I have been proposing for days that that French President Emmanuel Macron may not offer the January 31 extension that the Benn Act requests.
Today, I stick with that assessment.
The only other site with a similar view that I am aware of is Eurointelligence.
Here is the Eurointelligence take from this morning.
In Brussels, people seem to have finally noticed that Emmanuel Macron does not agree with Donald Tusk on Brexit. We have been warning readers for some time not to take the French position for granted. Brussels correspondents of UK media and other commentators have a tendency to misread the French position, especially at times when that position shifts.
He has no interest in a no-deal Brexit, but is more keen than other EU leaders to leave Brexit behind. He may not get his way on a mid-November end date. But we would expect him eventually to prevail with the argument that the EU cannot extend Brexit forever. The time will come when the EU will have to pull the plug.
He might even go along with a January extension, in exchange for a binding end date. What we need to look out for in the EU discussion right now is the extent to which Macron’s arguments are winning support among other leaders. When Charles Michel takes over from Tusk at the end of the week, Macron will have an important ally as president of the European Council. Of all the top level appointments made during the summer, Michel’s might have been the most important.
Eurointelligence Sees Three Possibilities
- The EU extends until end-November. The UK would have just enough time to conclude the Brexit process. There is a caucus in the UK parliament working behind the scene towards a new programme motion – that would extend the discussions on the Brexit legislation to a few more weeks. Of the likely amendments, only a second referendum would be damaging. If that were to pass, Johnson would pull the legislation. But a second referendum is still around 40 seats short of a majority. The probability of a customs union amendment is higher, but ultimately less destructive. The next parliament is only bound by the withdrawal agreement, but is free to determine the framework for the future relationship.
- The EU extends until end-January, with flexible break-dates. In theory, the same could happen as above, but we think a long extension would have the effect to frustrate the discussions in the UK parliament. A parliamentary majority for an election emerges – possibly a coalition between the Tories and the SNP.
- The final scenario is that the impasse goes beyond January. In theory, it could last until 2022 because the majorities will not. This would be the scenario where the binding end-date discussion becomes important. Tusk took the view that extension would help the Remain cause. which is why he keeps supporting it. We think the premise is wrong. The longer this goes on, the stronger the pro-Brexit forces in the UK will become. Labour has no incentives to support an election now. If they continue to trail in the polls, they might continue to oppose elections. It does not matter what Jeremy Corbyn might have said at some point. When John McDonnell was asked about elections last night, he said that sure, he was in favour, but first he wanted to unite the country. In other words: no. So, yes, the situation could continue until 2022.
Eurointelligence says those are in “no particular order”.
I commented earlier this morning on amendments. Here is a Tweet to reconsider.
Trapdoor
I commented “That is pure nonsense. The trapdoor cannot be removed by the UK. Say an amendment passes requiring the next PM to not go for a WTO Brexit. The next government can easily pass new legislation allowing it.” Eurointelligence said the same thing in point one above regarding the “future relationship”.
In regards to a referendum. There won’t be one. Even the Liberal Democrats agree.
EU Extends To January With Flexible End Dates
This came up today in several places including the BBC and Guardian Live.
Sorry, that makes no sense and cannot legitimately solve any French demand as is. It provides no incentive for the UK Remainers to do anything but wait until January 31. I doubt France would fall for that straight up, but it is possible.
I reviewed the options yesterday in EU Postpones Brexit Extension Request. Let’s go over them again.
Option Review
- Very Short: 10 days or less
- Short: 11 days to 3 weeks
- Intermediate: longer than 3 weeks but no longer than Jan 31.
- Long: Anything beyond Jan 31. That’s what Tusk wants.
- Flexible: Makes no sense UK will not do anything but delay. But I do not rule it out.
- Conditional: France demands a way forward such as elections.
Options 1-4 are mutually exclusive.
Options 5 applies to options 1-4.
Option 6 applies to options 1-3. A way forward rules out a long extension and perhaps even an intermediate extension.
Increased Chance of No Deal
I believe, as does the Eurointelligence, and likely France as well January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal.
Eurointelligence did not discuss point 6, a conditional extension.
