The US is restricting China’s access to advanced microchips. The US will regret the move in one of two ways. China will become self-reliant or there will be a real war. 
The Goal for China’s Chip Giant: Cut Out the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal reports The Goal for China’s Chip Giant: Cut Out the U.S.
At an industrial site with gray factory buildings surrounded by young trees, China’s chip champion is operating a new production line key to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s goal to eliminate reliance on U.S. technology.
By today’s standards, the operations done here by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. or SMIC, are retrograde, several generations behind the likes of industry leaders Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., commonly known as TSMC, or Samsung Electronics.
But SMIC, at the company’s new Jingcheng facility on the industrial outskirts of Beijing, is aggressively incorporating homegrown semiconductor-production equipment into its manufacturing line. Meanwhile, it is cutting back on its longtime reliance on industry-leading American tools, a person familiar with the matter said.
The line represents one of China’s most advanced efforts to date to commercially create chips with domestic tools—a technological self-survival tactic that would help inoculate Beijing from U.S. sanctions.
It is a part of a broader campaign to eradicate American technology in China, dubbed “Delete A” or “Decouple From A,” which has accelerated in recent years as the world’s two biggest economies intensify their battle to dominate in next-generation technology.
“By blocking everything, you force the sleeping lion to wake up,” said Konrad Kwang-Leei Young, a former executive at TSMC who served as an independent SMIC board member until 2021, referring to the state of China’s semiconductor industry.
At Semicon, a chip-tool exhibition that took place in Shanghai in March, some exhibitors emphasized their homegrown offerings. One featured a sign that read: “High level of localization.”
Meanwhile, Chinese companies are stockpiling foreign equipment untouched by the Biden administration or other governments’ restrictions.
Applied Materials and Lam Research, both based in California, each derived roughly two-fifths of their total revenue from China in their most recent quarter. About half of ASML’s lithography-system sales came from China in the first three months of the year.
Consider a Reverse Title
Due to export bans by the US, China and the US now have the same goal.
The WSJ title is accurate. However, a reverse title is also true. The goal for the US is to Cut out China.
The US Threatens to Sanction Companies That Don’t Give a Damn
On April 23 2024, regarding China’s cooperation with Russia, I commented The US Threatens to Sanction Companies That Don’t Give a Damn
The Biden administration claims Chinese companies help Russia rebuild its war machine. Our sanction proposal counter is laughable. China’s counterthreat isn’t.
The US Can’t Have It Both Ways
The US has stopped Chinese auto and steel imports. It has sanctioned phone maker Huawei. It has restricted Chinese access to Nvidia chips.
Why is China supposed to care what the US thinks?
Computer Chip Sanctions Fail
On September 4, 2023, I noted US Sanctions Fail Again, China Now Produces Its Own Advanced Computer Chips
Trump and Biden both tried to cut off China’s supply of advanced microchips. The US wanted to knock Huawei out of the 5G market. Now, instead of China using US chips, it is producing its own chips.
China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials
On September 7 2023, in response to US actions, I asked China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials, Just a Start?
On February 18, 2024, I discussed How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors
The US is far ahead of China on technology, but China is gaining ground faster than anyone thought.
The US wanted to restrict China’s access to 7nm chips but now it appears China is making its own 5bn chips, and the smaller the better.
When Trade Ends, Wars Start
One of the Three Reasons Japan Attacked Peal Harbor was the US cut off Japan’s access to oil and natural resources. War became inevitable. Japan chose to strike first.
The US and China are in a global trade war. And the EU is on the verge of joining that trade war, egged on by the US.
However, the end game is easy to spot. Either China will be successful at advanced chip production at a pace that satisfies China, or China will move to take Taiwan by force.
Our pride, ASML, is already banned from selling chip manufacturing equipment to China thanks to #$@#$@#$ pressure from the USA. Never heard of any billions in compensation for that. Well… maybe “our” guy Mark Rutte now gets the highest position in the NATO – what a win… not…
It is inevitable that the USA and China will go to war. The question is whether it will escalate to nuclear or not. Our politicians made a major mistake when they turned a blind eye to our businesses offshoring manufacturing to China, in their never-ending quest to generate increased PROFITS, because it gave China the license to appropriate (‘steal’) our technology.
