The lead image is from Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak.
Researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimate that the number of cases may be five or ten times higher than what has been reported. Thousands of suspected cases are yet to be confirmed with tests, and others with the virus may not have sought medical attention.
A second global map shows 7 infections in the US, but moments ago there was an 8th confirmed US case.
The latest is in Massachusetts. Previously confirmed cases are from California (3), Illinois (2), Arizona and Washington.
As of Saturday, the flu-like virus had killed at least 259 people, all of them in China.
Economic Disruption
Via NBC News
Spring Festival holiday extended in Hubei province: The Spring Festival holiday has been extended until Feb. 13, officials in the Hubei province have said in a statement. The city of Wuhan — the epicenter of the disease — sits in the region. This was to prevent the spread of the virus, the statement said, adding that schools and colleges would remain closed for that time and workers unable to take leave, would be compensated under Chinese labor laws.
Apple closes all offices, stores and contact centers in mainland China: The tech giant said Saturday it will be closing all of its offices, stores and contact centers in mainland China “out of an abundance of caution and based on the latest advice from leading health experts.” The measure will be in force until Feb. 9, the company said, adding that it “looked forward” to reopening its stores as soon as possible.
Flight attendants demand flights to China are halted: The Association of Flight Attendants, representing 50,000 flight attendants at 20 airlines has called for “clear direction from our government to U.S. airlines to pull down all travel to China until the spread of coronavirus is contained,” in a statement.
The “holiday” extension is really a lockdown measure telling people to stay put.
Supply chain disruptions are mounting as people are not going to work. Factories are closed.
Economic Impact Unknown
Jim Bianco Tracks the Spread
Bianco Comments on Spread
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1223602723381284866
Estimating the China Monday Open
I am certain that his comment “Jail Short Sellers” was either sarcasm or his expected Chinese reaction, not his belief as to what should happen.
Question of the Day
Comment of the Day
“If anyone was wondering what a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies looks like, we’re kind of getting a natural experiment.”
CDC Quarantines 195 US Citizens, Prepares for Pandemic
Also consider CDC Quarantines 195 US Citizens, Prepares for Pandemic
“We are preparing as if this is the next pandemic, but we are hoping that is not the case,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center For Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Prophetic
Eleven cases now in the US, including the second case of a spouse catching it from their mate. Also new, the major news services are finally starting to cover the coronavirus story:
Fox – has had a top story on it for a couple days
CNN – I’m unable to view them due to some issue in my browser settings
ABC – Has it on page 1 for the first time
CBS – has a special drop down tab for it on page 1
NBC – has it on page 1
NPR – has no story on the actual virus until well down the page, but mentions the new Wuhan hospital
MSNBC – has very little, but they aren’t a full news service
Yahoo – has a story buried well down the page
On the whole this reflects a significant increase in coverage, and i didn’t see any of the stories which included what they had been saying all last week, something along the line of “well, this is very interesting, but the true danger, of course, is the normal flu, which has killed over 8000 this year, compared to xxx for the coronavirus”.
This news is deserving of a separate post from Mish, but Chris Martensen found a non-peer reviewed article from China that computes that the actual R0 is 4.08, and the actual fatality rate is 6.5%. However, if the time each infected person is out in public spreading the disease is reduced to 2.3 days or less, the R0 drops to under 1, and the disease will die out on it’s own. That explains why China has gone into a complete lockdown. Even if we don’t believe the numbers could be that high, the Chinese obviously do.
More good news today. The recovery rate now exceeds the death rate, but that’s just the tip of the good news. If you look at data from all places other than the Wuhan area, deaths are only 11, and the number recovered is 176. It would appear that initial deaths were very high because of the insufficiency of medical care. We may see the growth in the number deaths decline rapidly, now that the first additional 1000 bed hospital is open, and even more when the second one comes online later this week.
Just to remind people Apple shut down China.
Foxconn is most likely going to shut down.
