Bond yields are up in response to Walmart price hikes, Trump’s comments, and a budget making it out of committee.
The above chart is an update following news of the budget making it out of committee. See addendum below.
Earlier today I noted Trump Blasts Walmart on Price Hikes, Sounds Just Like Elizabeth Warren
Trump on Walmart
“Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year,” he wrote in a post Saturday on Truth Social. “Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, ‘EAT THE TARIFFS,’ and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!”
Lat year, in a letter to Kroger, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bob Casey accused large grocery chains like Kroger and Walmart of being poised “to squeeze consumers to increase profits.”
Now Trump says Walmart should “EAT THE TARIFFS”
Trump Goes Full Kamala Harris
I failed to note a previous comment by Trump that further highlights the stupidity of it all.
Please consider Donald Trump Plays Walmart CEO
He goes full Kamala Harris in demanding that the retail giant not raise prices.
Mr. Trump’s flip-flop on price controls is a rebuttal of his own previous tariff claims. For months he’s said that foreign producers pay the full cost of tariffs. But now he’s admitting that Walmart, an American retailer, will have to eat some of the costs or pass them on to Americans.
Mr. President is telling a company how to run its business, along with a vague, implicit threat of retribution. Marxist? How would Mr. Trump react if Congress told him how much his family could charge for a Mar-a-Lago fee?
Trump Statements
- Item One: “After causing catastrophic inflation, Comrade Kamala announced that she wants to institute socialist price controls . . . Her plan is very dangerous because it may sound good politically . . . This is Communist; this is Marxist; this is fascist.”
- Item Two: “Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected. Between Walmart and China they should . . . EAT THE TARIFFS, and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!”
When Will the Real Donald Trump Stand Up?
There is no real Donald Trump because he has no lasting positions on anything except tariff stupidity that he blames on everyone else.
What the cult labels 5D chess is a playground sandbox of temper tantrums, bullying, and mud slinging.
When he doesn’t get his way he throws a bullying hissy fit like he did on Walmart.
Bond Market Reaction
Long-term bond yields keep inching up because the bond market has no belief Trump will reduce spending or fix the deficit.
The one big beautiful bill is a fiscal train wreck with Trump as conductor.
The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Senator Ron Johnson (R. WI) explains The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Under every scenario now being considered, federal debt continues to skyrocket from its current level of almost $37 trillion. The CBO’s current projection adds around $22 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in total debt of approximately $59 trillion—134% of GDP—in 2035. That projection assumes an automatic tax increase will occur in 2026 when provisions of the 2017 tax cuts expire, increasing revenue from 17.1% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to an average of 18.1% over the next 10 years. With the CBO projecting 10-year GDP at $373 trillion, that 1% increase represents $3.7 trillion of additional revenue and lower debt.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
Trump has provided no leadership on this bill. It deserves to die. Congrats to the few Republicans willing to stand up.
The cult will now threaten to primary the fiscal hawks. These fools don’t understand that Republican infighting is the last thing Republicans need.
Had Trump provided any leadership and demanded more budget cuts, we would not be where we are.
Don’t blame the Fiscal hawks, blame Trump for being a spineless leader (from a fiscal standpoint) who’s trying to steer a rudderless ship by commanding the wind to blow as he wants.
My fear is this will end the way it always has. More spending on this in return for more spending on that.
Addendum
The One Big Beautiful Bill just passed the House Committee.
Four alleged “hardline” members of the committee’s 21 Republicans allowed the legislation to advance by voting “present” in a rare Sunday night session. The bill passed in a 17-16 vote, with all Democrats voting against it.
A bit of sense lasted a few days.
It’s interesting to see how the bond market reacts not only to fiscal policy but also to corporate moves like Walmart. It’s clear that confidence in deficit control remains fragile.
The yield curve is a mess with multiple inversions.
“My fear is this will end the way it always has. More spending on this in return for more spending on that.”
Human nature has always played out the same way. It’s why these cycles repeat. Roosevelt confiscated gold. The King of France and Catholic Church apparently conspired to confiscate the riches of the Knights Templar, after accusing them of heresy. Spain pillaged gold from native American empires. The American Empire is not unlike the Roman Empire.
If congress this moment balanced the budget, going forward from tomorrow, all deficit spending would have to stop. It would have a huge negative effect on the economy. Medicaid work requirement deferred to 2029, when it becomes the next president’s problem and a new congress may then reverse the rule. More kicking the can. When the can can’t be kicked anymore, “never let a crisis go to waste.”
