being used worldwide, continues to increase every year, and this will continue for the rest of this decade at least. For example, China is selling over 23 million vehicles a year and 78% of them are still ICE. India is at just 3.8 million (almost all ICE) but growing rapidly. The world as a whole sells close to 60 million vehicles each year, most of which are still ICE. Which means continued increase in demand for gasoline and diesel for the rest of this decade.Perhaps gas and diesel prices will eventually go high enough to reduce demand for ICE and increase demand for EVs. But its going to take time.
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Yet more evidence that,
a) when something becomes politicized, critical thinking stops on both sides.
b) education has become a form of progressive brainwashing
c) liberals live on the east and west coasts
d) when government is involved, there is little to no consideration of consequences
e) all of the above
Toutatis
1 year ago
I would be interested by an EV, but only to make short trips. So I would need another car, for the long trips. I would have then to compare prices (rent or buy the car for long trips ?). But I am sure than a unique gasoline car would be much less expensive.
The EV for long trips would be possible only if it would be possible to quickly change the batteries instead of charging them.
So for a 10 minute full charge of a 48kW battery you only need about a 600 ampere at 480 volt service.
Not your typical 100-200 amp 240 volt service.
Then there’s the 60kW and 70kw batteries.
But if you pay for it the electric company will install it.
8dots
1 year ago
A car is a cost center do (almost) nothing all day. To spend 100K on a car and the sun make no sense, especially if we are heading to
recession. If u like EV buy it at half price, when WTI will be half price. When TSLA, Ford and GM beg for new orders and the gov will give buyers 15K incentive, to save the car mfg, which are FULLY committed to EV instead of an option.
Jackula
1 year ago
Amazing how dumb Americans are. EV’s make a lot of sense in the Pacific northwest where hydroelectric power is cheap. Instead they are purchased along political lines…electric cars make sense from a lot of perspectives especially from an efficiency basis but it will take time to get the infrastructure in place to support them. The conversion will take some investment
The plan is for people to have solar installations. Obviously it won’t work for everyone, but it will take a load off the electric grid.
granite
1 year ago
I live on the Gulf Coast south of Houston. In the 30 years I’ve been here we’ve evacuated for hurricane threats 3 times. There will always be another. What will happen when a million people need to charge their vehicles all at the same time?
Well for one thing there’s tens of thousands of gas stations positioned based on the population.
For another thing a full “charge” of gas takes 5 minutes, not hours and hours while tethered to a meter.
phil
1 year ago
good topic, Mish. I don’t have the time to read all the comments to date.
that said, if I could have concocted the survey, I would have asked more questions like: Is your approach to run your ICE vehicle until you die, so you don’t have to make a choice?
TexasTim65
1 year ago
These 2 points:
Democrats (22%) are far more likely than both Republicans (1%) and independents (12%) to say they are seriously considering purchasing an EV. The majority of Democrats, 54%, say they may consider it in the future.
A substantial majority of Republicans, 71%, say they would not consider owning an electric vehicle.
essentially just say that rural people aren’t buying or considering electric and city people are.
That should not surprise anyone.
Mjs357
1 year ago
They are really expensive. But, in fact, seemingly more of inconvenience to cahrge, maintain, and the cost again for replacing batteries. They’re not very good looking, ppl are visual. Not enough ppl either care or got sucked into the Green machine and their fear-mongering of global warming. EVs are a nice idea, some find them cool to have like an accessory, and others believe they are saving the earf. I see none of the BRICS and their applicants are mandating nonsense like intolerant western Leftists. I wonder why…no I do not.
China has very strict mandates. EVs no longer cost more than equivalent ICE. The batteries last hundreds of thousands of miles. And they look the same. There’s no reason for them to look different.
I’ll buy some of that. Show me a Chinese mandate, corporation or government, that mirrors US mandates that reduce their freedom to choose what type of vehicle to own or buy.
XZBD
1 year ago
Perhaps if cars like the Aptera start being produced opinions will change. While it doesn’t solve all the problems, because of its exceedingly high efficiency, it does a lot to mitigate many of them. Its not going to replace your truck, but for commuting its going to be hard to beat. The average commuter will likely only have to charge once or twice a month. You can use their calculator to check what your estimated interval would be on the site: link to aptera.us.