I believed all along that is where we are headed and odds of that just rose.
This just in from Guardian Live on the position of Amélie de Montchalin, France’s Europe minister. She told RTL radio that giving more time would solve nothing unless there was concrete action in place in the UK.
“Our position is that simply giving more time – without political change, without ratification, without an election – would be useless.
The French position is to give more time if it is justified, if we understand why more time is needed. That could be more time to ratify, because there’s a deal on the table. Or it could be because they say want to hold elections. Then we’ll look at that.
But it’s one thing to say we’d like to maybe have elections and another thing to say elections have been organised.
We’re partners. We live 50km from each other. We’ll stay strong partners and neighbours, we’ll have a future relationship. So this is not about an ultimatum, it’s about getting clarity.
We need clarity … so our work is not about giving ultimatums, nor confrontation. But we do need to know why we would be giving more time. Simply giving more time alone leads to getting stuck in a rut.
If there’s a clear scenario that will change things, for example a ratification or elections – not just suggested but organised – then we can take decisions. But we ask Britain for facts – we’re not in fictional politics, we need facts to make decisions.
Decisions will be taken in the next hours and days in terms of what the UK parliament says and what has really been actioned [in the UK].”
No Long Extension Without Conditions
Montchalin denied France wanted to give Britain an ultimatum. Label it how you like, but it’s a reasonable demand that stops perpetual delays.
If accurate, and I believe it is. There will not be an unconditional extension until January 31.
I suspect the “flex” extension most expected will not be what they expect. Rather, it will be a simple choice.
UK’s No “Fictional Politics” Choice
- Accept the Withdrawal Agreement with an extension no longer than three weeks (and possibly much shorter).
- Commit to elections before mid-January (and possibly mid-December or early-January).
This morning Johnson proposed December 12. The EU may accept that date as reasonable.
Something along these lines is now my most likely case.
Remainer’s Nasty Choice
If accurate, Remainers will have a nasty choice, not “fictional politics” as France’s Europe minister aptly phrases things.
This will be discussed Monday. The UK will have 3 days to decide between an election, ratification, referendum, No Deal.
And Eurointelligence scenario 3: “The situation could continue until 2022” vanishes into dust.
Way Forward – Addendum
Assuming the EU does demand a way forward, expect elections.
Reuters reported this afternoon “Scotland’s Sturgeon asks Labour’s Corbyn to back snap general election“.
This makes perfect sense, actually. I have commented on this idea before.
SNP and Even Lib Democrats want elections far more than Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn.
I am almost surprised Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems are not on board too. Why? Guess what happens to the Lib Dem Remain platform if there is a deal before an election?
Thus, don’t be surprised to see Swinson back an election if the offer from the EU is conditional. Swinson won’t back an election in a losing cause but if SNP is on board, there is a good chance.
Finally, Swinson cannot stand Corbyn. She has an alternate agenda and that is to get rid of Corbyn.
Labour will get smashed in the next election by running on a wishy-washy referendum idea while Swinson runs on a Remain platform.
As for Sturgeon, she has a legitimate case to demand another Referendum because conditions have changed. She will lose, heavily, but she might get her referendum.
The Math
How will Labour vote if presented the choice I gave above?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Macron’s mind? He has a mind? 🙂
As Francois Baroin remarked about Macron: “He says nothing about nothing, and probably doesn’t think much more than that about it either.”
Marine Le Pen said to him in a debate: “You have an insane talent, you end up speaking for seven minutes, I cannot even summarize your train of thought, you have said nothing, it is like the absolute void between the stars.”
Macron himself noted: “We all have our roots. And because we are all deeply rooted, there are trees next to us… there are rivers, there are fish… There are brothers and sisters…”
Indeed.
Still beat the crap out of the fascist didn’t he.
The EU is already destroyed…. by the likes of Macron and Merkel.
Any self sustaining “union” of states must have support of the general population, not just the edicts of two egotistical nutjobs.
Macron’s selfishness is the reason the EU will not last, and it doesn’t matter what England does or doesn’t do.
