Even if all the gas cars in California could be replaced by electric (impossible) it would greatly increase the particulate pollution as the batteries for even the current small cars weigh half a ton. the roads and tires end up in the atmosphere much faster. Just to make one battery requires roughly half a million pounds of various ores.
You obviously have never been in an electric car. Look up “traction battery.”
mrchinup
1 year ago
None of this would have happened under Trump, he kept the corrupt globalist oligarchs at bay. But, but, the orange man is talks bad on twitter . SMH @ all the dopes that were against him.
phyl
1 year ago
You know Nikolas Tesla showed us how we can live on the electricity that surrounds us and that we can have FREE ENERGY to power up our vehicles and transportation across the world, but the greed of a few began metering every energy output for their own personal wealth and thus gained control of the masses, to the point of dumbing down the people keeping the people ignorant and in servitude to them. For example,
“Physicists, oil and gas companies and your governments all know that six feet (2 meters) above the ground (above head height) the air is charged with more than 200 volts positive in respect to the ground. That 200 volts + charged air is a source of free, unlimited, unmetered and carbon-free electrical energy.
This free energy has already been tapped into by World renowned scientists such as Nikola Tesla and Henry Moray. Both tapped into this infinite supply of pure, zero emission electrical energy using a simple antenna. Nikola Tesla powered a 1931 Pierce Arrow automobile 83 years ago with this free energy and he drove the vehicle at speeds of up to 90 mph for a great distance. Moray powered 35 100-watt light bulbs and a 1200-watt iron simultaneously.” We certainly do not need these unnecessary nonsense, at all:
Will the production of lithium, cobalt, manganese, and nickel be sufficient to make all the batteries? At what price?
Can the electrical grid take the strain?
Will there be enough charging stations?
Who will pay for all the charging stations? We need to GET OFF THIS WAY OF THINKING, really! We don’t need it!
Put the low income on public transportation and free up the roads for important people with things to do.
Traffic is terrible. It is time to stop the low income nuisance especially in our big cities.
Traffic is getting terrible and time is money. If we can get rid of all the gasoline cars that the low income people own we can keep them off the road.
They won’t be able to afford electric cars, and even if they could, if they live in an apartment building they will have no where to charge them or have to pay double. If important people can safely charge their cars at their homes overnight, the poor will be at charging stations during the day and paying double for the electric – so that too will keep them out of the way.
Mandate EV ! Save time, save aggravation, reduce accidents; keep the low income off the road.
StukiMoi
1 year ago
“Climate Policy Is a Much Greater Threat Than Climate Change”
Just another special case of “X Policy Is a Much Greater Threat Than X.” For pretty much every X ever.
“Policy” is rarely more than feelgood newspeak for why it’s OK that “We”; instead of doing something productive with our pathetic, talentless little lives; get to dream up with ever more harebrained excuses for forcing “them” to do something involuntarily. Just feelgood tripe for morons who noone would spend a minute listening to, if it wasn’t for their asymmetric access to guns.
xbizo
1 year ago
If we are serious about climate change, there is no choice but to develop nuclear. Although I am not for taxes to redistribute wealth, taxes on externalities, such as CO2 make sense, as do taxes on excesses of the wealthy. Tax SUVs, private jets, mansions, coal, gasoline and diesel and have those taxes go to build out nuclear and EV infrastructure. Dems get to tax the wealthy and movement on climate change. Republicans get a durable long-term investment into infrastructure and a change in image of being environment abusers.
PS: invest in oil & gas capacity too. The solution to is to curb demand. (Definitely not the trend of a ‘my rights’ society) Let supply grow to protect the less wealthy. Plus, use of natural gas helps climate in the short term.
Call_Me
1 year ago
“Policy decisions by clueless heads of state bow down to Saint Gretta, AOC, and president Biden.”
When Greta first took the world by storm she wasn’t particularly knowledgeable about climate dynamics or the effects of political policy. I suspect that holds true today, despite her approaching the end of her second decade. People used a child as a tool to manipulate the emotions of ‘the masses’, as such she’s more deserving of empathy than being lumped into a group of unsavory politicians.
