BRICS+ is set to expand. Let’s discuss the hype regarding an alleged reshuffling the world order. 
Push to Reshuffle World Order
Reuters reports BRICS Welcomes New Members in Push to Reshuffle World Order
The BRICS bloc of developing nations agreed on Thursday to admit Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates in a move aimed at accelerating its push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.
The group’s leaders left the door open to future enlargement, potentially paving the way for the admission of dozens more countries motivated by a desire to level a global playing field they consider rigged against them.
The entry of oil powers Saudi Arabia and UAE highlights their drift away from the United States’ orbit and ambition to become global heavyweights in their own right.
Petrodollar Silliness
The entry of Saudi Arabia and UAE is not a result of those countries drifting away from the US on their own accord. Rather, the US became largely energy independent and has needed the Mideast less and less.
The vanishing dependence of the US on the Mideast is largely a US success story.
In contrast, China is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia and Russia for energy. Yet, the petrodollar theory advocates portray US energy independence as a US weakness. That’s the first hoot from today’s BRIC reporting.
BRICS+ Is Forecast to Dominate the World’s GDP
The lead chart is from the Bloomberg article BRICS Bloc Grows Heft With Saudi Arabia and Other Mideast Powers
The chart appears to be an extension of IMF silliness comparing the US and China on a fatally flawed Purchasing Power Parity PPP basis.
The article makes a few points worth discussing but is also riddled with serious flaws.
The push for expansion was largely driven by China but had the backing of Russia and South Africa. India was concerned a bigger BRICS would transform the group into a mouthpiece for China, while Brazil was worried about alienating the West.
“In a sense the Saudis, the Emiratis in particular, and the Egyptians to some extent have ambitions for global governance and see membership as a way of exercising leadership and achieving their global ambition,” said Hasan Alhasan, Research Fellow for Middle East Policy at the Bahrain-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. That doesn’t mean they are abandoning their strategic security partnership with the US, but they are “building coalitions on an issue-by-issue basis depending on where their national interests are,” he said.
Both of those ideas are accurate assessments. It makes sense to build coalitions based on natural interests. But how easy is that?
EU Comparison
The EU is a perfect example of why bigger isn’t better and goals are easier said than done. The EU is so unwieldly there is infighting over everything and it takes unanimous consent to do anything.
Since inception, the EU has bickered over agricultural policy, with France having veto power over making any trade agreements.
Global trade forums fail every year over agricultural policy alone. Unfortunately, that will never change.
Currently, there is tremendous energy bickering between EU nations. France and Germany are oceans apart in how they view Ukraine, NATO, military spending, and trade with Russia. Poland and the Eastern bloc nations have an even wider gap with Germany.
Returning to the BRICS, India is concerned a bigger BRICS would transform the group into a mouthpiece for China and Brazil is worried about alienating the West.
BRICS+++++
Factor in “building coalitions on an issue-by-issue basis” while being part of a large group that has nothing in common with each other than to avoid using dollars, please explain how it works.
Show me a functional currency that ties all of those ideas together.
Hells bells, the Eurozone nations have far more in common than this ragtag BRIC collection. Nonetheless, they keep adding nations to brag about how big the BRIC block is.
This is hoot of the day #2.
Economic Writers Don’t Understand Trade
Let’s return to the Bloomberg article for some serious reporting flaws, widely believed.
“The enlargement of the BRICS is driven by the desire to build an alternative to an international system centered on US hegemony,” said Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. [True]
“A distinction should be drawn between the use of the US dollar as a trading currency, which may erode as many seek an alternative, and as a reserve currency, which almost no other country or group of countries have the size, institutional credibility, and freely convertible characteristics, to rival.” [Say what?!]
Fatal Economic Flaws
The first paragraph is true. But it’s also easier said than done as noted by my comments on the EU and BRICS+++++.
The second paragraph is fatally flawed.
Hasnain Malik proposes a distinction between reserve currencies and trading currencies. How does that work?
Trade is Not Between Nations
It’s important to understand that trade is between individuals, not between nations.