Time to stop bickering about legal loopholes in UK Parliament and start the countdown clock for the entire EU
We seldom disagree Mish, but we’re at odds on the French position here. Sure, Macron doesn’t want to fall out with all his EU chums but he desperately wants to be seen to lead, both by other nations and for his domestic audience.
Remember also that the UK is everything to the EU that the French don’t want. We’d continue to rail against the common agricultural policy, Euro army, bigger Europe, shared debt. bigger budget, anti-Atlanticism, etc. But if forced to stay by parliamentary scuppering, we’d be ten times worse than we were.
He can’t wait to see the back of us and before long, the demise of Merkel, who’s far to keep to hold out any hope of us staying.
A two tier extension is perfect for Macron, “Okay, I’ll go along with the other 26 because I’m a good European, but we should try and help them out earlier if we can and by the way, we need a line under it this time to stop it. They can have their second referndum, they can vote the LibDems into power, but they’re going and we’re getting on with business.”
.
Maybe, just maybe, Macron is playing the odds.
Macron might be thinking like Mish: Heads Boris wins, Tails Boris wins. The stated reason for waiting until Tuesday is to try to get Corbyn to commit to a GE since otherwise things can remain in limbo forever, esp. given Labour has little reason to want a GE right now no matter what Corbyn says to the contrary.
Now: Boris has offered pushing the Deal through Parliament followed by a GE.
So maybe Macron is figuring: either they get the Deal through by mid-November (tres bon), or if it is amended to death and gets pulled, then there’s an election which BJ will win and then the Deal as is will go through (aussi tres bon).
But if they can’t get Corbyn to commit, there are enough players in the EU and this Hung Parliament to keep things in limbo forever, which he definitely doesn’t want (tres mauvais).
Maybe Macron and BJ have agreed: if Macron pressures Corbyn to commit (which is happening), Johnson will stick with the Deal as is and not push for a harder Brexit scenario after winning the Election. (tres bon)
If Boris finagles No Deal or goes too hard – breaking private assurances he has made (tres mauvais) – then Macron retaliates by bottling Calais or sending in their largest fishing trawlers into favourite English trawling grounds – or some such (absolument affreux!).
This assumes, basically, that they have agreed to operate as friends through all this so that France and UK enjoy good relations. BJ needed a partner on the EU side to help break the perpetual stalemate. (Passez moi le vin et le fromage s’il vous plait, cher Boris!)
If Boris loses the GE, well EU will be getting a much softer Brexit, or more likely Remain will win out. But Mish and others are saying Macron doesn’t want that – which I tend to agree is correct. If so, he is motivated to help push through this Deal, and since the big obstacle is the UK Parliament, the lynchpin of which is Corbyn, this gambit really is mainly directed at forcing the pusillanimous Corbyn to leap. (Finalement, mon brave!)
And maybe Macron has got Johnson to agree that if he somehow gets No Deal on Oct 31st if Corbyn won’t budge, then negotiations will continue on the same basis as the Deal.(Roulez Relax!)
And finally, Macron is sending a signal to Remainers on both sides of the Channel: as long as the Withdrawal Act remains in place, France will no longer grant further extensions, so the ‘let’s keep Boris prisoner in #10 until 2023’ and/or ‘let’s wait until the Sacre Brits give up on all this nonsense’ approach just ran out of oxygen. He might also help curtail attempts to drag the negotiations on for 3 years as well. (Magnifique! Encore de champagne?)
It’s a Win-Win for both sides. (A bas les Boches!)
(Life would be so much simpler, if we ran the world, wouldn’t it?!)
lol, good analysis
Macron is refusing to go along with the EU
France is the voice of resistance but, Reuters is reporting that the delay vote is shelved till next week to “give Parliament time to consider their options.” So, as it stands there is an agreement to delay, but not an agreement to how long or any possible conditions, in other words till next week it will be seen by the remainers as an open ended extension.
In the end Macron will not be happy if there is a long delay that encourages remainers, he clearly wants this over with, especially since he thinks the EU has a deal on the table that is the best it will ever get. But, I doubt he will use the veto power this late in the game if there is a possibility that it will cause the UK to crash out without a deal.
