Despite the plunge, one third of the top cryptocurrencies are still in the green from a week ago. Bitcoin itself is the biggest loser over the last seven days, down nearly a third in value.
Is the top in?
I don ‘t know, nor does anyone else. But if the top is in, a 90% decline from the top, or far more, is likely in the cards.
Someone has to get sucked in at the top. Was it you?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I think there are signs of a major pullback. Futures performance so far. The ‘chasing’ of lower price crypto. The failure to continue the weekend ramp up. Real questions on whether it is scalable and just how many crypto’s do we need?
I hope Kim gets crushed in the crash.
Maybe it is a good time to reread “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.
I’ll call a top in bitcoin on technical analysis. Bitcoin news was really buzzing in October through early December. News quieted down considerably heading into the top. Some articles by major mainstream investment groups were even negative it the top. One cryptocurreny CEO warned of a bubble and sold his coins. The price reversed and the chorus of buy the dip is muted while news becomes more cautious about buying bitcoin.
Leading up to the top, the price on a log-scale showed an exponential, so this is a highly unstable event. The Dow industrials looks like a straight line on a log-scale chart, and that means normal instability.
These moods are reflected in a sharp sell off followed by choppy sideways price movement that looks like classic Elliott wave triangle pattern. At this point the chart patterns are giving a high probability of another sell off below $10K beginning within days.
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/maven-user-photos/mishtalk/economics/lPPOm4zdx0CtfoItkc1-0w/RcW8_ZysXEK4e_8sl_xGiw
i would add, that it’s important to separate the technology (blockchain) from the application of the technology (bitcoin). Even if blockchain remains, that is no guarantee that bitcoin will.
Bitcoin is based off NSA technology (SHA-256). The NSA also published on article about crypto currencies in 1996. I wouldn’t say its anti-establishment. It might all be part of the plan.
Bitcoin has value so long as people believe it has value. If that should stop, it is just a file on a drive that ceases to have a purpose. Maybe it will have value forever. Maybe not.
It may be an ‘anti-establishment tool’ for the time being for black market activities, but once governments adopt the block-chain technology into their Fiat currencies, it will be another tool for The State.
Bitcoin has had at least a 30% “crash” every quarter since 2010. Why would the most recent “crash” be nothing more than another pullback? I don’t understand why you are so negative on crypto’s, when they are the ultimate anti-establishment tool, born out of the financial crisis, and meant to disintermediate the banksters and other inefficient enterprises.
Most people don’t understand the difference between money and currency, much less how Google and a smart phone works, or the semiconductors that are in most every electronic device. Does that mean you don’t use a credit card, or invest in Apple or Google. Thankfully, technological advancement does not depend on the masses to “get it”, and the blockchain will move forward as the next logical global currency no matter how ignorant some choose to remain. What I don’t understand is why would anyone outside of the establishment be against cyptos. What’s the alternative when the current system implodes?
would be great to see vwap’s for virtual coins so we can see how many thousands of dollars swing the value of hundreds of billions. from what i have seen, BTC trading breaks pretty well every stock exchange rule for price discovery ever invented. aving “circuit breakers” on futures does not excuse the underlying trading criminality.
BTFD!
ha ha, not me, maybe these guys have managed to pay back some national debt https://www.coindesk.com/bulgarian-government-sitting-3-billion-bitcoin/ i have some gold left in a civ2 game from 20 years ago, maybe i will offer those out. can someone please explain why a bitcoin and block chain are analgous? surely BTC (or any other virtual currency) is one of an infinite possible uses of blockchain technology and you don’t need bitcoin to develp a blockchain application?
The intrinsic value of a bitcoin arises only from an expectation that some other will agree it has value. There is no reason and no gain from holding it otherwise.
It’s a special kind of IQ test, with 100% accuracy: if you take it, you flunk.
“But if the top is in, a 90% decline from the top, or far more, is likely in the cards. ” Don’t bet either way.