Aso, China is an authoritarian country where even many of their own people try to escape from. It is not a country that the vast majority of people used to living under the freedoms of the west would be happy to live in.
This recent, interesting article illustrate just one example of the oppression and rampant government censorship that the Chinese people are forced to live under.
Holy Fuk
The shills have invaded.
NY times? Disregard this man.
I actually have boomer friend’s who think like this. Have you been to China and have you worked with the Chinese.
Do you even know any Chinese?
Remember they want to kill your kids.
These sock puppets are here to rally your complicity in killing your kids and kin.
Please STFU if you don’t have anything useful to contribute.
Was there something specific in the article you disagreed with?
I disagree with idiots.
I welcome intelligent discourse.
You’ve never had a novel thought in your life. It’s plain to see in your writing.
Brainwashed boomers and ad hominem spewing (((sock puppets))) are repulsive.
You’re almost certainly a disgusting vile, odious, shit filled flesh sack like every cuck man, who works for the unintelligence services, military, police or troll farms.
If you are a brainwashed boomer then you have adopted the tropes of those I listed above – that makes you a “useful idiot” which is truly inexcusable. If that’s true try reading some books written before 1975.
I know people who have these jobs – they sound and act just like you.
I’m almost never wrong about these things.
So where were you hanging out prior to Dec 2023 when you made your first post here? Most likely you got tossed out of wherever you were because of being an a**hole. Did you graduate high school?
I’m sure the “employees” of your “tech company” (if you actually have any) hate you and call you nasty names behind your back. And probably your ex wife and kids who likely hate your guts.
Mish should cancel your ID here because you don’t contribute anything positive.
China has the world’s worst debt and demographics crisis. I sincerely doubt that any attempt by them to invade Taiwan will work – due to internal insurgency and economic implosion. In fact, I suspect that the CCP is being provoked into a war to hasten its demise.
…and yes I speak Chinese, and I am quite close to the Chinese border right now.
Yes and I’m orbiting earth in the Space Station. If I look closely I can see you standing in front of your Toyota SUV in Langley Virginia.
Idiot! Where do they find these morons.
No one who speaks Chinese refers to it as speaking Chinese?
They generally speak:
Cantonese
Or
Mandarin
Or 100 other dialects.
Sock puppet be gone.
Go away. Ignore this troll.
Is it dangerous in North Korea?
“Remember they want to kill your kids.”
BS, man.
“As China’s Internet Disappears, ‘We Lose Parts of Our Collective Memory’
The number of Chinese websites is shrinking and posts are being removed and censored, stoking fears about what happens when history is erased.”
All the western democratic governments want the internet to disappear, so they can disinform us with impunity. The truth is dangerous to all these kingdoms of lies. Fauci just perjured himself again and the Democrats ran cover for him, again. Democrats attacked Taibbi and Shellenberger when they testified about the Twitter Files. Government corruption is global.
Don’t be so sure it was a mistake, it may well have been a calculated cost of furthering a bigger aim.
“It is inevitable that the USA and China will go to war.”
Only if cornered-cat-without-ANY-relevance-anymore-aside-from-a-big-grandfathered-weapons-stockpile US, goes to war in a last ditch hail-mary, in to desperately try keeping everyone else dragged down to their now sordid and despicable level.
China has exactly zero reason to go to war against some irrelevant has been barely even visible in its rear view mirror anymore.
But..: In the land of school shooters, sore losers without options do have a history of vengeful acts against non-losers they realize they are hopelessly inferior to.
If I read you right, we must give China whatever wants or there will be war so we must give China what it wants and by the way, it is consistent with Libertarian principles so we must give China whatever it wants. Correct me if I am wrong.
What’s your alternative? Keep Taiwan and China separated in perpetuity from our perch on the other side of the planet? Even if that were desirable, it’s not possible.
Sure. Why not? Switzerland speaks French, German and Italian yet they are not part of France, Germany nor Italy. What makes you think that just because Taiwan speaks Chinese it must be a part of China? On the other hand the Tibetans, who don’t speak Chinese, must be a part of China. Where is the logic? There isn’t any in your argumentation unless you believe that might is right. At least be honest about it.