The tweet I saw suggested that Macron wouldnt agree an extension unless there was a clear timetable for making Brexit happen. I interpret that to mean if the deal is agreed, then we will extend to allow that to be ratified, but if it isnt agreed that Brexit will go ahead as no extension will be granted, i.e. if the remainers try and get an open ended extension, then no extension will be granted and a Hard Brexit occurs.
I am of course very much hoping for a Hard Brexit and maybe I want it to happen too much. When you want something you can look at something unsceptically and hope that it is true when it isnt. I am hoping that my rose tinted spectacles are seeing this clearly, but on the face of it, help does seem to be coming to Brexiteers in the shape of Mr Macron.
If he holds the line, and I personally doubt that he will, but assuming that he does, then remainers have a choice. Allow the ratification to happen unamended, or, if they amend it then Boris will pull it and that brings about Hard Brexit.
If this is really true, then Brexit happens in some shape or form and quite quickly too. Can we rely on Macron to deliver though?
Oddly I can still get to MishTalk from the office, but from home I can not as I get redirected to some Maven Sports NBA Cavaliers site.
I’m puzzled by the belief that the cuckold Macron will put his foot down and put a stop to this silliness. That would risk losing the £10 billion per annum plus unhindered access to the world’s fifth largest economy that the EU gets for very little in return. And with the exception of the brutal suppression of the Yellow Vest protests, Macron isn’t the kind to take a risky stand on anything.
I’d love to be wrong, but I just don’t see anything in this creature that convinces me that it is a vertebrate.
Brexit is not a good topic for Labour. If the small parties do not support Corbyn as interim PM, then the deal will pass “accidentally” like the second reading did. He wants to exclude any other option, therefore he wants a short deadline.
There is exactly one thing that is bad for Labour: a general election before Johnson’s deal is settled somehow. It can be accepted or rejected, not much of a problem, but it must be settled. Corbyn will oppose the election until that happens.
Deep,
I agree. Ironically Labour need Brexit if they are to be socialist. You cant have proper socialist policies and open borders. Labour should be 100% behind Brexit.
But they are all mixed up on it, I suspect due to the darker arts of politics some are making choices that they would rather not make. Labour must really be hoping that Brexit happens despite appearances. Once it is done, then there wont be any going back to the EU in the near future and it ceases to become a major issue. The reasons for not voting Labour wont be Brexit related any more, so that should help them get some of their support back. They might take a bit longer to rebuild the trust that they have lost though.
Yes, we are talking about the same thing. Of course, there are many people in Labour who want to keep the status quo and don’t like the socialist route at all. They are the most dangerous opponents of Corbyn, not the Euroskeptics or anyone in other parties.
‘Downing Street has said if the EU offers a Brexit delay the Government can change the date of departure through secondary legislation, known as a statutory instrument.’
Can anyone explain this to me in English?
I think this refers to a long flexstension. If new date is, say, 31st January that becomes the new “latest” date. If UK and EU have all legislation in place before then it becomes possible to bring the date forward. This would be done (in UK case) using a simple Statutory Instrument effectively a formal statement to Parliament. It would not need to be a new Act with days of debate and tooing and froing between Commons and Lords.
Happy St Crispins day. What was the score again at Agincourt? England 10,000, France 100? A decisive win for England methinks … Ah the glory days, set to return ‘ere long.
The English commons won the France nobels thanks luck. The French mismanaged their own crowd control.
The French mismanaged their own crowd control.
————————-
They haven’t learned much in 600 years, have they?
Well – Strike my “certainly tomorrow” (now today) decision by the EU.
Rumors say the EU want to see Monday’s vote and the Opposition wants to see the EU act first
Who knows – all rumors
Time Helps Johnson if he is going to disobey Benn – which I doubt – Otherwise no help – depending of course on exactly what the EU decides.
I do expect conditions. Way Forward demand will end the perpetual extensions
Yes, the EU shelving the delay decision till next week seems to send a message to the remainers that the EU is willing to do them a favor with unconditional open ended extensions, that is the signal I would get from it. I think Macron was ruffled because he sees it as Johnson claims to see it, they have the best deal they are ever going to get on the table and they can take it now, or risk a high probability of a UK hard Brexit. It goes without saying that remainers are working hand in hand with the EU so perhaps they have cooked up a strategy that they think will work. Given the obvious bias of the UK courts I would not be betting on any Brexit decisions from them to go Johnson’s way, yet also no decisions that outright void the original referendum. The plan seems to be simply stall forever.