The iPhone is 2.65% of the NASDAQ. One product by itself.
still waiting for the 100,000 infected as “predicted” in the next 2 days…. zzzzz
RESEARCH MADE ON SURVIVAL OF SARS_CORONA VIRUS ON A SUPPORT OUTSIDE THE PATIENT;
Is it safe to keep receiving fast delivered packages from China? It depends upon the delivery delay, temperature , hygrometry and last but not least the eventual measures of disinfection taken by the shipping organisation.
This a link to a scientific study which point out the outstanding life duration of some SARS-CORONA virus outside of a patient. Some research showed up to 28 days of partial survival depending on temperature and hygrometry exposures.
Just for reference, the first nCoV patient in the US in Everett, WA now just has a cough after going through a battery of symptoms and quarantine. It seems like there a decent protocol to help patients survive this but it does require hospitalization.
You just said the problem.
Requires.
Numbers say the amount of hospitals beds won’t be sufficient. Don’t get sick during the peak.
You mean, because the statistically relevant sample, of similarly infected patients in Everett who weren’t hospitalized, all died?
The Simpsons, Season 4, Episode 21. China is still shipping Juice Looseners contaminated with virus.
Official deaths on the John Hopkins site are now 304, with none outside of China. Nevertheless, there was indeed a death in Malaysia a few days ago:
Good news in today’s report is that deaths did not grow as fast as infections. If you guesstimate that the actual death rate is (today’s reported deaths)/(infections five days ago), the death rate estimate dropped under 10% today, to 7%.
More good news is that the number of people who have recovered now exceeds they number who are deceased, for the first time since the pandemic started.
In a slightly less optimistic case, let’s say it does kill quickly if it is going to be life threatening but not that quickly, on average 7 days after officially becoming infected. That means all those 303 dead in China today were infected at least 7 days ago. 7 days ago in China, the number of infected was 2,700. That is a mortality rate of 303/2700 = 11.2%. Take a less optimistic case where 2019-nCoV kills on average 10 days after officially becoming infected. 10 days ago in China, the number of infected was 639. That is a mortality rate of 303/639 = 47.4%!!!
Before anyone screams in panic about these numbers, I think the actual number of people infected must be much, much higher than officially reported. I am guessing anyone not verified positive in a hospital is not included in the total. Hopefully (with regard to the mortality rate), there are at least an order of magnitude more people sick. In that case, the respective mortality rates would be 1.1% and 4.7% for the examples above. That would also mean China has about 143,000 infected people as of today.
China must have at least a reasonable approximation of these statistics by now. Since they do not appear to be reporting it publicly, I hope they are sharing that information with other public health leaders.
I completely agree with all your points. Using your 7 day number, there is one death outside of China. 7 days ago there were 40 reported cases outside of China, and those would include everyone with any symptoms that had been tested, and not just people who had been hospitalized. That would imply a 2.5% death rate.
The bad part is the 2019-nCoV either has a much higher mortality rate than people are hoping for, a much higher R0 than people are hoping for, or some moderately bad combination of both. If China has about 150,000 infected now, then I estimate the R0 is around 4.5 (assuming their infections started about 2 months ago and that each person is infectious for about 7 days before they either go to the hospital or self-quarantine). From what I understand, unless all major population centers take drastic measures like China has been taking, almost everybody is going to get this thing if the R0 is 4.5.
Great points, and all true. In China the reported cases initially grew at 50% a day, doubling every other day, but more recently is has slowed to 20-25% a day. That could be the result of some combination of:
The most troubling thing I have seen is that, in new countries that are taking this seriously from day 1, it seems to be threatening to jump to 50% a day.
The last three days in Japan have been 11, 17, 20
In Singapore they are 10, 16, 18
In S. Korea they are 6, 11, 15
Thailand has been 14, 19, 19
I’m watching these four closely to see if they can contain it, or if it breaks into the wild and starts growing at rapidly.
