Since I get accused of only reporting on Bitcoin when it’s crashing, let’s take a look from the middle of nowhere.
The SEC approved Bitcoin and other than a temporary spike that was immediately given back, approximately nothing happened.
Those predicting to the moon were wrong as were those predicting a big sell the news crash.
Bitcoin is in the middle of a consolidation zone with support at 42,000 and resistance at 45,000 then 47,000 then 49,000 which is the top of the breakout spike that failed.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
On a weekly chart, support is roughly 40,000. If that breaks then I expect a retest of the 36,000 to 37,000 level. And if that fails there is support at 30,000 then 25,000.
If there is a breakout above 49,000 then I suspect Bitcoin is headed to 65,000 if not 69,000.
A lot of people were quite sure one way or another heading into the SEC decision and I suppose it’s fitting nearly everyone was wrong.
What is Bitcoin and What is Money?
For a more fundamental view of things, please see my post A Maxi Debate: What is Bitcoin and What is Money?
I suggest Bitcoin is not money and never will be. Read my logic and see if you agree.
Meanwhile, I do not know where Bitcoin is headed, nor does anyone else. But if support or resistance levels break, the next targets are the lines in the above charts.
“I suggest Bitcoin is not money and never will be.”
Bitcoin is a long term store of value. It can be used as a medium of exchange. It is not used as a unit of account. It has some monetary properties, but not all of them. But so what? Who cares? Why argue about definitions? People who debate definitions miss the bigger picture.
Bitcoin is a borderless, transparent, fully audited, censorship-resistant, immutable, scarce, and (practically) non-confiscatable monetary reserve asset. That is all it ever needs to be! Earn your salary in fiat, pay your expenses in fiat, and put your long term savings in BTC. That’s what Bitcoin offers. If you are not interested, and prefer instead to “invest” in the legacy system, hoping to outbase the long term debasement of the currency, good luck to you!
The number of 180 degree reversals, by everyone from experts on down, will continue.
The number of those digging in, from the lowest level novices, will also continue.
Until someone has transferred thousands of dollars to a known recipient located halfway around the world, in 5 minutes, for 0.08, as I did nearly 8 years ago, they’ll simply never get it.
There’s also no need to try convincing people with absolutely no experience, credentials, knowledge, or, ability to learn, that they should be paying attention.
They’ll be wrong for the next decade, just as they have been for the past decade.
Bitcoin is a cult. Hopefully it goes to 0 and the MORONS drink the purple kool aid 🙂
You neglected to mention your qualifications.
Oh! You have a keyboard.
That’s a very low threshold you’re setting.
Here’s something more worthy of an article. Despite a $34 trillion deficit, both sides of Congress are looking for ways to spend more money and implement tax cuts. Sheese.
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Lawmakers announce bipartisan effort to enhance child tax credit, revive tax breaks for businesses
BY KEVIN FREKING
January 16, 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — The chairmen of the top tax policy committees in Congress announced a bipartisan agreement Tuesday to enhance the child tax credit and revive a variety of tax breaks for businesses, a combination designed to attract support from lawmakers of both political parties.
The roughly $78 billion in tax cuts would be paid for by more quickly ending a tax break Congress approved during the COVID-19 pandemic that encouraged businesses to keep employees on their payroll.
The agreement was announced by Sen. Ron Wyden, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Rep. Jason Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. The lawmakers have been negotiating for months on a tax package that would address an array of priorities before lawmakers turn their focus to election season.
…
https://apnews.com/article/congress-child-tax-credit-businesses-6bda34719ea22c7683e4335a21583e85
You cannot do technical analysis of something that doesn’t have any real world underpinning. The only thing you are analyzing is gamblers sentiment and who will be the biggest fool in attempting to put meaning to what the other fools are doing. Whew..
Technical analysis is exactly what you use when you have nothing but price action to look at. It’s fundamental analysis that is impossible without real world underpinning.
Technical analysis works over and over and over because people follow it.
Also for good reason.
Say you buy something at $80. It drop to $60. You say to yourself I will get to hell out if I can break even. If enough people are trapped in the same spot, they think that way. Other people understand how they react.
It becomes self-reinforcing.
Technical analysis provided good entry and exit points. That is the primary use not as a prediction mechanism per se. Buy at support, sell at resistance. If people do that the price reacts that way.
Mish, Is there anything I can read to understand technical analysis better. I’m having trouble understanding why you picked the resistance and support levels you did in your post.
It’s not 1 or zero.
The longer the period, the better the analysis.
Simple Fact
Bitcoin = NFT
non-fungible token
non=nothing
fungible= physically exists
token = abstract representation of something
carbon credits are the same thing
they finally are (created a way) of selling people Air
fun·gi·ble
adjectiveLAW
(of a product or commodity) replaceable by another identical item; mutually interchangeable.
“it is by no means the world’s only fungible commodity”
One of the tragedies of periods of economic stress is that people become vulnerable to get rick quick manias. Bitcoin thrives off this energy, it may as well be called FOMO-coin… it taps into deep-seated human fears and the fight-or-flight and dopamine systems.
Yes, now do toilet paper.
You turn good money into bitcoin,so there’s the rub good money turned to you know the rest.
I thought intially it would be a sell the news event. Move down to the 50-day or 10-week moving average line and then a slow grind higher after that. So far, a yawner.
A friend was mining Etherium. He converted that to Bitcoin and took his girlfriend to dinner. She didn’t believe it either. It’s money.
Did he pay the dinner in bitcoin? If not then you would say that bitcoin is an asset like a basket of potatoes but not money.
There will always be gambler’s in any asset (thing worth money) willing to go all in and roll the dice on a single roll. Sometimes it works out. Most of the time, it doesn’t.
He valued Ethereum and Bitcoin so highly that he preferred a consumable meal to either.
Off topic. 1st time unemployment jobless claims crashed to 187K.
Nice! More pressure on JPowell to put his big boy pants back on an be more hawkish.
Rate cuts in March. WHATEVER! NO WAY! Not outside of a black swan event.
ROTFLMAO!
“Bitcoin Technical Support and Resistance Levels, It’s Middle of Nowhere Now”
During WW1 it was called no mans land.
Beetcoin transfers wealth, pays unfulfilled promises and wages. In the war of independence unfulfilled promises were the New Orleans territory and the wild wild west, west of Ohio. In the civil war, the Indian territories. Lenin transferred aristocrats land to his serfs. In 2020 the Fed transferred wealth to the elderly, small businesses and shingle mums from peoples bank accounts, in tranches.