Climate change is definitely a threat to Man. Always has been, always will be. But the idea that man can somehow control the climate using solar panels and windmills is absurd. We can’t beat Mother Nature!
Wind turbines. There really isn’t anyone who does their milling with wind power these days.
Call_Me_Al
BlauGloriole
1 year ago
There are many policies across the globe to which descriptors such as madness, deranged or idiotic apply. Such stupidity has always been around however the universality and frequency seems to be unique to our current times.
GodfreeRoberts
1 year ago
“What needs to be stress tested is the reverse, the inflationary impact of a push for clean energy before battery storage technology exists, grid improvements exist, and whether or not physical metals for all the batteries that will be needed are even available.”
China has stress-tested the reverse, inter alia. It is by far the best source of information about the costs involved in switching to renewables. It leads the world in research, manufacture, and construction of all clean technologies and has high-level models that permit real-time monitoring of all critical inputs.
Using this, it has gone from 4% to 32% renewable energy and is currently installing more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. Inflation is 2.5%, and their network availability is better than ours.
Too bad we aren’t talking to them. We could save a bundle.
WRONG! China gets less than 14% of its energy from renewables, mostly hydro. Less than 6% comes from wind and solar. (Our World In Data)
You have probably repeated the common lie of giving the figures for electricity generation, not energy. Climate nutjobs often use this deception to try and make it appear that renewables are useful, when in fact less than 4% of the world’s energy comes from renewables.
doc-meradi
1 year ago
You are right on target with this, and it is refreshing to see some common sense on the topic of climate change.
Webej
1 year ago
Just noted that 1/3 of households are in trouble with their utility bills.
For many, they are just starting to see a reset of their rates as their contract rolls over.
Not just low-income, but a lot of the middle class households with two jobs and a stratospheric mortgage to service next to their utility bill, with mortgage rates to reset higher for anybody who moves or sells under duress. And pensioners on fixed income from government bonds that are sinking.
There will be millions disconnected from the grid the coming winter … income support does nothing to conjure up more gas or electricity.
What do you think crowds of normal hard-working people with little kids in a freezing house and unable to use their laptop or charge their phone, to be able to communicate at all, what will they do? Especially if low-income households are rescued, but they are abandoned.
Will they blame Putin or the current political class for the emergency they have been submersed in, with forces trying to push their head underwater?
TheCaptain
1 year ago
All part of the liberal agenda that some people thought was better than mean tweets and orange hair.
8dots
1 year ago
The problem is clogging in the main arteries. When the sun shine, between 11AM and 4PM, solar takeover. Coal, nuke, wind, hydro and import have to wait until sunset. Redundancy is expensive. Idleness at premium rates sent utility to bk.
Actually, some good points here. Solar produces maximum energy from 11-4pm in mid-June.The maximum demand for energy is in the evening, Storage is expensive. Ergo, alternative systems are needed. Fast-start diesel generators, coal, hydro, and nuke are the usual supplemental energy generating systems. Duplication increases the cost of energy.
“Coal, nuke, wind, hydro and import have to wait until sunset” is laughable, drunken nonsense. As for the cost of duplication, I bet California wishes they had some duplication right now. Reliance on one method of generation is foolish.
JackWebb
1 year ago
I posted about fuel economy, but I used the common term for transmission and ran afoul of the artificial stupidity. Probably because I didn’t use the right pronouns. LOL
JackWebb
1 year ago
Let’s talk about charging stations.
To me, this is going to be the achilles heel for quite a while. Throw money at it and there can be charging stations all over the joint. That’s not the issue. The problem is charging time. I have a Toyota Rav4 gasser, which gets about 22 mpg. The average gas pump runs at 5 gallons/minute, so the Rav4 adds 110 miles of range per minute. I also have a Ram 3500 pickup that gets 16 mpg. It adds 80 miles of range/minute.
Tesla’s so-called “superchargers” add 4 or 5 miles of range per minute, and often less because the station is full and sharing a trunk line. The so called “DC fast chargers” that the EVangelists are promoting are lucky to add 3 miles of range/minute. As EVs go mainstream, drivers will learn the hard way about stopping for an hour every couple hundred miles. And that electricity is going to be marked up like crazy.
