Kiss Hong Kong’s Autonomy Goodbye
The Wall Street Journal reports China Votes to Override Hong Kong’s Autonomy on National Security.
China’s legislature approved a resolution to impose national-security laws on Hong Kong, overriding the territory’s partial autonomy in a bid to crush anti-Beijing protests that have challenged Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Thursday’s vote, at the end of a weeklong session of the National People’s Congress, paves the way for Beijing to implement legal and enforcement measures in Hong Kong that mirror how mainland Chinese agencies police activities that challenge Communist Party rule.It also sets China on a collision course with the U.S., which has accused Beijing of reneging on its pledge to respect the city’s self-governance. Washington has signaled it may take measures in response by declaring that it no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous from Beijing.
Trump’s Hong Kong Moment
Also consider Trump’s Hong Kong Moment
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined to certify that “Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China,” which under U.S. law can trigger sanctions and the withdrawal of trade and other benefits.
While “this decision gives me no pleasure,” Mr. Pompeo said, “sound policy making requires a recognition of reality.” China’s action to impose a national security law that will supercede Hong Kong’s Basic Law means Mr. Pompeo had little choice under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which President Trump signed in November.
The law built on earlier U.S. efforts to protect Hong Kong’s autonomy that the Chinese promised the British for 50 years in 1997. This includes special U.S. treatment for Hong Kong on everything from trade, visas and customs to cooperation on banking and law enforcement. The law’s logic is that if there is no longer much difference between Hong Kong and China, then those privileges shouldn’t apply.
How Might Trump Respond?
- Restricts visas
- New export restrictions
- Restrict investments
- Sanctions
The first three hurt citizens of Hong Kong more than China. Number four could, depending on the precise sanctions.
Export restrictions hurt US technology companies.
Generalized Visa restrictions will hurt the US travel industry and schools. The US could impose visa restrictions on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, but where is she going anyway?
Senators Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.) and Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) drafted legislation that would sanction anyone who undermines the legal autonomy and rights that China promised Hong Kong.
Trump Will React By the End of the Week
Trump has promised action by the end of the week, but Chinese spokesman say Trump will blink.
It’s likely Trump targets Carrie Lam. Her actions kicked off the protests, but the decision to impose news laws on Hong Kong came from Beijing.
The Wall Street Journal wants Trump to respond, but the only thing that does not hurt both Hong Kong and the US is financial sanctions under the Magnitsky Act.
Would that change anything?
No.
Other than taking symbolic measures or hurting US interests as well, there is little Trump can do.
More importantly, there is little the US should do. US interventions have a horrid track record do they not?
Finally, a friend of mine just pointed out the Hong Kong agreement was negotiated between the UK and China. The US is not party to that agreement.
China will break the agreement but why should it be up to the US to enforce it? And how many agreements did Trump break?
Mish
Sorry, he is busy now to “crush the local protests” …
Fair enough for Pompeo to withdraw special trade status, but beyond that Hong Kong is part of China. But why are human right in HK of more interest to the US than in Saudi Arabia or Israel or….
Selectively return Chinese students who happen to be related to CCP.
US trade policy is governed by the UK-China accord and treats Hong Kong as a separate entity. If the HK situation is no longer governed by the British-Chinese accord, the categorizing of HK also should no longer be governed by it.
Here is trumps war to get him a second term. .
Ultimately, Trump does not care about morality, he cares only about money. We saw that with Kashoggi and Saudi Arabia. We will see it again with Hong Kong. Trump admires authoritarians, because they can get things done. He will use HK to extract some things from China, and then turn his head to their abuses (as he does today in Western China—Tibet and the Uighurs) once he gets China to agree to buy more American goods.
Trump will get lip service from China. That’s about it.
George Floyd is a black man, an American citizen but black. No one here is the least bit concerned yet everyone like pompeo and fox are “concerned” about human rights in hk? How w about Manning’s exposure of US troops guning down children and civilians in iraq? Meh….
I am deeply concerned about all of the things you mention. But this is an article on Hong Kong so we are discussing Hong Kong. I would love to see Mish write more articles about the information Manning and Snowden revealed.
mish: no comments?
War is coming. China has become a global dictatorship with empire building tendencies.
When was the last time a #2 dictatorship didn’t start a war?
No war is coming. It would mean suicide. Nuclear weapons have really changed the world. There is no such thing as winning a war anymore.
As for imperial tendencies, who exactly does this moniker suit best within current global institutions and relationships? Who controls all the international bodies? Who has 1000 bases scattered in 137 countries? Who claims all the world’s seas? Who has active bombing campaigns in a few dozen countries?
Who are the Chinese bombing?
You hit on one reason why the “China will rule the world” brigade are divorced from reality. It is US power that keeps the seas open, keeps oil flowing from the middle east to China, etc.
If the USA ever becomes isolationist and stops deploying military power for the benefit of global supply chains, China is in deep trouble. They don’t have the ability to project force globally and are dependent on some long, thin supply chains.
If they are forced into backing up the supply chains with their own armies and navy, it will send the cost of empire to unsustainable levels for them.
I didn’t say they would start a war with the US. That’s the point.
China is going to start taking knowing the US won’t start a war.
China just suspended its GDP goals. They know the social contract is being broken. They have one option. Nationalism.
The CCP has serious human rights issues. It just happens to surface in HK. The simple fact is that one might be questioned just for writing these lines.
There is a price being paid when conducting business with an entity like CCP ruled China. I have been wary of that for many years.