The first guy in Germany that got it got over it in 2 days and didn’t feel too bad with it. I’m also noticing that his recovery does not seem to be on the statistics websites for some reason, even though he’s recovered quite some time now. Also, the other people are stable there. There could be thousands getting this and getting over it with very mild or next to no symptoms. Same has happened with a couple of children I have read about. We are not seeing these statistics.
I was in San Francisco when the AIDs epidemic broke out in the early 80’s. While little was known about the disease ( and despite the best efforts of the gay community to imply everyone was at risk) it was soon clear it wasn’t an airborne disease infecting anyone. 200 plus per month were soon dying ( in a city of 750,000) so but they didn’t drop dead in days! China is in deep trouble. You can’t look down megalopolises for more than a week or two before supplies run out. At some point there is going to be a massive bankrun as people without incomes have to withdraw whatever cash they have. I doubt the regime will survive the coming shocks.
As of this morning 143 people outside of China were reported infected. From the cases outside of China, we should at least start getting some more realistic mortality rate numbers. They will still be skewed to the high side for the reasons NY Geezer mentioned but at least we can get a better guess as to whether this is going to be closer to the Spanish flu or the common flu in terms of death rates. The more this progresses, the more refined that number will become and the more intelligently we can all respond. In the meantime, better safe than sorry.
Go to youtube and watch the newest video by adapt2030 on this topic if you want your hair to fall out. You might need to fast forward a few minutes to get past his past era technology theory which is pretty off topic compared to the rest of the video. Pretty riveting.
I am pessimistic. Health care relating to this new corona virus is free in China. Although we are alarmed at the number of cases in China, the authorities there may be minimizing the virus’ spread.
The US has a health care system that many people are afraid to use for fear of being bankrupted by catastrophic medical bills. I doubt that people in the US will rush to their local ERs at the fist sign of a fever or other corona virus symptom. People in the US are much more likely to endure their symptoms at home or at work until they get so sick that they are forced into quarantine. In the interim each person can infect many more persons than their Chinese counterparts, and the US RO could be very high.
A lot of people comment about how screwed up US healthcare is, but that’s a good point about people going to work sick. I’ve been around tons of people who won’t take time off work unless they’re so ill they can’t physically manage the commute. Either they feel loads of pressure to come in or they just want to use all their hours on vacation rather than sick time.
I’ve been commended too much in annual reviews for being lucky enough to be really healthy. I call in maybe once every 3-4 years and my bosses often act like this at least as important as general job performance. It’s not, and our weirdly macho corporate culture is stupid in this regard.
You are on target. An ER in the US will bill a person $10K+ for not doing much. With annual deductibles on many policies $12K or higher, people who have not otherwise been in serious medical trouble will stay away from that option. Also, ERs are already horribly clogged and slow with just the normal caseload of sick people and real emergencies. Let’s see…choose to sit in a crowded waiting room for 6+ hours with other sick people, some of whom will have coronavirus during an outbreak, or tough it out at home unless death looks imminent. I know what I am going to do.
Got the normal flu once at a dental checkup, nasty.
Asked the hygienist about sick leave in their office.
None.
So incentive for workers to come in sick.
I think the US markets don’t care , and the Chinese markets would not care if they can cover up best as possible . Monday – same ole same ole
Not a chance. I am buying more SQQQ Monday. Did very Good Friday already.
Apple shut down China. The iPhone alone is 2.65% of the entire NASDAQ. One product.
I am optimistic about controlling this in the US, but I could be wrong. Thailand is questionable. Japan, don’t know.
Supply chain disruptions are likely to be a disaster.
The one just announced here in Boston doesn’t say how many he was in contact along the way…
The German tourist now isolated in Canary islands caught it in Munich from a friend who caught it from another worker who caught it from visiting family… something like that :-/ .
He caught it around five days ago and flew with it ( i.e. lots of people in airports) , but still has no symptoms at all ( so maybe is not infectious) .