Aggregate reporting of trade deficits such as the persistent US deficit with China, makes it appear otherwise. But the deficit is really a result of a sum of individual transactions.
For example, you or I go to a store and buy a tool at Home Depot. More likely than not, it’s made in China. A Toyota may be assembled in the US or Mexico with parts from Japan, China, or Mexico.
Taking a step back, the intermediate buyer, say Home Depot, makes big orders with various Chinese manufacturers.
The same applies to a Brazilian Store Owner (BSO) dealing with China.
Let’s call the proposed trading currency a BRICK. To place its order with China, in light of the fact of the alleged distinction between a Reserve Currency and a Trading Currency, the BSO would need to convert Brazilian currency to BRICKs place an order with a Chinese Manufacture willing to accept BRICKs, then the Bank of China would swap Yuan for the BRICKs and then do what with the BRICKs?
What precisely does the Bank of China do with all the BRICKs it is accumulating given that BRICKs are a trading currency, not a reserve currency?
Are there any BRICK bonds? No, because the BRICK is only a trading currency.
Aramco Example
Consider Saudi Arabia’s oil producer Aramco. It sells oil to China. What the hell does Aramco do with the BRICKs it allegedly will take?
Will it even take BRICKs? If so why?
Remember, the BRICK is a trading currency, not a reserve currency.
The hype of a trading currency that cannot possibly work as designed is hoot of the day #3.
Questions on the Value of a BRICK
- What’s the value of a BRICK?
- Who sets it?
- How?
- Is a BRICK backed by anything?
- Is there a BRICK bond market?
OK, there is falling trust in the dollar, but how does that translate into rising trust in BRICKs.
Once again, careful analysis shows BRICS+++++ and the corresponding BRICK trading currency is still nothing more than meaningless hype.
BRICS+++++ GDP Forecast
Returning to the lead chart, the notion the notion that the GDP of the G7 will fall to 20 percent by 2040 is Purchasing Power Parity nonsense.
Demographics in China have turned hugely negative. Coupled with a massive debt bubble that resulted from China trying to achieve ridiculous GDP targets, China is following closely in the deflationary footsteps of Japan.
China has not passed the US in GDP and will not do so any time soon
For a thorough trouncing of the PPP idea, please see Purchasing Power Parity Silliness and the Myth China Passed the US in GDP
Russia is ALREADY Collapsing.
China will begin to Collapse. (They will pick CC Party / Dictatorship over their Economy.)
India will struggle with lack of Water and very interruptible resources (Food, Energy, Military Systems) can they FEED / Water their people and protect against China, Pakistan, etc..
Brazil will have problems like most S. American Countries.
South Africa is already in trouble.
The OIL states in the Gulf KNOW they need to get into many other businesses and out of nearly 90% reliance on OIL and Gas.
Most of the Middle East is Conflict over Religion almost continuously. It will be problematic forever as long as that remains true.
Nobody else is remotely close.
Wrong, China is already collapsing, Russia’s moment came and went. Russia has the resources to conduct metaphorical trench warfare. India has a growing and valuable tech sector that can innovate new income to resolve its infrastructure problems. You fail to identify any specific problems in Brazil. SAfrica, yes is corrupt and broke, but so is Pakistan, who you imagine to be a threat to India! Most of the Middle East is more stable now than it has been for a long time, you even have meet-ups with Israel!
The US moment as an independent republic peaked about 1860.
BRICS is more of a political bloc than an economic bloc. They’re letting countries know that it’s OK to not be a slave to the US. If the US applies sanctions, you can still trade with us. As they grow, so does the incentive for other countries to join.
People in the US think foreign countries love us because we protect democracies. Nothing could be further from the truth. They pretend to like us out of fear.
Yeah, except at ANY point the US can stop “Protecting” those Sea Zones…and all hell breaks loose.
BRICS is a bunch of companies that are either collapsing (Russia, S. Africa) Heading Towards Collapse (China – Demographic AND Investing / Economic issues) or in danger of being cut off (India – Water, Food, Energy, Military Weapons Systems, Manufacturing Resources)
India and China will almost certainly go to War over Water / Food / their Border. Both NEED it for their massive populations.