My real question is one that has floated around for a while now, will all these EU/remainer delays and parliamentary tactics result in a bloodbath for the Tories? Or, for the Lab/LibDems? Or are the two sides so entrenched that there is no way to compromise at all? To listen to Avid I am thinking this could go all the way to a break up of the UK. Which would be fine by me. But it might be that is a wish of the EU as well, though not of the remainers. Had that been exploited a couple years ago it might have born fruit, perhaps Johnson could use that to swing some remainer votes to conservatives in the inevitable election, sooner or later terms will end and there will be a vote.
Disobeying Benn, well, it seems parliament has passed a lot of bills and acts with but one goal, frustrate the Article 50 and the people’s vote. There is enough in them to be considered contradictory so that the PM cannot actually comply with all and not break demands of other laws. I would think upon reading Benn that it is no longer valid, it says if an agreement is not reached by October 19 that the PM must ask for an extension which somehow the remains KNEW would happen. Of course, their partners in Brussels knew it would happen, the EU uses the remainers in their scheming. But, the point is that the terms of Benn have been met, and any further imposition upon the government is really just a form of extortion and usurpation of government powers. A minority in parliament has effectively made any no deal Brexit a legal impossibility while at the same time reserving veto power over any possible deal. And they have what is probably the single most biased court on the planet behind them so legal efforts will be fruitless.
This will have to come down to elections, a GE that can be seen as a proxy for a second referendum. Too bad Trump is so weakened by impeachment (at least for these purposes) that he cannot step in and demand that the EU/UK get a deal done now for the good of the alliance and business or face tariffs on both side that are increasingly punitive, say 10% now, and another 10% every 6 months till it is resolved. If nothing else it would send a message that we are not going to be friendly to more delay, it is not good for business.
[EDIT] Edit is working again.
Brexit uncertainty is costlly for the UK but also for the EU. Since France is the main connection point to the UK, France is the most concerned about sorting this out.
The French are fed up and frankly think the English are being wankers. If they really want to go, then they should go. But as is obvious, the Brits don’t want to really go; they want to have their cake and eat it, too.
The UK does not want a No Deal Brexit. Some irresponsible politicians do, riding the xenophobic ignorance to the polls and getting ready to blame post-Brexit on Remainers. Most voters want a deal or believe that they have the right to leave with many of the benefits of membership but none of the annoying responsibilities (like paying a mere £10 billion a year or having to classify cucumbers by shape).
By the way, how are the clowns doing? Batting 100% it seems while the pitcher’s ERA is reaching five digits.
There is a fair %age that do
Fishing rights are a big deal for many in EU, but especially France and especially North.
Guess what else is in the North?
Calais, the UK’s main transit point in and out of Europe.
BJ and Macron have worked out something….
A possibility seems to have been missed. Macron could conclude that there is no likely of the UK Parliament approving anything, and veto any extension. His precedent for this would be Charles de Gaulle, who vetoed UK membership in the EEC. Twice. 1963 and 1967. “veto” appears to be a reasonable reading of Amelie de Montchalin’s statement.
There has to be some extension now. The deal needs to be ratified – takes time
Regardless – that’s wishful thinking. – minimum extension would likely be 10 days to 2-3 week.
Seems AvidRemainer is back
I want comments on my election math the other day – Earliest possible date
I have answered you. Its on the post where you quite rightly accused me of being a nit-picker.
Its still there from 2 hrs ago, the one with 53 comments.
Welcome back avidremainer. Missed you and your “liar” accusations
🙂 Speak for yourself.
The liar has been called a liar for the last 25 years. There is no doubt that he is a liar. He was at liberty to take any of the people who called him a liar to court for slander and/or libel. He didn’t and won’t because he knows he would lose. He was accuse by Eddie Mair on BBC2 of being a ” Nasty piece of work “. He had no answer largely because the previous 15 minutes of the program had proven beyond peradventure that he was/is a nasty piece of work.
