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Jamie Dimon Stockpiles Cash, Thinks Inflation is Here to Stay, Fears PayPal

Stockpiling Cash

Jamie Dimon says he is stockpiling cash because there’s a  ‘Very Good Chance’ Inflation is Here to Stay.

Key Ideas 

  • “We have a lot of cash and capability and we’re going to be very patient, because I think you have a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory,” said Dimon, the longtime JPMorgan CEO.
  • “If you look at our balance sheet, we have $500 billion in cash, we’ve actually been effectively stockpiling more and more cash waiting for opportunities to invest at higher rates,” Dimon said. “I do expect to see higher rates and more inflation, and we’re prepared for that.”
  • Dimon warned that banks were under threat from fintech and Big Tech players including PayPal, which has a larger market capitalization than nearly all U.S. banks.
  • Dimon disclosed that the bank’s automated investing service You Invest has garnered about $50 billion in assets, despite the fact that “we don’t even think it’s a very good product yet.”

$500 Billion in Cash

That JPMorgan has $500 billion is cash is not really an inflation story. Rather, it’s a function of Fed policy.

  1. The Fed via QE has crammed cash down the throats of banks, suppressing yields.
  2. Banks in general, not just JPMorgan, have a dearth of qualified borrowers seeking loans.

Regarding point 2, banks do not lend from reserves or deposits. Banks lend when they have qualified customers seeking loans. 

Even if Dimon believes the inflation setup, I do not buy his story as he presents. He could have and should have mentioned the QE aspect as to why banks are sitting on cash.

For discussion, please see Banks are So Stuffed With Cash They Tell Companies: No More Deposits

Mish

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31 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
PostCambrian
PostCambrian
5 years ago
I just think Dimon means that he is holding cash as opposed to buying Treasuries or other bonds. He wasn’t trying to give a reason why Chase has the assets but Chase does have the option of where to park the assets.  He has chosen cash over bonds due to the expectation of rising rates.
KidHorn
KidHorn
5 years ago
Reply to  PostCambrian
That’s my read too.
Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat
5 years ago
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Jackula
Jackula
5 years ago
Assets are way overpriced, he can sit on borrowed cash making a real 2% rate of return. Why take any risk in this environment? What a horrific financial situation we have thanks to the central banks.
whirlaway
whirlaway
5 years ago
Banks have “a dearth of qualified borrowers seeking loans”??    Well, we just have to abolish the minimum wage, Mish!   That will solve that particular problem, huh?!  😉
anoop
anoop
5 years ago
My money is on Michael Burry and Jamie Dimon.  We are going to see inflation like most of the people won’t remember in their lifetimes.  We will be seeing double digit inflation in the next 5 years.  Why do you think private equity is buying up every house that they can get their hands on, bidding $100k+ over asking? 
Jackula
Jackula
5 years ago
Reply to  anoop
Real negative 1% interest. They are making 1% per year in real terms without any appreciation. Real estate to the moon with this setup!
KidHorn
KidHorn
5 years ago
Reply to  anoop
You need increasing demand and/or diminishing supply to get inflation. I can see it in a few sectors like real estate, but I don’t see how it will be widespread.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
5 years ago
Oh yeah, I, too, see inflation. That’s why I’ve changed everything to cash. Just like Dimon. … Says.
And, like any good soothsayer, I see hyper-inflation in your future. But beware of a catastrophic stock market crash.
Intelligentyetidiot
Intelligentyetidiot
5 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
isnt cash a terrible choice in a inflationary environment ? What am I missing here?
Carl_R
Carl_R
5 years ago
Cash is not good to hold during an inflationary environment, however it is good to hold just as the inflationary environment begins.  When the economy is making a transition, investment opportunities may present themselves.
amigator
amigator
5 years ago
If anyone believes we would get the real truth from the head of the JP Morgan Crime syndicate, well I have a piece of fantastic water front property to sell you!
anoop
anoop
5 years ago
Reply to  amigator
Invisible art is the new water front property.  You can actually provide a certificate of authenticity for it.
shamrock
shamrock
5 years ago
Fine wine and top of the line whiskey make good inflation hedges.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
5 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
As long as they don’t end up in my belly 🙂
Cocoa
Cocoa
5 years ago
So he is “holding cash(deflationary move)” in an “inflationary environment” which is absurd as you would want to get out of the dollar fast…
AND
He is waiting for higher rates in a zero rate environment.
That’s the sit on your hands strategy to me…
caradoc-again
caradoc-again
5 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
If you expect a market meltdown what can he do? Cash will buy more on a market setback, possibly long term bonds will rise as authorities push yields down but cash isn’t so bad sometimes.
I’m concerned there will be an event within 18 months that will make losing 10-15% to inflation over the period (possibly less) look like a good move.
When the setback hits gold will fall too for a while. Gold isn’t acting as well as I would expect as is.
Something is not as it should be.
Be ready with some liquidity.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
5 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
Its a Fed bank. It doesn’t matter what strategy he uses. The top handful of banks will never be allowed to fail. Were you asleep between the years of 2007 to 2011 ?
numike
numike
5 years ago
Americans’ inflation fears reach a fever pitch as consumer prices rise https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/americans-inflation-fears-reach-a-new-high-after-consumer-prices-jump.html
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
5 years ago
Loans at 0% or negative interest rates are being put into the cash rather than debt column on the balance sheet even for non-banks.
Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
That’s funny. I have been building cash too mainly because I can’t find anything interesting. Glad to see I am not alone.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Banks will soon make you pay for keeping your cash, some banks are already doing so, ING Belgium charges 0,5% on  250k+ ‘saving’ accounts….others will follow suit ….   
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
5 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Isn’t ING The online bank? I bet if the lean bank has nowhere to invest the 0% savings, the system is close to saturation from printing gone haywire.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
5 years ago
ING is  a ‘normal’ bank, N° 1 in The Netherlands, the 4th largest one in Belgium with offices everywhere….
amigator
amigator
5 years ago
It was an online bank in the US and very good I thought. Capital one bought them or the Fed made them sell. Capital one wasn’t too bad either.
Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Hasn’t happened yet here although they would like to. Funny the French subsidiary of ING doesn’t do it but the Belgium ING does. I guess ING loves their French clients more than the Belgium ones. I hear they slap a tax on new clients but hesitate to do that on the old long-term ones like me. 
caradoc-again
caradoc-again
5 years ago
Strangely I’ve been raising cash too and sit on more now than at any time in the past as an absolute amount and % of portfolio. I am prepared to sit for 12+ months and expect a chance to allocate before end of 2022. Erosion due to inflation is less than ideal but no reason to take on some of the risks I see abounding. Emerging markets value makes some sense but little else currently.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
5 years ago
Reply to  caradoc-again
‘Emerging Markets’ ? EMs will simply fall apart if rates were to rise !
caradoc-again
caradoc-again
5 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
I said Emerging Market Value.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
5 years ago
LOL!  JP Morgan is ready to buy 500 bln worth of bonds, other banks sitting on immense piles of cash will undoubtedly follow suit !  What do you think would be the effect on interest rates ? Does it really take grossly overpaid ‘pundits’ to reach certain conclusions ?
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
5 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
He didn’t say bonds. When rates rise, the prices of everything falls as everyone heads for the exit.
However, when the muppets see inflation, they closed their eyes. It has worked for them when they were children.

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