What is your logic. It is not about the language they speak… it is world order established by WWII. Read history
It’s not that might is right – it’s that might is might. The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan, and the US doesn’t have the ability to prevent reunification. The only thing worse than abandoning Taiwan to its indisputable fate of reunification is to lead Taiwan to disaster by saying we will defend them only to abandon them anyway after much death.
China does not have the ability to make reunification happen, without destroying itself and a large chunk of the world economy with it. You also forget that China’s other neighbours can’t stand by and do nothing. Taiwan is not Hong Kong.
Your kind of simplistic thinking — that military conquest is the only kind of reunification — displays the very basic way your brain operates and no doubt has led you to great success at True-False quizzes. Unfortunately it will not lead you to solving multivariate equations in n-dimensional space.
The US has misled many countries by promising support and not delivering.
Taiwan has never been part of China.
They have their own languages too.
No one boils this down to a linguistic — and simplistic — argument. You need to be more informed on history and culture and the nature of US imperial ambitions through its instigation of conflicts in all parts of the world.
Move or hide Taiwan from China!
Ref1: TV show Lost.
Ref2: Cities in Flight by James Blish
Calling David Copperfield!
It’s also not possible for the CCP to do to Taiwan what they’re doing to Hong Kong. You have to realise that the economic and education disparity between the mainland and these internationally exposed places is huge. All the CCP really has is an army of indentured uneducated peasants. It has to keep them that way to keep control of them.
The cost of crushing Hong Kong is huge. In terms of actual expenditure (HK’s economy is massive relative to the mainland), and in terms of undermining long-term growth and losing prosperity to neighbours, not just in SEAsia, but in future to Japan and Korea after they finish going through their Japanification collapse, which China is also going through but delayed and with much worse demographics.
It seems Mish said that China just built their own chip, when deprived of access. Mish also seemed to say that “when goods don’t cross borders, armies do.” As i mentioned here before, Japan and Korea were hermit kingdoms in the mid 1800’s. The U.S. military forced both countries to allow American businesses to trade with them. Humiliated, the Japanese emperor set about modernizing the Japanese military. It was that modernized military which attacked Pearl Harbor.
I understand what Mish is saying. He believes that everything can be settled with trade and that strangely enough, withholding trade is the cause of war.
The CCPs objectives with trade are to keep the CCP in power and to realise imperial fantasies of territorial acquisition and economic and political control over other countries. To that end, the goals seem similar to those of the USA, a crucial difference however, is the demographic picture for the two countries,the education and motivation levels of their youth, and their ability to manufacture weapons and food to support a conflict. Ultimately China can be besieged into defeat and implosion.
“..consistent with Libertarian principles so we must give China whatever it wants.”
Nope.
Consistent with Libertarian principles is for government not to “give” anyone halfway around the world anything. Nor “take” anything away from them.
Simply live and let live. Trade freely with all, China as well as Taiwan. And Russia. And Iran. And Israel, And Gaza; whomever happens to nominally govern it. And Cuba. And Venezuela. And Pluto, should someone from there show up with something to sell.
And all that; without getting tied up in entangling alliances with any of them.
IOW: “We” have no business doing anything at all, about anything at all, which is none of “our” business. Hardly rocket science. Nor even all that complicated.
QQQ might rise bc Biden is forcing a ceasefire on Bibi and Santa Ana, next week.
QQQ might go to 2020 scamdemic lows because it’s been a PURE manipulated ponzi ever since then
Tel Aviv is feasting daily in restaurants, coffee shops, clubs and flying abroad bc they can’t take it anymore. A regional war with Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and the Hooties might hit the “elite” with 3,000 rockets/daily. Israel doesn’t have capillary for a marathon run. They might bonk within a month. El Sisi might colonize Israel, Jasa and and the west bank in order to block the Ayatollah and his proxies on his border. If Bibi and Santa Ana sign QQQ might rock, at least for a while.
Give us some proof of that. The Jews I know are not having any trouble at all.
The Jews and the Arabs in northern Israel and near Jasa are refugees. The ctr is peaceful for 7/8 months. The elite live on the Titanic. Captain Bibi should bypass the Iceberg.
Countries are not ships and problems are not icebergs. If it were so life would be easier but it is not so problems are much messier to solve and sometimes never are solved.
Egypt is far more concerned with it’s other neighbours in Ethiopia and Libya. They don’t need a third front with refugees.