Addendum Added
Thanks Herkie!
“I see at Reuters this afternoon that Nikola Sturgeon secretly asked Corbyn to support a GE”
Makes perfect sense. I have commented on this before.
SNP and Even Lib Dems want elections far more than Corbyn.
Almost surprised Lib Dems are not on board too. Guess what happens to their Remain platform if there is a deal before an election.
Thus, don’t be surprised to see Swinson back a GE if the offer from the EU is conditional.
Will add this to my article.
Look at us Europeans, Mish. Aren’t we providing you with massive amounts of material, amusement and incomprehensibly bad politics? Of course, as bad as it is, 2020 is going to be an even bigger year for you, with the freakshow of American politics in full swing. Keep on going strong!
Harry, why do you think we left in 1776? And formed a government that is two party with a strong WRITTEN constitution. The two parties might occasionally get too friendly, but unlike parliamentary politics it does not turn into an outright bestial orgy. 2020 will be momentous for the states, with some pretty evil crap going on, but, there is strength in our system that Europe just cannot fathom, one thing is pretty clear though, something MUST happen related to wealth inequality because it has reached the point of no return. The homeless will have their own political party by the end of 2021 the way things are going, they are already taking shifts on the better begging spots on the streets. I went to McDonalds (emergency feeding I think of it) and there were a whole entirely different crew of panhandlers on the way out than there was on the way in. Restroom doors at all McD’s now have code locks to keep them out, you have to buy something to get the code. There is one that even keeps the heat off in winter in the dining area to discourage them from coming in to buy a single $1 coffee and sit for 4 hours drinking it. Taking turns having a bath in the restrooms.
the homeless can/will effectively be prevented from voting
I know they will in Oregon where I live, all voting here is by mail. If you have no address you get no vote.
Yes, but Country Bob doesn’t like it!
Perhaps he started his own blog as I suggested.
I kind of miss him. Bring Back Bob!
Really, most of what he said was ” you are all a bunch of see you next Tuesdays ”
Don’t discount the sheer pleasure these women get in having a captive Alpha Male type to boss around. How many times have they got up to berate him for bad behaviour and demand he apologise? They get to do this in front of the entire country… to the Prime Bloody Minister for Chrissakes! Bloody marvelous! Gets you drinks all round for life!
Hard to forego such pleasures for the drab certainty of an early winter campaign after which you – or if not you many of your most whiny, hectoring supporters – get booted out of Parliament for Christmas!
That said, am surprised the Tories aren’t offering their being given the collective boot as their surprise national Christmas present to the nation. But of course they need to get the pre-Xmas date set before they ramp up the Turkey Ads which are surely coming and which, on their own, will assure victory. AG Cox is going to get knighted at least, if not a peerage, for that great speech and thunderingly timeless closing line!
“If after next election there is still a Hung Parliament, nothing will get through again unless EU holds firm (because they actually like the arrangement). “
That is Tusk’s view – NOT France – and it only takes one.
The UK will sink Macron’s agenda in the European Parliament and France, not Germany gets extra MPs when the UK leaves
Tusk is gone tomorrow!
Mish, Herman Van Rompuy was succeeded by Tusk, and Tusk is being succeeded by another Belgian, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, so is there some rule that Belgians get that post every other term?
Suppose the EU offers and extension of some sots.
How long till UK must accept/reject it?
Could BJ delay “Reject” to the 30th?
Or, could legal challenges result in similar delayed of “Reject”?
Going to have to wait since the EU now says no decision on a delay till Monday after Parliament has debated. Meaning Tuesday the 29th at earliest to accept, if he accepts.
Right. This isn’t ridiculous at all.
So a country where the majority of its people voted to leave the EU three mothersticking years ago, is now waiting for a decision by an EU memberstate whether or not they’re allowed to leave on some arbitrary timetable?
I edit the above remark to add in a few words but somehow the last part with ‘ridiculous’ disappeared! Anyway…. I think what I said was that the entire process is ridiculous but also damaging.
