Continued claims hit a new high since November 2021.
Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending August 16.
Initial Claims
- In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 221,750.
Continued Claims
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 9 was 1,972,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000.
- The previous week’s level was revised down by 11,000 from 1,953,000 to 1,942,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,954,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,750 from 1,950,750 to 1,948,000.
Initial Claims and 4-Week Average
Initial unemployment claims are somewhat above the middle of a 200K to 250K range where things have been for over three years.
However, continued claims keep rising.
This is an indication that it’s much harder to find a job once you lose one.
Continued claims bottomed in mid 2022 at 1,349,000 and are now 1,972,000.
Continued Claims, 15+ and 27+ weeks Unemployed
The huge problem with looking at continued claims alone is people expire benefits.
They are unemployed but uncounted in continued claims.
Most states offer 26 weeks unemployment, with some less. To adjust for the loss in benefits, one needs to factor in long-term employment over 26 weeks.
The monthly average of continued claims plus 27+ week unemployment is 3,778,000 through July. That’s up from a low of 2,513,000 in September of 2022.
And 3.8 million is understated because not all states offer 26 weeks. Also job-hopping reduces benefits.
So look beyond the stable (for now) initial claims to see what’s really happening.
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The labor market is much weaker than most economists realize.
When the downturn comes, I expect it to be catastrophic because the debt loads now in America are so high. When things go south, debt service leads to insolvencies, bankruptcies, company failures, bank failures because people can’t pay their bills because of unemployment.
So far in 2025, approximately 10 million (out of approximately 160 million) people have been laid off in the United States. An extremely small number of approximately 290,000 of those people were possibly from DOGE cuts if you will.
So an extremely small amount of the working people in America were laid off with benefits. They will look for new jobs, and many are coming, so I wish them ALL well. There are also a number of jobs available today, if there is one that’s a fit.
There are ~0 cuts from DOGE
They collect benefits through the end of September and are not counted as unemployed
I was unaware of this. So do they become part of the unemployed, and therefore have benefits coming when October comes? Curious if they will be in the final 2025 number?
By my understanding, no, the Federal employees that took the deferred resignation will not be eligible for unemployment benefits. Generally speaking, unemployment benefits are paid to employees who become “unemployed through no fault of your own”. These folks voluntarily chose to take part in the deferred resignation program. Had they not taken it and got laid off instead then, yes, they would be eligible for unemployment benefits.
TY, and that’s good to hear for Taxpayers. If nothing else, the window to “Taxpayer Fraud” has been opened up widely. This is good for America and it’s Citizens!
OT
Mish,
Do you have any opinion on the Mini Nuclear Reactor companies? They are the only renewable resource energy providers that the Trump administration endorses and a few look like they might get some sales.
As always I appreciate your perspective ~ especially the we disagree!
Enjoy!
My only opinion is unspecific: We need more nuclear
We’ve seen 3 horrifying accidents and all were melt-downs. Fukushima is uninhabitable now. The same with Chernobyl in Ukraine…3 Mile Island…nobody ever left….I do not know how radioactive it is. They released radioactive water and radioactive steam from that plant. Nuclear, when thing go wrong, caused catastrophic damage. In time we’ll see other accidents in other countries. There have been other accidents that were less catastrophic. Too much risk for me. Blanket statements such as “We need more nuclear” is vague. We need more safe nuclear. They’re working on it.
Safety can be learned through experience. Autos and airplanes crash much less often now than they did in the first 50 years of autos and airplanes. Nuclear can be improved and in all 3 cases you cited human failures (operation or siting) were responsible, not the technology itself.
Also, some amount of risk and danger is inherent in any energy production system. Burning coal has actually caused more radioactivity to be released into the environment than nuclear (there are radioactive and toxic materials as impurities in the coal and they go out in the ash). Windmills kill birds. Solar panel production has a lot of toxic waste by-products. There is no utopia.
I have an opinion on SMRs. They will not be cost competitive with renewables or natural gas. They are not the solution to our ever growing demand for electricity. Companies that produce them may be successful if governments subsidize them enough. Expect a lot of “under the table” deals that will make some politicians rich and taxpayers poorer. Which is the only way that they will be a factor in more US power production.
Looking back historically the level isn’t all that high, in fact looking at a FRED chart back to 1967 you’d be hard-pressed to say the level was elevated BUT the direction and trend matters. Seems prior to recessions or downturns the uptrend of the continuing claims mattered more than magnitude. Hasn’t been trending higher or sloping steeply enough yet to indictate that’s where it’s headed though IMO. I am finding myself agreeing with a comment from Michael Engel, the world is funny that way. I don’t see anything disturbing…yet…but the band may be warming up. We’re still chugging through massive inflation, pulling forward many years worth and it hasn’t been pretty doing so for the last 4 years. We need a meaningful retreat in home and other prices OR more time to pass or some combination.
