by Mish
Rate Hike Odds Drop
Big Yawn
In addition to the bond market letting out a big yawn, rate hike odds did the same. In fact, they declined slightly from 53.2% to 48.7%.
The Global Macro Monitor blog via ZeroHedge blames the Incredible Shrinking Relative Float Of Treasury Bonds and central bank manipulation for falling yields.
Manipulation is certainly present, but the Fed stopped padding its balance sheet long ago. And it’s pretty clear the key decision-makers at the Fed want to hike.
Thus, it’s a big mistake to discount the idea of a weakening economy as the primary reason yields are falling even if the absolute level of yields is in serious question by manipulative actions.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