Several years ago I was following this company out of India that made a car that ran on compressed air. A few companies like that. Were supposed to enter the U.S. market back in the Obama years. I wanted one. Never happened. Funny how we never hear about actually sustainable methods.
Note that the Aptera is not a “car”. Note that it has three wheels, not four. Since three wheels inherently reduces stability, and dramatically increases the chances of rollover, why would anyone do that? Simple. It avoids safety requirements, such as airbags, that add a lot of weight (and safety) to vehicles, as well as cost.
Webej
1 year ago
Meanwhile, someone please tell me how we are going to reduce dependence on China, avoid protectionism, and appease the Greens with their preposterous demands to eliminate electric vehicles by 2035
Easy. Austerity, poverty, collapse.
For most people the question is not how postpone the end of the world in 12 years, but how to survive until then.
It will be the best escape out of our debt and real pollution that we created in China, India, and many other places.
Then for our national safety we will outlaw gold bullion ownership and create a digital currency. If we are lucky enough we will be required to prove our identity with our right hand or forehead.
Don’t worry though, you will still be able to buy gold derivatives.
WW3 will go nuclear, so austerity will be the norm for the unfortunate survivors. Don’t worry though, the important people will live underground. Hopefully forever.
jimmym
1 year ago
I purchased a Mustang Mach E as a retirement present to myself and took delivery in November after waiting almost a year from my order date. I love the car, but consider it a toy for well off people. I didn’t even get the tax credit as my income last year was so high. I put solar panels on my home and office and so I bought the car since I can charge it for “free”. Then the city utility from which I receive power decided to screw their solar panel customers by unilaterally reneging on their contract and charging them retail rates for power used and low ball wholesale rates for power produced by panels and supplied to the system. (Approximately 11 cents per kilowatt used versus 3 cents per kilowatt supplied.) Many of the solar users are taking legal action against the city. Prices for the same car right now are significantly higher due to price increases in many components and systems. I am not sure that I would buy the same car today at the higher prices.
First, congrats on retiring. Second, what an awesome car.
I’m in the similar boat with solar and a Tesla. I’m in California and the governor’s utility commission all decided it would be in our best interest to change the rates like what’s happening to you. Tie that along with Mish’s last article to charge electricity based on how much you earn vs. how much you use, I’m certain the Gallup poll results will be inaccurate.
I love coming up with ways around the system. So, I suggest that your office/company pay for your solar at home because your office could use the carbon credits from your home. Make sure to write ESG on the check and receipt.
Next, I suggest you look into getting a battery and possible turning your solar to off-grid if your utility company wants to overcharge you for electricity. Next will be taxing you for production of electricity.
I don’t understand that proposal, as my electricity bill from PG&E (even without a working A/C) is usually 4x-6x the amount cited for the cost to the top earners. But I am frustrated with the change to net metering to anyone who does not yet have a working solar system – it basically requires a battery system, which more than doubles the cost of the solar system over its lifetime and is bad for the environment. But I am loving my plug-in hybrid, best of both worlds (even if I do not save any money on the electricity).
Well, duh. The same experience occurred in Australia. The reason is simple: solar generates during daylight. People use most energy during the dark hours. Energy pours into the grid during the daytime–without cost-effective storage. At night, power has to be generated by other more expensive means.
Well duh. I don’t know of anyone who uses more electricity when it’s dark – especially since for most of us, it’s lighter longer than it’s dark. Most of us sleep at night and do our work during the day.
During the winter, you might use more at night for heating.
babelthuap
1 year ago
There is a saying from a famous tycoon that It’s ok to put all your eggs in one basket. Just as long as you defend the basket. Right now the electric basket is nowhere near robust enough where it can be defended. We still need the oil and gas baskets for a long time, especially for natural disasters like a CAT 5 hurricane. When a storm like that approaches the grid is not only too weak to support that many EVs charging at the same time but the grid actually gets destroyed. No more charging anything. Now what? An all those EV’s that could not charge in time; gone with the wind. And what about backup generators for hospitals? Many will die without having oil and gas readily available. I have a couple of gas generators and stored fuel on hand at all times. I highly doubt gas generators will ever go away for this reason.
I suspect most critical infrastructure will use backup batteries. Prices drop every year. Gasoline stations won’t completely go away, but their numbers will go way down.
