Interesting Combination Today: Gold, the long bond yield, and the dollar are all up strongly.
Interesting Market Action
- Gold: +$85.00 to $3,602 (+2.4 percent)
- 30-Year Long Bond Yield: Up 5 basis points (0.94 percent) to 4.97 percent
- US Dollar Index: Index level up 0.57 points (0.57 percent) to 98.257
Gold vs the Dollar
Analysts keep saying gold is a function of the dollar. I keep saying it’s not.
The lead chart shows four points in time at which the US dollar index was where it is today.
Other than irrelevant day-to-day fluctuations (and ignoring many days like today), there is no long-term correlation between gold and the dollar.
Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks Major Timeline
August 15, 1971: Nixon ended convertibility of gold at the then fixed price of $35.00 per ounce. Nixon’s actions allowed the Fed and Congress to inflate at will.
January 21, 1980: Gold spiked to a then high of $850 per ounce in the wake of Nixon shock.
March 1980: Volcker restored faith in central banks by jacking up interest rates to 20 percent. Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, labeled the “Great Maestro” for keeping inflation under control.
May 7, 1999: Brown’s Bottom! On the BOE announced plans to dump gold for other assets. Gold was $282. The notice drove the price to $252. The event is named after Gordon Brown, then the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer.
August 23, 2011: Gold hit a then record high of $1923 with a European debt Crisis.
July 26, 2012: ECB president Mario Draghi made his famous “Whatever it Takes” speech. “Within our mandate, the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.” What did Draghi do? Curiously, nothing at all. However, his statement calmed the bond markets and equity markets. Gold was clobbered.
December 17, 2015: Gold bottoms as faith in central banks peaks again.
What followed was QE to absurd levels, three rounds of massive free money fiscal stimulus during Covid, and the Fed misjudging the ensuing inflation.
Now we have insane tariff policy by Trump, a Fed that still does not understand inflation, and Trump pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
If that was not enough, US debt now grows by $1 trillion every 150 days.
A Word About Faith
Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, and Trump is under control.
And neither do I.
Related Posts
June 21, 2025: Record Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See and Trump Begs for More
Let’s investigate CBO deficit projections vs what actually happened.
June 23, 2025: How Long Can the US Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?
An article on the fundamental flaws with the euro triggered this post.
August 14, 2025: US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days
US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.
And three weeks later, gold has surged above $3,800!
Net margins for quality mining companies are over 100% ~ and rising! They make Nvidia’s margins look paltry! Look out above!
>>>
tulips for sale?
I don’t get it. Are you suggesting that gold grows on trees? Or that gold grows like tulips?
Around 2008 myself and a group of friends spent a few weeks in nz. A kiwi man vented his frustration on us “Americans” for crashing the us housing
market he had invested in. Irony i think
The world has benefitted from our debt spending a well as we have. When we can no longer support that debt the world will suffer with us.
GOLD = TRUST . . . when the TRUST declines . . . GOLD Rises . . .
Contagion is moving from Japan to Europe which is already in Recession . . .
“How Long Can the US Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?”
Until the inflection point.
Great intermediate long term chart. Gold in USD valuation is the time-based fractal growth and decay Rosetta stone of asset price valuations (and extreme overvaluations) verses debt accumulation in the global asset-debt macro economy. Dollars are needed to pay dollar-denominated debt obligations. In a severe global macroeconomic recession, dollars will be a transient highly desired asset. Will Gold in USD half before its doubles in valuation. Time will shortly tell.
Or maybe those borrowers will simply default – unable to buy enough dollars with their near-worthless currencies.
BTW, the 30-year JGB is going supernova as we speak.
Gold certainly seems to see Powell as the “new Arthur Burns”.
More like a reflection of Congress and Trumps fiscal irresponsibility!
Burns found himself in the exact same position during the 1970’s.
And in all fairness, he had an “oil shock” to deal with also.
I have to give you that one… 😉
Gold is above $3,637 now. Parabolic charts generally turn down is a striking manner. Is it different this time?
Yes.
Gold has always been a bellwether of a sort, portending good economic times ahead or bad, as the case may be. The current euphoria in the gold bugs’ favorite market is indicative of a lack of confidence in fiat currencies and says that difficult times may lie ahead.
Whether gold achieves greater heights or not depends on Washington’s debt load, in part because a weakened dollar restricts the ability of the imperial city-state to use the world as a sop for its reserve currency status.
I don’t think the world will ever abandon fiat currency. Gold bugs would love to see the dollar pegged to gold, but how would that benefit an economy where industrial production outstrips the ability of gold to monetize it?
=-=-=
dark . sport . blog Is my website; Come visit for more interesting writings by me.
Mish gave you your last warning to stop promoting your website:
Go away!
How would gold benefit an economy where industrial production outstrips the ability of gold to monetize it?
The FED’s jacked up. The FED has bought a lot of securities, LSAPs, keeping supply off the free market. This monetization has been sterilized by remunerating interbank demand deposits. This has, and will continue to, artificially suppress long-term interest rates.
The trading desk also has the option to target just the banks or the nonbanks, either swapping assets, or creating new deposits.
Unfortunately, if you reduce the return on bonds, you incentivize the purchase of competing assets, like real estate – where there is a finite amount of land.
The FED has backed itself into a corner because with the excessive volume of clearing assets, the banks potential to create new money is astronomical. So, the FED can’t lower its primary policy rate, interest on reserve balances, without disastrous consequences.
That will continue to fuel the crypto world.
Can you stop lying, Fed troll?
No-one sterilizes anything by buying (INJECTING NEWLY-PRINTED DIGITAL CASH INTO THE MARKETS) US government debt, long- or short-term paper.
Such blatant LIES promoted by supposedly opposition sites like this one.
Folks,
The government, the fake opposition, All liars.
