According to the Census Department, Older People Projected to Outnumber Children for First Time in U.S. History.
“The aging of baby boomers means that, within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older, compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.”
Race and Ethnicity
- The non-Hispanic White-alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060 — even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time among non-Hispanic Whites as that population ages. In comparison, the White-alone population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from about 253 million to 275 million over the same period.
- The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next several decades, followed by single-race Asians and Hispanics of any race. The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, their high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structures of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.
Children
- By 2020, less than half of children in the United States are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone (49.8 percent of the projected 73.9 million children under age 18). In comparison, about 72 percent of children are projected to be White alone, regardless of Hispanic origin.
- The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent today to 11.3 percent in 2060.
- The racial and ethnic composition of younger birth cohorts is expected to change more quickly than for older cohorts. In 2060, over one-third of children are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone compared with over one-half of older adults (36.5 percent compared with 55.1 percent, respectively).
Minority White
The Brookings Institute has charts and the story behind “Minority White“. Here are more images.
“Minority White” Tipping Points Differ by Age
Because minorities as a group are younger than whites, the minority white tipping point comes earlier for younger age groups. As shown in Figure 3, the new census projections indicate that, for youth under 18–the post-millennial population–minorities will outnumber whites in 2020. For those age 18-29–members of the younger labor force and voting age populations–the tipping point will occur in 2027.
In 2060 the census projects whites will comprise only 36 percent of the under age 18 population, with Hispanics accounting for 32 percent.
Observation
White nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible. Ironically they also want to stop birth control. So much for a consistent message.
The above thanks to reader Sechel.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Does it even MATTER in today’s job market and economy where millennials are doing extremely well if not better than those of the same cohort were doing in the late 1990s-2000s?? Did you know even a sanitation man or a subway conductor or Bus driver can make at least 150,000 a year in nyc. The city is in the best financial shape and more than able to meet pension obligations
Did you know that in the workplace and in life in general skills and what degree you have accounts for 30% and actually being likeable or actually getting things done is the other 70%
The media would be writing article after article about the booming economy if Hillary was in the white house just like they did in the late 1990s when her husband was in the oval office
And another fact. The majority of people who work in software engineering and web development do not have Computer science or engineering degrees and even the majority of people working on Wall Street don’t have a Finance or economics degree.
@Realist Where is this great Utopia you live in Realist? You mention you don’t care about who is in political power yada, yada, yada….you are one naive dude! I guarantee you would have cared about who was in political power let’s say had you been a land or business owner in say pre-communist China or Cuba right before the Marxists came into power? And I could give you a ton more historical examples like that. You are living in a naive child-like dreamworld if you don’t care who is in political power.
@Realist …..”I am apolitical. I couldn’t care less about political labels( left, right, up, down, etc). So I don’t really care which party is in power, as long as their doing a decent job. Second; I’m not American, so I don’t share your concerns on race, politics, gender, age, etc as it relates to the high levels of animosity that appears in so many peoples posts. In the long run, I believe, there is only ONE race, the human race.” —————–>oh how wonderfully Utopian of you…..lets all get together hold hands and sing Kumbaya
@Sechel …..”White nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible. Ironically they also want to stop birth control. So much for a consistent message” ——->I find it amusing that any other race that wants to stand up for their culture is allowed to and encouraged to. We have groups like the National Advance of Colored People (NAACP), many “black student unions” on college campuses across the US, many Asian and Hispanic organizations. Ohhhh but if so called “white” people even dare stand up for THEIR culture, gather together, they are given titles like “white nationalists”, “racists”, “xenophobes” to vilify them. What a crock of total BS. The term “white nationalist” is another one of those terms like “racist” often used by liberals as a very effective political tool and political weapon to try and damage their political opponents reputations and arouse opposition support. Some have even called libertarian hero Ron Paul these types of names.
@Realist “The racial demographic mentioned in Mish’s post, does not matter much to me. I don’t really care about a person’s “colour” or race; I just care about who a person is.” ——-> Well I hope you like far left political candidates, because that is who 80% of non-whites vote for (even more then 80% for blacks….95% of blacks voted for Obama, 90% for Hillary). Also get ready for more historic symbols, names, and statues of American history to be slowly torn down.
3. If you look around the world, it is ONLY white western democracies that take any immigrants (Western Europe, USA, Canada mostly), So these formerly white countries are or becoming no longer white, while there is NO NON-WHITE country in the world that takes any immigrants!!! No one ever points this out!!! Does China, Japan, South Korea, India, Mexico, Iran, etc… really take many immigrants??? NO they don’t! The racial demographics of THEIR countries are the same as they were 100 yrs ago. And my feeling is these countries may retain their culture and sense of identity white countries will see their cultures destroyed and replaced by the cultures of the immigrants countries. Immigration benefits are very ONE-SIDED. Great for the folks coming to rich white countries from 3rd world poverty ridden countries. But it isn’t really that great for the white residents of these countries they come to as they watch their communities and culture change overnight. What do they really gain from immigration? ??
