China’s Conflicting Mission
About 700 million Chinese have not gone to work for weeks. China now want them back on the job.
But China’s effort to Restart the Economy While Fighting Outbreak poses many new questions.
Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s No. 2 official, and the country’s cabinet called for major construction projects to begin across the country as soon as possible. State-owned enterprises were told to cut rents. Banks were ordered to keep interest rates low. City governments were told to make sure that workers who went home for the Lunar New Year holiday could reach their jobs.
The two most powerful political bodies in China — the Standing Committee of the Communist Party Politburo and the government’s cabinet of ministers — each issued similar orders. Both groups produced hints of the fairly broad stimulus program that many economists expect soon.
None of the announcements directly addressed the difficult balancing act that China now faces: how to put more than 700 million workers back on the job without creating conditions that could allow the virus to spread.
Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact
France24 reports Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact on Aviation
Boeing issued a stark warning Wednesday about the impact of the deadly coronavirus outbreak, saying there was “no question” it would hammer the aviation industry and the broader economy.
“You have several global airlines that have limited their traffic in and out of China, that’s revenue,” said Ihssane Mounir, the US plane maker’s senior vice president of commercial global sales and marketing.
“You have business trips not happening, you have cargo not going in and out.
“It will have an impact on the economy, it will have an impact on revenues, it will have an impact on these carriers… there’s no question about it.”
Cancelled Flights
Non-China Infections Update
Biggest Reason for Declining Cases is Change in Definition
Accuracy of Tests in Question
Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing
Chris Martenson reports Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing
Jumping the Gun?
The surest way to spread the disease is to send 700 million potential carries back to work in an effort to jumpstart the economy.
Here are a couple of image clips from the video.
Key Question
The above clip refers to the fact that Japan was unable to test all the people on a quarantined cruise ship.
Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship
The AP reports Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship
Here’s the interesting part: “The virus was confirmed in a official who participated in the initial quarantine checks the night the ship returned to Yokohama Port near Tokyo on Feb. 3. The quarantine official is being treated in the hospital.“
Japan is reconsidering the need to test everyone. Good idea. But if Japan is struggling with testing 3,800 what the heck is going on in China?
The obvious solution is to change the definitions so there are fewer cases.
New Key Questions
- But how long will the ship quarantine now need to be?
- 24 days? Starting when?
- Just how crazy is it to send people back to work with so many similar questions in play?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The CCP has decided that the economy is more important than the death toll from the virus, and maybe that the virus is unstoppable in any case. The obvious choice is to send everybody back to work and sacrifice a few percent of the population for the greater good. Communists in general don’t mind spending a few million lives here and there to achieve their goals.
The Wuhan virus, a cousin of SARS, officially COVID-2019 or 2019-nCoV, is indeed unstoppable. See the below.
Bloomberg News: Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows By John Lauerman February 13, 2020, 5:28 PM GMT+2 Updated on February 13, 2020, 7:23 PM GMT
So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.
There was a huge jump in both reported cases and death reported today. Over 15,000 new cases, compared to under 2,000 yesterday, and 251 deaths, nearly three times the number reported yesterday. Mostly the deaths are coming from Wuhan, which reported 230 in one day.
The reason for the jump is that China is now using lung imaging to diagnose it, rather than just nucleic acid tests. Apparently some of newly diagnosed were diagnosed that way after they had already expired, confirming that some have been dying of it without being diagnosed as having it.
Also in today’s news, two women being quarantined in Russia after returning from China managed to escape. If they turn out to be contagious, they could spread the disease to many, many people before they die. I expect to see more of this, and to be honest, I’ll be surprised if some people who believe they don’t have the cornavirus don’t try to escape the cruise ship.
BNN stated as source this: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml
What it says is that from now on, they will also add “clinically diagnosed” patients to the total. In other words, until now, they were only counting people with lab results (just like everybody else). Now they will count using superficial symptoms, so that people can get medical help even without tests.
Out of the 14,840, there were 13,332 “clinically diagnosed” people. Based on symptoms, they may have the coronavirus, or flu or something else. It’s not lab confirmed.
