That plans are underway does not imply no deal. That Parliament voted against no deal does not imply that it won’t happen.
A range of possibilities still exist although some are more likely than others.
Legalities
A Brexit Central “Civil Servant” notes a Fourth Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Would Require New Legal Authority.
If the Prime Minister insists on ramming her totally unacceptable Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament with another vote, then she will need to take the considerable political risk of going to Brussels to ask for a new European Council decision for this purpose, which will then require an amended Statutory Instrument to be passed in Parliament.
May’s Withdrawal Agreement is dead. It is time to chuck it in the shredder, change Prime Minister, and get out of the EU.
Here’s the full text of the European Council decision of 22nd March:
“Under the European Council decision, in the event that the withdrawal agreement is approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019 at the latest, the extension will be until 22 May 2019. In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019, the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council. The decision makes clear that for the duration of the extension the United Kingdom remains a member state with all the rights and obligations set out in the treaties and under EU law. If the UK is still a member state on 23-26 May 2019, it will be under the obligation to hold elections to the European Parliament. The extension also excludes any re-opening of the withdrawal agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the UK should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the withdrawal agreement.”
Legalities vs Practicalities
Legally, that’s very clear. It says Parliament has until March 29 to approve the withdrawal agreement. Parliament did not do that. What remains is an option to indicate a way forward before April 12.
“Civil Servant”, whose identity is protected, has this correct.
As a practical matter, throw the analysis in the ashcan. If May holds a 4th vote and it passes, the EU will honor it.
Thus, May’s deal is not dead.
MP’s Gave May Authority to Leave With No Deal
Here’s a similarly useless opinion: MPs have given Theresa May the authority to leave the EU on 12th April without a deal.
MPs have indeed voted against many things: the Withdrawal Agreement, leaving without a deal, a managed No Deal, a customs union, a confirmatory referendum and various versions of EFTA/EEA including so-called Common Market 2.0. Let’s focus, however, on the indicative vote on Motion L, tabled by Joanna Cherry of the SNP: “Revoke Article 50 to avoid No Deal”. This motion stated that if we were two days before the scheduled date of departure from the EU and with no Withdrawal Agreement in place, the Government should put a motion to the House asking it to approve No Deal and if that was not approved, then the Government would be forced to revoke Article 50. The motion was defeated overwhelmingly by 293 votes to 184. To understand the significance of this vote, recall that if the Withdrawal Agreement was not approved before Friday 29th March, the extension to Article 50 granted by the EU would last only until Friday 12th April. Now it has not been approved, the default remains that we leave the European Union without a deal. Given that MPs have indicated they are opposed to every other option, we are in precisely the situation envisaged by Motion L.
Now that the Withdrawal Agreement has been voted down three times, the only defensible strategy the Prime Minister has is to ensure the UK leaves the EU on 12th April.
Once again, this makes perfect sense logically. Once again, it is a waste of time to do anything but quickly dismiss it.
Way Forward
A Guardian editorial states MPs Offer a Way Out
This week MPs voted for the first time since 1906 to take back control of parliamentary business from the government and hold a series of indicative votes on where they thought Brexit should go.
There is now a straightforward choice: either change Brexit policy or change the parliament. The latter requires a general election, but the odds are against any party gaining a big majority. The predicament the nation finds itself in is in part a consequence of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. This does not allow for the dissolution of parliament when a prime minister has been defeated on the government’s legislation. The act says two-thirds of MPs have to approve a motion for an early election to be called.
Mrs May should pay attention to the outcome of next week’s votes. She is running out of time to come up with a plan that either parliament or her party and its allies can support. Mrs May needs to tell EU leaders at an emergency European council meeting on 10 April how the UK intends to proceed. The UK must also come up with proposals before 12 April to avert a ruinous no-deal Brexit, which MPs have voted against. Restoring the sovereignty of parliament was one of the major aims of Brexit. Mrs May could honour that by accepting what MPs vote for.
One Useful Fact Accompanied With Lies
The “way out” is a lie. The Guardian wants a customs union. That is not a way out, it is a way to remain in the EU with all the problems and none of the benefits.
The Guardian’s portrayal of no-deal as ruinous is another lie.
The useful fact is something I meant to discuss previously but did not do so.
May can call for elections, but she might not get them, and in fact probably wouldn’t. It takes two-thirds of MPs to go along and enough Tories wouldn’t.
