Argentina had a choice: Stick with a socialist and massive hyperinflation or try something else. Argentina chose wisely.
Polls Wrong Again
It was supposed to be a very close election. But the polls got it wrong again.
Libertarian Javier Milei whomped Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa, by a margin of 56-44 percent.
Leftists Sons of Bitches Be Afraid
“Leftists sons of bitches be afraid. Hail freedom damn it!”
Shock Therapy
Reuters reports Argentina Elects ‘Shock Therapy’ Libertarian Javier Milei as President
In downtown Buenos Aires hundreds of Milei supporters honked horns and chanted his popular refrain against the political elite – “out with all of them” – as rock music played from speakers. Some people set off fireworks as excitement spread.
“We came to celebrate this historic triumph,” said Efrain Viveros, a 21-year-old student from the province of Salta. “I’m honestly ecstatic. Milei represents change, for the better. With Massa we’d have had no future, our future has returned.”
Milei is pledging economic shock therapy. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso, and slashing spending, potentially painful reforms that resonated with voters angry at the economic malaise.
Milei’s challenges are enormous. He will have to deal with the empty coffers of the government and central bank, a creaking $44 billion debt program with the International Monetary Fund, inflation nearing 150% and a dizzying array of capital controls.
Milei’s win shakes up Argentina’s political landscape and economic roadmap, and could impact trade in grains, lithium and hydrocarbons. Milei has criticized China and Brazil, saying he won’t deal with “communists,” and favors stronger U.S. ties.
What They Are Saying
- Former U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated Milei and said the libertarian would make Argentina great again.
- Leftist Colombian President Gustavo Petro, meanwhile, said it was a “sad day” for the region.
Bitcoin Comment
Milei is pro-US dollar with plans to adopt the dollar and end Argentina’s central bank.
Bitcoin is horribly volatile and would quickly make a genuine mess of everything. But let’s not go nuts the other way either. For example …
Q: Was dollarization the reason Milei won?
A: No, don’t be silly.
It was a promise capitalism and free market reforms, not the dollar, that decided the election.
Dollarization will be hard. And unless that’s doable by decree, he may not even be able to get the legislature to do that.
Position on Israel
Silliest Tweet on Argentina
“Argentina was created for our amusement.”
Then Again
He is definitely an outsider to the Peronist regimes is he not? What exactly is the “Deep State” in Argentina if not Peronist?
Would the ouster of Putin by someone pro-West be “Deep State” as well?
Apparently so to those who cannot escape their own anti-US thought bubble.
Asking Again “Deep State”?
“Socialism is always and everywhere a violent, murderous, and impoverishing phenomenon.”
Is that “Deep State”?
Deep State Strike Three
This is about as anti-deep state as it gets. Please click on Liam McCollum’s lengthy “show more” Tweet above.
Then play the video.
Thanks for your Tweet Liam.
Parody of the Day
That may be parody, but how far from the truth is it?
Radical Libertarian?
I do have one objection to the portrayal of Milei as a radical Libertarian:
Milei has criticized China and Brazil, saying he won’t deal with “communists,” and favors stronger U.S. ties.
Reflect on that for a minute to see if you can find what’s fundamentally wrong with it from a Libertarian point of view. First let’s discuss exports.
Argentina’s Exports
The Top Exports of Argentina are Corn ($8.88B), Soybean Meal ($8.63B), Soybean Oil ($6.17B), Delivery Trucks ($3.89B), and Wheat ($2.71B), exporting mostly to Brazil ($11.2B), China ($5.93B), United States ($4.55B), India ($4.19B), and Chile ($3.93B).
Argentina will have a damn hard time avoiding China on corn, soybeans, and wheat. The fundamental problem is elsewhere, however.
Trade is Between Individuals, Not Nations
Argentina does not trade with China. Nor does the US. Individuals do.
And sanctions against nations not only don’t work, they impact innocent civilians in the sanctioned countries.
I discussed trade between individuals in What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?
Trade is Between Individuals, Not Nations
Aggregate reporting of trade deficits such as the persistent US deficit with China, makes it appear otherwise. But the deficit is really a result of a sum of individual transactions.
For example, you or I go to a store and buy a tool at Home Depot. More likely than not, it’s made in China. A Toyota may be assembled in the US or Mexico with parts from Japan, China, or Mexico.
Taking a step back, the intermediate buyer, say Home Depot, makes big orders with various Chinese manufacturers.
The same applies to a Brazilian Store Owner (BSO) dealing with China.
To place its order with a Chinese merchant, the BSO would need to convert Brazilian currency to Bricks, place an order with a Chinese Manufacture willing to accept Bricks, then the Bank of China would swap Yuan for the Bricks and then what?
Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar
I frequently hear talk of a Gold Backed BRIC Currency, but there are never any details for obvious reasons.
If Russia or China had a gold-backed BRIC, what would that even mean? Would you trust it? Buy it?
Or would you just buy gold if you wanted to hold gold?
Hail freedom damn it!
That’s a great message. Congratulations and best wishes to Javier Milei and Argentina.
3 months or less, he will be on a plane to Israel with a suitcase full USA greenbacks…my bet….
When I read this then I think of the saying: “Capitalism is Socialism for the rich”.
How soon will the “libertarian” announce aid to Israel and Ukraine?
Milei will change things. Some people will gain, others will lose . Expect a loud hue and cry from the parasites.
Nothing will change unless Argentina is forgiven of its debts. That would set a huge precedent for any country’s relationship with the world via IMF and World Bank.
“Nothing will change unless Argentina is forgiven of its debts.”
They can, and should, simply not pay.
Whomever Peronist’s signature happens to be on the loan papers in question, just about may have some “obligation” to repay the debt that THEY took on.
The young Argentinians who voted for Milei, sure has heck has exactly no such obligation at all.
Ditto the US; if enough of its hapless indoctrinati should somehow wake and grow up sufficiently, to support someone with the brains to spell Rothbard.
But yeah. It IS Argentina. And as everyone knows, Argentina is argentinian for “basket case.” So I suppose one shouldn’t set ones hopes too high…
Good luck to Argentina. Beautiful country, I visited about 4 years ago. This guy seems like a swivel-eyed loon though.
This is just another event in the disintegrative trend human civilization has been on since it stopped having periodic debt jubilees with the Roman empire. When you set up obsessive and unresolvable dualisms like liberalism vs libertarianism YOU SET UP FRUSTRATION AND EVENTUAL CHAOS. Thats why you need to find an APPLIED concept that will resolve that dualism into A THIRDNESS GREATER ONENESS ALSO KNOWN AS A TRINITY/SYNTHESIS. Consult chemistry, Hegel, NATURAL philosophy and my book Wisdomics-Gracenomics.
Debt jubilee as you call it is a way of punishing the prudent to reward the deadbeats, i.e. reward behaviour free of responsibility. It has been happening lately a lot, so will you finally stop peddling that BS?
You miss that the present MONOPOLISTIC monetary paradigm for the creation and distribution of new money, namely Debt ONLY, is historically an inevitably de-stabilizing and overwhelming factor in economics. Please drop your present orthodoxies long enough to look at what effectively integrating a new paradigm concept, i.e. Monetary Gifting, into the Debt ONLY based system still enables private finance to exist and even thrive…but does not allow them to dominate…which is an important thing…if you ‘re human and hence live in a universe where ethics are important and necessary.
The prudent don’t lend to inevitable deadbeats. (Garet Garrett, A Bubble that Broke the World, 1932.)
As a libertarian (little l) thinker … this is exciting and nerve wracking. I hope that he can achieve something and not be tied down by established gov’t forces. If he DOES achieve, there will be riots in the streets because people who have achieved learned dependency are not going to be too keen on being responsible for their own provision going forward (like here in the US). Could be an interestng time.
In the early 1990s Argentina tied its currency to the USD. As a result of that interest rates in Argentina came crashing down to earth.It allowed the argentinian governments (plural) to take on more and more debt. This was fine as long as the exchange rate of the EUR / USD rose and the argentinian economy benefited. But in the 2nd half of the 1990s the EUR / USD started to go higher and it suffocated the argentinian economy. The logical outcome was the bankruptcy in 2001.
In other words: I consider the policies of Meili to be nothing but “re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic”.
1) Trump was a socialist. In 2020 the Fed raided banks account and transferred cash
to shingle mums, the poor and the elderly, small business owners, ppp loans,
rent and student loans deferrals…
2) The raids were repeated in a system control with a positive feedback loop.
3) China silk road VIP countries are : Pakistan, Egypt, Venezuela, Argentina…
4) Argentina’s new gov will squeeze the US for money imitating Pakistan and Egypt…
They need a Lee Kuan Yew. They elected an ideological Trump. The ocean of most souls would scarcely get your feet wet. I give it a couple years, if that.
Trump was not a Libertarian. I don’t have TDS and I think Trump did some good things, but he is not a Libertarian by any definition of the word.
I didn’t say Trump was. He doesn’t seem to have any consistent ideology. Milei, on the other hand has Trump’s brashness and use of slogans instead of reasoned analysis but pushes libertarian ideology.
Milei a Lee Kuan Yew? LOL.
Before we get all excited or all alarmed perhaps we should look at what he can do in short, medium and long term. First of all one half of the lower house was up for election and one third of the upper house so what he can do or can’t do will depend on if he has the legislative support to do. To stir the stew, we have to take into account that Argentina has a federal system like the US with each province having its own legislature, governors and laws. There is a definite possibility that Milei will have the same problem Trump had. I am sure there is an Argentinian swamp that will seek to stymie him at every turn. Milei looks to be more driven and ruthless than Trump was so maybe he can turn the country around. The first order of the day would be to eliminate government ministries that serve no purpose in his mind. That should come very soon.
I’ve always despised folks who pull against anyone or any country succeeding. I despised Trump but for the sake of América I hoped he actually would do what he said and succeed. He failed spectacularly. Same with the folks who criticise and despise Biden and Dems. I disagree with stuff like I did Trump but I want our country and especially working class people to thrive.
We now have what I predicted would never happen and have an elected Libertarian. I hope he succeeds and Argentina thrives. I’ve always said a Libertarian is nothing more than a Republican who wants to smoke dope and get laid with no gov’t interference. In other words they represent the Oligarchs just like the Republicans do. It will be a spectacular experiment and who knows maybe it will work.
Is Milei anti-abortion? If so, I wonder about the getting laid part.
We don’t have many true Libertarians in US. Most who call themselves that support Republicans and their socialism for the wealthy ideology.
On abortion I think even most Republicans were surprised and shocked over SC decision which took away one of their 2 cash cows and whipping boy issues. Take away immigration and the Republicans have nothing. There are so few real Libertarians that they don’t count. IMO
You conflate Libertarians with libertines.
Argentinians were so desperate for change from the decades long Peronist rule that they elected an insane person. Hopefully Conan (Milei’s dead dog) gives him sound advise!
I hope it does not take 150% inflation for the U.S. to start electing responsible leaders. We are heading for the same environment Argentina finds itself in.
Another MAGA experiment then underway; good for testing economic theories. Milei’s “thinking” sounds strangely enough inspired by the main tenets of the Washington Consensus (minus dollarization, which is a truly bold but unnecessarily cruel experiment for a large country like Argentina).
A TREND ??? Anything Goes now . . .
This is your big chance Mish. Voting for Libertarians is against everyones best interest — thats why we’ll never have a successful libertarian in office, much like why we’ll never have a true communist in office. Hoover was supposed to be able to handle the start of the Depression — everyone just had to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps. If this guy fails, I can’t think of a reason you wouldnt renounce the whole unworkable libertarian thing … or not. 🙂
Great day in the morning. Name a successor, bc he may get assassinated.
Sadly, my immediate thought given how stable Catholic Communist Argentina is. 🔦✝️
Let’s wait and see if this guy actually follows through before jumping on the band wagon.
How many times have voters been told one thing only to get the exact opposite?
Talk is cheap.
I do, however, wish the guy and the Argentinian people good luck. This could very well be a turning point for the better for Argentina. Time will tell.
I think this is great news! If he is pro-libertarian, he will trade with all nations. Politicians always say things to get votes. His opponent probably embraced the BRICS, so he does the opposite. Clearly the US is no paragon of free market capitalism. It’s more an empire that exports war, wokeness and dysfunction.
Unfortunately, he and Argentina face tough challenges as the world economy slides into recession.
Mish’s characterization as Jackson Hinkley as anti-US is way off the mark. He is pro US but anti-crony capitalism and anti-neocon. Will Javier embrace the true Western idea of a multipolar world where each nation respects the culture and society of other nations without placing value judgements on them. Or will he embrace neoconservatism which tries to impose its values and social structures by economic pressure or by war if necessary. We shall see.
“If he is pro-libertarian, he will trade with all nations.” Rubbish. Libertarianism isn’t a religion that requires adherents to trade with people who want to destroy them.
Who wants to destroy them, the IMF, Paul Sangler? Or are you one of those neocons who sees and enemy behind every rock?
Would I trust a BRICS currency? No, but I also never thought that I would live to see widespread questioning and denial of people’s gender either.
That he doesn’t like China and won’t deal with communists doesn’t mean he will stop traders buying and selling with China. It just means that individuals can do what they want but the government itself will have the least amount of dealings possible with no state visits, no cleaning of San Francisco streets for Xi, no government sponsored friendship groups etc.
And congrats to him as it is hard to make Argentina any worse and this major change might do wonders. How will the Deep State react if he pulls off an economic miracle, especially if others see what is possible with freedom.
I’ve been watching this election predicting to my followers that he would win. The cure for too much liberalism is too much liberalism. Argentina just became investable again IMO. This guy needs to develop a security apparatus. Liberals (especially RINOs) are big on assassination.
Hopefully he will be able to direct the army to capture the Palacio del Congreso and dissolve the parliament. Then he could simplify governmental processes, like the ones that have the US government tied up in knots.
.
Latin America hasn’t had a military coup for well over a decade, not counting the parliamentary coup in Bolivia. In the present state, any dusted experiment can only be an improvement, South and North.