Bitcoin has a feeble bounce. Expect a deeper plunge. 
I have no personal interest in Bitcoin. I have never been long or short. And I admit I missed one of the biggest bull markets ever. Nonetheless, I like following the story of speculation on steroids.
The post today starts with technical failure. But the real story is about MSTR and also Trump’s pardon of convicted felons.
Technical Failure
Bitcoin took a big dive from over $126,000 to $80,000.
Bitcoin then bounced to about $93,000 where it has since died.
If Bitcoin fails at this level, there is support at $75, 000 then 55,000 then 49,000. If that fails then it’s 40,000 and 25,000.
Bitcoin Rout Picks Up Steam as Investors Fret Over a New ‘Crypto Winter’
The Wall Street Journal reports Bitcoin Rout Picks Up Steam as Investors Fret Over a New ‘Crypto Winter’
The rout in cryptocurrency is intensifying. Bitcoin tumbled more than 6% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since March.
The world’s largest digital currency traded at $85,468 as of 4 p.m. Eastern time in New York and is down more than 30% from a peak above $126,000 set in early October. The selloff has spilled into other digital coins, including ether and solana, and pulled down stocks tied to the crypto market such as exchange operator Coinbase Global COIN and Strategy MSTR, Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-accumulation company.
Saylor’s Strategy, the software company that pioneered the practice of selling corporate debt and stock to buy bitcoin, unveiled plans Monday that seemed to suggest a chill was in the air.
Strategy said it raised $1.44 billion through a stock sale to help ensure it can meet future dividend and debt-interest payments. The reserve should fund 12 to 24 months of its preferred-stock dividends. The company said it also bought 130 bitcoin in the past two weeks, bringing its total holding to 650,000, worth about $56 billion based on current prices.
What Is Saylor’s Strategy?
Michael Saylor’s strategy is to operate a “Bitcoin Treasury Company” (formerly MicroStrategy) by accumulating and holding large amounts of Bitcoin, funded through a mix of issuing debt and selling equity. The goal is to use this massive Bitcoin holding to generate value for shareholders through its equity offering and newly created “digital credit” products that reduce volatility and provide returns.
Saylor’s strategy relies on issuing convertible debt and selling company stock to fund Bitcoin purchases, making it a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
If you think that is reckless or crazy, so do I.
Will Michael Saylor Do the Unthinkable?
Yahoo!Finance reports Will Michael Saylor Do the Unthinkable? MSTR CEO Says Bitcoin Sales Are Possible
For half a decade, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — still “MicroStrategy” in every trader’s muscle memory — has lived by a simple, almost religious rule: buy Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), never sell. Executive chairman Michael Saylor turned that hard-and-fast rule into a brand — a battle cry, even — and the company’s stock went up faster than the asset it was hoarding.
Strategy’s orange dots — the little markers Saylor posts on X every time he adds more Bitcoin to the pile — became a kind of crypto liturgy. There have never been any red dots. Ever. Whenever the crypto’s high priest was asked by someone about what would happen during a steep collapse in price, he declared he would simply buy more Bitcoin.
Erasing a Rule Carved in Stone
During a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Strategy CEO Phong Le was pointedly asked whether the company would ever sell any Bitcoin. Despite Saylor’s previous defiant declarations to the contrary, Le said crypto sales from its treasury were possible.
“If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin,” Le explained, “and we can’t raise any other capital to pay the preferred dividends, then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort.”
While that is not saying Strategy will be selling Bitcoin, it finally puts the option on the table. And though there were questions about whether such sales might be happening soon considering payment of preferred options are due on Dec. 31 and Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) is trading close to the 1.0 threshold of market cap to Bitcoin value, many believed a forced sale could be imminent.
Forced selling by MSTR could easily spiral out of hand.
How a Billionaire Felon Boosted Trump’s Crypto Company en Route to a Pardon
Another post that caught my eye is the Wall Street Journal report How a Billionaire Felon Boosted Trump’s Crypto Company en Route to a Pardon That’s a free link.
Changpeng Zhao, crypto’s richest man, flew home from a California jail a year ago to recuperate in a secluded neighborhood of $30 million villas on a white-sand island here. He worked on his kite-surfing, caught up with friends in beachside clubs and kept his 100-foot yacht, Da Moon, moored nearby.
Despite his freedom, all wasn’t well. Binance, Zhao’s crypto exchange—owned by a felon and shackled by U.S. authorities—was struggling. Its new overseers were turning the screws to eliminate the practices that had made it a giant money-laundering mill. Binance’s top legal staff were certain the company was doomed.
Then Donald Trump’s surging presidential campaign presented an opportunity.