Your country and your civilization has been destroyed by the people whose flag now flies on ALL Beverly Hills PUBLIC schools.
Instead of YOUR American flag.
Slaves with an attitude, that all.
It’s called an asset swap. The FED pays the banks not to lend, just like Paul Volcker wanted to do.
So give the criminal banksters MORE money at no risk to them? Guaranteed by our tax dollars? Why, you bankster apologist?
If the Fed wanted to just prevent the banksters from lending more, they’d just raise reserve requirements. At no cost to the tax payers or the Fed.
You (((people))) are extremely devious.
Always LIES, MORE LIES.
@Art Last
You’re just spreading disinformation. You have no idea what to say.
It’s just that there is a “deer in the headlights”.
Gold sits at $3,615.00 at the moment and is in breakout territory with no overhead resistance.
Mining stocks are seeing their margins explode upwards and cash positions rocket upwards. They are making the Mag 7 look like low growth entities.
AEM just posted this update on their website:
https://s205.q4cdn.com/243646470/files/doc_presentation/2025/Corporate-Update-Sep-2025.pdf
My favorite mining company by a long shot. I expect there to be a dividend increase announced with the third quarter earnings as it is only $1.60 per share. Free cashflow should hit $1.4 billion this quarter and when I bought at $46 the dividend was the same and they had well over two billion in debt.
Wish I had bought more as hindsight is always 20/20
I too own $AEM since May 2020 … thought of selling numerous times as it went sideways but held it for original conviction as a shock absorber. Now it is a significantly higher portion of my various portfolios but not in the mood to sell.
In many people’s opinion this is the best-run gold miner….
Gold doesn’t pay much attention to anything but aqua regia.
There are many techniques for separating gold from rock, but good old Hydrochloric & Nitric acid is one of the most commonly used.
There is an interesting graphene process that does not require acids to recover gold. I do not give out names etc. It may be a game changer, or a nothing burger, but the potential, especially at current prices…..
Mish has indicated that links and names are OK. I was reluctant to share AEM for a long time and have other great stocks but I try to at least stay on topic.
The basic problem with nearly every analysis on this general topic is assuming the dollar is useful for measuring relative value of a wide range of products and services over short or long time periods. That was basically true before August 15, 1971. In reality, it was gold holding the dollar value constant that made it a good measuring tool. With the gold backing severed, gold is now the measuring tool just as it has been for millennial. To use the dollar index as a tool to measure the dollar’s value is basically saying the dollar could be backed with other currencies in the index and purchasing power would be held constant. That is absolutely preposterous as every currency in the index is a flawed fiat just like the dollar.
Rather the best measure of the dollar’s value is to compare it to gold, the metal that backed it before the shenanigans commenced. To use any government measure of inflation is to foolishly place faith in its ability to calculate economic measures correctly without error or political influence. All schemes to measure dollar worth fail scrutinization except gold.
A basic tenant of money is constant value or store of value; the dollar has failed. Most realize that superficially; most people have not processed what that actually means.
– The basic problem with nearly every analysis on this general topic is assuming the dollar is useful for measuring relative value of a wide range of products and services over short or long time periods.
> I agree, as Gold is no longer the “Store of Value” that it was once represented as. Of course it was backed by an actual currency, but no longer. Now it’s considered more of an “Investment Strategy” much like Bitcoin could be conceived as.
– With the gold backing severed, gold is now the measuring tool just as it has been for millennial. To use That is absolutely preposterous as every currency in the index is a flawed fiat just like the dollar.
> Again I agree.
– To use any government measure of inflation is to foolishly place faith in its ability to calculate economic measures correctly without error or political influence. All schemes to measure dollar worth fail scrutinization except gold.
> I got you with placing blind faith in the Government’s ability to measure economic issue, but they are simply too slow, maybe on purpose? To be able to latch on enough worthwhile and meaningful numbers. Either too late, or too quick on some here and there, and that skews it all. Not so sure I would peg the value for gold in anyway to the dollar. Not being tied in any way to it, makes that a fools errand as well imo. Maybe you have a calculation where gold value comes into play with other values, and that may do, but I would need to see them first.
currency created by governments never backed gold, gold backed the currency till it was ‘inconvenient’ for the government.
gold is not an investment strategy; it is a wealth preservation strategy. As the old saying goes an ounce of gold buys a tailored wool suit in the past as now.
dollar was backed or pegged to gold at $35.00 per ounce. Both the dollar and gold still exist but only gold has held value.
Spot ON !
– currency created by governments never backed gold, gold backed the currency till it was ‘inconvenient’ for the government. > Exactly correct, which is making my point. That was in the days where Gold Literally Backstopped Our Currency. Today nothing backs our currency OR gold, but gold itself, and what somebody is willing to pay for it, is it true value at that moment in time. It’s not a store of value per se, because it has only the value of its worth, at any given time, to the buyer or buyers looking for it. That could be $0.00 in many disaster situations, as it’s simply not practical. The most common form in modern times, of a “Store Of Value” is Money.
– gold is not an investment strategy; it is a wealth preservation strategy. As the old saying goes an ounce of gold buys a tailored wool suit in the past as now. > Once again your making my point. The only wealth it preserves, is the wealth at the time it goes up for sale, which is not preserved at all. It fluctuates and could go to zero if nobody wants or desires it. Probably not going to happen, as India alone would buy it, but again, not for its (lack of) store of value, but for its culture, and way of life towards it. Its value is held within its heredity and culture etc.