What’re the odds we get an actual word-for-word “let them eat cake” moment before things get ugly?
Megayachts seem like pretty satisfying and easy targets.
Pretty high!
Hence the militarization of our cities. That is not for show, military presence always portends intent.
Prime reason for my big “Sell” days on Monday and Tuesday and going to a higher percentage of cash and mining stocks.
Anyone have an opinion on the mini-nuclear power generator companies? SMR has approval from the NRC but minimal revenue and none deployed in the US,
no clue on that sector. been lightening up with trailing stops past few days…….tariff affect will be delayed due to big boxes loading up on goods early………..trump depression will be huge. make enemies with the world including immigrants here is a recipe for a staglationary depression. i witnessed the ussr implosion of 90s. and also phoenix r/e plunging 70% in 2007 to 2012. russia was an opportunity of a lifetime. imploding empire. phoenix was 2nd best. i smell the future being similar here. nationwide. TX and FL are gonna take it on the chin it seems first.
Too bad any vet can tell you that parking armored vehicles in traffic is “not the best idea”. This is such a stupid chain of events.
The labor force is growing. The econ is ok. Initial claims are in a trading range. The 27+ is in the lower 1/3 range. The ratio: 27+unemployed/ labor force is falling.
“The labor force is growing”. Is it? Lots of deportations of skilled, semi-skilled or unskilled workers going on, as well as a majority of, but not all boomers are retiring.
The increase in long term separations is a bit concerning to me economically.
Where I live labor is about balanced at this point. Sub-contractors are no longer slammed and you can get work completed again within a reasonable timeframe.
In cities where major construction sites used migrant labor, things are sucking mud with the depletion/deportation of construction workers.
The Jobs AI Is Replacing the FastestAround 92 million jobs are projected to disappear by 2030.
https://gizmodo.com/the-jobs-ai-is-replacing-the-fastest-2000645918
The article is bogus. It uses a clickbait headline about 92 million lost jobs by 2023 but in the article, states that 170 NEW jobs are expected to be created to replace those 92 million.
IMO, job losses are going to far exceed job creations moving forward, year over year.
People need to start paying attention to the labor participation rate again. It is currently at 62.2% but looks to be heading downward.
Well, these unemployment claims are going to have to keep increasing over time, or the Fed will never keep inflation in check (or below the level it desires).
4.2% unemployment rate is still historically well below the 50-year average: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE. If these people claiming unemployment benefits can’t find a job under these conditions, it’s only going to get worse for them.
So the Fed is trying to get some laid off (to squelch some inflation pressures), but at a slow rate to avoid a deep recession. So far, as Mish showed, this initial claims rate has been at the same level for 3.5 years.
And the (opposite side of the same coin) inflation rate has been maintained/slightly decreased in the past two years. Soft-landing so far?
If the Fed really wants that inflation rate to go down more, more people will have to lose their jobs or the rest of us start spending less
But how can this be? I was told by “knowledgeable” MAGA (clowns) that once millions of illegals were deported, there would be a golden age of job growth. By some counts, billions of people have been deported by ICE Barbie so what gives?
I was also told tariffs would usher in a golden age and we would get rid of income taxes?
And millions of boomers continue to retire or expire so this should be creating yuge job vacancies and job opportunities?
Something doesn’t seem right, so many contradictions here. Well at least the price of food and electricity is coming down right? Who needs those ugly windmills and solar power? /s
https://www.observerlocalnews.com/news/2025/aug/21/fpl-groups-hammer-out-settlement-proposal-that-would-raise-electric-rates-over-the-next-four-years/
The Magats are still joyful, to the point of speaking in tongues and handling snakes, and here’s why:
“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”― Lyndon B. Johnson
correct.
Lyndon drafted whites. I was there and saw this, white guys gave more than their wealth for LBJ’s war. In those days you rarely ran into a black guy in the army, despite the ravings of the left.
“The Vietnam War saw the highest proportion of African-American soldiers in the US military up to that point. Though comprising 11% of the US population in 1967, African Americans were 16.3% of all draftees.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_African_Americans_in_the_Vietnam_War#:~:text=The%20Vietnam%20War%20saw%20the,were%2016.3%25%20of%20all%20draftees.
Interestingly I see quite a few Boomers continuing to work well after retirement age as a way to remain healthy and vital members of society. They are great mentors to the new employees as they share their immense experience. They also can contribute to their retirement longer and since the healthy ones tend to live a long time, they may need the extra resources.
The entire notion of “retirement” is more appropriate for those that wear themselves out doing menial labor or repetitive tasks and really do not live full lives. Many of them just get fat and die sitting in front of a TV within a few years.