China will end up being a smaller player with US shifting production out to safer and cheaper countries.
Logical outcome.
Problem is you said that 10 years ago.
China has had retail shops from one end of the 3rd world to the other for 25 years.
Chinese companies can move their mfg. to cheaper countries too and they will be welcomed in Africa.
Morons
Everyone’s a moron except for yourself. [rotflol]
But Africa isn’t like Asia…
Africa has six letters and Asia has four (in English, but there are other languages fyi).
What rock have you been living under for the past 50+ years?
The US HAS NO PRODUCTION. None. Nothing to “shift” anywhere. Which is exactly the problem. Paper pieces with dead guys’ heads on them being THE sole exception.
While China, OTOH, has darned near half the world’s production of darned near anything.
At one point, yes: The US was an industrialized country. With production that it could conceivably “shift.” Although, the very fact that one needs to “shift” production somewhere else, is pretty damning wrt competitiveness already….
But regardless: As pertains to the US: That whole spiel was problem last relevant as of two generations ago. And, even in the best case scenario (of literate Americans managing to elect a government of literates); it will take at least 2 generations of hard, meticulous work; and massive, massive shakeups; to get anywhere near back into to such a position again.
In the meantime; Americans will remain wholly dependent on China. With China having virtually no dependence whatsoever, on America. They can do what they want. We have to do what they let us do. That’s reality. As Obama put it: “Elections have consequences.” And when you get every single one of them them completely wrong, for two centuries straight without exception: Being the bitches of a gaggle of commies, is the end result.
On the one hand, it’s such a laugh to read someone say the “US will shift its production out of China”…on the other, it’s sobering to think this is the kind of unaware individual who reads Mish.
In other words, short the SOX and do it in size
If I was China, I’d be doing the same thing. The US is untrustworthy and lost all position by siezing Russian assets and getting involved in soverign nation’s disputes via proxy. Along with invading 3rd world sovereign nations to the tune of 18 or so since WWII. The Chinese must be asking “who do these arrogant bullies think they are to behave and operate in such a manner?”
Russia started a war, sowed the wind, and reaped the whirlwind. China cannot escape the same fate.
US started 7 in the last 20ish years and 18+ since WWII. Who is reaping the worldwind?
Moscow tapped the slave states dry of men for meat attacks. Last week Moscow started pulling Muscovite men off the street to replace the 38,000 men lost in combat during May. The Moscow chumps get four days training, 40 rounds of ammunition, and a bullet in the back of the head if they don’t run fast enough toward their certain death.
“KGB” sounds like CIA. Not a single person here believes what you said. Media Zona has been keeping a tally of Russians killed in the Ukraine since Feb 2022. They analyze Russian social media in addition to any other available data. Their count is still <60,000. MediaZona is run by Russian dissidents out of Latvia and is funded in part by the US government.
There are nearly 10k photographically documented losses of heavy equipment, even if only a few people died in each of those you’d be approaching that number, without any infantry losses at all.
But hey, around here we believe anything, so I’m probably wasting my breath.
Sure “Russia is weak!”
That’s why their economy is leaving ours in the dust.
It’s because they’re loosing and loosing and loosing
Dream on war pig!
Remember everyone!
The cretins?
“THEY WANT TO KILL YOUR KIDS”
They want to rob the future blind.
Creeps are destroying the promise of America!
If things were going fine for them, they would have been much farther along but they are not so something is wrong. Europe is pouring in weapons and if necessary men so the infection point has already passed. The invasion had to work rapidly or not at all.
That’s garbage. A rapid decapitation might have helped, but just looking at the terrain, it was always likely to become a war of attrition. A tactical retreat to more easily defendable positions avoids a massacre on the floodplains.
Reaching the river opens up a force to artillery and air strikes. Then the western part away from the coast is all upland, and hard to capture. The most likely progress is to be made along the coast to Odessa and the Moldavian border.
“The invasion had to work rapidly or not at all.”
Since that’s how Russia is notorious for fighting wars and all……
And your point is?
Projecting much?
Russia is clearly a loser. China is not but won’t be able to dominate the world.
This asshole wants to kill your children for the ruling western elites.
Burn in hell loser dude….