Oh I fully agreed with your comment. But like I’ve mentioned here many times, in the end, it’s the British people who ought to hold these politicians accountable. Of course, the society is (either by design or as a result of failed policies) lacking cohesion. It’s the most repugnant example of everyday workingclass people versus snobs, the financial sector and elitists where nothing has been achieved, other than projecting fear and causing division into any potential movement that goes against the interest of said cabal. It’s the perfect example of the evil that is this union. It was presented as an economic union, but it’s ultimate goal is a fiscal union, one currency and one government. I’ve voted against it twice and still, it was forced upon us. And that’s why I’m howling at the moon here on Mish’s blog. I can’t stand or stomach this union.
One thing is for sure, if the endless extensions and delays go on long enough the UK will break up, only as an EU member they won’t be allowed to. Because it is not the whole UK that is divided, Scotland, NI, and Wales all voted to stay in the EU and England voted to leave, and their vote was strong enough to carry the rest. If the English people want it bad enough they will simply terminate the union and go their own way, just like the people of Catalonia. Whoooooops. Clearly once in the EU there is no getting out or change of any kind, it just is not in the interests of the ECB to do so.
Wales actually voted to Leave. And we still want to despite the Welsh Politicians saying otherwise.
AHA! I knew there was something fishy about that map the Independent (Ironic name for them) had up on the web. Good for Wales. So a break up is actually easier, NI can unify with the ROI and Scotland can go diddle itself for all I care.
So, this is the well thought out plan that the Brexiteers to enact Brexit. The plan hasn’t worked out very well so far, are you all still sure this is going to be a good idea in the long term?
This is a gross misrepresentation of ‘Brexiteers’ and you damn well know it. If you’re looking to blame someone from this mess, it isn’t the voter. I shouldn’t have to explain democracy to you, right? Well, having said that, perhaps I’m confusing democracy to the shitshow that is the United Kingdom’s display of ‘governance’. In that case, maybe your confusion is actually justified.
I keep asking them why they need a deal at all. If you plan to diverge from the EU why not just do it. What is the point of two parties negotiating how you are going to diverge? Ludicrous.
Correct.
First they should separate, then they should negotiate from that basis. By not doing so, all sorts of endless procedural delay is baked into the cake.
And that’s been obvious from the get-go. So not doing it is a sign of bad faith on both sides – or exceptional stupidity (though most likely, it’s a combination of the two).
“So, this is the well thought out plan that the Brexiteers to enact Brexit.”
Us leavers in the main just want a Hard Brexit, no negotiations.
The problem we have is that most MPs are for Remain and blocking us leaving. If you remember the way they kept Leavers out of Parliament in the first place was by offering a referendum which they lost. Then they pledged to carry out the referendum result and they lied about that, so the remainers are still in Parliament and doing what they do best which is to delay and pretend that it is all too difficult and the sky will fall if we leave. The plan to leave, imo, was concocted by Remainers to make it look like they were trying to get out in a controlled way whilst actually just playing for time.
“I keep asking them why they need a deal at all.” – Avid is right here. The only reason for trying to do a deal is to get one or two of the remainer majority in Parliament to agree to it. We Leavers don’t want a deal. But us Leavers have been kept out of Parliament and it is currently populated by Remainers who will do anything to overturn the referendum.
“The only reason for trying to do a deal is to get one or two of the remainer majority in Parliament to agree to it. We Leavers don’t want a deal. But us Leavers have been kept out of Parliament and it is currently populated by Remainers who will do anything to overturn the referendum.”
That’s it in a nutshell. It’s all about Parliament and has been for some time. I suspect May’s election results were rigged to ensure this Hung Parliament situation, frankly, but in any case, you can’t pass Brexit with an anti-Brexit Parliament. (For which reason, it should be down to Parliament to ratify once the referendum was done, needed a different setup somehow.)
But this is why Corbyn isn’t entirely stupid to be insisting on taking No Deal off the table, because he knows that’s the only sensible way to get Brexit done and his Party just won’t accept it so neither can he.