Right now, if the power goes out, gas stations can’t pump gas. So, how are EVs any worse off? At least with an EV, you might be able to charge off solar panels or a generator.
I’m not against EVs but I have lived through several major storms. There was no electricity for 5 days for the last one and not much sunlight either. It gets really really dark and cloudy outside before and after a major storm. Might get some charge but not enough to matter. As for gas stations not being able to pump people usually fill up before the storm and also store it in gas cans. I do believe though gas stations can pump with special gas generators if needed.
Cannot see your point – maybe me?Filling your tank of gas before the storm is like charging your car before the storm. When storm hits, electricity goes out and no way to fill either ICE or EV.
Can the grid handle it when everyone tops up their EV and home battery just before the storm?
KidHorn
1 year ago
EVs are coming no matter what anyone thinks. No car companies are doing R&D in ICE vehicles. EVs will be cheaper to produce, cheaper to own, and perform better then ICE vehicles. They’re already being heavily adopted in many parts of the world. Including China, the worlds largest car market. China is about to restrict emissions even more later this year which will be the kiss of death for many ICE vehicles. I predict in 2024, the majority of cars sold in China will be EVs. That’s > 10 million units.
Part of the problem with adoption in the US is car dealerships charging way over msrp. They can because demand is higher than supply. Try buying a Chevy bolt. if you can get one, you’ll likely pay 10%+ over msrp. The problem in the US is supply. Not demand. If we had the same buying options as the Chinese, sales would go way up.
We have 100+ years of building cars and trucks and we know what is available and we know what things cost when scaled up. We have very little experience with building electric cars and trucks — whats REALLY gonna happen when you have to build a million of them?
Agree. Around here there is a 14 mth wait list for every type of EV. Essentially impossible to buy one.
Cannot wait to purchase an EV so do not have to deal with driving to the gas station every week on commute home. Also sick of routine ICE maintenance (oil changes, spark plug replacements, etc…).
I want a car that just works – like my phone just works. Plug it in at night, and it is ready the next day.
Also it is crazy how we all think that pumping hydrocarbons at the gas station is normal.
In the oil business (the industry I work in) you need full PPE when working this closely with hydrocarbons – but we all do it at the gas station with no PPE.
Re: “I want a car that just works – like my phone just works. Plug it in at night, and it is ready the next day.”
Actually, the future may be exactly the opposite. EV’s may be used as the batteries to support the grid. Thus, you may need to charge your car during the daytime with solar energy, then use the batteries in your EV to power your house at night.
Back in the 1970’s, I often drove a Sebring-Vanguard Citicar. It used eight 6-Volt Marine Duty lead acid batteries as a power source, in series so it could provide a maximum of 48 volts to the “powerful” 6 HP electric motor. A single bad cell could disrupt that, so battery issues were not uncommon. The brushed electric motors gave off significant amounts of ozone, which destroys natural rubber (i.e. tires). It was just a given that that you would have to have to replace the batteries and tires at least once a year, and it was just considered to be the normal operating cost. On the other hand, electricity use was low, and there were no other common expenses. On the whole, cost was not the issue. Rather it was the limited range (“up to 50 miles”, i.e. 30 miles), limited speed (“up to 35 mph”, i.e. 30-32 mph on level ground), lack of traction in snow, lack of heat or AC, plus general comfort and safety issue.
Made of fiberglass, these last a very long time, and you still see them sold on Ebay (two so far this month).
Christoball
1 year ago
Starting tomorrow, only six EVs will still qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit. The
IRS list of electric vehicles that still qualify for the
full $7,500 federal tax credit are the Cadillac Lyriq,
Chevy Bolt, Chevy Bolt EUV, some Tesla Model 3 versions, some Tesla
Model Y versions and Ford F-150.
Electric vehicles mostly appeal to the freeloader class of society, and have little to do with the environment. I am sure sales will plummet.
EV Subsidies usually go to upper income bracket car owners, who generally drive cleaner eternal combustion engine cars anyway. If the concern was the environment instead of making wealthier people feel good about themselves, the subsidies would go to the poorest car owners to upgrade or fix their misfiring, oil leaking and burning high mileage jalopy.
One mandate that would really help is that when cars have an emissions code defect because of a failed sensor that the car would default to a clean burning limp mode that would still enable the car to work with reasonable lesser performance.