– dollar was backed or pegged to gold at $35.00 per ounce. Both the dollar and gold still exist but only gold has held value. > My point again, as the dollar “Was”and still is Worth $1. The dollar is worth the same as gold, and that’s what somebody is willing to pay for or more importantly Trade For! Now you can trade a $100 for a bunch of clothes let’s say, and an equal amount of Gold may get some to take it for the same, but perhaps not all, for all sorts of reasons. In tough times, it’s not an option for most, as people want cash. They know everyone will take it for something. Gold has not held its value over time. In the 70’s at 1 point it was worth upwards of $850.00 Oz but in the ensuing years until 1999 where it dropped to a value of $251.00 Oz. It has steadily climbed through the 2000’s to where it is at now, which is around $3,500.00 Oz.
>> So from $850 to $250 to $3,500 an Oz. From 1970’s to Today. Last I checked a Dollar was worth a dollar the entire time. One could argue that its purchasing power is less, but that would depend on several factors. One could equally have said that about Gold in 1999, and be 100% correct too. Do you really think its store of value will be $3,500.00 Oz. In 10 years? If so then buy tons and tons of the stuff!!! I have no idea, but I will bet against that being the case, and just stick with jewelry.
In my first post of this thread the lead statement was “The basic problem with nearly every analysis on this general topic is assuming the dollar is useful for measuring relative value of a wide range of products and services over short or long time periods.” In your reply above about everything is using the dollar to measure value assuming it is a valid tool even stating: “My point again, as the dollar Was”and still is Worth $1.” Later you say: “So from $850 to $250 to $3,500 an Oz. From 1970’s to Today. Last I checked a Dollar was worth a dollar the entire time.” So why do we have inflation and shrinkflation? Why do you spend more dollars now than in the past if the dollar is the same and the product has not changed? The dollar is constantly changing and nothing goes up and down in a straight line. It is the dollar changing value, not gold.
If you care to see how an item changes over time, plot its dollar value divided by gold in dollars. as that takes dollars out of the measuring. Do it for stocks, labor, energy, roofing materials or anything else; you will find the curves give you a very realistic comparison of the relative value of a wide range of products and services over short or long time periods.
– So why do we have inflation and shrinkflation? Why do you spend more dollars now than in the past if the dollar is the same and the product has not changed? It is the dollar changing value, not gold.
> I just proved to you that Gold Fluctuates Constantly in Value, but not the Dollar! You are confusing cost and value which are entirely different, and that’s the Rub!
>> A Dollars “Purchasing Power” went down, and it goes up and down all the time, but the Dollar is Valued always at a dollar, ALWAYS!! Golds “Purchasing Power” goes up and down too, BUT it’s because the “Value Eroded” and the desire subsided. What do you think drove the price of gold so high? Desire to buy and hold it. That will subside when money is needed, or when gold starts dropping in value precipitously and nears $2,000 it will have shrunk in value by 33% or so. That’s NOT a store of value!!
> You need to stop comparing the two and their value, as one never changes its value, but it’s purchasing power may decline and rise here and there, but never its value. The others value changes constantly, and thereby making its value change constantly. That makes it purchasing power change drastically. That never happens with the dollar, because its value never changes like gold, but both have their purchasing power change. One because its value decreased and the other because cost increased. Do you see the difference? Money is a store of value, as printed upon it, and accepted anywhere from anyone. Gold is an investment strategy and its value changes constantly as it should, being an investment tool. It’s not accepted by everyone, and its value changes so fast sometime, you can get stuck eating a boatload of cash trying to get whatever you can for it. I 1999 it was peanuts for what was paid for it before then…
Consider labor. A person worked an hour in 1971 and is paid $35 or an ounce of gold. Same hour of labor at $35 is roughly 0.01 ounce of gold today. So, the value of the dollar did not change? So, the purchasing power did not change? So, the dollar has been a store of value since 1971? An hour of labor is still an hour of labor. I believe you would much rather have the ounce of gold from that hour of 1971 labor than the $35. But if the dollar is the same, then you must be happy selling your gold for $35 if you have any.
When I was a kid, a paper dollar was backed by an ounce of silver as printed on it but that change to being backed by the full faith and trust in the government. That dollar is not the same. The Morgan silver dollar is still the same.
– Consider labor. A person worked an hour in 1971 and is paid $35 or an ounce of gold. > I know where your going with this, and your making my point again.
>> The Nixon Shock in 1971 was Partly Caused by the “Fixed” Gold Price of $35 Oz. Since 1944. It didn’t even cover the entire dollar (45%?). The changing value, not due to value, as it has none as we discussed already. Only what someone deems it to be, and will pay it. That time ended in this example. Gold Exploded in value in 1972 due to demand and speculation, people saw it rise quickly (by Government and Connected People some would say) and like the first to dance gets the floor filled, Gold was in high demand, but not for value as it wasn’t set yet, and rising fast still.
This of course brought about The Investigation of 1975. You now what that uncovered mostly? A wild fluctuation of golds value due to “Influenced Investor Sentiment” How about that…
Dave, I dare say we are approaching this sort of sentiment once again, as it occurs often with gold. My guess is the value will be deemed a lot less by the end of 2028.
The reason for the shock as you call it was not because the gold did not cover the cost of the dollar. If that were the case, then international central banks would have preferred dollars to gold. In 1971 the US was out spending its income to cover the country’s guns and butter policies of the previous decade. Foreign central banks correctly feared the dollar would not hold its value therefore central banks were exchanging their dollars for gold at a rate that concerned the Nixon administration. That led to the executive order ‘temporarily’ removing gold backing the dollar. Once that discipline was removed, there were no limits to government borrow and spend so the dollar lost purchasing power as federal debt grew and continues to grow geometrically from less than a trillion dollars to near 38 trillion now. Gold is still the pet rock that has not changed for thousands of years.
The summary of the time period you discuss can be characterized as loss of faith in in government (not covering its spending with revenue) and without gold backing, the dollar tanked.