Around the time of the election, Zhao’s representatives began discussions with allies of Trump, saying they wanted to find a solution to Binance’s legal troubles in the U.S. and offering a deal with a Trump family business, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Once Trump won, Binance formed a high-level task force to strike a deal with the Trumps’ nascent cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial, that Binance could leverage into clemency for Zhao, other people familiar with the matter said.
This spring, Binance took steps that catapulted the Trump family venture’s new stablecoin product, enhancing its credibility and pushing its market capitalization up from $127 million to over $2.1 billion.
Trump granted Zhao a presidential pardon last week, likely paving the way for the world’s largest crypto-trading platform to return to the U.S., from where it was banned after the company pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating anti-money-laundering rules. At the time, the government said Zhao had caused “significant harm to U.S. national security” by allowing sanctioned Iranian crypto exchanges, Russian drug-traffickers, Hamas militants and other criminal groups to move billions of dollars through the exchange.
The pardon marks the most distinct instance yet of Trump using the powers of his office to benefit someone at the center of deals that have enriched his family.
Not Just Crypto
Jack Hopkins: “Because Donald Trump ONLY identifies with criminals. Hear me: a man who pardons a man convicted of conspiring to traffic 400 tons of cocaine into the United States…but says his targeting of civilians in fishing boats…is to fight drug trafficking, is full of f*cking bullsh*t.“
Trump Closes Venezuela Air Space Despite No Legal Authority, Attack Coming?
I discussed Honduras on November 29 as well.
Please consider Trump Closes Venezuela Air Space Despite No Legal Authority, Attack Coming?
Trump to Pardon former Honduran president convicted of drug-trafficking
CNN reports Trump says he will pardon former Honduran president serving sentence in drug-trafficking case
One has to wonder how much Juan Orlando Hernandez funneled to Trump’s campaign.
Numerous Illegal Actions
Trump is gearing up for an illegal strike on Venezuela, has threatened bombing Mexico drug cartels, has threatened Nigeria, and would not even rule out taking Greenland by force to secure rare earth minerals.
If Trump loses the House in the midterms, he will be impeached for a third time. And there will be a strong case for it. However, the third impeachment will be symbolic because the Senate won’t convict.
Meanwhile, those who respect the law are sickened by Trump’s total disregard of it.
I am pleased to see Senator Rand Paul take a stand on Trump’s warmongering and tariffs.
Rand Paul Right on Venezuela, Right on Tariffs
September 3, 2025: A Strange Transformation of the Tea Party to Big Gov’t and Huge Spending
The term RINO no longer makes any sense at all.
November 28, 2025: Trump Doubles Down on Idiotic Idea of Using Tariffs to Replace Income Tax
Once again, Trump says tariffs can replace the income tax.
November 29, 2025: We Pay the Tariffs Anecdotes, Lost Sales and Going Bankrupt
“We are just in business to pay off our tariff debt.”
Finally, please see my September 2, 2025 post: Gold Surges Above $3,600 to New Record High Despite a Rising Dollar
Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, and Trump is under control.
Neither do I.
Are the Tulips finally fading…..
Those boats are not for fishing. Bring back the draft, so the suburban moms will have something real to riot about. Invoke the Monroe Doctrine and pull all our troops and bases in Europe and Asia. Have a weight limit in the NFL so we can go back to the old kickoff rules. Invade Canada by eliminating the border with them. Eliminate voting of non land owners (you must have skin in the game). Stop printing money without collateral. Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is zero no matter how much electricity it takes to make it. Never vote for anyone that wants the job (we need a lottery of land owners for real representation). Grow food.
One of the best articles you have written.
“Changpeng Zhao, crypto’s richest man”
And Satoshi laughs
The head is a completed monster H&S formation. The right shoulder will likely take
5 – 6 months, after which the charts project downside to 50 – 60.
Worse than the Biden clan. We just don’t have embarrassing pics or a laptop.
The corruption is bigger. The behavior is more erratic. The violence is greater (continues wars and adds to them with wars on Iran and Venezuela). The threats of violence (themselves each a violation of the UN charter the US itself wrote and ratified) are greater still. Taxes are higher.
Let’s not forget the drug dealer he pardoned too… or freaking SANTOS, ffs.
Stupid, greedy, criminal pigs flock together.
Bring out the kid diddler pardons
Investors want tangible things now. Silver hit a record high of $59 today before falling back.
About that pardon of that Honduran drug smuggler…He got out of a 45 year sentence, so you know he did something “very bad” as Trump would put it.
I wonder if there was any money paid to Trump for that pardon? Dumb question I know. Reminds me of how Capone had all the law enforcement in Chicago paid off.
Wonder how much the turkey had to “contribute” to get its pardon on tday.
Though I strongly disagree with Trump’s pardon, I think the comment of Jack Hopkins about “fishing boats” (boats not made for fishing, in the middle of the ocean, without fishing equipment) is also full of BS.