Snap Elections Blocked
Please consider furious Tory MPs tell May: We’ll Block Snap Brexit Election.
Conservative MPs from across the party are threatening to vote down any attempt by Theresa May to lead them into a snap election, warning it would split the Tories and exacerbate the Brexit crisis.
In a sign of the collapse in authority suffered by the prime minister, cabinet ministers are among those warning that there will be a serious campaign by Conservative MPs to vote against an election headed by May, a move she hinted at last week to break the Brexit deadlock.
The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs.
Vote of Confidence
Even some pro-remain MPs don’t want snap elections. Also note the odd proposal that May could back a vote of confidence against herself to force an election.
Although it only takes 50% for May to be removed in a vote of confidence, that does not explicitly force elections either.
Wikipedia notes that under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, if a motion of no confidence in the government is passed in express terms, the house must then adopt a vote of confidence in that same or an alternate government within 14 days, or a general election is held.
There is a 14 day window to form a new government with uncertain outcomes. And although Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is itching for an election, he seems poised to lose it, at least according to recent polls.
Finally, it is unclear if France and the rest of the EU would wait for these political shenanigans. And even if the EU would wait, it would only be if the UK agrees by April 12 to hold EU parliament elections. That has not happened yet.
What’s Next
Key Question
That useful diagram is from the BBC.
The key question that “Avid Remainers” consistently miss is “Will Theresa May Accept the Plan?“
It is not clear how many proposals there will be but it is thought supporters of a “softer Brexit” than the PM’s deal will look to join forces and combine elements of separate proposals to try and broker a compromise.
However, any plan including a customs union will require more Conservative support than it has hitherto enjoyed and the government has explicitly ruled out the idea up to now.
A motion calling for any deal approved by Parliament to be endorsed by the public in a confirmatory referendum is expected to return in some form. 268 MPs voted for it last time although, again, the majority of Tories and many Labour MPs remain opposed.
Runoff
The BBC’s political correspondent Alex Forsyth said if a majority of MPs ended up backing either a customs union or referendum on Monday, senior government sources aren’t ruling out the idea of a run-off, giving MPs a straight choice between that and the PM’s Brexit plan.
The majority will not back a referendum. The referendum idea died many months ago if it was ever really in play in the first place.
The runnoff idea is yet another way May can force MV4.
My idea that May could head to Europe to discuss a customs union and purposely come back empty-handed is also in play.
Under that scenario, May would present Parliament with the choice of My Deal or No Deal on April 9 or 10.
Both cannot be ruled out making for MV5.
EU Prepares for No Deal
Meanwhile, the BBC reports EU Leaders Plan for No Deal as Other Options Dissolve.
EU leaders head into this weekend with a heavy heart. They know, in theory, that all Brexit options remain on the table and they haven’t entirely given up hope of a negotiated UK departure, but there is little trust here that the prime minister or Parliament will manage to pull it off.
Despite all the drama, the money and time spent by EU leaders on Brexit over the last two years (summits, dedicated governmental departments, no-deal planning), all the hard, hard graft put in by the EU and UK negotiating teams, Europe’s leaders are asking themselves what there is to show for it all.
Ongoing Brexit divisions in parliament, in government and in Theresa May’s cabinet were on screaming technicolour display again last week.
EU leaders used to use the threat of a no-deal Brexit as a negotiating tactic (as did the UK). They now believe it to be a very real prospect. That has led to a number of countries – notably France – questioning the logic of delaying Brexit for much longer.
Final Days
Without another extension, for reasons the EU will accept, we are down to the final 11 days.
Say what you want of May, but give her credit for brilliantly running don the clock. She succeeded although the outcome is unknown.
Negotiating Too Good a Deal
If no-deal is the result, don’t blame May entirely. She was a terrible negotiator, but this was a joint effort.
If anything, one can blame the EU more for insisting on provisions that the UK ultimately would not go along with.
No-deal is a fantastic opportunity for the UK. Yes, there will be some short-term pain, but the benefits will be lasting.
For further discussion, please see Forcing MV4: Binary Choice vs Conspiracy Theories and Accidents.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“This is a big win for Russia. “
Looks like you are attempting to peddle fear with no explanation of the reasoning behind that.The last Russian fear mongering over the US election turned out to be a dud, and this proposition appears to have no more evidence behind it than that.