Your second reply gives us a measure to evaluate our positions. I believe it will take more US dollars to purchase an ounce of gold by the end of 2028 than today. You expect gold’s value will be deemed a lot less. You must mean it will take fewer same value dollars to buy and ounce of gold.
“My guess is the value (of Gold) will be deemed a lot less by the end of 2028”
I stand by that, and it will be due to the price of Gold falling, as people continue to sell it as it continues to be an avenue for quick cash that is much needed to pay off debt.
Not enough “Investors” willing to use their cash to “Invest” in a falling in value gold rock.
So perhaps the value falls back to $1,500.00 by the Mid-terms perhaps?
Back in the house with some fresh eggs for the family and lo and behold that darn gold is holding its gains into the open! $3,615.40 on the continuous contract.
I have a few ultra right wing MAGA friends that tell me the dollar will be gone within Trumps term and replaced with a digital currency that heralds the beginning of Trumps magnificent new world order.
They say that everyone will get a $5,000 payment soon and “Gazillions” of dollars in stored up wealth will be bestowed on MAGA faithful. They literally believe that the “Hand of God” saved Trump from the assassin and Trump is our nations savior. They have all the hallmarks of a cult and sometimes it is hard to listen with a straight face.
What really surprises me is how many of them there are in farm country and in the Porsche and aviation communities. Interestingly few of them are wearing their red hats these days.
MAGA is singlehandedly driving some serious accumulation of physical gold as these guys totally believe that the dollar is going to be worthless.
In an hour or so I’ll head downtown for some coffee with the “good ol boyz” for more of what I thought was “Entertaining banter”. I am slowly realizing that this MAGA movement may be more dangerous to Americas personal freedoms than any foreign threat.
I’ll be the quiet one, listening, nodding and commenting on how the chickens are “so productive” this year.
With Trump sending military forces into our cities, it is obvious he is preparing for serious civil unrest. With January 6th as an example, we can be sure he knows how to rally ordinary Americans into his soldiers of disruption. He not only pardoned the insurrectionists, he is giving the thugs jobs in ICE!
We live in interesting times!
Let us know if your neighborhood ever allows anyone to talk some sense into their domes. Seeing zero signs of that anywhere in MAGA land.
I see slight signs of wakening in ZH comments. They’ve turned on trump — after he betrayed them — almost completely. It’s more of an improvement than I witnessed from everyone I personally know who voted for Obama (other than me in 2008) or for other D’s.
Despite their remarkable about-face on Trump, I describe their change as “slight” because i don’t see an ideological awakening. Hence, my guess is they’ll still back the next shyster that pays lip service to their wishes.
Fuentes did his about face 3+ years ago. Did a short review of that this week on his R um ble show.
I appreciate Fuentes for his honesty, more genuine MAGA focus, and his excellent exposes of Tucker. I don’t share some of his preferences. But I’ll take an honest person (with greater concern for us serfs) any day over a “made man” like Tucker, whom I long suspected to be controlled opp — because if you’re not then you don’t get a well-financed show and “the important people” go to great lengths to avoid talking about you at all.
I see both… The red MAGA hats are gone at our cars-n-coffee events, but there at last weekends one old guy wore a brown hat with Gold MAGA lettering.
In contrast: The “law and order” rhetoric at todays coffee clutch of the old boyz was hard core against Chicago.
Just small samples, but I enjoy hearing other reports!
55 shot over the weekend in Chicago, 7 deaths.
They need target practice!
😉
As we see with the call to texas he(and the far rt) will need less of the masses to vote for him. If that fails he has the ng in the citys / the supreme court / and conservative media on his his side. Gonna get ugly
rando, Confronting them with my thoughts and alternative ideas is not well accepted. I have tried within the Porsche community and been slammed hard and lost friends. Locally, I wouldn’t dare do anything but set a different example and treat my small successes as “getting lucky” with my timing.
It is far easier for many of them to continue being fooled than admitting being wrong…
Yet we can hope that the pendulum swings favorably before the US has lost all credibility.
A buddy once told me. Its hard to own up to being wrong. Use how those sure the election was rigged as an example. Still say its rigged with less vigor.
> Confronting them with my thoughts and alternative ideas is not well accepted.
Seems this is almost always the case. Indeed, I must confess to being part of that problem. I lose so much respect for people (middle age or above) that keep voting for the uniparty that when they speak to me (to tell me their “alternative ideas”) I feel like I’m talking to a biologic entity that lacks agency (aka NPC). No matter what else they say or how much I wish them well, it makes me sad to interact with them. It always reminds me of the power the ”Edward Bernays” types have over them.
Once you’re outside Plato’s cave and you remember what conversations are like before you exited, can you really return inside to watch the lights flicker on the side of the cave?
Respect!
What kind of farmers own Porsches?
Hobby farmers?
I agree that this is disturbing content, and appreciate the “Thumbs Down”.
Just be aware that the MAGA hardcore farmers and other subsets of our population are buying into the “MAGA Revolution”.
Don’t shoot the messenger, and don’t be without some exposure to gold. If not a little physical? Get some shares in a quality mining company…
Do not buy GLD as it is mostly paper contracts.
Now where’s my “tinfoil hat?”
😉
I disagree on GLD. You can buy GLD, buy a protective put ATM, sell a call and still end up with a net credit. Doing so for January 2026 nets you ~3 percent return in 135 days or 8.3% annualized if you can repeat. No way to lose money unless the exchanges don’t honor their options.
Thanks for the perspective! That is a great strategy!
I am a big fan of selling options on all sorts of high IV stocks. I almost always sell puts to buy stock and calls when I’m seeing temporary highs.
At times it is like shooting ducks in a barrel with 80% of the options expiring worthless. Occasionally I get stock called away and miss gains, but in the long run it is highly profitable.
Enjoy!
“Now where’s my “tinfoil hat?”
I’d rather invest in tin than gold at this point.