Sitting on your ass all day is the most dangerous thing you can do. I ride my Peloton often while writing these little missives…
>
“Boomers continuing to work….They are great mentors to the new employees as they share their immense experience.”
Lol! That’s the funniest thing I’ve read all year.
In the 90s I had a business dragging boomers kicking and screaming into the computer age. A very few of them saw the value and jumped on it, but most of them were very resentful.
I would imagine it’s the former group that’s still working, as the latter weren’t useful to anyone after 2000.
Thats funny! I have a late 60’s boomer consultant that was an F-15 pilot and Top Gun instructor. The guy can turn his hand to anything! He is amazing! An absolute wealth of knowledge and he does not need to access a “Device to answer a question”. I love hiring people with more experience and expertise than I have.
Another thing I have learned is to honor unique skill sets. It usually indicates an ability to learn other complex skills. Encouraging excellence is a skill.
Another business I tried to support was a group of four young guys that were starting a landscaping business. One of them sat on his computer most of the day finding line items to bill for and accomplished almost no work. They lasted a few days and were terminated because their productivity was incredibly low.
When I was in medicine the need for computer skills was imperative and communication skills for the accurate transfer of information was critical. The older nurses were fantastic mentors for the most part. Of course there were the slackers in every population.
My point is that boomers are not always retiring and this makes jobs a little harder to get for todays less or inexperienced workers.
The flip side is older workers that are not motivated and fat, they suck!
My guess is we work with quite different populations of boomers.
The boomers I know had to compete for jobs because there were so many of them and in the 70’s and 80’s jobs were scarce and inflation was over 10%. They had it a lot tougher than the pampered kids coming out of school for the last 20 years.
Buying a home for boomers with mtg interest rates from 9 to 15% for nearly a decade was something none of us would understand today. I do not know how they did it when they were forming their homes. But they did!
Every generation has about 20% slugs and parasites. Todays “Computer generation” can not even change a tire much less build a home or repair most anything. They can fly a drone, but not shoot a gun straight. Which is a more important skill in todays warfare? The drone pilot ~ until it comes to home defense.
Experience is good teacher and I have many indispensable 60 plus year old employees that qualify as baby boomers. None of them are fat desk jockeys like the 30 something fatso’s that often apply and are rejected because they have no problem solving skills, self determination, hunger for learning or the capacity to do real work.
Our experience is clearly different because I rarely find boomers that do not know how to use a computer.
That’s because the ones that couldn’t got pushed out of the workforce.
Very early the boomers did not like keyboards because they reminded of secretarial work which was at the pow end of the totem pole.
Now everybody has basic phone and keyboard skills. Even Boomers!
The WWII generation was worse at computers but broadly physically skilled…
Times change!
generational resentment is as old as time. the ancient greeks complained about the younger generations, too.
i do agree with you everyone is different. i’m old and have been attending college for over 45 years just for fun and to learn. i take all types of courses from astronomy to ceramics……….to keep learning. the young adults at schools are wonderful. i’ve attended ivy leagues to stanford to cal berkeley to phoenix CC and many more. those old US military pilots carry lots of bad baggage. killing innocent babies from the sky is not good for one’s soul. i’ve known many, from ww2 to nam to iraq pilots. bad stuff.
You are correct. The military is bad for the soul, unless you are psychopathic.
I think there’s maybe a selective psychopathy that makes killing people doable. I hate to hunt, don’t have the heart for it, but I’ll shoot any coyote on sight if the situation allows. The only time I feel a little bad about it is if it isn’t a clean kill.
When I was 12-13 years old, the coyote population got out of hand, and game and fish was offering $10 for a pair of coyote ears, which was like $50 now. Paid a lot better than the food service jobs I could get. I was out there on my dirt bike with dad’s .270 nearly every day that summer, mass murdering the things. I guess you get used to it.
… and now it’s the kids typing with two fingers.
I don’t often disagree with you MPO but I agree with Frosty on this topic. I see no reason for folks to retire if it means no longer using their skills, talents, and abilities to contribute to the country and to a better life for themselves. Whether it’s mentoring or not, I don’t like to see talent go to waste. The wealthiest folks I know, never completely stopped working and facing new challenges. We need to be challenged to live a satisfying life.
Amen!
Sorry, this is nonsense. Boomers are working because they are forced to because they didn’t save enough for retirement. Who wants to work at 70? There are honest boomers, but most can’t face the truth if they claim they are mentors or whatever.
More liquidation of bureaucrats to follow?
The one thing LLMs are extremely good at is spewing plausible sounding bullshit, which makes bureaucrats and CEOs prime candidates for replacemnt by LLMs.
Less Bureaucrats! More fat people living authentic lives with no jobs and surviving on the streets for a while! What could go wrong?