Russia already went to War and the RF will break apart, just like the USSR did 30 years ago.
Russia is (self-evidently) far more resilient than people imagine.
China, on the other hand, is not, and a lot of this BRICS posturing and propaganda, is about Emporer Xi trying to find some new clothes to hide his destruction of the CCP economy, which has been built on internal bubble construction, and external loanshark diplomacy construction since around 2014. China’s implosion is the thing we are witnessing, and the broke EU is more likely to break up than the RF.
Interestingly, 20 + yrs ago, there was a prediction from a Russian Academic forecasting the breakup of America’s States.
This is all good analysis, thoughtful.
However, it all implies the economics (as a whole) political alliances, and global military power structure remain constant. Guess what? All this negative rhetoric against BRICS++++ assumes there is no Great Power War/Conflict. There is plenty of think-tank and other analysis out there. I suggest you familiarize yourselves. Sure, state on state war is rare, even amongst nuclear powers, but it has happened. This latest move should be considered as building an economic, political, and defense alliance.
I’m not saying anyone is wrong; please considering more than the “E” in PMESII, esp when investing or maintaining a perception that “this can’t or won’t happen” with Hoots of the Day. . .
All wars are fundamentally economic and cultural… America’s defeats, as well as its victories, are due to failure or success of exporting its culture and having it adopted.
For China, and it’s rag-tag band of pariah states to “win” the current conflict, they have to win the hearts and minds of their enemies, and they seem unlikely to do that, given that they are not only suppressing free speech, and financial liberty, but now seeking to go beyond facial recognition and medical QR codes to DNA logging all of their citizens.
This seems unlikely to win over new recruits to “Team CCP”, the best they can do is corrode western culture via social manipulation software, like TikTok. I doubt the CCP can win, nor it’s violent and corrupt fellow travellers, like Iran and SAfrica. Even within the BRICS band, India is vying to supplant China as Asia’s great power.
I hope you are correct.
“…facial recognition and medical QR codes to DNA logging all of their citizens.”
Once again China is just a tiny bit ahead of the US.
Yes, but – any determined ” bad actor” can light a deadly fuse.
Keeping on chanting USA, USA, USA, as your country swirls down the drain. What does America produce?
Sick ideologies,
Poorly educated citizens,
Dangerous, crappy cities,
Costly, ineffective military equipment,
Obese people with health issues,
Increasingly corrupt politicians,
Financial shenanigans
100k/year fentanyl deaths
Note the US oil increase is temporary since shale oil wells don’t have long lifetimes. Oil prices are going higher.
In case you haven’t noticed, the American middle class is being hollowed out.
Do you think these ” Woke” manifestations are singularly American, and, or, the product of embracing multiculturalism, in a misguided attempt to “Right” injustices of the past ?
If you think that of these countries or bozos trust each other you are deluded.
Absent a modicum of trust there can be no functioning trade system. For example oil who sets that price? Them or market forces good or ill? Same for any other item. There is no common cross market thingy for exchange. They are a bunch of country wastrals seeking a reason for existence which comes down to anti euro dollar desires and wishes.
To me the hoot of the day is the idea that adding Argentina into your bloc for a new currency, given its glorious history of hyperinflation and debt defaults, is totally absurd
The inflation expertise of the Argentinians should be valued as a scarce resource. They have survived multiple rounds.
Do you think the announced intention, by their new President, to adopt the Dollar $$ as Argentina’s currency will happen?
“What Does That Mean?”
Game Over for the West, obviously. Duh!
Only if they can supplant all the standards and regulations that give an economic system credibility, reliability etc… remember that prices are information, and if economies, such as the CCP’s empire, routinely manipulate prices, then the information they deliver is corrupted and useless. If CCP controlled banks can just seize private funds (Like Canadian ones seem to do), then you destroy reliability and trust, and the system becomes fundamentally unusable. Civilisation needs rules.
Unfortunately for everyone the US quite often does not even follow it’s own rules let alone international rules.
Sniff, sniff, smells like reality denial here Mish.