You can be on the next Cracker Barrel logo.
Ha! perhaps passing wind on the toilet?
Out in the country you can take the pulse by chatting at the counter…
Whate state if that if you don’t mind me asking?
Reality. 😉
It’s a great escape from Drugs and Religion!
Come on dude, you can’t answer the question?
Ronald Reagan always did
We started ploughing money into gold shares in 2020 when the covid shutdowns were announced. I figured it was a no brainer. It was.
Good move! I was right there with you and have over tripled my investment in AEM plus re-invested my dividends.
Vista gold in Australia has been a massive hit with a 10x return and they have not mined an ounce of gold!
It takes a great deal of reading on those quiet winter nights to figure out what companies to buy…
>
I started back on 2008, during the so called mortgage crisis, regretting that I had considered averaging in early in that decade, but didn’t.
If you put up a chart of gold producers’ forward sales (hedging)) since 2000 to today and compare that to the price of gold then you see a curious inverse relationship. Producers used to be the big paper gold sellers in the market because they needed to lock in the price they needed to cover operating costs. That was very high and kept the price down. They were even hedging more than they produced in the year 2000. Basically when they started de-hedging prices started to rise. To be brief, They were the big sellers that kept prices down. When they gradually stopped probably by not rolling over long-term contracts the prices started to rise. Fast forward to Covid and the war in Ukraine and prices started to go ballistic. With the producers no longer hedging and with everyone knowing they aren’t hedging while production has increased only modestly what we have is a situation where only a couple of big buyers can make the market soar. Kind of reminds me of bitcoin in a way. Here is the data:
Data Summary:
Hedge Book (tonnes):2000: ~3,000 (peak during low prices).2003: ~2,100 (de-hedging began).2007: ~1,000 (significant de-hedging).2010: ~500 (price rally reduced hedging).2013: 96 (historic low).2016: 295 (slight uptick).2018: ~100 (minimal hedging).2022: 227 (Q1 peak).2024–2025: ~150–200 (4–5% of production).
Gold Prices (USD/oz, annual averages except 2025):2000: $279.112003: $363.382007: $695.392010: $1,224.532013: $1,411.232016: $1,250.742018: $1,268.492022: $1,800.092024: ~$2,400 (estimated).2025: $3,540.63 (spot price, September 3, 2025).Global Mine Production (tonnes, primary mine output)2000: 2,573 (declining from South Africa’s peak influence).2003: 2,5932007: 2,477 (dip due to mine closures).2010: 2,689 (post-2008 recovery).2013: 3,022 (growth from China, Russia).2016: 3,251 (steady increase).2018: 3,556 (record high).2022: 3,6282024: ~3,644 (highest since 2018, estimated from,).2025: ~3,650 (projected based on 2024 trends and Q2 2025 data of 909 tonnes).
Many mining companies got burned with their hedges as they had to deliver ounces at lower than spot prices. Now they are flush with cash and can develop resources without financing or hedging forward production.
AEM will have $3 billion in free cashflow to pay dividends or buy back stock this year if prices stay at these levels. If they go up? Great fun!
I should have mentioned that the rise of the middle class in China and India created almost a billion people who can afford to buy gold. The correlation of the rise of India’s middle class with the surge in gold prices is pretty clear.
Correct, the worlds population is well aware of our success and wants to become conspicuous consumers like Americans. Affluence for the worlds masses has been a knock on benefit of the globalization of all things consumer related.
This is why commodity producers can be excellent buys. In the past margins were exceptionally low but now most precious metals mining companies have margins well over 50%, the best of them have retired their debt and have all in margins above 70%.
I used to watch Penny Stocks and saw how a few low dollar high volume transactions would move the price dramatically. Gold reminds me of this in an alternative universe kind of way. All the gold ever mined in the world would fill less than 4 Olympic sized swimming pools. 3.5 to be exact. Like penny stocks, nothing to get excited about except from a speculative perspective. It would be interesting to know how few wheelbarrows of gold actually physically change hands everyday.
Small float with a couple of big buyers move the stock. When they want to sell the price drops faster than a diving falcon.
I remember when Barrick announced that they were stopping their forward hedging – boy, must have been 20ish years ago now. I think Newmont and mid-level producers had announced an end to their hedging a few years prior and their stock price benefited while Barrick’s hardly budged. So they were under pressure to unwind and stop hedging. As the biggest miner on the block at the time, the sentiment was that they were purposefully trying to depress the gold price so that other miners would have trouble starting up and/or have to sell their resources to them.
My dollar is down in purchasing power everyday.The Dollar is up against other currencies which are down everyday in purchasing power as well. I don’t buy other currencies and most other peope don’t either. I would rather own the Sept. 2011 high than today’s high in terms of convertible utility.
My Bitcoin laughs at dollars
TIMEX keeps laughing at dollars too. They say time is money. I wonder if Bitcoin is time? They say that what goes up must come down, time marches on, and only time will tell.
Until the power goes out or the internet goes down.
Haha if worst comes to worst you Cant wipe your butt with bit coin.
Maybe in aggregate, but I track the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro and a BRICS currency and it’s been down for a month.
Could it be the New World Order meeting in China? There were lots of participants. The American Age is getting tested. As Ray Dalio has researched we seem to be at that time where the up and comer, China, is ready to lead for real. Today was certainly a statement. DT is the obvious symbol of the popular leader trying to regain old glory. It will fail. It is failing. The questions are when and how severe? Our economies are still intertwined but for how long? What is unbelievable is DT is actually accelerating the decline with tariffs causing the rest of the world to rework their partnerships. Hollywood would not have come up with a script so stupid…
Last I checked the world is tightly coupled with the US consumer.
when was it ? 1955 ?