It really isn’t. The Ukraine puppet government has very little chance of projecting power and control over the Donbas and Crimea again. It’s having to retreat from its northern borders, and has to try and retain control of SW coast ports
The U.S. provoked a war.
Not true. America started that war.
Finding superior technology from wherever you can have been going on since time immemorial. I don’t condemn China for doing that. However I see no reason to make it easy for them and I do want to screw those who profit from it.
Now you’re talking. You’re definitely happy to destroy lives of millions just to pretend that you’re proud American and your country is the best of the best. Good on you
Name a trustworthy country? Probably a tiny one with no control over it’s destiny, like Tuvalu, perhaps?
TSMC halted construction of a government funded Arizona Fab because American engineers were not capable. An Affirmative Action token quota work force cannot manufacture precision engineering. One bad apple spoils the whole bunch. Detroit is proof.
Interesting. I just went and looked in to this. Thanks for spurring me on. I especially like how TSMC quietly says in some circles that since global business and US demand is falling sharply, they are concerned they will have enough demand to even use the fab for a few years ……..
SHORT THE SOX
It is absolutely in TSMC interest to have the US protect it and Tawain and if for some reason, such as having enough chips fabricated in the US, that protection might disappear and they would be very vulnerable. South Korea became a democracy for the same reason. It was necessary to keep the US completely on its side. That sounds terrible to some but in reality, it is what we need, that is allies with congruent political systems. These two countries are vibrant and viable democracies. We can work with them.
How about when the war is over and the U.S. is an atomic wasteland we track down the paid shills promoting war for globalist colonialists.
N Korea kills 3 generations of people like this for good reason. Characterless-ness runs in families. Military families. Are the example.
These creeps want to feed your children into a meat grinder. The same fucks who sent good kids to die for nothing in Vietnam are setting you up to kill your loved ones.
Do let them get away with it.
They killed 3000 Americans in NY.
They’ll kill you and your’s too.
Wake up people – this is what it looks like before this happens.
Do you love your kids more than pleasing corrupt immoral evil tyrants or not?
What’s it going to be?
Oh I see someone from Langley downvoted the fact – I said they want to kill your children.
There is no hell terrible enough for these people.
Buddhist hell of drinking molten bronze for an eternity sounds about right.
Listen you creep God will reincarnate you into the lowest most torturous form millions of times – you’ll never escape. No one escapes the Quantum recycler. You’ll get yours.
You are really weird fast bear.
Everyone here is weird. Most normal people don’t spend their time bickering online.
You are delusional. All these countries have huge trade surplus in bilateral trade with the US and would turn into your enemies otherwise. They are just waiting in the wings. You’re as good as you are paying them by buying their goods and services.
Our “elected” leaders are really dumb. I try to stay positive and focus on my own circumstances but there is no way these people are out maneuvering China and absolutely not China and Russia combined. The best weapons we had were free speech and free enterprise but those have been tossed in trash.
…add to that we once had a fair & honest legal system.
It’s been better that’s for sure
The Secretary of State looks like Gilligan.
I suppose a Putin who can play 3-D chess is better than our elected leaders? Or perhaps the Iranian leadership is a better model? Maybe we need an absolute dictator like what’s his name in North Korea to show us the way to happiness and prosperity? Let’s bring in the Hamas system of government since they certainly are good at making a population to do whatever they want. Ah the Chinese way of life where you have no say whatsoever in whatever the government decides whether at the local or national level.
Switzerland has the best system of government and beats the USA on many metrics as being a better country.
“suppose a Putin who can play 3-D chess is better than our elected leaders?”
Than Biden???? Simply learning how to speak Russian, requires brainpower well in excess of anyone allowed entry into the made-money-from-my-home special-ed club that is Washington.
“Maybe we need an absolute dictator like what’s his name in North Korea to show us the way to happiness and prosperity?”
Even compared to a basket-case corner case like North Korea: The change in happiness and prosperity of Kim vs Joe Sixpack, over the years since 1971; ends up working in Kim’s favor.
THAT is the relevant comparison. The fact that America, for a century or a bit more; post Jefferson; enjoyed better leadership than North Korea and hence; for the time being; still enjoys certain things most North Koreans do not; is pure sunk cost; wrt evaluating CURRENT leadership and leadership trends.