Regenerative braking and idle stop seem to be the most redeeming advancements in EV and Hybird vehicles. These could find there way into conventional vehicles at much lower costs.
Ev mandates are really just pressing the exhilarator pedal to the floor and heading straight for the cliff.
A “a clean burning limp mode” would not employ enough autoworkers.
Zardoz
1 year ago
If they aren’t already, electric cars will end up being a lot more long lived than ICE cars. Thousands fewer parts to break. The big thing is you really need a home charger to make it practical, and a lot of people can’t manage that. Sitting at a charging station SUCKS.
I got one for my wife because because she’s a drivin’ fool. 20k miles a year easy, and gas is usually $4 or more. So instead of 300 a month or so on gas, she spends about $35 on electric, and gets a ‘fancy’ car instead of a corolla… though Elon’s efforts to become King of the Incels have definitely tarnished that cachet.
I kept my old pickup for the country place, though. I put gas in it every 6 weeks or so. Might get an electric pickup in 10 years or so when this one dies, but for now it doesn’t make sense.
Everyone has a different set of parameters. It’ll take a while for everything to line up.
If they aren’t already, electric cars will end up being a lot more long lived than ICE cars. Thousands fewer parts to break.
Indeed but you can’t expect the illiterate to look past gas vs electric to make a sound judgement decision. No oil changes, no gas tax, lower overall maintenance…yeah sign me up if I needed a car but Uber works fine for me when I need to go somewhere.
Long term it won’t matter anyway when Exxon, Shell, etc decide to stop hauling fuel to the middle of nowhere rural areas and instead focus on city centers that are far more profitable. Ironically, i think rural areas will be forced to go electric before other areas once fuel hits $8/gallon in a few years.
Yes no gas tax for EVs, but soon enough your state will make you pay a road use tax! You’ll be required to send in your mileage by a connected device on your EV or by some other method.
If EV’s use the roads, they should pay a tax to help maintain the roads. Collecting a tax based on gas used was a simple method of spreading the costs of road maintenance, so long as all cars used gas.
There may be fewer parts that fail but those that do will be very expensive and require a specialist to fix. A few years ago an airbag sensor module failed and cost me about $900 to replace. EVs have very many more complicated sensors that can’t be fixed using simple DIY. Other bits like suspension will fail as with any other car, or any other parts subject to corrosion
This was for a diesel car. Yes, my point is if an airbag sensor module costs $900 to replace, EVs have much more complicated electronics which will cost even more if they fail.
if your wife is spending only $35 a month to charge her vehicle she’s not driving 20K miles a year or she’s getting free electric power someplace that won’t continue much longer. $35 a month doesn’t even run my pool pump for 6 hrs a day.
As for parts breaking, that’s true there are far fewer. But the downside is that the battery replacement cost looms in the future and it’s going to be on the order of 6-10K or more. Often more than the car is worth so if you want to keep your car 10+ years you have to budget for that massive battery replacement.
The other thing people are just finding out now is that even a minor fender bender is causing insurance companies to write off the EV. So if you don’t have replacement level insurance (which costs more insurance wise) you are going to get sticker shock there. The reason they are writing off the EVs even in fender benders is because of the fear of battery fire in the future and a possible lawsuit claim.
It’s dirt cheap at night. … something like 2-3 cents per KWH.
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Muh climate change! The only science involved in that whole debate is mass psychology and political science. While I do agree that pollution is a big problem, how are electric cars supposed to address that problem? The whole problem is just such a sack of strawmen that I can’t believe it’s a part of the national discourse. But the slaves love their misery so.
I’m still ticked off that they lied about New York City being underwater by 2012. Though I should probably be happy about it since they’d have all moved down here if it were to happen.
If it were not for Graft and Skimming, New York City would not even exist. We should be glad that there is a place in this world where those types of activities can concentrate.
And I am! I was just hoping for a tidal surge type of flooding. I know, wishful thinking….. Though I do wish they’d quit infecting the rest of the world with their nonsense. Wall Street has convinced Main Street to self-destruct. Which makes me think Main Street is kind of dense. But, that’s just me.
EVs will become much more attractive when the Liberals give one to anyone with a SNAP card.
ZZR600
1 year ago
The grid won’t cope. Overall energy use is about a third each for transport, industry and domestic. If you electrify your transport, you are effectively doubling electricity use. Will there ever be the generation capacity for this?