Results: As of 26 January 2020, a total of 8866 patients including 4021 (45.35%) laboratory confirmed patients were reported from 30 provinces. Nearly half of the patients were aged 50 years or older (47.7%). There was a clear gender difference in incidence with 0.31 (male) vs. 0.27 (female) per 100,000 people (P<0.001). The median incubation period was 4.75 (interquartile range: 3.0-7.2) days. About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively. The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR. The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05)
Guys this thing is bad. It’s worse than they are telling us. Without medical care it’s down right terrible. Get prepared. It’s coming to your town.
There is no valid way to interpret the data, since the death rate in Wuhan is nearly 6x the death rate anywhere else. Is the death rate in Wuhan what the rest of the world will see in time, given that Wuhan has had it for longer? Or, is the death rate in Wuhan indicative of undereporting the mild cases? Or, is the Wuhan death rate indicative of an overwhelmed medical system?
Pretty much what I have been saying the whole time. So far, still zero non-Chinese deaths. The only two deaths outside of mainland China are Chinese who were sick when they were leaving China.
Something odd is going on. I doubt the death rate outside of China will come anywhere close to what is being reported from Wuhan.
From onset of symptoms till death is averaging about 21 days.
That puts infection time about about Jan. 18 including incubation for those that are dying. The death will come. Take this thing serious.
This thing is exponential.
21 days from onset till death. 5 day incubation period.
Give it time.
the bottom has just blown out of the boat of lies…
new confirmed infections today over 14,000
……BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths….
zerohedge is not a legitimate source of information.
Funny how Zero Hedge reports some things before the mainstream media. Funny how the mainstream media suppresses some information Zero Hedge factually reports. The mainstream media is not a legitimate source of information. They promote their agenda and their narrative.
zerohedge is a mix of opinion and Kremlim disinformation. Sorry.
Zero Hedge was not suspended for spreading disinformation.
The mainstream media is propaganda and is thus spreading disinformation. Sorry.
Everybody spreads misinformation, but ZH is full of conspiracy theorists and anti-semites. Generally if people start talking about the hidden hand of some Jewish new world order, its safe to power off.
(And no, I’m not Jewish, but having visited a couple of eerily silent places in Europe, I am closer to understanding the consequences of that line of thinking)
You are referring to some of the posters in comments. That is not Zero Hedge news.
Zero Hedge reported on the OPCW whistleblower scandal over the Douma Syria incident. The mainstream media suppressed the story.
Zero Hedge was correct that there was an explosion in the number of reported cases of Covid-19 in China.
If you don’t believe me twitter has permanently suspended zerohedges account for spreading disinformation. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/
The question I have is if that jump is just the cumulative of since the outbreak or if it is a daily figure. I expect the first but not clearly labelled anywhere yet.
Also the addition of clinical patients is going to be contested the other way by those wary of government figures, because it might be seen as diluting the severity of outcome by adding untested milder cases of pneumonia.
Round and round we go.
I just heard on Bloomberg that there are currently at least 77 clinical trials for treatments.
Latest numbers are that infection can be 24/40 days dormant before the carrier finds out he’s sick…that’s not good, but it gives a benchmark
….looks like I can t post a comment unless I reply to someone else’s….. What are you pathetic doomsayers all on about , I wanted to ask, markets are up all over the place and ‘excited about the post corona virus rebound’ I read somewhere…. Some folks are definitely deluded…BIG question being WHO is …. rrrm… well… right, I guess …lol
Does anybody have a link to the 24-day incubation period research mentioned in the article above?
The US released those first 195 evacuees after 14 days with no signs of sickness and from the sounds of it, they were just screened, not actually tested? Does anyone know if they were tested for sure?
The median incubation period is three days, less than the estimated 5.2 days, according to the research conducted by Dr Zhong and his team, while in rare cases, the incubation period can reach 24 days.
The 24 day was 1 out of about 1100 people–according to the official news agency
The 24 days was also based on the patient’s interpretation… so may or may not be meaningful. The patient may have become infected later than they thought. The doctor warned, “The information in the paper should not be overinterpreted,” Dr Zhong said.
But 1 out of 1100 people or even less could be “superspreaders” meaning no matter how much you protect yourself from infection, you’ll be infected since the superspreader is shedding more viruses than most infected people. One such superspreader infected 60 people in hospital, where I’m sure people are overly cautious and protecting themselves with masks and the like.
In short, we’re all gonna likely get infected by this virus at some point, see also the below.