Per current trends; which is all that counts since it incorporates all manners of governance that any sitting or potential candidate has had any input on; even in North Korea, the change in living standards for most, has outperformed those for most Americans. Talk about low bar to still not be able to clear.
China, while still a communist dump; is of another order of magnitude altogether. The median Ching Chong; certainly in the coastal provinces; mostly enjoys greater access to almost all trappings of wealth; than Joe Sixpack does. Compare that to 1971….. Sure:If the Chinese had been governed by Jefferson Chong instead of the commies; they’d no doubt be even better off. Everyone would. But compared to current American “leadership”, of both public AND nominally “private” institutions, even the commies the Chinese are stuck with; are still miles and miles ahead. Hence why Chinese people, and companies, are also mostly miles and miles ahead.
That’s the difference between “our elected leaders” and pretty much anyone else anywhere. The fact that we started off a hundred times better off than the rest; back in 1965; has exactly no bearing whatsoever, on the complete non-quality of the current gaggle of illiterate nothing-but-trash classes comprising the absolute entirety of America’s “leaders.”
Do we really NEED all these chips? Is it possible that we’ve unnecessarily over-engineered simple tools & products just because we can?
“new & improved”… lulz… are we still falling for this same stupid sales pitch?
Just asking some questions that ought to be asked, you know, before we start lobbing nukes… cuz muh chips…
****************************
I’ll be driving pre-’95 (and older) vehicles for the rest of my life… don’t want chips… don’t need ’em… still getting from A-to-B just fine… on a dime.
Pitchers & catchers have “smart” earbuds now… ridiculous… and completely unnecessary. Hand signals will always be more efficient… and smarter. Ted Kaczyinski’s methods were unfortunate, but everything he wrote in that manifesto was spot-on.
We are still just apes, and no amount of silicon, circuitry or wifi is going to change that fact.
My lady friend has a refrigerator that is a computer,plays music, posts pictures, and oh yeah, keeps the food cold
Is all of that really neccessary?
I can’t say if it is necessary or not, that’s up to the purchaser to decide.
I can say, with a great deal of certainty, that all of those extra features add to the cost and repair complexity of the refrigerator.
Maybe… but warfare is where it’s going to matter, and the next war will be fought with drones and robots. This is a strategic concern.
Maybe… but drone & robot tech remains fatally dependent on BATTERY tech, a chemical equation that’s seen only marginal improvement in 200 years despite trillion$ of R&D investment by every space program, military & industrial concern on the planet.
Since we’re getting all strategic here, we could also include the two massive oceans that separate N.America from the rest of the world. Drones & robots may be “strategic” if you’re fighting (illegal) proxy wars on the eurasian landmass… 5000 miles from our homeland. But if we limit the scope to actual ‘national defense’ (you know, as prescribed in the constitution), then the oceans remain far more “strategic” than any battery-constricted technology by a factor of 100,000-to-one.
First.. you know nothing about battery tech.
Second, you can strap a little gas generator on the things, make them hybrids, and turn them loose to hunt for gas or power outlets.
i’ll let you think about how stupid your reply truly is… you obviously can’t think past your nose.
lemme guess… you’re on a Tesla waiting list for their fully autonomous driving golf cart.
i know more about batteries than you’ll ever know, but please maintain your incredulous attitude… it’s all you have.
Swallowing one and passing it doesn’t make you an expert, but I congratulate you on not having to go to the ER.
You should retract your statement that batteries have improved only marginally in 200 years.
we’re censoring the truth, are we?
If it is between the USA and China, it will be fought with satellites. You would be a fool to not believe that regardless of any treaties, we both have nuke weapons in satellites circling the planet.
The next Industrial Revolution is starting now with AI & humanoid robots & FSD.
The estimated cost of labour in 2035 is $1/hr, 2045 $0.10/hr.
Not sure what will happen to countries that aren’t a part of this but they’ll probably cease to exist eventually.
Whose estimates are those?
Those rates aren’t coming through innovation and acronym soup fantasies. It is possible those rates are correct but that’s due to the inevitable clash of the average citizen against the evil self anointed elite. Throughout history, the bourgeoisie always lose their heads eventually.
It’s not different this time
Yes if robots take off. Costs will drop dramatically but we need massively more electricity production. Got oil? Sorry. PapaDave got into my head.