Once they lose track of where the virus is there won’t be much they can do to chase down people who might be contaminated except wait for them to show up with symptoms.
It would be nice if those CDC news releases would give us some actual information like when the person arrived back in the US.
SURVIVAL OF CORONAVIRUS ON A PACKAGE
Up to july this year I used to receive packages (air lifted from China about 10-15 days from factory down here to Europe.)
After carefuly reviewing some researchs made on the Survival of coronavirus in different conditions of temperature and relative humidity, I concluded that the WHO advice that parcels can not transmit the disease are quite optimistic.
So I completely stopped buying from China on the web as the researchers found that the virus deposited on metal, plastic or paper may survive up to 28 days in low to medium température and humidity..
Lots of shortage of information.
One that has me frustrated is disinfection of disposable masks (n95 or similar), I have done a lot of searching. They are sold as not reusable, and there is a very basic (as in minimalistic) suggestion in case of necessity, which involves not transferring contaminants from outside the mask to inside.
However given a mask might remain contagious for several days, it seems obvious a form of disinfection is necessary considering reuse while in short supply would be the norm.
It is suggested that all forms of cleaning might damage the integrity of the mask. Most disposable masks are polypropylene non woven I think, sometimes with proprietary surface treatment (e.g. static).
On straps detergent was observed to be around eq. to bleach…alcohol, dessication of some kind, ozone, uv … what works that least damages masks , preferably readily available ?
I will keep searching, but if anyone has a link to a proper study or info on this, then please inform of it.
UV light would be my guess for the best choice for disinfecting. UVC would be the best choice, but it’s doubtful you have that available. UVC kills all life forms on contact. A tanning bad would emit UV-A and UV-B, which would work.
Thanks, I just wonder if it works in fabric and the effect on the fabric, but I am reading up now on limits to material.
Hospitals steam disinfect ( under pressure at 121 °C ) and use that on polypropylene fabric. The trouble is that it might affect the plastic (recrystalisation cited by one study). SARS was disactivated ” 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively ” so there is space there for simple long steam cleaning somewhere below 100 °C or heated cabinet. Detergent effect on polypropylene fabric will look up….so finally a fuller study
which found vapourised hydrogen peroxide
and uv caused least damage or were most appropriate but
cites a study that UV effectiveness on some materials is questionable.
So, I guess I will look for more info on h2o2.
(Note 3 further studies and advice in following replies)
If you have a feather pillow cleaned, the feathers are sterilized using UVC on them as they tumble. There are also vacuum cleaners that use UVC on the carpet as they clean. Use UVC with caution as it will kill any living cells exposed to it. The problem with using it on a mask, I suppose, is that it would only sterilize the outer surface. If a virus particle was embedded in the fabric, it might not be killed.
So here is UVGI on ffp
and it works, as does steaming for 20 mins. , at least for one disinfect on the masks used. Alcohol is said no go because it ruins static. Detergents degrade filter in previous study. Not sure if you can soak in h2o2 instead of vapour ( which is special equipment). UVGI degrades the strength of the mask though over time
A lot of reading for anyone interested, but the info is there I think.
Finally a study that tests liquid h2o2, that works also. Click the title there for pdf
So choices are :
Carefully removing and redonning.
Hang the mask apart not touching anything for time judged acceptable (in reality days or weeks for full sterilisation, but several hours will also reduce load)
Place on rack in pan with lid and steam for twenty minutes.
UVGI , follow instructions in those links.
Hydrogen peroxide soak. They used 10%, consumer is usually 3%, so adapt times to known susceptibility of virus at 3%.
Possibly a dry heat cabinet at 70°C for several hours – untested.
At a stretch detergent soak or possibly bleach, but it likely will weaken the performance of the mask (see studies).