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for most of consumer positions CHINA MARKET ALONE IS BIGGER THAN USA.!!!!!
cars, luxury items, comps, phones, etc
china EXPORTS SO MUCH , AS MOST OF WORLD PRODUCTIONS LINES ARE THERE.
======
you can’t beat 1.5 bil country w/ already average income per capita.
number billionaires and millionaires in China and USA is comparable
alx
“number billionaires and millionaires in China and USA is comparable”
But China has roughly 3x the population so if the numbers are comparable the US is miles ahead.
The is reflected in the per capita income where the US has a roughly 3x advantage.
The US consumer is still the worlds engine.
WOW!
another uneducated peasant who know nothing about business balance blithering about things.
=====
pal, CORPORATIONS reports things based on raw numbers.
gross sale is gross sale!!
no matter those sales came from USA /w higher per capita, or lower per capita income in china!
as I told GROSS SALES IN CHINA FOR CARS, COMPUTERS, PHONES, ETC ARE BIGGER!!!! dare to check out !!
alx
ps
btw mor11on..
china ppl is about 1.5 bil
usa ppl is about 330 bil
so it is fully 4.5x bigger!
= worlds engine.
what engine mor111on?? when did you last time travel outside local county in Wisconsin, your state ?
there is no SINGLE METRIC IN any industry in the world where USA holds top position! none!!!!!!!
cars??
smart phones?
roads?
airports?
nuclear site buildings?
ppl health?
====
oops, i am sorry!! i am wrong
WEAPONS SPENDING AND DOLLAR PRINTING.,
USA IS NUMBER !
GET BACK to SCHOOL!
The US consumer is flat broke.
Nothing that some bankruptcies, more helocs and fresh credit cards can’t fix.
well it’ll take a minute. it’s been 8 months, and it’s already changing.
Gold has gone parabolic on the chart ~ with the dollar index at 98?
In the three other examples gold went up after the red boxes Mesh put on the chart. The obvious question is: Are there many other points on the chart where the dollar was at 98? If so, what happened there?
To my recollection, the dollar index hits 98 quite often, so I am not sure of the significance? Perhaps that is your point?
Oddly, I have seen gold rise in a deflationary environment (housing crisis) which also goes against general thought.
Todays situation more of a classic global inflation nightmare with the reserve currency nation being run by irresponsible leaders. Trump is showing the world that he is willing to blow up the dollar to flip the global paradigm to his personal benefit.
Only a month ago I did not think that the dollar would get in trouble, but now looks like yields can not go down much on the long bond. Why would anyone tie up dollars that are falling significantly in value?
If I were a central banker, insurance company or investment professional, I would be buying gold in a higher proportion to previous positions in the dollar as well.
“Troubles, they may come and go, but good times, they’re the gold.”
― Dave Matthews Band
I remember after 9/11, gold wasn’t moving much and that surprised me at the time. It was $275 an ounce. I remember buying some on ebay around that time and curiously the tenth ounce coins had no premium over the larger ones.
I foolishly sold some in the late naughts only to buy back later at much higher prices.
As much as I still think gold is a good hedge for the future, it’s too pricey for me to buy any more.
For those who didn’t know, gold is taxed as a collectible. It does not benefit from long term capitals gains tax. Meanwhile, crypto owners get that tax break.
Collectibles do benefit from capital gain rates, but the maximum rate on collectibles gain is 28%, not 15% or 20%. Taxpayers in the 32%, 35%, and 37% brackets get a break.
Yep on taxes–hold gold in your IRA.
The main disadvantage of holding gold in an IRA, even for taxpayers in the 32%, 35%, and 37% brackets, is that if the value of the gold has increased from the time of purchase to the time the IRA owner dies, there’s no step up in basis. In other words, the beneficiaries of the IRA will pay tax on the entire gain. If the gold is held outside an IRA, the beneficiaries will pay tax only on the increase in value after the death of the IRA owner.
Put it in a Roth IRA
=it’s too pricey for me to buy any more.
in 2025 gold was in 6*8 month range 3300*3500 . you could have bought any time!
you dont buy /sell gold. gold is money
only reason to sell gold in case of emergency
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INSTEAD OF LOOKING AT GOLD PRICE, JUST WATCH USA DEBT chart.
almost 38 trln and up 2 tlrn each year!!!
alx
ps
and read Weimar readings.. you gonna need ones!
I begrudgingly bought some ozt about three years ago because I thought that it didn’t have much upside. That was about $1900 each.
The last two weeks of the 5 and 10 yr US treasury yield and today’s pop give me a lot more confidence counting Elliott waves. The pattern from the October 2023 highs to present looks like Wave B symmetric triangle, with a strong breakout of higher interest rates in Wave C the next 12-18 months.
The chart for the 30 year US Bond yield is still very difficult to count Elliott waves. There is a general trend to the upside from the September 2024 lows, which conveys strength.
Given that interest rates have 15 years to go until the 60 year cycle top, I should not be surprised at the pattern on the 30 year bond is what it is.
Elliott waves.
=
junk!
factual statement, you can twist EWs to fit 100% of cognitive biases
> let’s just say by chance, that the largest holder of Gold in the World, wanted to divest themselves of a bunch of the stuff. Let’s hold the notion, that the amount that they have is larger than the next 3 Countries combined, simply saying.
>> So I ponder the thought, that the wealthiest holder of the yellow stuff, probably would have the best chance of manipulating the Price Of It.
>>> Hmm… Largest Holder, Wishes to Sell, Drives up Price, Makes a Ton of Cash, and still continues to be the Holder of the Most in the World. Now however, they have just paid their debts off, and have cash flow too.