Fusion power will provide all the electricity needed.
There is a difference in being able to make a 5nm chip and being able to make a 5nm chip while also being able to mass produce it. China can’t mass produce any of the leading edge chips like 5nm. They don’t have the equipment nor the know how to mass produce these type of chips. 5-10 years behind imo.
I tend to agree. Their quickly built forward bases in the South China Sea are showing signs of decay already. Quality isn’t a big deal if quality doesn’t cost you money. In a socialist/communist/planned economy it often doesn’t.
Easy to build. Hard to maintain. We know the problem very well.
https://pamirllc.com/blog/china-claims-progress-in-advanced-chips-as-it-seeks-workarounds-to-export-bans#:~:text=China's%20largest%20chip%20maker%2C%20Semiconductor,semiconductor%20production%20fabs%20in%20Shanghai.
Mass production of 5nm is planned for this year.
They are way behind……BUT China is more than willing to sell a 25nm IC with the same functionality, at the same or lower price, as the rest of the world sells a 5nm IC
I work with technology companies all over the world.
If it takes 5 years in the U.S. it takes a year in China.
If it takes 6 months here it takes a month there.
Whatever western metrics are applied need to be recalibrated when iterating new technologies in China.
Despite the 100+ steps in chip mfg. they will copy then exceed the west. They will find a way to cut the steps in half for 1/3 the expense.
They have just done this with WiFi devices Ubiquiti, Ruckus, Juniper, Cisco, Mikrotik – they just blew right by them.
Better devices
Better chip sets
Better priced
Better integration
Once they get on something they will rule it.
Electric cars anyone?
Xi Jinping’s goal to eliminate reliance on U.S. technology.
well WTO has enabled pooh bear to
1) steal 100% US patents
2) back engineer critical processes/tech
3) eliminate need to cooperate with TERRORISTS of DC
4) isolate west and bankrupt them
Of course in 1941 Japan had been fighting a war with China for several years and committed atrocities that shocked the world such as the Rape of Nanking. In part Pearl Harbour happened because the Japanese Navy, left out of things with the Sino-Japanese war, decided to do things. There was little cooperation between between the two services, And America hadn’t kept up its defenses. Si vi pacem, para bellum…if you want peace, prepare for war
And when stopped selling oil and scape steel exports to Japan to protest these atrocities some people today blame the US for forcing Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor. Go figure.
aren’t taiwan chip factories rigged to blow up if attacked? Then maybe the don’t care because the US won’t get the chips from them either? I have no idea.
Poor imperialist Japan, poor China, poor Putin, poor Hamas, they must invade by fire and sword those evil democracies that try to protect themselves.
Sorry, I don’t like the thesis of this article.
Tough
Has modern China actually invented anything new?
They have not needed to do so …. until the past few years when America has tried to cut them off. NO ONE can convince me that China has not hidden from plain view: STEALING CHIPS to reverse engineer them.
I (my Company) made Millions by reverse engineering Compaq Motherboards (my team). We offered to PAY COMPAQ and they did not take our offer and never contacted us again.
They just reported a cure for type 2 diabetes. And are working on a cure for asthma
Out of the Wuhan Lab of Virology?
But they would still need to get past our FDA before selling any such cures to the hoi polloi of the USA. The FDA is the biggest roadblock to getting cures to patients.
They definitely have the potential. I’ve worked with some fantastic Chinese engineers.
Plus the sheer number of STEM grads is ten times that of American universities. Too many of the smart people in the US go into law or finance, where they come up with bright ideas like outsourcing US manufacturing.
You get what you pay for, and those gigs PAY.
A good part of pretty much everything you buy…..
If you had ever tried to build nearly anything, you’d be aware of that. The US military sure is.
100.
Just WTF are these people smoking? Trump and Biden’s trade wars seem to be about being seen “doing something.”
They want us to smoke THEIR good weed.
The third possibility, perhaps implied, is that China will become chip independent AND there will be a war. To me, that is the most likely scenario.
As much as the old Cold War “superpowers” are by now reduced to nothing but childish chest puffing; and as completely misgoverned as they are in near every single way: It does seem like the guys involved with nukes there, still remain a breed above. One can at least hope that this will remain the case; such that they both can ride off into the sunset with a few ceremonial posts at the UN and the like intact; while their increasingly indignant populations are kept busy with Vodka and Fentanyl.