Don’t scrub the masks or jet them, just soak. Don’t use alcohol or other untested products. If they are visibly damaged then likely they are overall in poor state, preferably discard.
ffp masks can last a long time with care, they store ok for a decade according to study if in reasonable environment. So each to their own judgement on need to disinfect them and how often, and by what method. There are no studies I have read yet on many repeated sterilisations or wearing for long duration, so I suppose anyone will have to go by own observation of the state of the mask. Even a poorer performing mask is generally better than no mask.
Assuming it travels like flu, contagion can be slowed by measures but not controlled. I guess control was not what you meant because it implies having say over, but really the only option is to try to make sure the virus doesn’t have its say so much.
In one Portuguese restaurant workers are obliged to wear masks and gloves from now on because 30% of guests are Chinese. I suppose there are other stories like this (outside of travel industry).
It is wrong that we don’t have proper independent data on the virus yet, we don’t have any way to judge how severe its effects are.
Hope some group is sequencing multiple occurrencies over time to see if it’s morphing over .
I think we will know in the next 7 days. If the numbers double outside China I don’t think it’s containable in the short term. Everyone knows now. The lockdowns are in place. If it can evade that it’s not containable.
The next 7 days will let us know how well nature/man has designed this virus.
Outside the short term everyone will have this thing.
I really want to be wrong. We will call that optimism.
I think it’s ludicrous to think that a virus that went from a handful of people to what is most likely 100,000+ in a month and a half is containable. It’s like imagining the common cold is containable and this appears, right now, to be way more infectious than the common cold. This is why the WHO wasn’t shutting down travel. They know that this will spread across the world. It probably already has, given the long incubation period.
Cases will show up everywhere in a few more days. Doubling every 7 days outside of China, in my opinion, is extremely optimistic. It will double much quicker than that.
The next effect will be a drastic drop in the stock market as people all over the world become hysterical. The irrational exuberance of the market is finished and the irrationality will move in the opposite direction.
From science papers I’m reading on it, and articles, and looking at the stats outside of China, this actually will not be as bad as the panicking people think. It will majorly affect older people and also the infirm. Anyone with a secondary illness will not do well with this. Also, babies under 18 months whose immune system has not fully developed yet. Children right now seem to wear this virus particularly well. Many seeming almost asymptomatic. Working age people are also doing well.
This will not be a good virus for the world, but it certainly won’t be armageddon and I believe the death rate will be far under 1% (although, I’m very much open to change on that dependent on new data).
TimeToTest, btw, don’t mean for that post to sound as if I’m against your post. Your post was very good.
It also apparently hits men about 4x harder than women.
No one, here at least, thinks it can be entirely contained. Rather, my hope is that it can be slowed sufficiently that it doesn’t become a pandemic outside of China prior to the end of flu season, and that a vaccine can be developed by fall.
My worry is very simple.
Proper medical care. This virus might not be that bad with proper medical care but without the death rates will climb significantly.
Little math
My city.
500,000 people in direct area (many more in hospital area)
20% critical rate
100,000 people.
Infection rate averaged over 2 months at 11,600 per week
Local hospital ICU beds 187 total over all hospitals in area.
If you get sick at peak time you are not getting care.
The death rate could be much higher without proper care.
And forget about medicines they find that will work to treat this. They won’t be available for long. Manufacturing can’t ramp that quickly for anything.
Don’t get sick during peak times.
Thanks for the compliment. Your comment was very good also.
I can only dream it kills off 75% of the men on the plant and I am a lucky survivor(I won’t be).
Pleasure island anyone?
A man can dream right?
The highest death rate group would probably be men over 80 with COPD, but I doubt even that group would hit anything remotely close to 75%.
Yeah I forget to put there S/ in there.
I always look off into the future and wonder what’s next.
I think we have passes the golden point for mankind for a little while.
I don’t see anyway pain is not the outcome from this combination of free money, declining birth rates and a mass die off.
The irony is this is exponential growth is always the goal even for a virus.
Yes, post-WWII America was the modern golden age. Unrealistic as hell to expect it to last forever. Time for reversion to the mean, which will look a lot like pre-WWII America.