This is going to come as a shock to most people but Larry Kudlow stepped up to the plate today and hit pitch right out of the ballpark.
“Just let it rip, for heaven’s sake“, says Kudlow of U.S. economy as he Warns the Fed Against Hiking Too Fast.
Perfect?
Yes, perfect. With that statement, Kudlow laid the groundwork for Trump to blame the Fed for hiking too fast when the next recession hits.
He made the statement in an hour-long interview on CNBC. That’s more perfection for you.
Camera Proven
The Boston Herald accurately noted yesterday that Kudlow is Camera-Proven.
Kudlow’s Track Record
I have still more perfection for you. I talked about it yesterday with an analysis of Kudlow’s Economic Forecasting Credentials.
- Bubble Spotting: In 2005, he said “all the bubbleheads” looking for a housing-price crash in Las Vegas and Naples, Florida, and the wider economy, would be proven wrong.
- Bubble Spotting: In December 2007, the month the National Bureau of Economic Research later dated the start of the recession, he was arguing there was no recession and that the “Bush boom continues.”
- Inflation Alarm: In 2010 he predicted Yellen is Spellin’ Future Inflation.
- Oil: In 2014 he argued lower oil prices are unambiguously good.
- Five Percent GDP: In 2015 , echoing Trump, he said the U.S. should have a 5 percent growth target,
- Recession: In 2016, Kudlow predicted a business recession looms.
- Tax Cut: In December, he said Trump’s tax overhaul will lead to 3 percent to 4 percent growth,
- Growth Angels: In December, he said the president is on the side of the “growth angels.”
- Long-Term Interest Rates: In February, he said that a recovering economy could push long-term interest rates beyond 3.5 percent
- Stock Market: He predicted the stock market would go up if Trump was elected.
Record Synopsis
Kudlow is 1-10. Point 9 is unknown. Let’s also add that Kudlow said “I Would Buy The Dollar And Sell Gold“.
Clearly, that’s sheer brilliance as the following chart shows.
Brilliant? Of course. Kudlow is 9 out of 10 for what Wall Street wants to hear!
Strike that, counting gold, he is an amazing 10 out of 11.
Tut Tut
Some of you will no doubt point out that 10 out of 11 is not perfect.
To that I say “tut tut”.
Harsh words indeed, especially from me.
ButTrump is only concerned about points 7 thru 10. Kudlow is a perfect 4 for 4. That’s what matters.
Measuring in Eyes of Beholder
- We must not measure things as they are.
- Nor should we measure things as they should be and what it takes to get there.
- Rather we must measure things from the perspective of what Trump wants to hear!
Beyond Perfection
The fact that Kudlow is camera-proven and willing to say anything Trump wants to hear is a step above perfection.
Mathematically that is impossible, but once again, one must view this through the eyes of Trump where forces of nature and math do not prevail.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
He also said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that we needed to invade Iraq in ’02. How perfect.
“To be sure, the greatest mistake Papa Bush ever made was leaving Saddam Hussein in place. Weakened or not, he is still there — and Americans have never liked loose ends. With weapons of mass destruction at his disposal, and through his financing of terrorism worldwide, Saddam is a dangerous loose end.
Decisive shock therapy to revive the American spirit would surely come with a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Why not begin with a large-scale special-forces commando raid on the Iraqi oil fields? This will send a shot across Saddam’s bow; an electrifying signal to all terrorist nations. The message will be that the game is up. Surrender now or you will be crushed in a short while.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2002/06/taking-back-market-force-larry-kudlow/
Kudlow believes optimism is a moral virtue, not objectivity. He’s a cheerleader.
With thanks to SMF, I added this Tweet to the post: https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/974392516102574080
Actually, it is very difficult to get everything either right or wrong. Even someone like Krugman is right about 25-30% of the time. Some people stand out as models to admire. Kudlow and Harry Dent are as good as it gets.
Kudlow is now working in an even bigger, more warped and twisted fantasyland (DC) than before (CNBC). But he’ll fit right in.
He’s got the same correct percentage in his prediction as most ‘experts’!
And if interest rates continue to stay low than overall debt increases. Does this economy really need more debt? Debt that probably can never be repaid? So decide which is worse for the economy. I don’t have the answer to that question. I don’t believe anyone does.
And if they hike too fast, the economy goes into recession, and they reverse course, then the Administration gets to say “See, I told you so!”. LOL!
“Yes, perfect. With that statement, Kudlow laid the groundwork for Trump to blame the Fed for hiking too fast when the next recession hits.”
In the industry, that is what we call, “hedging.” 🙂
Hmmm, I think I can see a subtle delta forming in Gray’s chart above, but who am I going to believe, Kudlow or my lying eyes….