Who could this be? Who could potentially Benefit Greatly? Would it change much in their economic position? Do Tariffs come into play for them in all of this? How about Billions in investment as well, and would that change things up quite a bit? Not sure myself, but certainly ponder it, in pieces anyway…
Gold makes sense, but the value of the dollar does not. The dollar is 40 or 50 percent overvalued. Who is buying the dollar? Not intelligent long term investors I suspect. Probably mainly governments manipulating currency for trade advantage. It is clearly way overdue for the US to call BS on that. Any country with a significant persistent trade surplus without good reason should be automatically labeled a currency manipulator and hit with substantial trade sanctions including for example: tariffs, quotas, and embargoes on selected products until they get their trade into balance. They can do it a lot easier and more efficiently than the deficit countries can.
i love the dow/gold ratio long term chart. also works for home prices, too. take a look ladies and gents. https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
Great stuff. Thanks
Good site! Thanks!
Gold is signaling that the Federal Reserve is about to lose its independence and the dollar is going to get hammered by the reckless spending by Trump and his sycophants.
I’ve never been much for holding the metal itself, but the mining stocks have been fantastic investments for me over the years.
Right now the best of them have higher margins and margin growth than the Mag 7
>>> Protect your buying power and collect dividends at the same time.
I’m not persuaded gold is salvation, but it absolutely is a crowded trade right now, above its usual hysteria. I am seeing weird insider-compromised plays on banking and the dollar by The Julius of Orange, and other misadventures. I am hoping something else will rein him in. Maybe the Gnomes of Zurich or the Bond Vigilantes or someone will awaken and ride over the hill collectively and insist on some adults in the room or something (recalling W. Bush’s worst manias finally got somewhat on a leash, though we had 2 wasted wars and the GFC that time). Bessent obviously has no spine in the room.
I agree that gold is not salvation, but it is one of the assets that is more reliable than any fiat currency over the long term. Salvation for me comes in great relationships with my family, friends and neighbors. When the chit hits the fan, it takes a strong group of people with many skills to remain in control of their lives.
A broad range of assets, keen eye and a low profile help keep families together and communities strong. Self reliance in food, clothing and shelter may be helpful if Trump succeeds in tearing the fabric of our current stable society.
With gold at $3,604.60 on the continual contract at the moment, I see that my favorite mining stock (AEM) will have its margins expand by over $300 per ounce this quarter. Spread over 850,000 ounces ~ that is and additional $255 million in revenue. As most of you know, all extra margins fall to the bottom line after All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are covered.
Agnico Eagle is leading the industry in making its mines more efficient and reducing costs. Remotely operated electrical mining equipment allows for Ventilation On Demand which reduces costs by 35 to 40% under the right conditions.
Zero net debt is helping and cash is piling up for both share buybacks and increasing dividends.
We live in interesting times!
Nope, there’s nobody riding over the hill.
You’re on your own.
yeah when Uber drivers are talking about gold, it’s time to sell.
I think the explanation here is pretty simple if you turn on the news. The dollar spiraling out of control + American debt spiraling out of control + the prospect of civil unrest = gold is a damn good investment right now.
No matter who gets shot, fired, or inflated to death gold will continue to hold value. It’s the ideal investment for the pessimist or even average Joe who’s increasingly alarmed by what’s written on the wall. I remember back in 08 you had gold shoot up for similar reasons as it held value in an era where central banks dipped out.
My experience is that big moves in gold and oil are more often driven by “tomorrow’s” (or next-weeks’) headlines – things that insiders now know about, but we do not.
Unrest in the streets and regular Joe will be transacting day to day in gold how, exactly?
Regular Joe doesn’t invest period, nor does he think of such matters while working his two jobs to break even on a single bedroom roach motel. Gold is for people wealthy enough to invest (the top 20% of the population, and that’s being generous) who want to keep funds in something that isn’t going to get price shocked when shit goes down.
Just to understand you correctly. What your stating, is that the 20% you reference, basically keep the price up high amongst themselves. The other 80% can’t, so they don’t.
What I’m saying, is that the guy on the street who’s hungry, when offered $100 in Cash OR $100 in Gold, will take the cash every single time.
The 20% best be able to keep that cost up as high as possible, because new buyers would become very scarce , and existing Holders will start selling fast. Now the 20% is hungry…
The 20% can go cash out their gold to whatever when they get on a plane and leave after the shooting starts. They’re not trading physical gold dude, they own stocks in gold companies and gold funds. These investments are then safe from a currency collapse and can be pulled out into any currency wherever they wind up.
Hmm… I seem to remember “Gold Confiscation” not all that long ago. So how do you sell what you don’t have? You know when things go south as you suggest, but your Gold now becomes the Countries Old for the same reason you’re holding it now. Unfortunately you don’t get to in this sort of chaos you mention.
This chaos you refer to, IS EXACTLY “WHEN & WHY” it isn’t yours any longer, but The Government’s.
Look at History before assuming You Get to keep what you have, if it’s required for Our Country.
Now look at the people with Dollar Bills and food on their tables. That’s the difference, and Why a DC is wished for by our Government!
Because it’s a stock and not a real object like you seem to be convinced I’m talking about? Because America can’t confiscate stocks since it’s a world market?
If I own shares in a South African gold mining company, it’s recorded by their stock exchanges and honored by them. I cash a few shares out to Euros when I hit Italy and pay rent on a new place, simple as. Doesn’t matter if America turns into Syria, my money is safe in something that has intentionally recognized value. Hence why GLD and related investments are soaring. Only a complete moron buys real good bullion that can be taken from them.
– Because it’s a stock and not a real object like you seem to be convinced I’m talking about?Because America can’t confiscate stocks since it’s a world market?
> That’s because your stock is PAPER! You must use it to trade for Gold, or find a buyer that wishes to buy your paper to turn into Gold, or just buy gold themselves, but there won’t be any, as they are in cash, and your Gold Paper is now worthless on the open market. And nobody will trade you food for Paper OR Gold, as you can’t eat it, and/or sell it…
Cash is King!