“Britain will be a small, shrinking economy” – Again you assert with no reasoning. Logic tells me that shorn of the burden of having to support an unnecessary level of government, and with the single chain of command restored, the UK economy should do well. The caveat here is that if we have strict immigration controls, the reduction in the number of people will cause the economy to shrink. What is important though is the size of the economy in relation to the number of people. The UK will do great without having the burden of supporting the EU. WTO trade deals will suit us just fine.
“WTO trade deals will suit us just fine.”
Will do who fine?
All my friends who run businesses there (either owners/partners/senior execs) including my sister who runs sales nationwide for a large international company, think this is a classic example of shooting yourself in the foot.
Do you really think that one set of useless politicians are going to be any better than another?
Do you really think that having to adhere to market rules that you have decided to have no ability to change is going to be better than at least having a seat at the table?
Do you really think that other markets are going to replace the E.U. in importance to the U.K.?
Do you really think that choking the City of London’s future is a good decision on the part of Britain?
Sadly, you probably do.
“Do you really think that choking the City of London’s future is a good decision on the part of Britain?”
Yes. Choking banksters is always a good thing to do. Surpassed only by throwing them out of skyscraper windows, and hanging them from lampposts.
One set of useless politicians, is an improvement on two sets. Zero would be better yet; but 150 years of pervasive, publicly funded indoctrination seem to have rendered the dupes too duped for that one. But still, from two to one is at least a step in the right direction.
All those who ran plantations in Antebellum, either owners/partners/senior execs, didn’t particularly want much change from the status quo, either. Ditto those who run things in Tehran. And, no doubt, ditto Pyongyang. Neither was it the ones who ran things under Barre, who were fed up enough to finally grow up and show government the respect it is properly due. See a pattern there?
“Do you really think that one set of useless politicians are going to be any better than another?” – I would rather have one set of politicians rather than 2 governing us 100% of the time.
“Do you really think that having to adhere to market rules that you have decided to have no ability to change is going to be better than at least having a seat at the table?” – All rules can be influenced and changed. The advantage of a big trading set of rules like WTO, is that political changes favouring one nation are unlikely to get anywhere, whereas changes to improve trade will gain common support. I like that idea.
“Do you really think that other markets are going to replace the E.U. in importance to the U.K.?” – The EU isnt going to disappear as a market for the UK, we will just trade with it in a different way.
“Do you really think that choking the City of London’s future is a good decision on the part of Britain?” – I am all in favour of choking the City of London, it prospers at the expense of the rest of the UK economy. Sadly though, Brexit isnt likely to make even the slightest dent into the City of London business model.
Below is worth a read. Beware people saying “most Brits”.
Right or wrong there is deep anger brewing. Dominic Grieve is a stalwart of the Tories, if it can happen to him it can happen to anyone of them.
If Farage sets up his national party there will be Tory and Labour MPs quaking in their shoes as many Brits are tired of them all.
Not a pro-Brexit publication, nor extreme –
Grieve is like a #nevertrumper is a deep red pro-Trump constituency – of course his own party are going to judge him on one opinion on the subject that dominates every news cycle in the U.K.
I expect we will see the same thing here from Republicans who are not deemed Trumpian enough, or sufficiently anti-Trumpian depending on the party and place.
All this shows is that there are issues/people (Brexit/Trump) that can generate emotions.
Most Brits don’t want Brexit to be a disaster, and the consensus is that the most disastrous way to leave the E.U. is “No Deal” Brexit.
Grieve, as The Independent (a paper I frequently read when I lived in the U.K.) stated, should hardly be surprised at his defenestration. Why this is held up as a first step to “blood in the streets” is a mystery, but the over-excited are always going to be looking for sensationalist outcomes.
Because he’s pro-Remain and there is a game plan to remove others either internally or via election. He’s as pro-EU as anyone can be no matter what political party.
They are looking to behead the top Tory pro-EU man. Others will follow. Labour will be targeted at the polls in elections.
The people planning it have more idea of how to achieve a result than any of the MPs do. Open season to remove these people. Anyone wanting to keep their seat had better start to listen or convince the electorate. They have been doing NEITHER but have an air of entitlement. You have to vote for them and they can do as they please when in power and the electorate have to follow.
Let’s see how that changes as grass roots democracy is re-invigorated.
“Open season to remove these people”
Now THAT, would be a change we could believe in! Remove, once and for all, by absolutely any means necessary!
So when does a BREXIT politician file a lawsuit to enforce Article 50 leaving on March 29th? It would seem asking for or accepting an extension would violate rule of law.
Referendum is non-binding and Brexit is a political decision.
“No-deal is a fantastic opportunity for the UK. Yes, there will be some short-term pain, but the benefits will be lasting.”
This is a big win for Russia. This is a big win for anti-government types and Libertarians, but the consensus of those who have a clue and have skin in the game is that “No Deal” Brexit will be extremely problematic to most Brits.
Britain will be a small, shrinking economy in desperate need to craft bilateral agreements with larger trading partners, all of whom will know that Britain is desperate and unskilled in the process (for over four decades Britain has not had to negotiate any complex economic agreements – and the Brexit deal, even though you seem to lay the blame on only Theresa May, is really indicative of a systemic weakness in this skill set).
Take for example a proposed deal with the U.S. The U.K. will be forced to give up its sovereignty over food processing rules to allow for practices that are accepted in the U.S. but not popular in the U.K. Just about every other negotiation will be along the lines of “Here is the deal, we don’t really need it, but we know you do, so take it or leave it.”
There is great and gleeful hand waiving about how Germany is going to suffer because Britain won’t buy their Mercedes any longer – but does anybody really believe that Germany will be allowed by the rest of Europe to cut a sweetheart deal with the U.K. to prop up their auto industry, even if they believe all that “Battle of Britain 2” stuff?
Another aspect is Northern Ireland. The “Troubles” are not taken seriously over here, and of course, the U.S. was a major fundraiser and supporter of the I.R.A. – an organization that killed plenty of innocent people, including children, with indiscriminate acts of violence. I’ve got family on both sides of the border and Christian sects and have no interest in the sectarian war (let’s call it what it is) flaring up again. I hope the people of Ireland and Ulster feel the same way, however it is still two divided communities in many ways, and the ties that have been built are still fragile enough to be swept aside by the stupid.
“No Deal” Brexit may be inevitable, but the booster groups endorsing it feels like a cheerleader group at a funeral to most Brits.
“most Brits”? A sweeping statement.
Ructions will not settle quickly.
Dominic Grieve is first to face a backlsdh and others, both Conservative & Labour, will follow.
There will be no peace for years and if GFarage gets his funding for a national party this is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
The link to the poll I wanted to cite showing that most Brits didn’t want “No Deal” seems to be triggering the nanny filter. Only 28% of Brits want a “No Deal” Brexit.
Of those they asked – 28%.
The deep state in the UK is in overdrive, along with their minions in the MSM.j
Be it remain in the UK or go on jolly senseless wars, when the UK deep state want something to happen it happens. They nudge, cajole, use friends in BBC, MSM to achieve a result. Brainwash and steam roll.
They made a mistake by offering a referendum and did their best to get the answer they wanted. Since the answer was wrong they’ll ignore it one way or another and convince the plebs they don’t really want what they voted for.
There are videos where main Gov players started voting Leave would mean coming out of customers.union etc. May said the UK would leave on 29th March. It’s all lies. The UK will be in the EU by the backdoor and the plebs will be ignored and told they don’t want No Deal, they want something else instead.
If people want out of the EU a new political party, well funded, is needed. Profound, fundamental and painfull change. A peaceful revolution. Unfortunately revolutions are rarely peaceful.
This is just towards the end of the beginning.
“Only 28% of Brits want a “No Deal” Brexit.”
No sh…. Sherlock, when the alternative option is some notion of a “deal” which will give all Britons everything they could possibly dream of for all future.
Given an actual choice between in or out of the EU, most Brits picked out. Getting out is the important part. The rest is just minutia.
This is an interesting point. The pro-leave campaign ran with a lot of stories about how plucky Britain would be better without spending all that money on the E.U. – 350,000/week if my memory serves me – a promise they ran from even faster the Trump did from “Mexico’s Going To Pay For The Wall” nonsense.
I put the ownership to come up with a plan that more than 28% of the British public agrees with square on the shoulders of the loudmouths who promised Nirvana and now are loudly whining they aren’t getting what they want.
Frankly, all I see are the same people who whined about the E.U. now being the loudest whiners about the disastrous outcome to date (which was f’n obvious). All they have really proven is that there is a cadre that like whining more than actually coming up with positive solutions that a majority will agree with.
Yes, “most Brits” – I just spent two weeks there and the only voices for “No Deal” Brexit were the complete wankers who didn’t care.