Bloomberg News: Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows By John Lauerman February 13, 2020, 5:28 PM GMT+2
in Abstract, you can preview the pdf of the study there also.
Could be paranoia talking, but this is beginning to feel like opening salvos in long-promised asymmetric war campaign.
USA has only 1 KN95 (antivirus) mask manufacturer supplying 7%. Rest come from Mexico or China. Masks made in Mexico are slated for China.
All aspirin, Vitamin C, other basics, most antibiotics either made in or need ingredients only available from China.
The virus is from biowarfare labs, whether released intentionally or not who knows, but in any case it’s not a natural phenomenon. Is China, for example, sitting on a known cure and using that as leverage in negotiations? Or is this a practice run to ensure they have good national containment practices and can release it more widespread fashion later once they have worked it out?
In any case the combination of the lock on international medical supplies AND it being a biowarfare product is highly suspect.
Why American citizens pay so much for healthcare and defense industries who have left the country entirely vulnerable to biowarfare attack by 100 civilians arriving on airplanes is beyond me. The US Government is a lazy, criminal, absurd operation which needs to be disbanded ASAP and then start over.
Hmmm, that’s the sort of thing a pandemic is good for, come to think of it..
PS. Meanwhile a President is impeached, his only viable opponent is a globalist billionaire, a pandemic is looming on the horizon and the stock market is providing the best shorting opportunity in a lifetime.
Welcome to the disinformation age. People post theories as facts. No evidence is needed, and people believe it.
The virus has been reported to be spread through spray from sneezing and coughing, contaminated surfaces (both snot and feces), and yesterday, via just the virus hanging in the air.
Surface contamination from corona viruses typically last up to 9 days. Not sure how long it hangs in the air, but the measles virus remains in the air for about 2 hours after the infected person was in the room.
Interesting item from NHK. A health ministry official who went onboard the Diamond Princess to collect questionaires has been infected. He was wearing gloves and facemask but not full body protection. This virus seems to be a lot more infectious than what is realized. Remember the known infections on board are removed for treatment and passengers are confined to their cabins. I assume crew are not allowed to roam at will either and decontamination is being done so nosocomial infection should be difficult but its not!
‘When it becomes serious, you have to lie’.
…
All politicians lie. It is second nature for them. No doubt there has / will be lies on virus. Time will tell if these lies cause more deaths than if a more proactive approach taken … rather than assurance of normalcy soon.
PLA using it’s slave labor populous as guinea pigs to test the latest bioweapon before deployment to the US to covertly destroy the US military.
Good point, I don’t say PLA but the west has enemies, lots of them. So maybe national quarantine would be not effective anyway. When I look at it like this 🙁 .
LMAO you think we dont have crap like that? Oh well, at least the planet wouldn’t be destroyed by bombs.
That ship quarantine just seems insane. Everyday people contract the virus who didn’t have it the day before. The ship is not safe. Everyone needs to be removed to a more sterilized environment.
Yes, that is a big problem.
Ideally, those in quarantine should in isolation from others. Lumping the “good” with the “bad” potentially makes everyone “bad”. But isolation is in no way feasible for any quantity.
What will (and probably already has) happen is people ( asymptomatic, but don’t know it) will fear quarantine and lie low … make spread worse.
You don’t know how they caught the virus, if it was before quarantine.
They are pretty much isolated from each other by most accounts.
They haven’t tested the whole ship or even all the staff. If anyone preparing food or delivering the food has the virus the whole ship will get it. What is happening to that ship is criminal. I am surprised that with thousands of people on that ship there isn’t a mutiny.
We are missing that detail (and others), but it would surprise me if those preparing food or making deliveries have not been screened. If basics like that were overlooked then yes, it would be criminal.
And what sort of ventilation system heating/cooling does each cabin have? That would be another perfect way to spread it to every passenger.
Especially if the air is recycled somehow. You would think they had that covered…. but ?
….The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said….
And this is the real problem that has produced the chaos in China– the 3 to 5% needing intensive care.
For example, Minnesota, a state pretty well served by medicine has a population of about 5 million. If 50% of the people had some form of the virus, that would be 2.5 million people. Of that, 3 to 5% might require quarantined intensive care (75,000 to 125,000 people). Based upon the typical stay of at least 10 days to recover, that would be 750,000 to 1,250,000 patient-days of quarantined care required.