The fact is these countries want to diversify away from the US $ for a host of very good reasons, almost none of which you cited. They don’t care if it costs them more, is less evvicient, more difficult, whatever, that won’t be stopping them, as that is not the primary motivator. What is the prime motivatore: the desire to not be under the hegemony of the US any more, as a result of the epic abuse of it’s status by the US and the West. 500 years of colonial imperialism are coming to a rapid end, and fully deserved.
“The article makes a few points worth discussing but is also riddled with serious flaws. ”
THat’s how I would describe this piece.
The fact is, the USA and the collective West are hated around the world, for very good reasons, and hate is a very strong motive to take action. And I am sure they couldn’t care less what you think about it.
These countries are primarily primary resource exporters, low tech plagiarisers, they are not centres of education, innovation, and high tech or global services. Economies cannot comprise physical stuff alone, they have to be more multi-faceted than that.
They are fed up with the US and do not wish to be a potential target.
I have a question for you MISH. What will be the interest rates on 10yr next year?
Too much hype.
The goal of BRICS is simple: It is a conference of countries that seek to encourage more democratic relations among the countries of the world instead of dictatorial relationships they feel the post-ww2 US led global order has imposed.
It is not a block, nor an alliance, nor anything but a forum with an agenda.
Unbelievable. Did anyone here bother to look up what the top exports are for these “BRICS?” Looks to me that these countries will be trading oil, gems and cereal amongst themselves. I really don’t see anything on the list that would impact the US. For that matter, as the world weans itself off oil, these countries will be left with little to nothing to trade.
Let me clue you guys in….
Brazil
1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$56.9 billion (17% of total exports)
2. Oil seeds: $47.2 billion (14.1%)
3. Ores, slag, ash: $32.4 billion (9.7%)
4. Meat: $24 billion (7.2%)
5. Iron, steel: $16.7 billion (5%)
6. Cereals: $13.9 billion (4.2%)
7. Machinery including computers: $12.44 billion (3.7%)
8. Vehicles: $12.39 billion (3.7%)
9. Sugar, sugar confectionery: $11.24 billion (3.4%)
10. Food industry waste, animal fodder: $11.15 billion (3.3%
Russia
1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$348.3 billion (69.5% of total exports)
2. Iron, steel: $21.5 billion (4.3%)
3. Fertilizers: $17.4 billion (3.5%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $16.9 billion (3.4%)
5. Aluminum: $10 billion (2%)
6. Wood: $8.6 billion (1.7%)
7. Fish: $7.8 billion (1.6%)
8. Cereals: $7.24 billion (1.4%)
9. Copper: $7.16 billion (1.4%)
10. Inorganic chemicals: $5.8 billion (1.2%)
India
1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$42.6 billion (11.8% of total exports)
2. Gems, precious metals: $39.7 billion (11%)
3. Organic chemicals: $25.1 billion (7%)
4. Machinery including computers: $24.6 billion (6.8%)
5. Electrical machinery, equipment: $22.9 billion (6.4%)
6. Pharmaceuticals: $20.7 billion (5.8%)
7. Vehicles: $17.1 billion (4.8%)
8. Iron, steel: $13.8 billion (3.8%)
9. Aluminum: $10.2 billion (2.8%)
10. Articles of iron or steel: $9 billion (2.5%)
China
1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$954.8 billion (26.6% of total exports)
2. Machinery including computers: $552 billion (15.4%)
3. Vehicles: $150.2 billion (4.2%)
4. Plastics, plastic articles: $143.5 billion (4%)
5. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefabricated buildings: $130.9 billion (3.6%)
6. Articles of iron or steel: $110.3 billion (3.1%)
7. Toys, games: $103.3 billion (2.9%)
8. Organic chemicals: $101.9 billion (2.8%)
9. Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $90.9 billion (2.5%)
10. Iron, steel: $77.3 billion (2.2%)
BRICS has a decade to go before it’s a serious option. They have been running their mouth for 15 years and still can’t get anything to take flight. They are gaining momentum however. Once it does take flight though that’s the end for the west. Pieces of paper for raw goods is not going to work anymore.
“As the world weans itself off oil”
And replaces it with what exactly?