Well, I just hope that Macron comes through and creates a deadline that can no longer be extended. Because right now the Parliament can say in situ for another two years and can inject itself into Govt with unconstitutional Laws like the Benn Act ad infinitum. So there are no boundaries and HMG has been castrated away from being able to impose any. But a deadline from the EU is enough to change this endless limbo. Indeed, everything going on now (and for the last few months) is an attempt to get an election to change the Parliament so that something can happen. Because as long as this Parliament is sitting, nothing will happen.
Frankly, I don’t think it makes much difference – within reason – what is in the WA or whether or not there is No Deal. The same bunch will be sitting around the table for a year or so hammering out the details, ideally along Free Trade / Independence lines. But again: with this Parliament, neither will happen.
If after next election there is still a Hung Parliament, nothing will get through again unless EU holds firm (because they actually like the arrangement). But if the next Govt has a majority, as looks possible for the Brexiteers – they can make things happen one way or another and will be in a strong enough position to probably get what is needed to finally untangle from EU control.
regarding my comment yesterday: “Johnson refuses to stand down.”
Deep Purple replied “What you have described here is a constitutional crisis of first order.”
Absolutely Not!
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is flawed. I am very surprised the Remainers did not patch it with emergency legislation.
The FTPA gives Johnson 14 days to regain confidence. But it also allows another PM. It does specify the PM has to stand down if parliament approves an alternate.
Johnson could legally refuse to stand down for 14 days. Even if that was challenged, there is no longer much time to do so.
The earliest a motion of no confidence could happen is Tomorrow. The earliest the vote could be is Monday.
I am unsure if they could appoint a caretaker on the same day or not. Impossible to get this done if alternate approved on the 29th or 30th and on the 31 Johnson simply never stands down.
No time for emergency legislation and most likely no time for court action either.
Again, surprised they did not fix this.
If the opposition put a VONC it means that that the fix is in and an agreed PM will be put in place the next day. If no VONC it is anybodies’ guess.
There will not be a new PM the next day. Already explained. Johnson would not step down.
I get that the procedural law is crappy. There is a loophole.
However, it doesn’t change the fact that Johnson would sabotage the will of parliament for the sole purpose of a minority goal (no deal Brexit). This is against the principle of parliamentary democracy even if the minority goal is the best thing in the world. However, let’s assume that the VoNC is passed and yet he refuses to step down. Is there anything that keeps the VoNC majority from changing the Fixed Term Parliament Act?
No matter how we twist it, the majority of MPs can remove the PM any time they like. They are sovereign, they can do practically anything in the UK.
If, big if, a VONC succeeds and there is a PM in waiting then the liar is no longer PM and will leave office. What you are describing cannot happen.
EU says decision tomorrow.
I do not know if morning or evening.
Could be any time but certainly tomorrow. I would guess mid-morning if forced.
Will EU wait and see what Parliament does on Monday before deciding/announcing extension? All a bit chicken and egg. Labour want extension before (possibly) committing to election. EU want to see what Labour do before committing to an extension. In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking. Surely, Boris wouldn’t still walk or will he?
And I see at Reuters this afternoon that Nikola Sturgeon secretly asked Corbyn to support a GE. Boy, that woman has got her own view of how the world works I guess, her own agenda, I suppose she is also wanting it over with so that she can get to work breaking up the UK.
If she thinks that Brexit would make leave for Scotland more likely, I wonder why she doesn’t say ‘we must respect the referendum result’ and help us get out of the EU?
The only reason I can think of is that they know leaving will boost our economy, and then those Scottish Independents are going to look rather naked in the outgoing tide.
Yes, and in a Brexited UK the SNP is just another very minor party. Bigger and better respected than the DUP but still not much to talk about. I see the UK eventually breaking up over Brexit either way, as long as they stay in the EU the provinces will be happy with their socialist mentors on the EU council, if they leave they will break away. If the Brexit is so frustrated by the provinces that it can’t happen then England will terminate the union and leave without them. Two things I think are now certain, one is the provinces want EU membership no matter what and they have demonstrated that. They will dump the UK in order to be part of the EU. The other is England does not want to be part of the EU and will dump the provinces if they have to to make that happen. This is over time of course, but inevitable. I am old enough I may not see it happen, but inexorably that is where it is going.