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Let’s take the change in sea level as an example of climate change, but let’s look at the geological record….
In your second chart, I’m not sure what point you were trying to make. The obvious take aways from that chart is that CO2 levels are cyclical over hundreds of thousands of years and thus have nothing to do with mankind. In fact, we are now at the same CO2 level as about 125k years ago when man was a non factor. Was that your point or was there something more subtle that I missed?
That and a perfect correlation with sea levels… Sorry, no free black-hole trip to Uranus. I do have a 3-day one-way passage for your DNA to Venus for $5,499. You be cloned in 10,000 earth years.
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Super-low interest rates maintained by the central banking cabal fostered frenzied home building, including jumbo homes, weekend cottages, yachts, wealth effect inspired general splurging etc…all contributing to the destruction of the environment.
Now these knobheads want to include climate change in their mandate. Cognitive dissonace, a euphemism for stupidity, is very strong there.
In addition, the artificially low rates forcefully also served to transfer near all wealth to an ever smaller, ever closer to central banks, clique of the genuinely clueless. And since wealth ultimately is a measure of resource control, those idiots are now the guys who allocate increasingly all resources. Which, being idiots and all, they have no choice but to do badly.
Further, since this ever shrinking dumbeff clique has by now been transferred such insane amounts of unearned wealth: Even gratuitously bad misallocation does not come back to hurt them, nor those in their social circle, personally. Gavin Newsom simply won’t struggle to keep the lights on, no matter how far off the rails he steers California energy policy.
So: not only are those now allocating all resources genuinely stupid. They are also genuinely blind. Pretty bad combination there……
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
No hurricanes have impacted the USA so far this year. Is that climate change or probability? I’m betting probability, the tail end of a distribution–the end result of a set of factors ranging from a ‘butterfly flapping its wings’ to sand storms over Africa. A climate believer would say change caused by humans–the original sin of the modern era.
JackWebb
1 year ago
I have the answer to one question: Can the electrical grid take the strain? The answer is “yes.” This isn’t my way of endorsing the idea of forcing people into EVs, but rather to factually answer the question. Read on:
1. The average car is driven 32 miles a day. (Federal Highway Admin.) No one can definitively say how far the average EV is driven, but they have less range so for my calculations I used 30 miles a day.
2. The typical EV gets 3.5 miles/kWh. But as they become more popular that number will probably decline because the first EVs are almost entirely compacts. I used 3 miles/kWh for my calculations.
3. #1/#3 = 10 kWh/day
4. The average household uses 30 kWh/day (Energy Information Admin.)
5. >95% of EVs are charged at home overnight when electricity demand is low. (Commonly reported, and logical.)
6. There are 108 million light-duty passenger vehicles (cars, SUVs, pickups) in the United States (Federal Highway Admin.) For my calculations, I rounded it to 110 million. 110 million x 10 kWh = 1.1 billion kWh/day for EVs or 401.5 billion kWh/year.
7. In 2021, the U.S. generated 4,115,540,000 kWh. That’s 4,115.54 billion, or 11.275 billion kWh/day (Energy Information Admin.)
8. #6/#7 = 9.7% extra electricity needed to convert the entire personal vehicle fleet. Almost all of which will be used overnight.
There is no “national grid.” There are local and regional grids. It’s a big country, so there will always be issues somewhere, just like there’s always some weather record being broken somewhere. But in the aggregate, EVs are not an electric consumption problem.
A bit of trivia: The vast majority of EVs are charged at home on the same circuit as an electric dryer: 240 volts, 30 amps. This makes them the equivalent of an electric dryer, which uses 5 kW an hour at the highest setting. The average EV will need the equivalent of running an electric dryer for 2 hours. In the middle of the night. There will be variations: more in the winter, less in the summer for starters.
Using your numbers, the average car requires 3,650 kWh/yr. Peak generation of solar power varies, eg Colarado is 2000 kWh/m2 of solar panel per year, while Michigan is 1400 kWh/m2/year. Thus, a car in Colorado only needs two square meters of solar panel on the roof, no other charging needed if the car is parked in the sun during the day.
I am not adequately conversant with solar panel generating details to comment on your calculation.
I can say this much: It doesn’t matter how the electricity is generated. The way to think of an EV is to look at it as just another appliance, and the most comparable appliance would be another electric dryer. Each EV = an electric dryer run for 2 hours a night. In this country, it can be powered by (in order) natural gas, coal, nukes, dams, wind turbines, or solar panels. Take your pick.
By the way, I live 25 miles from the northern end of the Pacific Intertie, the world’s longest (880 miles) high-voltage electric line. It runs from The Dalles, Oregon to northern L.A. I’ve been at both ends. The line is now at full capacity, powered by The Dalles Dam. The Bonneville Power Administration wholesales the juice to our local utility for 3.75 cents/kWh. California? They’re paying 22 cents/kWh wholesale. Suck it, L.A.!
#7: Be careful with thousands. The US generated 11.275 million, not billion kWh per day. 4,115,540,000,000 Wh / 365 = 11,275,452,055 Wh, or 11.275 million kWh.
Also, I’m not believing 95% of EVs would be charged at home without a pretty significant change to where people in apartments park their cars. Now, making electricity available in parking lots and the like isn’t unprecedented. Block heaters. But, as Doc might say to Marty, “We’ll need a little more ooomph.”
The zeroes are indeed an issue, but I am afraid you got it wrong. This drives everyone nuts, but I’ve been through it many times. The U.S. generated 4,115 billion kWh in 2021. That’s 11.275 billion kWh a day.
Electrify 110 million personal vehicles, and demand will rise by 1.1 billion kWh/day, or just under 10%. Some of that will be during the day, but the vast majority of it will be overnight. Apartment buildings will be an issue. If they don’t run 240v/30A circuits to their parking lots, people who recharge their EVs are still going to do so overnight because of how long it takes. And they’ll pay through the nose. Sure, some people won’t do it that way, but once they figure it out that’s how it’ll go for the vast majority of drivers.
It gets even better. Consider that 4,115 billion kWh = 4.115 trillion kWh = 4.115 petawatt hours or 4.115 quadrillion watt hours a year. You can see why the zeroes make eyes roll. Do it on a calculator and you get exponential notation, and that’s even less fun.
So, every day, the U.S. generates 11.275 billion kWh/day, or 11.275 TWh (terawatt hours, trillions of watt hours) a day. Multiply it by 365, and that 4.115 petawatt hours a year. Trust me, I’ve made mistakes with those zeroes, but not this time.
On the apartment front, a bit more. In 2021, there were 208.4 million single family houses in the U.S. and 37.8 multifamily, for a total of 246.2 million. Apartments would thus be 15% of the housing. At the moment, I don’t know the vehicle ownership rates for SFH v multifamily, but logic would very strongly suggest that vehicle ownership and use is higher among single-family dwellers.
If I somehow wanted to promote EV adoption, I’d target single-family dwellers because a) they almost certainly have a higher rate of vehicle ownership and use, and b) overnight charging will be virtually universal in that group, and will put no extra stress on the grid subject to the qualification that it’s a big country and there’ll always be exceptions.
Yeah, reviewing a new Google search and now I see the 4 pWh equivalent. Sigh. Thanks. (comma is not a dot – except in the wrong font to fuzzy eyes – or to Euros!)
I am not dumping on you, and I hope you noticed. When you get into those zeroes, it is really easy to make mistakes. I’ve done it enough that I still re-check when challenged. After billions, watch out.
California’s problem has no relationship to EVs. By the way, they want people to wait until 8 or 9 p.m. to charge them. Try not to be so lazy. Do some reading. And no, I am hardly any kind of spokesman for Calif-you-stan. They are running themselves into the ground. But in this little sub-sub category, you’re wrong, and you’re wrong because you know nothing and were too lazy to check.
No, it’s highly relevant. The entire premise for going EV is so that we can supposedly replace conventional power generation with wind and solar. If everyone charges at night or runs their heater/AC at night, or watches TV and cooks a meal and showers in the evening, this isn’t going to work. What we need is for people to charge their cars, take their shower, run their AC/heater, cook their dinner and watch TV only during the the hours of daylight. And then wrap themselves up in insulation and do nothing at night.
An EV is another appliance. It doesn’t matter how the electricity is generated.
paperboy
1 year ago
those who don’t learn from history…
and this story isn’t that old.
I n the early portable pc days (luggables, bigger than a breadbox, smaller than a suitcase) a company came out with a much in demand machine. The sales droids caught wind of a new, better version on the drawing board and started talking it up like it was right around the corner before the engineers could shut down their expectations. When word got out, sales tanked waiting for the new.
That killed income, reducing r&d funds. when they finally were able to produce they were lapped by competitors.
Nuddernoitall
1 year ago
Joseph C. Sternberg of the Journal’s editorial board is either a brave or stupid man. Doesn’t he realize his published comments are heresy and grounds for time in the gulag? Certainly there must be a “Ruth Sent Me” anti-WSJ posse to march like walking cadavers outside his residence. Yes, I realize his opinions are factually right on, but so what. YOU, Mr. Joseph C. Sternberg have broken the rules of the chosen few who decide what’s best. Now your punishment is to shut up!
dpy
1 year ago
Tangential – read about how only about 5% of EV batteries are being recycled. They can be used for some years as storage at solar houses after they are no longer good for powering vehicles, but eventually they are not effective. They are difficult to handle and store, presenting a significant fire hazard and lots of toxic chemicals. It seems that there is not much money in recycling them, and I wonder if the fire hazard is part of that. The green agenda brain trust is not considering a variety of down-stream issues.
There aren’t many EV batteries being recycled because there aren’t mean dead EV batteries yet. As those numbers grow, they’ll be recycled just as lead-acid batteries are. If you weren’t so lazy, you’d take a few minutes for an internet search. EV battery recycling is starting to happen, but thus far there aren’t enough of them to recycle.
I need to say: I am not an “EVangelist.” I am a “Factangelist.”
hangarcat
1 year ago
Thank you thank you thank you
8dots
1 year ago
Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what u are gonna get.
8dots
1 year ago
Let the dem destroy themselves. If the dem lose the senate McC will do what he can to prevent Biden from becoming a
president again. Satya Nadella cashing in destroyed NDX. NDX got a kick in the face, but keep fighting in the cage. Round #8 out
of twelve on live screen, for fun and entertainment.
Karlmarx
1 year ago
Stupid is as stupid does – F Gump
Mish
1 year ago
It’s not amazing “news”.
20% growth per year is as much news as a nonsensical prediction that black holes will soon be able to transport us to Mars and back in 5 seconds.
It is unfounded, unscientific, preposterous hype (not news) of a ridiculous AI projection.
The ongoing costs of both climate change and the transition from fossil fuels to renewables is going to be high. You raise a lot of excellent points.The transition is going poorly so far. So poorly, that the demand for fossil fuels is still increasing. Which was foretold by the prophets on this site over two years ago. It’s why I sold my tech and loaded up on energy.Mish. You should also do some stories on how much climate change is already costing us and how much more it is going to cost us in the future as the world continues to warm.Thanks.
Robbyrob
1 year ago
With the current pace of development in AI and as demos turn into full
featured products and services, I can see the overall US GDP growth
rising from recent avg 2-3% to 20+% in 10 years This is a seismic shift,
which is really hard to think and reason about… link to twitter.com
AI fanboys are the eyeballs based revenue generators of dot com era. It’s not so stupid an idea but the believers think that AI is going to turn world into a Startrek utopia
You assume that AI compensates for LI (low intelligence). LI is a growth industry, taking over schools, government, media…
Zardoz
1 year ago
…Until that first widespread crop failure. Climate policy IS terrible, but it’s being actively monkewrenched by established interests. So we get the worst of both worlds.
You have no proof that humans can’t change the climate. None. This is something you accept in faith. All fine and dandy, but don’t act surprised when people don’t believe your religious statements.
“We don’t even know if the next 10 years will be warmer or cooler.”
Of course we know. As we keep pumping more GHG into the atmosphere, we continue to warm the planet more and more. Basic science.
“We need to adapt to the climate as it changes.”
Correct.
“That is all we can do”.
No. We can try to limit ghg emissions and pull ghg out of the atmosphere. But at this point, it is incredibly expensive and very difficult to do so.
So, we are going to keep using fossil fuels until we have enough suitable replacements. And I am going to remain heavily invested in oil and gas companies
Religion. Science. Call it what you want. Frankly, I don’t give a f*ck.
But since almost all governments (national, regional, local), corporations (large, medium and small), scientific groups, and the majority of the world’s population understand the problem and are looking for a solution, that’s good enough for me.
Because that means that they recognize that we are in an energy transition for next several decades. And I intend to profit from this transition. Which is all that really matters to me.
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We certainly do not need these unnecessary nonsense, at all:
To me, this is going to be the achilles heel for quite a while. Throw money at it and there can be charging stations all over the joint. That’s not the issue. The problem is charging time. I have a Toyota Rav4 gasser, which gets about 22 mpg. The average gas pump runs at 5 gallons/minute, so the Rav4 adds 110 miles of range per minute. I also have a Ram 3500 pickup that gets 16 mpg. It adds 80 miles of range/minute.
Tesla’s so-called “superchargers” add 4 or 5 miles of range per minute, and often less because the station is full and sharing a trunk line. The so called “DC fast chargers” that the EVangelists are promoting are lucky to add 3 miles of range/minute. As EVs go mainstream, drivers will learn the hard way about stopping for an hour every couple hundred miles. And that electricity is going to be marked up like crazy.
1. The average car is driven 32 miles a day. (Federal Highway Admin.) No one can definitively say how far the average EV is driven, but they have less range so for my calculations I used 30 miles a day.
2. The typical EV gets 3.5 miles/kWh. But as they become more popular that number will probably decline because the first EVs are almost entirely compacts. I used 3 miles/kWh for my calculations.
3. #1/#3 = 10 kWh/day
4. The average household uses 30 kWh/day (Energy Information Admin.)
5. >95% of EVs are charged at home overnight when electricity demand is low. (Commonly reported, and logical.)
6. There are 108 million light-duty passenger vehicles (cars, SUVs, pickups) in the United States (Federal Highway Admin.) For my calculations, I rounded it to 110 million. 110 million x 10 kWh = 1.1 billion kWh/day for EVs or 401.5 billion kWh/year.
7. In 2021, the U.S. generated 4,115,540,000 kWh. That’s 4,115.54 billion, or 11.275 billion kWh/day (Energy Information Admin.)
8. #6/#7 = 9.7% extra electricity needed to convert the entire personal vehicle fleet. Almost all of which will be used overnight.
A bit of trivia: The vast majority of EVs are charged at home on the same circuit as an electric dryer: 240 volts, 30 amps. This makes them the equivalent of an electric dryer, which uses 5 kW an hour at the highest setting. The average EV will need the equivalent of running an electric dryer for 2 hours. In the middle of the night. There will be variations: more in the winter, less in the summer for starters.
So, every day, the U.S. generates 11.275 billion kWh/day, or 11.275 TWh (terawatt hours, trillions of watt hours) a day. Multiply it by 365, and that 4.115 petawatt hours a year. Trust me, I’ve made mistakes with those zeroes, but not this time.
If I somehow wanted to promote EV adoption, I’d target single-family dwellers because a) they almost certainly have a higher rate of vehicle ownership and use, and b) overnight charging will be virtually universal in that group, and will put no extra stress on the grid subject to the qualification that it’s a big country and there’ll always be exceptions.
I need to say: I am not an “EVangelist.” I am a “Factangelist.”
It is unfounded, unscientific, preposterous hype (not news) of a ridiculous AI projection.
The ongoing costs of both climate change and the transition from fossil fuels to renewables is going to be high. You raise a lot of excellent points.The transition is going poorly so far. So poorly, that the demand for fossil fuels is still increasing. Which was foretold by the prophets on this site over two years ago. It’s why I sold my tech and loaded up on energy.Mish. You should also do some stories on how much climate change is already costing us and how much more it is going to cost us in the future as the world continues to warm.Thanks.
featured products and services, I can see the overall US GDP growth
rising from recent avg 2-3% to 20+% in 10 years This is a seismic shift,
which is really hard to think and reason about… link to twitter.com