Reality is that we will always be dependent on oil, unless we want to go back to living in the trees and hitting each other over the head with sticks. And BRICS has the oil.
What about the things not in your list?
For example Russia supplies over 60% of Egypts arms.
And where on your list is the export of Russian equipment? Like the nuclear power station that they are building in Egypt. Can’t see any figure for engineering exports by Russia on your list. Ditto Chinese construction services overseas which involves a few hundred billion in construction this past decade in dozens of African countries including a3 billion dollar site within walking distance of my apartment
Are you kidding. Nearly everything you buy is made overseas and much by China.
” really don’t see anything on the list that would impact the US.”
Some commodities are highly strategic and valuable, and will never appear in the volumes of others, but that doesn’t make them any less significant or impactful; consider Rare Earths, Uranium, and even Gold itself… never mind anything else, like food and fertiliser, that is a bigger deal for African countries, some of whom, like Niger, also produce Uranium… there are secondary/indirect impacts you are not considering.
From the outlands it appears that the confiscation of Russia’s dollar reserves at the NY Fed by the Biden, caused all this fuss with finding a new reserve, trading currency. It seemed a mistake at the time but I will reserve judgement until I see this new reserve, trading currency, metal, Church lands, etc. that they come up with.
Graphs such as those leading Mish’s post here remind me of the graphs Hans Rosling made famous.
Yeah, as the world gets richer (which you can verify by simply driving around in Google Street View), the G7 cut of total world whatnot will get smaller. And, that’s a bad thing?!? Jeez. Your neighbor just won the lottery. The horror!
In spite of inept US economic policy … I don’t see a solid block of countries that will stay together and do it right. While clearly, there are fiscally sound countries in the proposed groups, there are plenty who make Biden look like an economic genius (and that’s not easy). At this point, I’m not afraid of the Bric Bad Wolf
While you are clearly right, Mr. Shedlock, that there’s nothing accurate in that second paragraph of Bloomberg’s, I don’t think your criticism is *wholly* accurate either. Here’s my take, likely also featuring some plot holes…
What you are stating can’t take place with BRICKS is precisely what takes place today and has been happening since some time in the 1950s (so ca. 70 years), and is backed by all forms of foreign collateral, both sovereign and commercial. US collateral reigns supreme in this collateral hierarchy and thus becomes prominent when trust falls and liquidity dries up. I’m guessing that this “feature” is what has those nations’ noses out of joint. Even though this liquidity shortfall is not controlled by The Fed or even the US government—global liquidity is completely private in nature. That fact also might not make Xi too happy though. Command economies and private banking don’t work well together, and it’s the economy that tends to get punished, being downstream from money and credit.
Now, the fact the global financial system has been breaking for the past 15 years shouldn’t dissuade us from the possibility that a BRICK could theoretically exist. It can, but replacing a system that grew not only organically, but also opaquely, to become perhaps the most complex network on the planet (and I’m including the internet), is an monumental, if not impossible task.
And then, as you raise with the depth of markets issue (etc), how would this parallel system deal with the trust issue? That which is plaguing the existing system. The BRICK system can naturally create all the synthetic products it needs as needed, as the existing system did from 1960-2005, but why would it if a) there’s no actual need because of the existing system, and b) there’s no proof of concept demonstrating that the BRICK system is in any way better?
Since the Central Banks, which are cut off from the global system and thus no longer actual central banks, continue to perpetuate the myth they are relevant, I’m surprised the BRICS didn’t propose a new central bank for the global system.
Of course, then, there would be a race for control of that central bank, and it would become immediately politicized despite not technically being part of any nation and off-shore (see WEF and CBDC). Trust would again evaporate and the existing system would die in a heartbeat. So despite my surprise, I at least give them credit for not going down that path (despite the fact it would relieve us of unnecessary institutions). They have instead chosen the path of Keynes’s Bancor.
I propose negotiating with the global community in an effort to bring some transparency to the private global capital flow system. Double blockchain all paper of all duration… one for ownership and one for collateral assignations, so all the intermediaries can trust the situation directly in front of them. I also propose that the clearinghouses and other key nodes in the networks begin reporting transaction volumes and repo fails, and other such relevant data, on a daily basis.