Also I think that family members of the President or any member of Congress should not be allowed to make any investment recommendations.
Fair point on the fishing boats, but in any case doesn’t the Great And Powerful Uncle Sam have the ability to interdict a boat?
So you capture them, put them on trial and if convicted, put them in prison. You don’t commit war crimes by blasting the fishing boats out of the water and leaving no survivors.
I’d say “a nation of laws” becomes “a nation of men” one bootlicker at a time, except that we haven’t been “a nation of laws” in my lifetime.
They tried that in the past in a couple of cases I had glimpsed on the news years ago, after the boats had reached land. Nobody went to prison, the merchandize disappeared. Some of them contained only clothes (!) in an effort to humiliate the authorities.
Still a lot of boats are coming through, and that is why the drug dealers are still trying (otherwise they would have stopped). But if you go with the “due process”, next day you’ll have hundreds of them, in an effort to overwhelm the authorities.
Its not right I agree and the legality will be challenged I hope. But I have to admit I don’t mind them killing drug smugglers.
Hopkins point is valid. Let’s momentarily stipulate the fishing boats are loaded with drugs. If Trump murdered the occupants (instead of arresting them) because he hates drug runners so much, then we wouldn’t pardon a huge drug runner. But he did.
When a “compare and contrast” exercise reveals a contradiction or double standard, that’s when observers say someone or something is full of bullshit.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding what you think is BS about Hopkins’s statement. If so, what is your critique?
<< what you think is BS about Hopkins’s statement>>
There are a lot of arguments he could make against Trump’s decision, why did he chose the most obvious false one? These are not fishing boats.
On a side note, why all this noise right now, just when there’s an investigation into one of the largest Somali scam operations in Minnesota?
Cover it under the noise?
Near term Bitcoin’s 10, 20, and 40 day cycles bottomed on 11/21. Sunday night’s sudden drop was the 1st 10 day cycle low in the new 20 and 40 day cycles. Given the 10 day cycle ended closer to where it started, rather than the peak, the larger cycles summed effect is moving sideways. There’s a chance for a 2-3 day long trade before both the 2nd 10 cycle and 1st 20 day cycle top and head lower.
Only the December 2013 bear market started out with a faster (59%) sell off than the present (5th) bear market at 33%. The December 2013 bear market eventually crashed 85%, so I’m going with a final bear market projection of a 75-85% crash
I think you’re on to something. The skyrocketing price of gold is ominous. I get the funny feeling that something “big” is going to happen that provides an excuse for another financial system bailout like we had in 2020.
Gold now sits at $4,255 and is poised to challenge its all time high.
Quite the indictment of Trumps malicious incompetence and self enrichment.
One has to wonder if he will become the next importer of Cocaine with his new found friends.
Gold breaking records? Total incompetence at highest level of government? Self-serving? Best pals with drug cartels and murdering the competition?
You’re the poster child for: got exit strategy?
Don’t stop now, keep going!
My strategy is to stay put and provide food for my local rural (recreational paradise) community. I have everything I need and great relationships with my neighbors, land, friends and family. Why would I want to go somewhere that I did not know anyone or how to sustain myself and associates off the land? Language barriers? No thanks!
That said I have travelled to New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, Canada, Japan, Costa Rica, British Isles/Europe, Bahamas & Virgin Islands and others many times and given most of them a thoughtful measuring for suitability. None offer the safety and access to resources, clean air & water that I have right here.
Local knowledge has the power of strong interconnections and healthy relationships. Perhaps you should consider weaving your life into your community so you feel like part of the fabric that supports a healthy life ~ without so much fear and desire to run away?
But thanks for the contributions you make to thought process here!
😉
Perhaps Trumps support of Bitcoin is its downfall? Take a look at Trumps meme coins and DJT stock. He seems to bankrupt everything he touches!
If the Bitcoin collapse were about a return of confidence in the US dollar, gold & silver would be falling with it.
In currency devaluations tangible items like gold, silver, real estate, art, collectable cars rise in value. The intangibles like fiat currencies fall in buying power. This situation is helping people see that Bitcoin is an intangible at this time.
I remain a huge fan of the mining stocks as they are leveraged to the price of gold and making money hand over fist right now. As I have mentioned before, margins in the fourth quarter of 2025 are going to be up over 200% for many mining companies as costs are relatively fixed and virtually all of the appreciation in gold falls straight to the bottom line.
During the Great Depression, Homestake mining stock appreciated wildly and countered the trend ~ they were paying “Special Dividends” that allowed shareholders to buy assets at depressed prices.
History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme!
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Taco continues to pardon those who remind him of himself.
Wonder if its greed and grift or if he just thinks the world is doing himself and others like him wrong.
Criminals need love too!