Energy usage is very low at night. Charging cars at night will increase overall load, but it will not double it. The capacity is already there, and by charging cars at night you will be able to basically keep similar capacity to what is there now, even if you triple electric car use.
If everyone has an EV though, that will require significantly more capacity. Smarter people than me will have to figure just how high.
Part of the plan is an increase in solar panel use. Prices keep dropping every year. There are solar films in development that can be applied to any surface. Even cars. So at some point it might be as simple as the car charges when in sunlight.
Obviously this will help certain homes and areas more than others.
Work out the calorific value of petrol and diesel used per year and convert that to the number of power stations necessary for the extra 100s of GW of generation needed. Maybe the USA with much larger land mass can cope, but it’s taken about 20 years to approve a single new nuclear reactor in the UK (that’s if it ever gets built). At peak, my household uses about 4kw, and that’s if I have the electric oven in. On slow charge, a 100kWh battery will require 10kW per hour for 10 hours. Or 20kw over 5 hours. Suddenly, my intermittent 4kw use is gone up to 14 for an extended period, or maybe 24kw. Should every household act the same, I doubt the local distribution grid could handle so much extra power down the cables
First, cut the calorific value of fuel in half… electrics powered by humongous generators are at least that much more efficient, end to end.
Second, the vast, vast majority of charging happens at night, when none of that other stuff is on, and power plants are ramped down or wasting the generated energy in a cooling pond.
I appreciate that you’re actually thinking about numbers though. I don’t know which one of us is correct… but my hunch is we’ll figure out how to get around any supply problems. A lot can be done if charging is centrally scheduled to manage loads, and that would be pretty easy to get going.
Power usage has been growing since the first power line was installed. I think we’ll figure something out.
Even assuming you can do all the charging at night, you still require the fuel, which will be predominantly gas, coal or nuclear. However I don’t see any new fossil fuel or nuclear being built. Renewable generation is often just replacing stations being shut down or planning to be shut down. Add to this, the UK wants to electrify industrial heat and power. So all energy use will one day have to be electric, meaning maybe doubling or tripling electrical generation capacity. I just don’t see it happening.
At some point the fossil fuel runs out. Burning it half as fast serves us better.
If they can make money off building power plants, plants will get built. I expect people will lose their distaste for nuclear when gas is 10 bucks a gallon.
I had just remembered that the electric companies here, North Florida, always offer to supply outside lights for rural homes. That way the country looks just like the city. Of course, it’s only being used at night, but that’s energy that could be stored for peak hours. And yes, that’s possible. And has been for a while.
And let’s not forget that, though all the experts, and anyone with a shred of commonsense, say we should decentralize our electric system, we are moving in the opposite direction. Just more random ranting about how stupid our entire situation has become.
laprez
1 year ago
Now this was good for a morning chuckle – “appease the Greens with their preposterous demands to eliminate electric vehicles by 2035.”
We’ve never had a free market economy. And you are forced to buy all of these things regardless of which wing of the uniparty you support. And you deserve it.
The reason demand outstrips supply is because they aren’t really making very many EV’s. If you only make 13000 F150 Lightning’s in a year it’s easy to get demand to exceed supply.
So waiting lists prove nothing.
klausmkl
1 year ago
Tesla was fined 2 million, for it misrepresented mileage in cold weather by 50%. Thats right , by 50% tesla over stated the mileage.
But, but, but… it’s an EV and will save the planet by starving plants of CO2.
dbannist
1 year ago
I am very pragmatic.
I will buy an EV if it makes economic sense to do so. It does not.
I buy only used cars with 100k on them. Typically I pay around 5k. There is no way I’m paying 50k for a Tesla. Even with completely free usage costs it wouldn’t make sense for me to buy an electric car.
Once it makes economic sense to buy one, I will buy one.
Cannot buy used cars for 5k$ around me. 10 yr old crap boxes with 100k miles go for 10+k$.
For 5k$ more can buy new.
FirstBlood
1 year ago
… as for EV’s .. having the choice to depend on China for EV, or combustion engine the Mid East.. I take Mid East every day! Besides, the EV is Not about the environment .. it’s about CONTROL. So… not in my lifetime .. FJB, Obama, and the hypocrisy 🇺🇸
8dots
1 year ago
The chart says : people in their Prime Age are likely to buy EV. The light green – might consider – dominate the charts. The groupthink says : yes we might.