Do you… do you seriously not know that the market is global? Like, I’m not talking about American assets so unless South Africa also collapses it would be honored because that’s how this works? Holy hell man how did you find a macroeconomics blog with this level of ignorance as to how the market functions?
“Investments” are soaring, so they can sell it for cash, when it gets high enough. Not to keep it for food or shelter…
Bingo!
“Cash is King” and that’s just one of many reasons why.
Not so much if it takes a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread.
In what is now becoming Weimar Republic II it will not be the cash in your wheelbarrow that people want. It will be the wheelbarrow itself that you have to keep an eye on while going into the bakery to buy bread. Best keep a good eye on your Gold as well.
Was that recently? Things have changed a lot…
P.S. Did you know that it’s really easy to make bread? I do it now and then for the true flavor of bread.
Correct! And I grow my own heirloom wheat!
Just like a stock, you sell it before going to the grocery store.
Can you say Gold = DOW?
Long way to go either way !
There are only so many ounces of gold and silver. Dollars, Euros and other fiat currencies can be printed (or created with a keystroke) at any time and they just keep creating trillions more.
When the musical chair game stops I’d rather be holding gold and silver. Both of which are at record highs in the 2 countries I live in.
You forgot paper gold.Created as much as fiat currencies.Except you can ask for physical delivery and short squeeze the system.
I check the US debt:as long as it’s overexpanding,it drives gold up.I guess gold holders are safe for some time.
If you don’t hold it you don’t own it. Who holds the gold backing the paper? And are there X ounces of gold backing X ounces of paper or is it XXX ounces of paper backed by x ounces of actual gold? Ask the late Hunt brothers what happens when you ask for delivery of silver or your grandparents when they held US gold and silver certificates.
And I can (and have) taken physical on international flights.
Musical chairs if there is a “stand for delivery event and in a resulting “Force Majeure” you get dollars deposited into your futures account at settlement.
BTC has a MUCH harder cap on its supply than gold, which can be mined forever. 95% of all BTC that will ever exist exists now. So it can only be diluted ~5%. Gold supply could well double, eventually.
BTC is non-unique, software to calculate and exchange fancy numbers. There are an u finite number of possible crypto/currencies, the only thing limiting g supply is the availability of greater fools. When BTC stops attracting fools, they will develop BTC 2.0 and wash-rinse-repeat.
you need to get better data. Gold HIGH today 3540.80
$3602 is a new record high for December delivery!
Actually, the continuous contract was at $3,602 earlier in the day and sits at $3,597.40 as I write… Huge for the mining companies.
>>>
You need to understand data better
I’m happy to see $3,600 but my gold is not for investment or speculation – unless you include possibly riding out the big crash. Hopefully, my kids will get it.
Gold in July 1971 at $35 equates to $278 using the CPI calculator. So, is gold over-priced or is the CPI wrong about inflation? Or what?
The CPI isn’t the right inflation measure for gold.
Gold at $35/oz was demonstrably under-valued in 1971, that’s why Nixon had to break the peg. But it wasn’t the gold changing, it was the dollar losing value.
“Inflation” cannot be accurately measured because it has multiple origins, applies differently to assets, goods and services, and varies greatly with personal circumstances.
Gold-standard purists would argue that gold is the only real money, and what you see as “inflation” (prices going up in dollars) is actually stable prices or even deflation (priced in terms of gold).
There are very few things that have gotten much more expensive, in ounces of gold, over the past 100 years. In more cases, technology has increased quality or lowered cost or both.
What people call inflation is actually the progressive devaluation of the dollar since 1971. The “dollar” hasn’t actually been a unit of real money for 54 years, only a unit of “full faith and credit” … whatever that means.
Everyone knows using the current CPI model is totally flawed as it doesn’t really show the full inflationary effects, if you were to use the 1980 model then you can see why gold has exploded. Inflation is up well over +5,000% since Nixon took us off the gold standard. Thus the purchasing power of the dollar has declined almost 99% example; a can of chicken noodle soup Campbell’s was around .17 cents
Today it’s around what $3 dollars.
For more examples see https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
If you are paying $3 a can you better shop around. I can get cans for just over $1.
The $35/oz price is not a market price. It was the price designated by the US gov’t and had been in existence for decades before Nixon closed the gold window.
Gold does it’s own thing while ignoring everything else. To each his own with that asset. Buy now? and endure maybe a twenty year lapse with break even.
If it comes down to the Road Warrior scenario, some other rescue facility will happen. It won’t just be left to a few codgers with Mac10’s in one hand and gold coins at the gas station, shooting it out. The losses will be visited on someone, but not on everyone in favor of the tiny surviving sliver of codgers, just because they have a handful of shiny metal. The world will not work that way.
gold?
Trump fortune balloons by billions after family firm’s crypto token starts trading
A great showing of sheep who want to be sheared, apparently.
If there is a run on the system, or just a big liquidity scare, all kinds of “assets” held through intermediaries are revealed as unpaid unsecured debts of those intermediaries, toward those who thought they were the “owners” of them. Purely digital assets are the worst, except maybe bitcoin. But even in the latter case, the saying holds true: not your keys, not your coins. If you don’t directly hold the on-chain asset, you are someone’s creditor, and not first in line. Good luck in a bankruptcy, or just a suspension of redemptions.
Right you are !
When TSHTF…………..if your dont have it in your possession………its just a third party promise of redemption.
Sometimes a bottle of Vodka is worth more than a can of beans…
Every trade has two sides. If both parties walk away happy? Good enough!
“Purely digital assets are the worst, except maybe bitcoin”:no electricity ,no internet,no more assets.
MAGA nuts will hand money to Trump hand over fist as if they were rich and he were poor. You cannot make this clown show up