My thoughts on this. 1. 80% of non-whites vote Democrat. So changes in racial demographics mean more liberal politics in the future. Its pure math. Get ready for Kamala Harris type marxists for president and a Dem controlled house and senate. Non whites do NOT vote for libertarian or conservative candidates (especial white male candidates). The entire USA will become a lot more like California is today politically. You already see places like Texas, NC, VA becoming more purple from being red. CA itsself used to be a mixed if not more right leaning state 50 yrs ago. 2. As Pat Buchanan writes, this is an experiment that has never been done in the world, EVER. So we don’t know how it will work out. There is no precedent for creating a country mixed with every race, religion, culture etc… For the first 200 yrs the USA 95%+ of the immigration to the USA was from Europe and the country has a legacy black minority of about 10%. So in my opinion everyone had a lot more in common and there was more unity and sense of identity. The USA may become a lot more balkanized and tribalized going forward.
For someone who claims to have a interest in demographics I find it odd that you’ve never alluded to the ponzi scheme that is about to bankrupt most Western nations i.e. state pension and subsidised (free, in many cases) healthcare for retirees. This is not an ideological position — just one based on ‘math’ i.e. the greater the number of retirees RELATIVE to the number of taxpayers, the greater the burden for taxpayers. If you have any grasp whatsoever of Western demographics you’ll know that bankruptcy is coming rapidly. This event will shake things up to such a degree that the new world order will barely resemble the life we know today. On the bright side ‘Progressive’ politics will be wiped out for generations and we’ll never hear the word ‘diversity’ mentioned again.
The other demographic that interests me, which Mish didn’t mention, is the percentage of highly educated and skilled workers a country has. The greater this percentage is, the stronger the country will be.}}} This percentage has been increasing in the USA for some time.. In many places like Boston, SF & NYC over 65% of the population has AT LEAST a bachelors degree.
People who “celebrate diversity”, what’s wrong with you? Are you insane not to understand that without a dominant cultural group any country will go down the drain very quickly? Diversity is ok, but to a point, and having less than 50 percent whites in America is certainly beyond that point. You don’t have to be a white nationalist, you don’t even have to be white to realize that. White minority will mean that ethnic groups turn on each other after first signs of instability.
The race or color may not matter, but the values they carry into this country do. And they carry with them a great tolerance for corruption, incompetence, decay, and so on. Of course, my ancestors did so, too, coming here from horribly destitute tyrannies in Eastern Europe a century ago. But America was different then: Public morals had little tolerance for bad behavior, and when it did occur, it was punished. Civics were taught to immigrant kids, who grew up as Americans with pride in accountable leadership and can-do attitude. It was expected of them, and they were rewarded for it. But not now. Today, nothing is expected of immigrants except cheap mule labor and gratitude to the establishment for letting them be slaves here instead of wallowing around their land of origin (“sh***ole”). They don’t know the first thing about our culture or civics or expectations — mostly because we don’t know about them either!
“White nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible.” Obama said he was going to fundamentally change America- into a Marxist utopia. Democrats want open borders in order to accomplish that end. In the Democratic Party, everything is racial identity politics now. Bill Clinton even declared himself to be the first black president. Ironically, the first black President, defeated his wife in the 2008 primary and she still has not gotten over it to this day.
“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” – A Toynbee
And in other news, the United States of America is projected to become a “shithole country” by 2045.
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“The banks will crash, communists will be elected….”
Considering today’s banks are little more than a Politburo branch by another name, not much change there….
Good on Texas, though. If Austin and other cities/counties could then leave the newformed Republic of Texas, while analogous processes takes place in other states; perhaps one day, some mixed-race future inhabitant of the current day US, will be lucky enough to live on a continent of a Thousand Nations. Each competing for residents and productive enterprise by behaving in a more civilized, less monopolistically extractive fashion than today’s totalitarian horror regimes.
Regarding South African land expropriation: It’s not meaningfully different from what has been going on in the Western (as well as the rest of the) US over the past 4 decades. In the US, the Fed has just printed up free purchasing power for its preferred clientele; so they could nominally “buy” the land. Result is the same for the original owners: Land transferred to some privileged Goldman leech, exchanged for nothing of any and value. “Our” way may be slightly more obfuscated, hence more acceptable to those of a hopelessly clueless and pliantly well indoctrinated persuasion, but that’s all the difference there is. Unsurprisingly so, as theft from the rest, for the benefit of the connected, is the only thing any possible government can and will ever engage in.
I second this. The banks will crash, communists will be elected and Texas will be the first to leave. Then a domino effect will be set in motion.
I hate to break it to Mish, demographic changes at these levels will lead to tensions far beyond what we are seek now especially in the deflation cycle we going in to. Take a look a South Africa. The aggrieved majority just vote to implement land appropriations for several thousand white farmers with no compensation. buckle up.
I sincerely doubt the so-call population projections will come to pass. I can see the US easily dissolving into smaller regions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see parts of the SW annexed by Mexico.
Wow! This is good news! It means that, assuming I live to be 100, I can form an 8B corporation and get favored treatment by the Federal government as a disadvantaged minority white.
If you live in a nice suburban town you don’t have to worry about this minority element. Check out most of the western suburbs of Boston or most of westchester county (one you are far enough away from Mt Vernon)
Something seems off about the mixed race coming in at 3.8%. In 2010, 15% of new marriages were mixed race (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/02/16/the-rise-of-intermarriage/) so it stands to reason the overall population will trend much closer to that number in 30 years.
excellent observation