PeterEV
1 year ago
Moved comment to reply to jivefive98.
PeterEV
1 year ago
I thought Republicans were supposed to be “conservative”. Knowing that we will be peaking in world oil production in the next ten years doesn’t seem to ring a bell that maybe we ought to start conserving our fossil fuels.
Electronic ignition and fuel injection were the best advancements for car tech since that time, especially in winter. Cars lasting longer because rust now is more of a decades long process, as opposed to 3 -5 years.
The world has supposedly been peaking in oil production in a few years as far back as 1861 ,18 months after Edwin Drake drilled for oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania in
Which climate change? The real climate change or the political one in which a neutral gas is responsible for everything bad unless the sun and the ocean are involved? Muh Science!
It’s because they drive trucks at a much higher rate. EV pickups aren’t as powerful and cost way too much right now. Give it a few years.
denker
1 year ago
Biden should lead by example. Electrify Air Force 1, the Beast and the helicopters he uses.
jivefive98
1 year ago
You need to frame the question differently — from: would you drive an electric car vs a gas car … to: would you drive an electric car or not drive at all? Is anyone wondering why Biden is pushing electric cars? Global warming? Heck no. Worldwide oil production has peaked (2005) and future oil/gasoline/diesel extraction/production is gonna cost a LOT more. They dont say that cause they dont want to rev up the population with the new reality. Look at gasoline prices since the big dip (on Thanksgiving) of 2014. Cheap frakked oil is done. Also cant frak without zero percent interest rates. Expensive gasoline and diesel in our lifetimes?? Never!
Conventional was the cheap stuff that we kings demand. Unconventional (wreck Alberta/freezing cold/super deep/impossible governments) is always gonna be available if we want to pay for it (and we dont). Worldwide “conventional” oil production has been flat since 2005.
Heating homes with coal and wood sounded great too, till you have to live with the grime and smog. Chicago then (look at the pics and how dark and dirty everything is — the CTA pics alone! ;)) and Chicago now are two different worlds.
EV passenger vehicle sales will continue to climb but its going to take a few decades before the total number of EVs exceed the total number of ICE vehicles. That is true for the US and for most of the rest of the world (with exceptions such as Norway).Meanwhile, the number of ICE vehicles being used worldwide, continues to increase every year, and this will continue for the rest of this decade at least. For example, China is selling over 23 million vehicles a year and 78% of them are still ICE. India is at just 3.8 million (almost all ICE) but growing rapidly. The world as a whole sells close to 60 million vehicles each year, most of which are still ICE. Which means continued increase in demand for gasoline and diesel for the rest of this decade.Perhaps gas and diesel prices will eventually go high enough to reduce demand for ICE and increase demand for EVs. But its going to take time.
These 2 points:
Democrats (22%) are far more likely than both Republicans (1%) and independents (12%) to say they are seriously considering purchasing an EV. The majority of Democrats, 54%, say they may consider it in the future.
A substantial majority of Republicans, 71%, say they would not consider owning an electric vehicle.
essentially just say that rural people aren’t buying or considering electric and city people are.
That should not surprise anyone.
Cannot see your point – maybe me?Filling your tank of gas before the storm is like charging your car before the storm. When storm hits, electricity goes out and no way to fill either ICE or EV.
IRS list of electric vehicles that still qualify for the
full $7,500 federal tax credit are the Cadillac Lyriq,
Chevy Bolt, Chevy Bolt EUV, some Tesla Model 3 versions, some Tesla
Model Y versions and Ford F-150.
Energy usage is very low at night. Charging cars at night will increase overall load, but it will not double it. The capacity is already there, and by charging cars at night you will be able to basically keep similar capacity to what is there now, even if you triple electric car use.
If everyone has an EV though, that will require significantly more capacity. Smarter people than me will have to figure just how high.
I will buy an EV if it makes economic sense to do so. It does not.
I buy only used cars with 100k on them. Typically I pay around 5k. There is no way I’m paying 50k for a Tesla. Even with completely free usage costs it wouldn’t make sense for me to buy an electric car.
Once it makes economic sense to buy one, I will buy one.
The world has supposedly been peaking in oil production in a few years as far back as 1861 ,18 months after Edwin Drake drilled for oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania in