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Construction Spending Flat, Private Construction Negative

The Census Bureau’s Construction Spending Report provides further evidence that first-quarter GDP is off to a very rocky start.

Key Points

  • Total construction spending was flat but the Econoday consensus was for a 0.3% gain.
  • As a small consolation, December was upped 0.1 percentage points.
  • Private construction spending fell 0.5% with nonresidential spending down a whopping 1.5%.
  • Public construction spending, the smallest component, rose 1.8%

Total Construction

Construction spending during January 2018 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,262.8 billion, nearly the same as the revised December estimate of $1,262.7 billion. The January figure is 3.2 percent above the January 2017 estimate of $1,223.5 billion.

Private Construction

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $962.7 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised December estimate of $967.9 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $523.2 billion in January, 0.3 percent above the revised December estimate of $521.8 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $439.6 billion in January, 1.5 percent below the revised December estimate of $446.2 billion.

Public Construction

In January, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $300.1 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised December estimate of $294.8 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $76.7 billion, 2.1 percent above the revised December estimate of $75.2 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $92.6 billion, 4.4 percent above the revised December estimate of $88.8 billion.

Awful Year-Over-Year Numbers

  • Manufacturing: -9.7%
  • Power: -8.7%
  • Multi-Family: -3.4%
  • Non-Residential: -1.1%

Construction spending is one of the most heavily revised reports but if these numbers stick, it’s further indication of a very weak first quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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ahengshp58
ahengshp58
8 years ago
ahengshp58
ahengshp58
8 years ago

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Rayner-Hilles
Rayner-Hilles
8 years ago

“Doesn’t mean you are some sort of evil person… Anymore than a leech, as in the worm, is some sort of evil for doing what it evolved and was born to do.”
Oh God, This ^ Yes! Easily the funniest thing I have heard this year.

One quibbling point though: once you remove all of the countless institutions that interfere in the property market, indeed it’s probably the most intervened market of them all, second perhaps to the markets in weapons and dangerous chemicals, you still nevertheless have the centuries old question of land.

Specifically where land is scarce: cities. You can build vertically, sure, but it doesn’t come close to compensating for the inability to build horizontally. You may counter by saying that in this day and age of mass transit and mass communication, nobody needs to locate their businesses, and subsequently their homes as well, in high-density landscapes. That’s certainly true, and we are going to see the effects of that redundancy unfold in a big way with the unraveling of automation and the gig economy.

But I don’t think it’s true in every case, or 100% applicable, principally because of the irrational side of human nature. People are willing to pay a premium to locate in, or in anycase seek ownership of, famous names; famous cities, even if that infamy is relatively local. I have so far tended to think of rent seeking in terms of investors exploiting returns on “Lands and Brands,” but thinking it over now, Land, where it has no intrinsic worth in potential to extract natural resources, is itself becoming just another kind of Brand.

The rent seeking of the future might very well be the art of being able to charge premiums on branding; that is exploiting irrationality in human beings. And because the main schools of economic thinking and their respective models, don’t acknowledge the existence of irrational desires in human beings, nor the inability of the market to supply another “Apple Inc,” they won’t acknowledge brands as rent seeking; they’ll say branding is an intangible form of “quality” that the market theoretically could supply. Homo economicus is a quality-seeking animal: not a fashion-seeking animal.

Well in any case, if you want to be a sophisticated worm, buy property in coastal towns with a budding tourism industry. Coastal towns are, doubly, triply, quadruply reverse-landlocked, which means in the event of premium demand for their locale, property is disposed to rise in price very quickly. That premium demand is of course derived from tourism, probably the most reliable industry based on human irrationality; there’s no greater brand in this world than beautiful scenery, and who isn’t attracted to the seaside?

Stuki
Stuki
8 years ago

“Rent seeking” doesn’t strictly refer to collecting rent for a house. It’s an economic term for collecting money unearned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking).

Which is exactly what is happening when zoning, land use, permitting and other de facto restrictions on constructing houses competing with yours, hence driving down rent prices, results in you being able to collect above free market rent. Doesn’t mean you are some sort of evil person. Noone expects you to rent your house for less than you can get for it. Anymore than a leech, as in the worm, is some sort of evil for doing what it evolved and was born to do.

But economically, you are still collecting above free market rent. Hence extracting that delta from others, who are producing it. Hence leeching. Whether you want to or not.

IOW, the fault not with an individual landlord just renting his house out. But rather with a “system,” laws etc. that enables preventing people from freely producing whatever housing there is demand for at above construction prices; until so much housing is produced and available that prices fall to where constructing another square foot would cost more than what you can sell it for. Those laws, restrictions etc. are what enables and institutionalizes rent seeking and leeching that could not exist in a free market.

Rayner-Hilles
Rayner-Hilles
8 years ago

I’d say it’s only rent seeking if you own the house specifically for the purposes of renting it out. It’s doubly worse if the bank bought the house for you with brand new credit because then you’re stealing from everyone via inflation as well.

I’m not saying don’t do it: I’d do it if I had the money and a good buy-to-let deal on hand, just don’t be a hypocrite. Call a spade a spade, and call your rich-dad-poor-dad get-rich-reasonably-fast schemes what they are: rent seeking. It’s not a morally contributive thing to do to society, it’s exploiting-opportunistic parasitism.

[oh in theory supply in housing should increase to meet the extra demand you pump into the market, but of course we all know that’s not how it really works thanks to the finite supply of land in cities as well as government control of planning.]

lol
lol
8 years ago

Lots of neww construction,ALL Gov’t,military base is doubling in size,why?DOD buyin up everything everywhere,shoppin till they droppin

hmk
hmk
8 years ago

I don’t understand the rent seeking reference. I don’t see how landlords can be a contributor to this economic dysfunction
If I rent my house out how does that make me a leech?

Stuki
Stuki
8 years ago

With construction being banned, or heavily restricted, where well paying jobs are and people want to live; solely in order to keep idle, rent seeking, useless leeches flush by government fiat; ain’t it weird that it isn’t growing much?

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