Well, in Minnesota in 2017, there were approximately 500,000 to 600,000 patient-days of care over the year. This was for all cases in all hospitals (non-quarantined for the vast majority).
How does a medical system serve a case-load that would go from 500 thousand to 1.25 million or 1.75 million ? Not very well. And throw in the quarantine requirements. How would that mix with the standard patient population that has the normal cancers, heart problems, broken bones, bullet wounds, etc, etc ?
Chaos is the only possible result.
Don’t forget not all hospital staff would be available as they will also have a % down with the virus.
SCMP (South China Morning Post) reports that 500 medical staff in Wuhan have the virus and 600 more are suspected of having it.
She is implying maybe of 5% less serious or critical cases than China has, i.e. mild cases are slightly larger.
In China official, serious/critical is around 20% . I’m comparing data and guessing pneumonia means serious, she didn’t give source of her statement I imagine. However CFR of closed cases in China is also around 20% , so do her words at up to 15% CFR including undetected mild infections?
I know there is all sorts of bias possible, but you round that down to a third of 15% because whatever, and you are still looking at 5% CFR .
I’m fed up of guessing, but even more fed up of being misled.
And don’t forget to factor in that some medical staff are going to call in “sick” rather than risk exposing themselves.
Last set of comments under Carl_R at
Jimmyscot and I were looking at CFR
There is nothing obvious about any figures we are being given to now.
“Based upon the typical stay of at least 10 days to recover, that would be 750,000 to 1,250,000 patient-days of quarantined care required.
Well, in Minnesota in 2017, there were approximately 500,000 to 600,000 patient-days of care over the year.”
This matters mainly if and when everyone gets the virus at once (which is what seems to be occurring in China).
This virus is probably here to stay and will probably mutate every year. Eventually, everyone will be exposed to it but, hopefully, for 80% it will be like a cold. For the rest, until a vaccine is developed, it’s best to choose precautions and take them.
For me, it’s a lot of nutritional supplementation, especially melatonin, vitamins D3 & C. I have only had four behavior-changing colds since I started taking melatonin in 1995. (Before that it was 2-3 a year). Sleep is necessary for the immune system and the body’s natural release of melatonin during sleep may well be part of that.
People will have to go back to work some time (except me as I’m retired).
the comment I am replying to (my own) was supposed to be a reply to@njbr
Note that this assumed the illnesses in 50% of the population occurred over a years worth of time.
That 1995 timing probably lines up with when you had caught pretty much all existing colds.
That said, I sure agree that sleep is the universal elixir.
“That 1995 timing probably lines up with when you had caught pretty much all existing colds.”
Possibly. I thought of that but the change seemed pretty sudden.
And you trust WHO numbers?
Yet somehow the stock market keeps going up as if everything is great. MWC was also cancelled today. At what point will the market price in the virus?
As long as the Fed and other central banks hold rates low and lower and keep providing daily operations to the repo market, the market can go higher. Also the debt interest is getting higher so expect rates to go lower sometime fairly soon. We are headed to 1% rates and lower by mid 2021.
They just use McAfee and are busy pricing in anything positive due in the next thousand years.
Maybe its already priced in. Maybe the bounce will be bigger than the drop.
As somebody (Carl?) commented yesterday, China has stopped counting asymptomatic cases with positive tests as confirmed. Either somebody thinks the tests are resulting in a lot of false positives, or they’ve decided that the CFR is vanishingly small. It would be irresponsible in the extreme to act in this manner otherwise – and China has a lot to lose.
The comments earlier today that stopping handshaking and kissing would be very effective at stopping the virus do not suggest a virus that is extremely adept at surviving outside of the body. And the English superspreaders victims (not that he has committed any crime, something that may elude readers of the Daily Mail) do not appear to have passed it on to anybody, including the frail elderly residents of a care home.
For the “outside China” cases diagnosed before 4th Feb, if we get to 22nd Feb without another death in that group, we have a CFR below 1.
Slightly unrelated topic, overheard on a train earlier, bunch of echo chamber inhabitants talking about Brexit, one of them said “Hahaha, let’s hope this virus is massive, maybe the Brexit gammons will finally realise they were lied to”. Universal agreement. It seems even thousands of deaths are acceptable in the pursuit of we told you so.
Just keep buying and watching your NETFLIX nothing to see here…..