The Fed has a two-day meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. The last two-day meeting in which the Fed gave Economic Projections was in March.
In March, the year-over-year CPI was 2.6%. Since then, inflation as measured by the CPI has been on a tear.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Fed Economic Projections March 2021
In March, the Fed projected inflation to be around 2% through 2023. The Fed uses a PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) measure of inflation not a CPI measure.
The PCE has been running well below the CPI. PCE includes items purchased on behalf of consumers (corporate-paid medical care is the most significant example) whereas the CPI only contains items the consumer directly buys.
The CPI weighs rent far more heavily than than PCE. Neither measure directly includes housing prices. They both fail miserably as inflation measures.
Dot Plot
The dot plot in March shows unanimous opinion among Fed participants there would be no hikes this year. In 2021, only 3 of 17 expected a hike.
Fantasyland Projections
Previous dot plots highlight Fantasyland projections.
Clown Act
I am curious as to which Fed clown predicted a 5% Fed Funds rate for 2020. Another predicted 4%.
Such predictions are amazing in light of what they would do to interest on national debt.
Fed Chases Its Tail
Dot plots are to be faded and mocked not believed as the Fed chases its tail.
Whatever the Fed comes up with on Wednesday for long-term expectations, don’t expect it to be any better than a coin flip as to what will happen (and most likely far worse).
The Fed is behind the inflation curve for now. It will be interesting to see how that translates into Fed expectations of future hikes.
Gold Falling, Yields Rising
The yield on the 10-year note and 30-year long bond are up 3 basis points and 4 basis points respectively today. Gold is down another $13 or so on the day.
For about a week, gold has been falling and yields rising as if we will get important revelations on Wednesday.
Here’s a clue: We won’t.
Is Inflation Transitory?
For discussion of those who believe inflation to be transitory, please consider Economist David Rosenberg Says the Bond Market Has Inflation Right
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