Does the system need a “central bank” to provide monetary elasticity in times of trouble? Well, one problem is our existing CBs can’t see trouble when it’s right in front of them. They have no understanding of the interest rate fallacy or even their own domestic bond markets. Do we trust the global economy to these people when the private opaque system has a far better track record of success despite it’s present systemic instability? I think I’d start with transparency and see if that cures ills and go from there. Being threatened with a central bank would likely sharpen the minds of the global players enough that they can devise a better alternative.
One way or another though, change of some sort is coming. I’d much rather see that change initiated by the private system and not our incompetent bureaucracies.
Best regards, Sir. I think of Pater every time I come to this site and miss him greatly, despite never having the pleasure of meeting him. May he RIP.
Couple of big things my wall of text missed. It is somewhat incorrect to say that trade is intermediated by USD. It is intermediated by Eurodollars denominated in USD.
Also, with regards to greater transparency, national regulators should require all banks to report their global balance sheet. Congress and The Fed had two opportunities to do so: the Drysdale Affair (which is the present instability writ small) and the GFC. Both times the FEd told Congress there was nothing systemically important about the repo market other than central banks providing liquidity to the banking system. Of course, if Congress had looked deeper, it would have been all over for The Fed. Would’ve been obvious they were irrelevant and powerless other than their “vaunted” expectations theory.
Then there is the technological risk to a DEFI blockchain system security quantum computing will introduce.
“It is somewhat incorrect to say that trade is intermediated by USD.”
It is indeed incorrect. Most world trade is NOT intermediated in USD.
Big!
TL;DR
My main point is that Mish needs to stop acting like BRICS+ is silliness. Combined, all those countries have a pretty good chance of accelerating trade away from the dollar. And that’s bad, right? And all of this will happen against a backdrop of the US National Debt / Interest expense EXPLODING in the coming years. According to the Fed, Q2 shows an annualized interest expense of $970B. This means that Q3, when reported, will easily blow past $1T. Again, that’s bad and getting worse. With that said, I know that China and all sorts of other countries who are BRICS+ members have massive debt as well.
Most international trade is not done in Dollars or Euros, but in Eurodollars and Euroeuros etc… they are time-limited credit notes that are merely denominated in Dollars, Euros etc… and are totally outside the control of the respective central banks.
The dollar is likely to get stronger given the continuation of QT. The FED needs to lower the award rate on O/N RRPs and hold the money stock constant for another 8 months.
The FED is incompetent…
As has clearly been shown in the last several self-inflicted Crisis. Do you REALLY think they will do the RIGHT thing at the RIGHT time?? Nope. They’re going to over-tighten…cause some kind of crash…and then over-loosen…AGAIN.
How does China’s currency fix work? The PBOC sets the rate of exchange vis-a-vis dollar. A Chinese exporter receives payment in dollars, and exchanges it for yuan with the PBOC. The dollar is not legal tender in China.
Now apply the same for BRIC, only the mechanism will likely be floating.
Neither the dollar, nor the BRIC needs to be backed by anything as the former shows.
BTW, the name BRIC is as lame as it gets. If you have to rely on somebody else’s bs, you’re in trouble.
Chinese currency isn’t real, it’s a manipulated contrivance of the CCP, it’s about as credible as the latest clone of Buttcoin.
If the BRICS+ means stop giving billions of dollars to Argentina, Egipt or Ethiopya in financial and military aid, I think is the best idea in foreign policy of the century (for the US)
Argetina defaults in China loans every 20 years will be funny and entertaining. And Chiia giving billions in arms to Egipt while fanatics burn the China flag after friday prayers will be funnier.
Argentina’s track record is there for all to see and the Chinese are pretty careful with their investments. Or do you subscribe to the general American belief that the Chinese (and Russians) are generally much stupider than others? That attitude has already gotten you into serious trouble in Ukraine.