“The American Empire is not unlike the Roman Empire.”
Right down to the US being ruled by its Praetorian Guard…since JFK assassination at least.
Walmart groomed their supply chains, and it is not unreasonable for Trump to suggest that they absorb some of the costs for that decision. Treasuries are low and below average compared to most post Bretton Woods years. Just roll with it.
Those last days of the Roman Empire. They were a playbook for the future. Bread and circuses. No one wants to touch the third rail. No one wants to suffer a recession or depression, to correct the excesses of record global debt. As Denninger mentioned, the Nasdaq was 62% above the base trend line from 2009 at its recent peak. No one wants to see the NAZ correct back that trend line. Three back to back financial bubbles to stave off the mathematical day of reckoning. Central banks are allegedly buying up gold. Gold is being upped from tier 3 to tier 1, making it of monetary value again. Reset is coming to the global financial system. What is it going to look like when it happens? What, of the details in Webb’s book, The Great Taking, are going to be applied when the time comes? So much counter party risk.
Ah..Moody’s?
So Trump is admitting that the economy was better under Biden than Trump. Gee, I’ve been saying that the economy does better under democrats for years, glad Trump finally agrees.
30 and 20 year above 5 percent this morning. 30 year mortgage rate near 7% again.
Winning! /s
E.J Antoni, PhD:
“The Biden administration claimed to have added almost 400,000 jobs from July through September of last year, but new data released this week suggest none of those jobs ever existed…”
“From March through June of 2024, the economy supposedly added 398,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to the monthly job reports.
However, the BED data shows a net loss of 163,000 private sector jobs during that time period.”
No, the economy doesn’t do better under Democrats than Republicans. Obama had the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. The Great Depression dragged on for years under Roosevelt. The Roaring 20’s happened under Coolidge, a Republican.
So bad he got elected twice.
Checkmate.
Walmart is not the economy. If anything it indicates that people did not have enough money to shop anywhere else.
What? That’s the dumbest thing ever….if Walmart is making huge profits people are spending money there.
What’s Trump worried about then? Why is he barking at Walmart to eat the tariffs? Let’s see how profitable Walmart is now with those tariffs. Let’s see how much prices go up. Let’s see how much inflation comes up.
After which, if you’re intellectually honest with yourself and not in a MAGA cult you’ll see who ran the better economy.
SOS
I like the comparison to a “rudderless ship”. We saw what happened to the rudderless ship in the East River on Saturday evening.
It is a preview of the Trumptanic™ – Massive damage, fatalities, and despair.
sounds like don old is jealous. as for his silly tariffs when will anyone try to educate this business failure?
Some cretins are unteachable
Does this mean Mish is not on board with the megalomaniacal man-child?
The bond market is a very big, complex place. 10 year has been in a big range since 2023. I don’t think WMT rules the bond market. Positioning within the range with leverage and large players, including the Fed, Treasury, SWFs, foreign governments and all of their rules of engagement, does.
more likely the bond market recognizes Trump intends to spend like a drunken sailor after the “big beautiful bill” just like all his predecessors. We needed Rand Paul not an unserious reality star ass clown.
In my most favorite series ever (Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister), Sir Humphrey says at some point that politicians are to blame for the bloated bureaucracy, because they keep legislating. Every new law/act requires an entire new set of bureaucracy, let alone procedures to resolve the new inconsistencies. It’s like the guy who says “I’ll get rid of the junk in my house” and then he just rents offsite storage or moves out himself to a motel, so that the junk can stay in its place.
In my early years in America I noticed that a lot (a lot!) of Hollywood movies had a Government Employee as their hero (a CIA spy, an FBI officer, a Navy Pilot, etc.). Too much government? And Americans were speaking with implied or express disclaimers (“by saying this, I do not mean that“, etc. etc.) and a tone set differently by each successive government.
But life was far more comfortable than in Europe – so it’s not the Land of the Free. It’s the Land of the Comfortable and Compliant.
Let’s see how long the economy can support the Government debt, before they start blaming, charging and bankrupting the rest of us, just like they did in Greece 17 years ago. At least, they had someone to finally bail them out – do we have someone?
Oh no, not the bond market!