YES!!!!
Tesla is going to ZERO. Absolute ZERO.
Jeff Green – perhaps you can make a low ball offer and get a new tesla?
Two thousand Teslas arrive at Port Melbourne every month but sales slumped a massive 44 per cent in April, and many of the vehicles have been pictured waiting to be moved on from the busy transport hub.
US automotive giant Tesla has made multiple and significant price cuts to its fleet in a bid to compete with the growing Chinese EV market.
“All of a sudden we’ve got a huge backlog of Teslas that aren’t moving, they’ve just stopped moving,” Victorian Transport Association chief executive Peter Anderson said.
“Teslas usually come into the country pre-sold. These cars aren’t, they’re sitting here waiting for buyers.”
WATCH THE VIDEO ABOVE: Thousands of Teslas are piling up at Melbourne port.
https://7news.com.au/news/tesla-sales-numbers-slump-amid-uncertainty-over-evs-c-14905950
Lucky for Elon he has Twitter to fall back on.
Breaking News!!!
Venerable investment guru Jeff Green, noted for his acumen in purchasing used EVs with dying battery packs, checked into the insane asylum this morning. This was triggered by reading Fast Eddy’s post on Mishtalk and realizing his Tesla investments are now worth less than 0.
Childish and stupid. They cut themselves off from revenues that would have been gained from China’s huge market – that could have funded more R&D or infrastructure. Or development of the US labor market as to the tech involved.
there will be a real war, anyway
This article from Tom’s Hardware reiterates what Mish is stating…
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/huawei-patent-reveals-3nm-class-process-technology-plans-china-continues-to-move-forward-despite-us-sanctions
Dream on
China is blowing right by us?
If it took 100 US phds to engineer something in 1 year?
China will assign 1000 and get it done in a month. They work together better than Americans.
You will never beat the ant colony.
Working with TECH people in tech in the U.S. is a nightmare, excepting the project aspects that comes from China.
I use ex NSA NASA engineers and god they suck to work with. Their feeling are being constantly hurt. Children
Poor demographics and a push to higher value / tech production in China, move to robotics etc., if not combined with more share of GDP by the Chinese populace / consumer will lead to dire internal consequences. Thousands of years of Chinese history. Power from the center losing sight of the people, internal war and strife, power moves out into the provinces / warlords, instability leading back to centralized power, rinse, wash, repeat.
“It has long been understood that most financial data provided by the Chinese government is propaganda…”
By all those who understand nothing….
Heck: They may even; like the broken clocks they all are; be right on occasion.
In the real world: ALL “financial data”, at any aggregate level even remotely close to “national”; is a)irrelevant and b)nothing but propaganda. Triply so when “measured” in entirely arbitrary units which, themselves, are arbitrarily assigned “value” for what is, in no small part, propaganda reasons.
Those who do understand anything, OTOH; simply buy stuff from Chinese producers when those offer the best performance/cost. And avoid buying from them, when they don’t. No propaganda, nor (national aggregate) “financial data” required.
Pettis recap, 20+ years : The Chinese economy needs to rebalance from over production / mercantilist exports as majority of GDP to Chinese consumption. The CCP structure of central admin looking over regional / municipal admins cannot or will not do this. The housing boom / bust is a cautionary tale of central planning. The most unfortunate is that the US is becoming more like CCP’s China. No happy ending.
Its almost as if you’re saying the EV car mandate is a bad idea.
100 mpg internal combustion doable, but not with all the weight of safety products and electronics, chips included. 95 Camry 6 cyl got 40 mpg.
’80 vw rabbit got 50 mpg.
for all the regulations, standards, “concern for the environment”, and virtue-signaling feelgoodery, we’ve not been allowed to achieve anything RE: actual efficiency.
our busiest boulevards are choked by poorly-conceived traffic patterns & unnecessary red-light signals, often just 20 or 30 yards apart. one such road near me has 13 red-lights within .7 of a mile. Idling @ lights & turning lanes is the single greatest waste of time & fuel per vehicle operation.
hypocrisy is the dominant religion. low expectations are the gospel.