Two weeks. Wow.
I live in the heartlands and I’ve never known such anger since the Falklands war. I wouldn’t want to be a politician in favour of the EU, recognisable, and walking the streets much north of London.
This is just the start.
I’m guessing you spent your time in London—things are very different outside of that city
I was in London and elsewhere – far from London.
“Only complete wankers support No Deal Brexit”????? Hey, watch what you say. Perhaps the subtleties of the 1001 Brexit variations are being lost to short-term visitors.
Offered a choice between No Brexit, No Deal Brexit, Fair Brexit, and May’s Brexit, the vote would split between Fair Brexit (a majority) and No Brexit. (If you visited London, you should be aware that we native Londoners are already a minority in London. Like Trump, most support lives in the unreported hinterland.)
The problem is that the choice actually being offered is No Brexit, May’s Brexit, and No Deal Brexit. They’re all horrible options. No wonder none of them can win an indicative vote. One day we may discover whether this dog’s dinner menu is EU conniving or/and May’s incompetence. Right now, it hardly matters.
“Only complete wankers support No Deal Brexit”????? Hey, watch what you say.
Yeah, sorry about that one.
“I just spent two weeks there and the only voices for “No Deal” Brexit were the complete wankers who didn’t care.”
London isn’t England anymore. I was there for the Brexit vote. My cousin in Wembley voted ‘leave’, but he’s one of very few in his neighborhood. All the shopkeepers in London have accents – but not English ones.
BMW are considering buying the Honda plant. Honda is not closing due to Brexit, it’s down to cost of total investment in EVs. Honda Turkey also closing as they pull their horns in.
Meanwhile little old Singapore has more FTAs than the UK, including one to be signed off with the EU. A very small population and not so hot consumption vs UK.
Some people are deliberately more negative than needed.
As for NI & Scotland, it may be time for independence and for them to take their share of the national debt with them and go to the Euro.
The future will look little like the past unless you look pre-1604.
Meanwhile the UK (whilst it still exists) should pull back on defence engagements except where there is direct UK risk in doing so. Possibly nvolving revoking the German defence treaty especially as they are likely to take an anti-British EU stance.
Both the Conservatives and Labour are a disgrace and a more pro-Britain party is needed to shake up the cosy status quo.
“This is a big win for Russia.”
Nonsense. It matters little to Russia whether Britain is in the EU. Either way, Nordstream is coming and that’s good.
And if it’s a ‘win’ for Russia, so what? Russia has been ‘winning’ through diplomacy while the West tries to force its way on everyone via war and economic sanctions. Putin is a great diplomat having worked with Turkey – a NATO member that shot down a Russian plane in 2015 – to bring peace to Syria, which the West nearly destroyed by regime-change using armed, head-chopping jihadists.
Really? Russia, the country that actively sends assassins to other countries, annexed Crimea, even cheats at the Olympics, is your dream land?
Unproven and likely false accusations by Western governments pale in comparison with millions, including children, killed or maimed, as a direct, or indirect, result of wars from Afghanistan to Libya.100s still dying every month in Iraq. All for NOTHING.
Can the Russian bots please leave the conversation 😉
“Can the Russian bots please leave the conversation ;)”
I was born in Atlanta to an America father and English mother. I grew up in the DC area, attended the University of Maryland, graduating with a degree in Computer Science. I wrote SATCOM software for the HST project at GSFC, for Intelsat in Washington, for the Iridium project in Chandler, Arizona and a major ‘defense’ contractor for 10 years. I’ve spent two years of my life in England on 12 trips but have never been east of Dunkirk. I’ve been following Mish since 2007.
So fuck off, shitbrain.
Better programming these days. They even give the bots a backstory. The bot doth protest too much, methinks.
“methinks”
No, you do not think because you’re a Soros bot.
“Russia, the country that actively sends assassins to other countries, annexed Crimea, even cheats at the Olympics,…”
Land of scary hobgoblins, no doubt… One of many. Like Eastasia. Which “we” must give up all and everything to be “protected” from, by the great taxfeeders and ambulance chasers whom we should feel blessed to be robbed and harassed by, in what we are told to mindlessly regurgitate is our “enlightened” age…..
Neither the Conservative MPs nor some of the Labour MPs want brexit at all. This is not about the will of the people as they have been ignored for decades. This is about the status quo which is what unfortunately will happen in the short and long run.