I’m afraid there aren’t whole lot of reaction options. But, we should and could respond strategically. This does entail long-long-term thinking about the issue. For example, are we ok with consuming products manufactured under coercion, poor human conditions, environment where people cannot protest their grievances w/ the ruling party, etc.?
Ramp up freedom of navigation exercises in South China Sea? … that always pisses them off.
Not fast enough, and it relies on other parties that are not specifically Trump in that their involvement will detract from his singular powers. In this world it must be Trump, always Trump, in the front.
“Only I can fix it.”
I’ve learned over these past few years.
Wait until they return the favor in the Gulf of Mexico and Chesepeake Bay…
China doesn’t keep agreements and treaties, either? It is serious if two nuclear countries cannot be trusted with anything they sign.
So has China done anything that the Hong Kong’s people representatives have opposed? O, I forgot, Hong Kong was seized by the British in 1857 illegally, and has never had democratically accountable representatives. Has China done something which is unthinkable in a sovereign nation, such as the USA? I’ve not read about it.
Fact is, I have yet to come across an article that shows in details how the application of laws about national security would impinge on the human rights of Hong Kong citizens … it seems that it is all geopolitical posturing, and zero concrete concerns for actual Hong Kong citizens. Perhaps Americans should be getting wound up about the rights of the State to execute Americans without due process or to hold them without habeas corpus just by uttering the magical syllables “terr ur”. Or perhaps we should be concerned about what it means for the human rights of Hong Kong citizens, but I am not detecting any.
The CCP has serious human rights issues. It just happens to surface in HK. The simple fact is that one might be questioned just for writing these lines.
There is a price being paid when conducting business with an entity like CCP ruled China. I have been wary of that for many years.
Fool yourself but the ending of this story is already written.
Hong Hong will soon be a Chinese ruled city and with it no more freedom of press or expression.
What exactly is freedom of the press? In the West there is no balance to be found in the favorite MSM narratives either. Sure, dissent is tolerated in the margins, but that is because it represents no threat to official narratives.
And I’m not fooling myself. I’m just wondering if people actually give a rip about Chinese people and their rights or if this is just one big geoPolitical shitshow.
Freedom of press is being able to say what you want, when you want too. It’s a freedom that is always chipped away at for the public good but that good always seems to benefit the ruling class. Bias in itself is freedom of press. One view is the fear. We get very caught up in today but 20 years ago social media didn’t exist. It expect in 20 more years it will be just a memory to some other media type.
And no one really cares about Hong Hong outside of Hong Kong. They are a Chinese providence and there is no getting around that.
What’s going on here? The CCP is acutely aware of the fact that the people of the United States and it’s democratically elected leaders in Congress have decided that there is no more benefit in kissing their yellow asses and putting up with the 30 year theft of IP, the spying and cheating, the bullying that the CCP is inflicting on virtually every country in the world, with the exceptions of the usual non-democratic suspects (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, N Korea), the militarization of the SCS, and the fact that they believe they have the upper hand in all areas. It is time to call their bluff and live with the consequences today, rather than 10-20 years from now. If not us, who? If not now, when? Nobody wants war; but if war is necessary to stop this evil menace then it must be war. Anybody remember Neville Chamberlain and his waving of an agreement with Heir Hitler that there would be no more invasions of other countries? Communists are never to be trusted to stick to any agreement. Remember N Vietnam promising not to invade the South if we withdrew our forces? Remember China signing an agreement with Britain regarding Hong Kong that was to last until 2047? Breaking agreements, lying, cheating, stealing, invading, infiltrating, etc. are to be expected. It is what they do for a living.
Having studied these bastards and after serving 2 years during Vietnam, I understand the problem.
“Breaking agreements, lying, cheating, stealing, invading, infiltrating, etc. are to be expected. It is what they do for a living.”
O, and you think America is different? American secret services and its military do way more of this than any party on earth.
And it is not a bluff. The only one bluffing is America.
I don’t think outright war is going to happen unless China becomes overly aggressive.
We should slowly engage in the same cold war as we did with Russia and isolate China. A concerted effort by all industrialized nations to completely withdraw all manufacturing and business ties with them will hurt them the most. It will have cost for us, like inflation, YAY, but this is cheaper than outright military conflict. You are correct suffer now or a lot more later.
“….zero concrete concerns for actual Hong Kong citizens.’
The problem with Hong Kongers, is that they have gotten used to living large off of having it both ways: They’re Chinese when they need something from China, and Western when they need something in The West.
Back when China needed The West, the Beijing reluctantly went along with that. But it was never an easy sell to those across the Mainland border, why Hong Kongers should enjoy all manners of privileges they themselves did not.
And now, China doesn’t need some special-status conduit to The West anymore. Leaving Hong Kongers little more than no longer needed middlemen skimming off the top. Sensing that, the young are throwing tantrums.
They’re certainly not in a nice position, as they are ultimately going to have to come to terms with the fact that they are just Chinese people. Rather than creatures anointed by birthright to some sort of “Swiss” status, as a chokepoint that all interaction between the world’s largest economy and the wider world, has to pass through.
It’s a great city to visit. For a visitor, much preferable to any in China (at least as of a decade ago). But it’s easy to be a nice place, when you are granted specialness and special status virtually by default.
Only one answer possible—tariffs!
Sounds likely. We have a one trick only president.
It’s the only unilateral power that he is able to solely enact, therefore it is all about him and his magnificent brinkmanship.
None of that pesky back-and-forth negotiation with people who might have other ideas.