The Russians are dying off at a massive rate…and will continue to do so over the rest of the decade. Their Demographic Time Bomb is just being accelerated by having unnecessary Wars they can’t actually “Win”. Too many young men (and middle aged) fighting, dying and NOT reproducing in Russia…the ones that aren’t are having issues with Alcoholism and unemployment / underemployment.
There’s a reason their spaceship crashed on the Moon…and the Indians were successful. One is on the way up…the Russians…on the way down.
China will take back the part of their land in the East. The Central Asian countries will migrate to relationships with China and the Middle East instead of Russia. The Europeans have already moved away from Russia. By the time the Russian Federation collapses, there will be agreements in place with those Regions / Countries. Russia is less than half the population of the old Soviet Union. It will collapse again in the next decade or so. Faster if they keep up the War in Ukraine.
They should have learned from the Debacle in Afghanistan that collapsed the USSR.
Your breathless scrying over what you might hope will happen in Russia, extrapolated from current (not future unknown) data seems to belie your obliviousness to China’s demographic crisis that will likely stymie your prognostications on territorial expansion by the CCP.
You have no idea about Egypt. Their biggest trading partner is China, their biggest arms and grains supplier is Russia. I have not seen any Chinese arms in the Egyptian arsenal and my apartment is not far from their military command centre which dwarfs the Pentagon in size. They are rapidly increasing trade with other BRICS nations. The US influence is declining in Egypt and much of the world.
Perspective over Perceptions….on point.
Russia can’t even supply its OWN troops…What exactly do you think they are going to be able to ship to Egypt in the next decade if this foolish War keeps going?? Tanks?? Nope. Helicopters?? Nope. Artillery Pieces?? Nope. Artillery Shells?? Nope. Armored Vehilces?? Nope. They’re all lying in smoldering wrecks on the battlefield…or will be as the War goes on. Russia turned from the Second Largest Exporter of Military Weapons Systems to the largest self destruction of military equipment seen since WW2.
USSR Collapse 2.0…Now coming to a Russian Federation near you.
America is running out of money for it’s war in Russia, and EU support of Yugoslav-style ethnic cleansing in the current version of the Ukraine (“the borderlands”) borders, which have changed ever since this region was contrived in the 1920s, and several times before the current made-up country of “Ukraine” was invented in the 1990s, along with territories of Romania, Poland, and Russia, and Ukrainian dictator Khrushchev’s landgrab of Crimea.
The ruble and yuan are crashing. South Africans are facing starvation. You want to place a bet on India and Brazil go ahead. The Euro seemed like a good idea but nobody counted on the likes of Merkel, Macron, Scholz, Von der Leyen, Sunak. Biden is no better but he was installed by coup not elected.
Clearly you don’t know what a coup is…
The Euro NEVER seemed like a good idea…it’s simply proving that out as we speak.
Too many disparate economies and disparate cultures and disparate languages and disparate resource bases.
I would bet on India before Brazil…but no-one other than those two in the BRICS…or BRICS+++ is likely to make it through the next two decades as a completely stable country without a major economic crisis or major threat of War / Conflict. India is vulnerable to Energy, Water, Food and Manufacturing (military) interruptions.
China, Russia and S. Africa will ALL have Economic issues…if not open Conflict (Russia already….India & China?)
The entire Middle East has been at War / Conflict for hundreds / thousands of years…and that won’t change. Too much religious angst.
And they won’t be saved eventually as OIL continues to drop in influence / importance as Transportation converts to EVs. Gas Reserves will hold up the Middle East for a while longer…but that too will eventually pass.
I actually tend to think that India’s currency is the dark horse reserve currency, but whether the shadowbanking system starts issuing credit in Eurorupees is speculation, but India is the largest democracy by population, and can grow.
Why do people keep going on about dollars as if they are used for trade? Everyone knows that most trade is done in Eurodollars (overseas dollars), time-limited credit notes issued by the global shadowbanking system, and not much to do with USD.
1) Iran on the back of the line. The BRICS don’t want to aggravate US.
2) Modi sent the RMB to the bench. They trade among themselves with devalued currencies or barter. The dollar is strong, despite the hyperinflation, because other nations are losing their rating, deflating.
won’t hurt til they quit shipping to
fiat $currencies they don’t want