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/4/345
Trumpflation and other backwash is here already, plus the fiscal mess unfixed. Trump provided some nudges and value to historic America, though on net, I think not. He really had no plan and vision that could hold together: to the contrary, he fragmented whatever admittedly troubled fabric was here. I think a more coherent successor (I’m not aware of one personally) might build on the better parts. But now, like Herbert Hoover, we have 3 more years of him. I hope Congress is nudged toward recapturing some long-lost dignity and functionality in the meantime.
“Don’t blame the Fiscal hawks, blame Trump for being a spineless leader (from a fiscal standpoint) who’s trying to steer a rudderless ship by commanding the wind to blow as he wants.” – pure gold
The man built it all on a house of fantasy. TV show, fantasy resorts, escapism, flashy distracting imagery, posturing, plus ignoring and obscuring the facts. The 20th century is full of examples (as things like radio and TV appeared), but tech-juiced fantasy manipulation has so overtaken learning and everyday experience, I doubt the lessons are even visible, in this cartoon casino young people (and plenty of adults) are immersed in all day and night.
One of the reasons of rising long term bond yield is “Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. government, citing large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs”.
You should be discussing whether the 2017 TCJA tax exemptions will be allowed to expire, but that would require a deep dive into certain tax policies that have become so absurd as to defy imagination. We are talking about $4 trillion in future lost tax revenue over a nine-year period. Pharmaceutical companies and Ireland should both be concerned. Tax avoidance is not a crime, of course, and you can’t blame companies for taking advantage, but when the distortion becomes so blatant, one can only pressure Congress and hope they can overcome the pharmaceutical lobby to eliminate it.
The lowered corporate rate of the 2017 law was one of the things that made sense. Companies were domiciling in Ireland because the US had the highest corporate tax rate in the world. They also would report their global profits in their foreign subsidiaries for the same reason. Better to get 20% of something than 39% of nothing.
I don’t know about tax favors for pharma. I assume they’ve engineered some sweetheart deal, since they own Congress.
Or instead of getting 20% of something, you put 39% tariff on that same thing coming into the country. Voila, you get your 39% tax rate.
The reason Apple reports from Ireland is to avoid US taxes. That and other companies doing the same is why Trump feels it’s so important to re-shore industries. To prevent tax avoidance.
Our nation mission statement:
Militarism. it’s who we are…
Maybe not as efficient or effective as the Spartans, yet…
Any one of you disagrees is living in an alternate reality.
Trump knows who we are!
MIC4EVER!
Without MIC, there is NO USA!
GET IT?
No medicaid.
No social security.
No rule of law.
No free press.
MIC ISN’T WORTH A TRILLION!
MIC IS priceless 🤑
If we wake up tomorrow to a military coup, I suggest you all to SALUTE!
Please answer this simple question, “what do all our beloved warriors do for work when world peace is upon us?”
Sleep well comrades ….
The CBO’s current projection adds around $22 trillion over the next 10 years
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nice!
There is no real Donald Trump because he has no lasting positions on anything except tariff stupidity that he blames on everyone else.
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and even those views are NOT HIS!
HE READ COUPLE dozen pages from book by another mo1ron who used faked ( and anagram of his own name) name to confirm his stupidity inside of book!
Navarro fellow!
Here come more debt monetization further destroying our middle class
prepare to be a multi-millionaire.
$Trump coins and digital baseball cards to the moon! Too bad he isn’t purveying the vodka any more — something an old acquaintance from USSR Kiev said his friends were all living on: a daily bite of sausage, lots of vodka, and propaganda.
A bank and a nonbank have a symbiotic relationship. But all bank-held savings originate within the commercial banking system. All nonbank savings originate outside the group. You just nationalize the banks, apply reserve requirements to both IBDDs and endogenous deposits in order to sterilize the money.
You nailed it, Mish. Not an ounce of courage in all of DC. We need to move the Capitol to Barrow Alaska so being a congressperson or president isn’t such a life of luxury.
I expected this cave-in. But I sure did not think it would happen tonight, not getting anything out of it.
Sheeesh.
all fiscal hawks were purged from Repug party long ago. jeff flake and mark sanford are two that i knew. don’t forget Raygun was a big government borrow and spender. the boomers were weaned on that con man. i knew as a college kid Raygun was a con man. that was easy to see as his track record in CA was clear. bombs away with chairman mao zeDON
I understand there is a betting group that is taking bets on whether or not trump can keep his mouth shut and not “tweet” for one day. Unfortunately, there aren’t anyone willing to bet that he can.